Expect even lower supply!

[calishine]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

+1

+2

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia
-2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000.
- 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers.
And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity.

Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those.
Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age.

This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc.

Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We

This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario.

Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ...

Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ...

I agree with you 110%. You could’ve left the very last paragraph out and made your point clearly. With that statement you really devalued your whole post. I’m not a huge fan of the grays either, even when they were giving discounts I felt the ones I dealt with were shady.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia
-2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000.
- 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers.
And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity.

Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those.
Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age.

This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc.

Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We

This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario.

Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ...

Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ...

Well said!

[Cesium137]

Originally Posted by Claven2

LOL. Nice try at stimulating sales.

What will really happen - lots of leveraged people will see that Rolex on their wrist as a safety net to make rent/mortgage/car payments.

Not too many people will pay over $15K for a pepsi when the exchange forum may see upwards of 50 of them listed use under $10k, in like-new shape.

Expect a boom in used watch sales on the forum within about 3 weeks or so. Very sad, but very true.

Originally Posted by aurenas

Poor market speculation attempt

Exactly x2

[LigerBelair]

Originally Posted by LAREALTOR

With Rolex being shut down now, according to my AD today he wouldn't be surprised if Rolex is out of production for months. If you think it was bad already we haven't seen anything yet.

That's what I'd expect anyone hoping to make another sale before lockdown would say.

[LigerBelair]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I agree with you 110%. You could’ve left the very last paragraph out and made your point clearly. With that statement you really devalued your whole post. I’m not a huge fan of the grays either, even when they were giving discounts I felt the ones I dealt with were shady.

Stating the obvious - that grey dealers are in dire straits (his statement was more eloquent) - doesn't devalue his commentary one whit.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

No one believed Michael Burry either until it was too late. I think it's just human nature though to anchor to the old economy and philosophy and mistake structural changes for cyclical changes. We'll see how basket products continue to contribute to VIX as well and if we need global programs to purchase these instead of the stat quo QE.

I agree, many have a lot more to worry about than a Rolex right now and I hope health and prosperity in their recovery.

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

This virus is going to exceed that by a long shot, the virus is spreading with exponential growth.

Not even close. This virus may kill 9 million total people over a span of years but starvation kills roughly 9 million yearly. By that time there will be a new virus to worry about. This isn't the early 1900's. Advanced medicine and technology will dominate this thing in due time.

[Flying Doctor]

Wow! Some interesting views on this. Lets get a few things clear:

1) The clue is in the name that I might know a bit about this....
2) If you think this is going away today, tomorrow, this month or next month you are utterly deluded. This is here for 6 months at the very best. And I truly mean that.
3) Italy is a snapshot of what is coming. It is beyond indescribable. Poo-poo it at your very peril. Not just for you but those around out, especially anyone over the age of 60.....
4) This is nasty. It is random. Young people can be taken out with this - not everyone dying is 70+.
5) This virus does not understand wealth or anything else. We don't know why for most its mild and for others it is fatal....
6) We have to god hope this thing cannot mutate quickly. Coronavirus' are known to mutate. If it can do that then even the so called holy grail of a vaccine will not work and will need constant updating much like Flu vaccines.

Disagree with me if you will. That is of course your prerogative but mark my words - this is going to be like no period medically I have ever, ever seen and is only paralleled with Spanish Flu........

And no, this is not a rant. These are simply the facts. For those of us in the UK it is starting to bite. For those on the other side of the Atlantic it will be a week later......

FD.

[RolexRoll]

This shortage has always been a manufactured one with everyone playing along. Rolex, AD’s and grey market working together to get money. Don’t be surprised if you start getting calls 3rd quarter and beyond with AD’s being nice all the sudden.

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by richard371

Also with this being a health crisis the Apple watch is proving more useful than ever. I wear mine 24/7 to track my activity, stress (heart rate pattered), sleep notifications when working remote etc. You could not give me another Rolex right now.

