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21 February 2020, 02:43 PM | #91 |
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I wonder how wealthy the typical grey market/second-hand buyer of 5711, 5168g-010, or 5164a etc is. - to spend $60-80K on a current production patek sports watch?
(I would definitely put rolex steal at 5k-10K premiums in a complete different league - i can imagine many people can justify those) |
21 February 2020, 02:46 PM | #92 |
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Anecdotally from flippers - market is a lot softer now than December.
Once you can't walk out of an AD and double your money, they'll start calling down waiting lists and have a lot of people declining (not to mention the dreamers), then I think we'll be back to reasonable wait times at least on Subs and maybe GMTs. |
21 February 2020, 02:53 PM | #93 | |
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21 February 2020, 07:33 PM | #94 |
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Lets not even mention bubble again never.
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21 February 2020, 07:39 PM | #95 |
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21 February 2020, 07:40 PM | #96 |
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Perhaps. But you do end up with two watches that way, unless you despise the 5524.
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21 February 2020, 08:02 PM | #97 | |
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If you net the market prices of those two watches... Well, you get the drift... |
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21 February 2020, 10:27 PM | #98 |
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Bubbles are typically defined after the fact - e.g., after some event causes deflation.
Otherwise, what some call a bubble just resembles a hockey stick in terms of the “new normal”. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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22 February 2020, 12:32 AM | #99 | |
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22 February 2020, 07:40 AM | #100 |
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23 February 2020, 10:56 AM | #101 |
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Lange (Lange 1) if you bought used 2 years ago. The price has risen by 10-20%.
It performs better than most Patek dress watches ( calatrava or world time ). |
23 February 2020, 10:59 AM | #102 | |
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But none of the other more complicated ones. You can still get a Dato for an incredibly low price. |
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23 February 2020, 06:23 PM | #103 |
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I wondering if people thought they were in the middle of a real estate bubble prior 2007?
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23 February 2020, 06:34 PM | #104 |
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The bubble burst if there is no core value , just inflated price. Goods value much higher than the value of cash.
Today everything is so expensive, the government all over the world printing huge sums of money. This makes money worthless. Today the cash value is much less than the goods. If you know what I mean. Its the opposite of bubble. |
23 February 2020, 06:36 PM | #105 |
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23 February 2020, 06:53 PM | #106 |
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In 2008 - 2009 it was mainly the corporation that pushes the debt over the limit. Anyone can borrow to buy a home regardless of their income
Today the amount you can borrow to buy real estate is tied to how much income tax you have paid. Not how much asset you can provide to the bank. Which is somewhat looks much healthier. However another equation is Government seems over spending and continue to do so. And when they can not meet obligations , they print more money which cause prices to increase, some people see it as bubble. Will it burst? As long as government all over the world still prints money to finance their obligations I see price will likely keep on increasing. Look at stock price of companies that barely make profit, they skyrocket. Look at price of foods , electricty, gas they skyrocket. Infact today if any basic commodities price that do not increase it means it has been manipulated. Is there alternatives? Well no, we can only hope price not to rise too fast. But it will keep on rising. But price rising (real estate, stock market , commodities) is not due to optimism or someone with some speculative plan to rig the price up. It is purely because governments around the world over spending and printing money. Especially China expansion with their Belt Road initiative and also European Union plan to create great European single market to challenge USA or China dominance ; USA plan to put America as priority makes America Great Again, revitalise their ailing industry; all these honourable goals seem requires endless amount of money which not available and so it will largely financed through printing money. With UK going out of single European market, means Germany and France have to pump in more cash which I don’t think they have any. So they will print more money to prevent single European market from collapsing. As long as governments continue printing money, every thing will be more expensive, real estate , stock market, commodities, luxury watches prices all will rise even you have recessions or depressions. Company may bankrupt, massive layoff and economic collapse but price will still rise no matter what happens. |
23 February 2020, 11:52 PM | #107 |
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If you want to hedge inflation there are much better ways than wristwatches.
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24 February 2020, 06:25 AM | #108 |
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24 February 2020, 06:24 PM | #109 |
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24 February 2020, 07:46 PM | #110 |
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24 February 2020, 10:13 PM | #111 |
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REITS , TIPS, reinvesting dividends and other capital immediately, honestly hedging inflation with almost anything more stable than jewelry would be better. Far too much unsystematic risk using watches as an instrument for investment. Brokering watch sales in one thing. Buying with the intent to capture gains is a whole different idea and a silly one.
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25 February 2020, 12:13 AM | #112 |
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If the coronavirus takes down the global economy (as seems likely) and world markets drop by more than a simple correction (as also seems likely, particularly in the U.S.) we will see whether certain stainless steel sportwatches are a storehouse of value or are in a bubble (my guess is the latter).
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25 February 2020, 03:00 AM | #113 | |
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Agreed. Interestingly, there are small signs of price decreases on PP Rolex SS on C24, and they don’t seem to be moving. Quite a few 116500 (black dial) at $20k, and they’re not moving. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 February 2020, 03:12 AM | #114 |
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The fact that it’s even debated that watches are a quality store of value at 1.5-2x msrp is hilarious.
I can only imagine the panic selling that’s occurring today. I would bet DavidSW, WatchBox, Watchfinder, European watch etc inboxes are jammed with people offering to sell stuff they overpaid for. The only question I have is are they buying, if so what and at what price.
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25 February 2020, 03:19 AM | #115 | |
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25 February 2020, 03:36 AM | #116 |
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If anyone bought at the then high price levels in 2018 for SS “high demand” models - and socked them away for future gain - then they might sell off a few Daytonas below the 2020 market price and still make money.
That would make it appear like a softening market methinks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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25 February 2020, 07:23 AM | #117 | |
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25 February 2020, 07:29 AM | #118 |
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There's one at $20K, next lowest is $20,845 no B+P.
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25 February 2020, 07:32 AM | #119 | |
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I was merely naming instruments that are more suited to the job than buying rolex. I’m not saying they are appropriate for every situation. My personal go to would be real estate but not everyone is up for the second job that is being a landlord.
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25 February 2020, 07:34 AM | #120 | |
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