SS sports models back to MSRP

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

TBH I'd feel that way if I was a Panerai lover...

Ouch.

[Calatrava r]

Used watch prices are determined solely by supply and demand. What will soften the aftermarket prices is a general softening of interest in Rolex watches resulting in more people to sell some or all of their holdings to the used market increasing supply there. This coupled with waning demand will cause the prices to fall. Used prices have traded over MSRP on several models in recent years because demand outpaces the supply of those models.

[panerai-lover111]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Anyone who thinks the grey market is going to disappear completely is living in a fantasy land. There is always going to be people who want to sell their watches, and as such, dealers will offer liquidity for this, and capitalise.

No one is saying that. Gray markets have been around since I started collecting 30+ years ago.

They just buy at market price and sell for 5%-10% margins if they can. Well that was traditionally how it was for 20+ years until the crazy hype started.

Anyway why are any of you complaining? These are just hobbies and its a wonderful thing that all these pieces are going back to MSRP or under. The only ppl who will be left are the true watch enthusiasts.

Its good that all these backpack flippers and hype is gone. Its not going to come back either just like sneakers have died off and never returned. Watches will follow.

Enjoy the watches for what they are, forget the investment side of it totally. There are so many better investments than watches.

For those that are interested Ive tried to recently sell a few pieces because I want to get into a perpetual calendar. The prices the gray dealers are offering for outright sale is horrendous. Even for hyped models which I was trying to sell.

Guess I'll just keep them in my collection now.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

I didn't say demand dropping is irrelevant - I said that you saying "look everyone I told you so" is irrelevant. My point was that nobody cares that you said it in 21/22.

Also your comment about those posting about "getting the call" and "incoming" etc... it's backwards to say demand is dropping to new lows, because if that was the case, people would not be buying at all and therefore not posting incoming posts. But they are...

Demand is there and it always will be, it's just not going to be at the heights that it was at the post covid peak. As for “investors” and “speculators” moving on, some are, some are not. That aspect will always exist, for as long as these items exchange for thousands of dollars and there is a market for people to liquidate them.

Anyone who thinks the grey market is going to disappear completely is living in a fantasy land. There is always going to be people who want to sell their watches, and as such, dealers will offer liquidity for this, and capitalise.

Ha! Okay…I don’t really care if you care, how about that? That said, you stated that “nobody cares”….have you polled the collective universe? You make a lot of guarantees.
People getting a call faster than they expected supports what I’m saying. Demand is dropping and so are prices. That’s just data….not an opinion.
As someone who works in finance and has watched many cycles, I have seen what happens when people in 2006 said there was no real estate bubble. I have watched the “dot bombs” of the late 90’s. My watches and cars are toys. Couldn’t care less about the value, but I know some people put a foolish amount of their net worth in these objects, so maybe my statements cause one or two people to think twice about paying $20,000 for a steel GMT.
Grey dealers will continue, but just as they did 20 years ago, they will sell
Lost at BELOW retail prices.
I’m sure you’re trying to preserve value in your collection, but let’s agree to disagree and move on. Good day and good luck

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Nads786

I don't think this is as much about how wealthy people are as about how long their interest will stay in watches. I think at some people everyone wakes up and realizes this is not an investment and I have a $100K in watches what am I doing put it in the market?

Or another thought is they realize they got into the hype sell their collection and move on to something else. It happens all the time with hobbies and investments hence you can buy golf clubs for 50% off.

The ones that remain are the true watch nuts. There are just too many better investment options out there.

Totally agree. Stocks and real estate are for investing. These are toys and should be purchased with disposable income.

[Mystro]

Not to be Mr. Big shot but watches are not investments but a quality of life accessory. If you can afford a Rolex (or any other luxury watch) in that proper context, you can comfortably afford to buy a Rolex regardless what its current price point is.
You are buying one simply because you want it and no justification beyond that is required.
Seriously, if the thought of your watch might be worth a few thousand dollars less in a few years occupies any of your thoughts then you might not be in the right place in time to be buying any luxury watch.

Rolex pretty much confirmed they will never ever let their watches sit in a display case like they did ten years ago with the factory “display models” they supply to their dealer network. Their dealer network also is using a different sales strategy and at that level won’t ever l lose the leverage they have with selling other jewelry by bundling. Rolex will absolutely insure this and so will the dealer network finish the end strategy. I don’t care what or how bad the market does, there will always be enough of those that can easily afford a Rolex to keep the exclusivity alive and well. The “ROLEX” brand itself transcends its image of excellence and success well beyond their watches to the general public. That is a “X” factor Rolex can’t be matched and guards and promotes it’s brand perception, better than any other product.
This is a highly controlled product from the top down unlike real estate or other booming market goods that one might compare it to.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Ha! Okay…I don’t really care if you care, how about that? That said, you stated that “nobody cares”….have you polled the collective universe? You make a lot of guarantees.
People getting a call faster than they expected supports what I’m saying. Demand is dropping and so are prices. That’s just data….not an opinion.
As someone who works in finance and has watched many cycles, I have seen what happens when people in 2006 said there was no real estate bubble. I have watched the “dot bombs” of the late 90’s. My watches and cars are toys. Couldn’t care less about the value, but I know some people put a foolish amount of their net worth in these objects, so maybe my statements cause one or two people to think twice about paying $20,000 for a steel GMT.
Grey dealers will continue, but just as they did 20 years ago, they will sell
Lost at BELOW retail prices.
I’m sure you’re trying to preserve value in your collection, but let’s agree to disagree and move on. Good day and good luck