Get outta here

[Jim]

Originally Posted by Flying Doctor

Wow! Some interesting views on this. Lets get a few things clear:

5) This virus does not understand wealth or anything else. We don't know why for most its mild and for others it is fatal....

FD.

It's balance of nature and population control. In a world with negative environmental and economic outcomes ranging from the impacts of over-farming, deforestation, and water pollution to eutrophication and global warming it is inevitable that new disease will emerge under such conditions. Even David Attenborough warned if humans do not act soon, the natural world will do something, although referring to the famine in Ethiopia “too many people for too little piece of land” can be applied everywhere.

In my lifetime the worlds population has more than doubled. What effect is this enormous burgeoning population having on the world?

Perhaps it's a case of survival of the fittest......being a term made famous by naturalist Charles Darwin, which suggested that organisms best adjusted to their environment are the most successful in surviving and reproducing.

[Roli4life]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

No more CNN for this man

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by Flying Doctor

Wow! Some interesting views on this. Lets get a few things clear:

1) The clue is in the name that I might know a bit about this....
2) If you think this is going away today, tomorrow, this month or next month you are utterly deluded. This is here for 6 months at the very best. And I truly mean that.
3) Italy is a snapshot of what is coming. It is beyond indescribable. Poo-poo it at your very peril. Not just for you but those around out, especially anyone over the age of 60.....
4) This is nasty. It is random. Young people can be taken out with this - not everyone dying is 70+.
5) This virus does not understand wealth or anything else. We don't know why for most its mild and for others it is fatal....
6) We have to god hope this thing cannot mutate quickly. Coronavirus' are known to mutate. If it can do that then even the so called holy grail of a vaccine will not work and will need constant updating much like Flu vaccines.

Disagree with me if you will. That is of course your prerogative but mark my words - this is going to be like no period medically I have ever, ever seen and is only paralleled with Spanish Flu........

And no, this is not a rant. These are simply the facts. For those of us in the UK it is starting to bite. For those on the other side of the Atlantic it will be a week later......

FD.

what type of doctor/expertise? not to be flippant, but some specialities would be much more qualified to speak on this than others. For example, an immunologist who studies infectious diseases, like Dr. Fauci, would be much more qualified than say, a cardiologist or ENT.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Flying Doctor

Wow! Some interesting views on this. Lets get a few things clear:

1) The clue is in the name that I might know a bit about this....
2) If you think this is going away today, tomorrow, this month or next month you are utterly deluded. This is here for 6 months at the very best. And I truly mean that.
3) Italy is a snapshot of what is coming. It is beyond indescribable. Poo-poo it at your very peril. Not just for you but those around out, especially anyone over the age of 60.....
4) This is nasty. It is random. Young people can be taken out with this - not everyone dying is 70+.
5) This virus does not understand wealth or anything else. We don't know why for most its mild and for others it is fatal....
6) We have to god hope this thing cannot mutate quickly. Coronavirus' are known to mutate. If it can do that then even the so called holy grail of a vaccine will not work and will need constant updating much like Flu vaccines.

Disagree with me if you will. That is of course your prerogative but mark my words - this is going to be like no period medically I have ever, ever seen and is only paralleled with Spanish Flu........

And no, this is not a rant. These are simply the facts. For those of us in the UK it is starting to bite. For those on the other side of the Atlantic it will be a week later......

FD.

People just don’t get it. Every economic downturn people want to wear blinders for months. What sucks is this downturn is paired with a deadly virus and they’re still wearing blinders which makes it exponentially worse.

[Homo Sapien X]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Hulk and Batman are too weak to help


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[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

what type of doctor/expertise? not to be flippant, but some specialities would be much more qualified to speak on this than others. For example, an immunologist who studies infectious diseases, like Dr. Fauci, would be much more qualified than say, a cardiologist or ENT.

Any type of medical doctor would be more qualified to offer an opinion IMHO than 99% of the rest of us, myself included.


