When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

[Zsprings]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?

Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!

[colonelpurple]

Originally Posted by Ceriano

Highly doubt it. They have a hard time selling their PM models at msrp with the current production rate. Imagine they make +1M high end pieces, they’d be sitting on pile of inventory. Rolex is geared towards upper middle class. Very few can shell out $100k+ for a watch.

Rolex will keep demand > supply by either pushing up prices or restricting supply. It is a private company, they can do whatever they want.

They will also try to up the focus on bi-metal and precious metal, where there is far more margin.

I read an interview with the had of Patek. He said they didn't make money from selling SS models. They only keep a few around for fans, but otherwise everything is going to precious metal. Obviously they are tiny compared to Rolex, but the sentiment is the same. The main difference is that Rolex sells enough watches to keep a margin for SS, and also knowing they are buoyed by enthusiasts who mostly like SS watches.

[DVR4]

Grey dealer I have used before is charging 80-85% over retail for SS models of interest.
That is today. So, either they haven't bottomed or he didn't get the memo.

[soxfan39]

Originally Posted by Zsprings

Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!

No, actually it wouldn't be great because that would ultimately drive down prices. If Rolex is smart they will limit supply based on demand to keep prices and brand VALUE high.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by soxfan39

No, actually it wouldn't be great because that would ultimately drive down prices. If Rolex is smart they will limit supply based on demand to keep prices and brand VALUE high.

This, like Panerai didn’t do.

[SudiYunus]

Originally Posted by Zsprings

Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!

[Speedsleev]

Everyone keeps making comments about the Rolex market being tanked. Where, I’ll step up for any subs, GMT’S etc. for these rock bottom tanked prices that I don’t see anywhere. Sure, it’s not like it was when it was looney land but nothing is and that was a rare wild time that shouldn’t have happened.

[TickTockChuck]

You might want to read this article if you want to get a feel for the pulse of the Swiss Watch industry:
https://monochrome-watches.com/fhs-r...illion-francs/

Basically they had a pretty good year overall, however growth has slowed towards the end of the year. 2024 is expected to have some growth, albeit at a more modest pace due geopolitical and economic factors.

Interestingly the secondary market prices are declining, so maybe some normalization & balance ahead after so much hype, see following excerpt:

"An interesting barometer of the market dynamics, the secondary prices continue to contract. In this respect, Morgan Stanley reports that these were down 13% for 2023, compared to a decline of -9% in 2022 and an increase of +39% in 2021."

Cheers!

[JC316]

Discounts in the not too distant future.

Let's go!

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by Speedsleev

Everyone keeps making comments about the Rolex market being tanked. Where, I’ll step up for any subs, GMT’S etc. for these rock bottom tanked prices that I don’t see anywhere. Sure, it’s not like it was when it was looney land but nothing is and that was a rare wild time that shouldn’t have happened.

I am just a casual observer of current prices, but did get into Moda to see "real" prices. I am similarly amazed at how if I go to the DSW or Than website, I see prices that for the most part are still way up there. Like SS Daytonas for mid 30s. But if I notice Moda prices for the same models, they are more like low to mid 20s. I guess my point is that gray advertised prices seem somewhat disconnected from the "real" market prices that watches are fetching these days.

[rushca01]

Whatever prices are in “moda” is vapor ware to me…I can’t get in nor even find the right “moda” group. So whatever pieces sell for there is irrelevant as buying at the AD, I can’t do either.

[Mystro]

Moda is like going to a car auction.. Yea, you can find some stupid low prices on a super car but that doesn’t translate in to what the average market price really is at a dealership or even a private seller. There will always been rock bottom deal sniffers but very few of these bargains hunters are actually buying these deals they like to say is what the market price is.
In a way it’s used to influence the “idea” that these are the true market prices of what you should “expect” to pay for these cars or watches but it’s the difference between whole sale pricing and retail pricing. When you get a clone, rock, or watch with a story to save a few bucks is when reality hits hard.
Your BigMac only cost 41 cents to actually make so you’re a sucker to pay the $4. I’ll just hang outside McDonald’s and wait for a employee to sell me one out the back door for $2.

[GGGMT]

Moda


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[Kevin of Larchmont]

As long as DSW and Than and other greys are selling watches at the prices they are advertising then their prices are “real”.