I’m not trying to preserve value in anything, all my watches are bought at retail and quite frankly I don’t really care what the value is as they’ll never be sold. I work in finance myself and your same logic applies with cycles and things rotating back in the future. Especially for trophy assets, it’s happened for decades. May not be this year, may not be next, but I promise you, the watch market will boom again once more, just like the art market etc. and grey dealers (good ones) will continue to thrive.

I just don’t agree with the doom and gloomer approach, then coming back afterwards and saying “I told you soooo!” Like you’re a genius. None of this matters,
Enjoy your watches, as everyone should.

[Zach69SS]

Yes, ouch guys, can’t we all just get along?

[SLWoodster]

Already happening. If you refer to CPO pricing or very large grey dealer pricing then I don’t know because their markups are quite high. But this has already been happening for 6 months. In fact prices are even up a little bit since this past winter.

YM - all but titanium trade below retail + tax. That’s like 6 of them.

Submariner - all but the 3 stainless sell at or below retail + tax. Bluesy, black two tone, YG black YG blue all below.

Explorer I, II - 36, 40, black, white right at or around retail + tax. Two tone below.

GMT - yellow gold right at retail + tax, rose gold below. Rest are above.

Skydweller - some dealers don’t consider this line sport. I would call it at least semi sport esp after they threw a OF on there. white below retail + tax. All precious metal and oysterflex except for new blue and full gemset are below retail + tax

Daytona - most full bracelet precious metal Daytonas are trading at retail + tax. That’s like more than 12 of them. Two tone not far.

AK - below retail + tax

Originally Posted by WWC

Will we sooner than later see SS sports pieces back to retail prices?

The PM’s are seeing a drop with even some of the sports models going below retail? This begs the question whether one day we’ll be able to just walk into an AD and get a steel piece. Of course there’s gonna be exceptions to this with models such as the Daytona.

[Roddypeepa]

Possibly or close to it but agree that not all models. Have already seen a few SD43 and deepsea at or below retail, lightly used. Black dial explorer II same. Can’t see it happening for GMT and Daytona of course. To be honest, it’d be a better hobby for real enthusiasts if they were close to retail but just below for current production models. I’d welcome it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Not to be Mr. Big shot but watches are not investments but a quality of life accessory. If you can afford a Rolex (or any other luxury watch) in that proper context, you can comfortably afford to buy a Rolex regardless what its current price point is.
You are buying one simply because you want it and no justification beyond that is required.
Seriously, if the thought of your watch might be worth a few thousand dollars less in a few years occupies any of your thoughts then you might not be in the right place in time to be buying any luxury watch.

Rolex pretty much confirmed they will never ever let their watches sit in a display case like they did ten years ago with the factory “display models” they supply to their dealer network. Their dealer network also is using a different sales strategy and at that level won’t ever l lose the leverage they have with selling other jewelry by bundling. Rolex will absolutely insure this and so will the dealer network finish the end strategy. I don’t care what or how bad the market does, there will always be enough of those that can easily afford a Rolex to keep the exclusivity alive and well. The “ROLEX” brand itself transcends its image of excellence and success well beyond their watches to the general public. That is a “X” factor Rolex can’t be matched and guards and promotes it’s brand perception, better than any other product.
This is a highly controlled product from the top down unlike real estate or other booming market goods that one might compare it to.

"... who do you think you are??" Sorry, you got Mr Big Stuff stuck in my head

Anyway, I agree with your assessment and specifically that Rolex is going to control this to the best of their abilities in terms of never letting these things become a regular walk-in commodity again. I was listening to an RSC watchmaker on a podcast last week saying Rolex is looking to lower production. They expanded as needed and will contract in-kind. The other thing to keep in mind is they do this on a per-model basis. So sure, the OP36/41 aren't as hot as the GMT or Daytona, but Rolex cuts the supply back to a point where they are still nearly as exclusive. My AD told me annually they get less OP41s than other other steel model. I had to wait years to get one and was literally told a Sub would be easier at the time (a year ago).