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[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Roli4life

No more CNN for this man

+1

If I could put out a public service message to the globe it would be to turn off your TV and stop reading any negative piece/opinion out there. Getting news and facts has become an exhausting pursuit.


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[mstauqir]

I understand your AD sells watches and may not be a globalist. We are staring at a recession and half the EU countries are at a complete halt. Who the hell is buying rite now..?

My guess is grey is going to continue to get softer..

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by Homo Sapien X

Hulk and Batman are too weak to help


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[SpeakWithMichael]

I don't believe for half a second that China has or is reporting true and accurate confirmed cases and death toll numbers to the outside world. Insider reports are calculating over 1 million confirmed cases and upwards of 50,000 dead in China alone. With their lack of sanitary practices and such, I wouldn't be at all surprised. There is no way China doesn't have at least 5-10x the factual numbers coming out of Italy. They were the first to get hit and hit hard, it stands to reason global governments know the real capacity of this thing when not controlled thanks to what they aren't reporting about China's lack of reporting.

Italy's population: 60 million
China's population: Italy x 23 (1.4 billion)

Italy's confirmed cases: 47,021
China's "confirmed cases": 81,008

Italy's death toll: 4032
China's "death toll": 3255

You tell me how those numbers are statistically possible. Also, all of Russia has 235 cases and 1 death, so either Russia has a Covid Hamsterdam (*cough*2036*cough*) or vodka is both the vaccine and the cure.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by SpeakWithMichael

I don't believe for half a second that China has or is reporting true and accurate confirmed cases and death toll numbers to the outside world. Insider reports are calculating over 1 million confirmed cases and upwards of 50,000 dead in China alone. With their lack of sanitary practices and such, I wouldn't be at all surprised. There is no way China doesn't have at least 5-10x the factual numbers coming out of Italy. They were the first to get hit and hit hard, it stands to reason global governments know the real capacity of this thing when not controlled thanks to what they aren't reporting about China's lack of reporting.

Italy's population: 60 million
China's population: Italy x 23 (1.4 billion)

Italy's confirmed cases: 47,021
China's "confirmed cases": 81,008

Italy's death toll: 4032
China's "death toll": 3255

You tell me how those numbers are statistically possible. Also, all of Russia has 235 cases and 1 death, so either Russia has a Covid Hamsterdam (*cough*2036*cough*) or vodka is both the vaccine and the cure.

It’s the difference between democracies with freedom of movement and individual liberties versus dictatorships who can “cram down“ a result, like forcible removal and quarantining of citizens.


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[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by SpeakWithMichael

I don't believe for half a second that China has or is reporting true and accurate confirmed cases and death toll numbers to the outside world. Insider reports are calculating over 1 million confirmed cases and upwards of 50,000 dead in China alone. With their lack of sanitary practices and such, I wouldn't be at all surprised. There is no way China doesn't have at least 5-10x the factual numbers coming out of Italy. They were the first to get hit and hit hard, it stands to reason global governments know the real capacity of this thing when not controlled thanks to what they aren't reporting about China's lack of reporting.

Italy's population: 60 million
China's population: Italy x 23 (1.4 billion)

Italy's confirmed cases: 47,021
China's "confirmed cases": 81,008

Italy's death toll: 4032
China's "death toll": 3255

You tell me how those numbers are statistically possible. Also, all of Russia has 235 cases and 1 death, so either Russia has a Covid Hamsterdam (*cough*2036*cough*) or vodka is both the vaccine and the cure.

CNBC:
“The mayor of the most badly affected city, Bergamo in Lombardy, said the true number of fatalities in his area was four times higher than what was officially reported, Reuters said.

Italy's health ministry said that new restrictions include closure of all parks, and people can only exercise around their residences. Authorities were frustrated that people were still out and about despite appeals for them to stay indoors, according to reports.”

In China, they dictate and people follow. That’s allowed them to flatten the curve and drop to no local infections reported for the 3rd day in a row.


