ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
3 January 2019, 07:53 AM | #91 |
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3 January 2019, 08:07 AM | #92 | |
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3 January 2019, 10:00 AM | #93 | |
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just like the Bordeaux wine craze and how the Chinese blew that bubble sky high, and then like all bubbles, prices crashed; to wit: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/red_obsession_2013/ |
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3 January 2019, 10:03 AM | #94 | |
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w/ rumoros of a nautilus chrono refresh this year, the 5980/1A [w/ black dial which tended to be lower priced than the regular blue, in some instanced priced in excess of $100k lol] will imnsho correct pretty sharply at some point. again, i am patient and am not "passionate" or obsessed enough to need it right away or even any time soon. this is just part of my research and i chimed in a bit here. thx. ps and maybe it's a coincidence that over that last few days there are 2 separate threads here in PP invoking Minksy Moment and Bubble, but that says something to a newb like me. pps when the 5980/1A caught my eye, i had no idea of pricing or anything else about it; of course, i knew PP as an ultra high quality brand, but that was about it. my gf says it looks dated and like something American Psycho would wear, and i agreed with her, except that the chrono feature makes it a bit more modern and utilitarian such that i can time all the horrible things i can do to her... |
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3 January 2019, 05:34 PM | #95 | |
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Asking prices are one thing yet 5711s listed too much over $50K aren't moving anymore but the ones in the upper 40s are. This indicates prices have already peaked. |
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3 January 2019, 05:53 PM | #96 | |
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What I meant was that one can assign a percentage probability to any particular outcome under analysis. This is what quant traders do, among other things. Getting the percentage correct, or near correct is how they make money. Anybody claiming that they "know" what will happen in a particular market is not telling the truth. Believing is one thing, and knowing is another. |
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3 January 2019, 11:26 PM | #97 |
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I just performed three searches at Chrono24 using the following search terms; "white dial 5711," "blue dial 5711," and out of curiosity "15202st." Here are the results:
white dial 5711 = 53 watches currently listed blue dial 5711 = 88 watches currently listed 15202st = 51 watches currently listed (blue date wheel only)
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4 January 2019, 12:25 AM | #98 | |
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I do think Patek do make more 5711 than AP makes 15202's though because the AP doesnt have the same crazy demand and that one is more artificial low supply vs the huge 5711 demand. If AP called it a 40mm watch, demand would shoot up alot. It wears bigger than a 5711 IMO
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4 January 2019, 12:36 AM | #99 | |
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4 January 2019, 02:00 AM | #100 |
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prices are under 50k
If you look at the famous resell auction site and look at sold prices and asking prices, you will see the avg selling price these days is approx 45k, with blue higher than white.
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4 January 2019, 02:08 AM | #101 |
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correction, blue are in the mid 50s, white the mid 40s
asking price
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4 January 2019, 02:11 AM | #102 |
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Yep, so I imagine blue dials would move pretty fast if the asking was closer to $45,000.
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4 January 2019, 04:43 AM | #103 | |
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4 January 2019, 04:44 AM | #104 | |
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0% is clearly wrong, it's got to be a non-zero probability based on what we've seen so far. |
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4 January 2019, 04:58 AM | #105 | |
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who knows when this patek sport bubble blows, but blow it certainly will given the current lol premiums over msrp. this is what happens when crazy neo-keynesian ivory tower econ phd's that ran the fed with zero private sector experience (bernanke and yellen) were in charge. Powell is raising into another crash, just like every time before. you can see the charts of tech bubble and housing bubble with similar low interest pumps, rate increases and consequent dumps. it's not mere coincidences, since 1913. skoooooch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uo14xGYwWd4 Trump on the horn with The Plunge Protection Team all morning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workin...ancial_Markets |
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4 January 2019, 05:10 AM | #106 |
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One very interesting thing I've just found out is that the 16610LV (Kermit) is offered for between £15k and £40k, with several over £30k.
If (if) a Kermit is worth, say £30k, then a £100k 5712 is looking very possible. |
4 January 2019, 05:11 AM | #107 |
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Economics cannot be completely interpreted, there are different economic models and it's not a science which can be practically demonstrated in some cases. Anyone claiming that they know which way things are heading is merely speculating. Its only advisable to know the degree of point in the prediction. For me, i say take what the market gives you if you can afford it at the moment.
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4 January 2019, 05:26 AM | #108 | |
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I'm not saying a 5712 wont hit 100k sterling. However, if buyers aren't picking them up at the mid 50k sterling mark, unless PP suddenly discontinues them, I don't see why they would for 100k. |
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4 January 2019, 05:38 AM | #109 | |
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How do you know nothing is selling, btw? Are you following every ad? |
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4 January 2019, 05:38 AM | #110 | |
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4 January 2019, 05:41 AM | #111 |
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PT Barnum was so right. "Worth" in the midst of the biggest bubble possibly in the history of mankind is a tricky word to quantify.
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4 January 2019, 05:43 AM | #112 | |
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i'd say they go below msrp w/in 12mos w/ a 60% chance. |
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4 January 2019, 05:43 AM | #113 |
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I'm not denying we are living in strange times with watch prices, just commenting.
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4 January 2019, 05:45 AM | #114 | |
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<rubs hands> |
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4 January 2019, 05:48 AM | #115 |
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4 January 2019, 05:51 AM | #116 |
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Oh, I don't mind losing, it's just for fun. And I don't have a dog in the race in that my PPs are both keepers.
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4 January 2019, 05:59 AM | #117 | |
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No, I don’t see every ad. However, anecdotally, I’ve got about 20 U.S. based flat fours saved in my Chrono. None have moved in a year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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4 January 2019, 06:00 AM | #118 | |
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Agreed. If they're not selling for mid $50k, but are for mid $40k, unless PP lowers production or discontinues the models, I don't see prices increasing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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4 January 2019, 06:19 AM | #119 |
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4 January 2019, 06:19 AM | #120 |
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FWIW WF sold a 5712 @ nearly £45k ($57000) two days ago. I know because it disappeared and they emailed me several times to try to get mine i refused to sell them after a lowball. So these pieces are moving at these prices.... and now they don't have one
I think the 5711's are moving too.... slowly but at a true market price they don't move lightning fast. I still think the upward price momentum has got to be sowing though.
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