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

"... who do you think you are??" Sorry, you got Mr Big Stuff stuck in my head

Anyway, I agree with your assessment and specifically that Rolex is going to control this to the best of their abilities in terms of never letting these things become a regular walk-in commodity again. I was listening to an RSC watchmaker on a podcast last week saying Rolex is looking to lower production. They expanded as needed and will contract in-kind. The other thing to keep in mind is they do this on a per-model basis. So sure, the OP36/41 aren't as hot as the GMT or Daytona, but Rolex cuts the supply back to a point where they are still nearly as exclusive. My AD told me annually they get less OP41s than other other steel model. I had to wait years to get one and was literally told a Sub would be easier at the time (a year ago).

It was either Mr Big shot or Mr. Fancy Pants. Both give away my age. I can see my “speak to text” function isn’t 100% accurate either but the core of what I was saying is still legible.

[bluestreak]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Also, I am a true capitalist, so I won’t fault the grey dealers for “capitalizing” on the market opportunity, but as a collector, they are absolutely the problem. You say they facilitate demand, but that same demand would be facilitated by the AD at retail price if the grey dealers weren’t gobbling them all up and selling at a mark-up.

This is not how supply and demand or economics work. At all.

[dubins930]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

"... who do you think you are??" Sorry, you got Mr Big Stuff stuck in my head

Anyway, I agree with your assessment and specifically that Rolex is going to control this to the best of their abilities in terms of never letting these things become a regular walk-in commodity again. I was listening to an RSC watchmaker on a podcast last week saying Rolex is looking to lower production. They expanded as needed and will contract in-kind. The other thing to keep in mind is they do this on a per-model basis. So sure, the OP36/41 aren't as hot as the GMT or Daytona, but Rolex cuts the supply back to a point where they are still nearly as exclusive. My AD told me annually they get less OP41s than other other steel model. I had to wait years to get one and was literally told a Sub would be easier at the time (a year ago).

They are building new watchmaking facilities to lower production?

[kopi-c]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I have always maintained that this is a blip caused by a perfect storm of a global pandemic, supply shortage and increased liquidity. People on here argued and laughed at me in 2021-2022 when I said it was temporary, but it is !
The only way that Rolex retail shortage continues in perpetuity is if Rolex manufacturers fewer watches, because there is no doubt a drop in demand.
Additionally, I have also maintained that paying even 1 penny over retail for a currently manufactured watch is foolish, unless you don’t mind throwing away money due to lack of patience.
No offense to forum sponsors, but I am looking forward to grey market disappearing! I’m amazed that many of these grey market dealers who sell brand new watches at far over retail are held in high regard. They are the problem! I’m all for a good second hand dealer, but looking at websites with page after page of brand new watches at a 100% markup, while a guy who wants to get a special watch to mark an occasion or as a gift, is left out in the cold…..is frustrating.
Personally, looking forward to getting back to enthusiasts and collectors, and leaving speculators behind. Sorry to rant.

This.

It was a time people went to second hand watch dealers for a discount below msrp. To each of their own who wants to pay over the asking price nowadays.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

. None of this matters,
Enjoy your watches, as everyone should.

Right….then why would you take time reading and responding to a thread where this is the topic of discussion??
People are wild.

[1William]

Interesting discussion and many points I can agree with and disagree with. The first and most important is "Watches are an Investment" if I want to allocate my money to them in that manner. The better discussion is are watches a good investment for those who choose to allocate their money that way. The watch market has so little verifiable data from all types of sellers that most of our assumptions are just that. We as enthusiasts do a great job of piecing that information together and making reasonable conclusion based on what we have. But it is not supported by conclusive data. The watch market will march on and will ride the wave of ups and downs. Some significant, others not so much. In the end, everything is more expensive.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

No one is saying that. Gray markets have been around since I started collecting 30+ years ago.

They just buy at market price and sell for 5%-10% margins if they can. Well that was traditionally how it was for 20+ years until the crazy hype started.

Anyway why are any of you complaining? These are just hobbies and its a wonderful thing that all these pieces are going back to MSRP or under. The only ppl who will be left are the true watch enthusiasts.

Its good that all these backpack flippers and hype is gone. Its not going to come back either just like sneakers have died off and never returned. Watches will follow.

Enjoy the watches for what they are, forget the investment side of it totally. There are so many better investments than watches.

For those that are interested Ive tried to recently sell a few pieces because I want to get into a perpetual calendar. The prices the gray dealers are offering for outright sale is horrendous. Even for hyped models which I was trying to sell.

Guess I'll just keep them in my collection now.

Totally agree. The “grey” market, in its normal state, are independent businesses who are not authorized dealers, thus they sell newer models at a discount. That has always been the case until recent years. The fact that the spread between buy and sell is widening, is further data to support the market softening.
Too many people have money invested in these that they plan/need to get a return on, and they like to act like it’s business as usual.
Good idea sitting tight for now….👍

[WastedYears]

I've been told that CHF 9'000 will get you a brand new 124060 in Hong Kong.

That's what I am selling my 3yo Sub for here in Switzerland and it wasn't easy finding a buyer.