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[Rolex-istanbul]

people, the old world as we know is over.
This is an event which changes governments,people and way of life.
When huge numbers of people lost their jobs and dead is outside bealive me governments will collapse.
These are the official numbers, reality is much more worst. I am in Europe. Ambulances every where, army every where and markets no stock.
The aid of government will not last 6 months they have that money even if they have the money will not buy anything at all.
For me i am going to my village home. and self isolate myself.
and mark my words, Americans is more in danger than Italians. In Italy elder people not more than America. And American elder people has serious health issues over weight. God saves us all. We are on this shit all together.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by SpeakWithMichael

I don't believe for half a second that China has or is reporting true and accurate confirmed cases and death toll numbers to the outside world. Insider reports are calculating over 1 million confirmed cases and upwards of 50,000 dead in China alone. With their lack of sanitary practices and such, I wouldn't be at all surprised. There is no way China doesn't have at least 5-10x the factual numbers coming out of Italy. They were the first to get hit and hit hard, it stands to reason global governments know the real capacity of this thing when not controlled thanks to what they aren't reporting about China's lack of reporting.

Italy's population: 60 million
China's population: Italy x 23 (1.4 billion)

Italy's confirmed cases: 47,021
China's "confirmed cases": 81,008

Italy's death toll: 4032
China's "death toll": 3255

You tell me how those numbers are statistically possible. Also, all of Russia has 235 cases and 1 death, so either Russia has a Covid Hamsterdam (*cough*2036*cough*) or vodka is both the vaccine and the cure.

Well there is more to consider here with Italy’s average median age being signifanctly higher than China’s (47 vs 37). Plus there’s Italy’s broken healthcare system which is just inundated and on the brink of collapse. If you’re over the age of 60 with the virus in Italy, good luck to you.

China on the other hand built several large temporary hospitals. Italy didn’t.

The two can’t simply be compared by looking at reported numbers. Italy has a higher death rate for a reason. That reason is why the west should be worried. Years of underspend on the healthcare systems throughout Europe and the US will come back to bite.

Stay indoors folks.

[Gary Busey]

Hahahaha wow. What a disconnected statement. Here’s what will happen: the grey won’t be able to unload anything and Rolex will be so jammed with supply
It’s not even funny. Markets are down 35-50+% depending on where you are and we are dealing with a pandemic. Yeah gonna be real hard to find a Rolex Lololol

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Gary Busey

Hahahaha wow. What a disconnected statement. Here’s what will happen: the grey won’t be able to unload anything and Rolex will be so jammed with supply
It’s not even funny. Markets are down 35-50+% depending on where you are and we are dealing with a pandemic. Yeah gonna be real hard to find a Rolex Lololol

Absolutely. You get it!

[Gary Busey]

We will get out of this. My colleagues in Singapore are returning to more normal life. Italy is bad yes, but EU populations are old, so this is somewhat expected. Population densities there are a different ballgame vs here. The economic downturn was triggered by COVID. We did deserve a correction anyway. The bleakness I see amongs trader colleagues and the especially useless economists and analysts suggests we are not awfully far from seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. It May be a pinholed sized light beam but I think we’ll see it sooner rather than later.

Rolex will take a lot longer to recover

[AJMarcus]

I’m waiting for the gray dealers to move their inventory back up with some real liquidation sales. That will be the first sign of the economic pressure in the watch industry. So far I haven’t seen it.

Rolex, however, will always survive. Hans survived WWII by selling watches on credit to Allied soldiers in German POW camps. They will make it through this downturn as well.

[Gary Busey]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

I’m waiting for the gray dealers to move their inventory back up with some real liquidation sales. That will be the first sign of the Economy in the watch industry. So far I haven’t seen it.

Head in the sand. They will react with a bit of lag. It’s coming.

Maybe keep an eye on the absurd 911 turbo market as well. That’s gonna blow up