[jfmiii]

Moda is like "wholesale plus." Not retail but not quite wholesale. To people saying it is a clown show in there, it isn't, by and large. I see many of the same TS on TRF selling into Moda. I've seen the same watch listed here and Moda by sellers. The price on Moda is always more attractive. The fact of the matter is, if you call a TS and ask for a watch that they dont have, they are likely going to ask for that watch in a chat that includes a bunch of sellers on Moda. It's like anything else...if you buy on Moda, do your due diligence on the seller but you are likely to pay much less than if buying from a guy like DSW.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

I am just a casual observer of current prices, but did get into Moda to see "real" prices. I am similarly amazed at how if I go to the DSW or Than website, I see prices that for the most part are still way up there. Like SS Daytonas for mid 30s. But if I notice Moda prices for the same models, they are more like low to mid 20s. I guess my point is that gray advertised prices seem somewhat disconnected from the "real" market prices that watches are fetching these days.

They are still trying to maximize profits. Especially from those that are willing to sell at market lows. It used to be that the margins were actually quite thin so they had to move a lot of volume. The last few years changed that in my opinion and they are trying to hang on to it for as long as they can until people figure it out.

[enjoythemusic]

We'll probably hit bottom when Trolling gets even more prevalent here on TRF. It's seems we're getting close, yet note quite there yet imho.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I didn’t know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.

They don't follow a "seasonal" trading range like some equities do, but in fairness, watches' market prices mirror other hobbies' pricing. And those cycles can stretch in the years.

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Moda


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I done a ton of deals on moda and made friends on it. What’s the problem in your mind?

[stockae92]

I'll let you when I can get a SS Daytona at AD, with discount, and they actually treats me like I am the boss ...

[justdate]

I personally expect them to fall significantly more over the coming months and years.

The whole market was fuelled by a mad hype to own the latest fashion item, a luxury watch, and to make a quick buck by flipping watches.

Fashions and fads pass fast. I expect in a few years to see very few active members on here with ‘20-‘22 registered accounts.

Next, the profit of flipping is almost entirely gone on most models as the brands maximise their profit, and greys pay low for watches.

As such the demand fuelling everything will disappear, and the watches will start to be available at retail more and more readily. This will force grey dealers to drop their prices or else they just won’t sell.

Just my view on your Q.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by stockae92

I'll let you when I can get a SS Daytona at AD, with discount, and they actually treats me like I am the boss ...

Don't forget the new Ferrari, am sure for you they'll set one aside immediately, and at a discount of course. Don't they know who you are?

[jb335]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Moda is like "wholesale plus." Not retail but not quite wholesale. To people saying it is a clown show in there, it isn't, by and large. I see many of the same TS on TRF selling into Moda. I've seen the same watch listed here and Moda by sellers. The price on Moda is always more attractive. The fact of the matter is, if you call a TS and ask for a watch that they dont have, they are likely going to ask for that watch in a chat that includes a bunch of sellers on Moda. It's like anything else...if you buy on Moda, do your due diligence on the seller but you are likely to pay much less than if buying from a guy like DSW.

Spot on.

Moda is wholesale plus and DavidSW is retail plus.


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[mannyv11]

Like others have said. I’ve seen a few of the trusted sellers on moda buying and selling. Not sure what the big deal is.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Moda is like "wholesale plus." Not retail but not quite wholesale. To people saying it is a clown show in there, it isn't, by and large. I see many of the same TS on TRF selling into Moda. I've seen the same watch listed here and Moda by sellers. The price on Moda is always more attractive. The fact of the matter is, if you call a TS and ask for a watch that they dont have, they are likely going to ask for that watch in a chat that includes a bunch of sellers on Moda. It's like anything else...if you buy on Moda, do your due diligence on the seller but you are likely to pay much less than if buying from a guy like DSW.

Echoing all of this. +1

[Gearjockey]

Sorry for the watch trading unfamiliarity here, but is Moda Watch Club on FB the same thing as MODA?

Thanks.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Gearjockey

Sorry for the watch trading unfamiliarity here, but is Moda Watch Club on FB the same thing as MODA?

Thanks.

Yeah. I mean it’s just a Facebook group for selling watches is all. Then there’s about 459 other tertiary groups they’ve created.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by justdate

I personally expect them to fall significantly more over the coming months and years.

The whole market was fuelled by a mad hype to own the latest fashion item, a luxury watch, and to make a quick buck by flipping watches.

Fashions and fads pass fast. I expect in a few years to see very few active members on here with ‘20-‘22 registered accounts.

Next, the profit of flipping is almost entirely gone on most models as the brands maximise their profit, and greys pay low for watches.

As such the demand fuelling everything will disappear, and the watches will start to be available at retail more and more readily. This will force grey dealers to drop their prices or else they just won’t sell.

Just my view on your Q.

I joined the forum last year, “post-hype”… got my “hype” Rolex in 2019, pre-hype. It was already trading at a 50%++ premium to msrp at that time (SS Daytona). For context had been interested in and buying watches for perhaps 15 years prior to getting my first Rolex.

When I saw prices rocket I knew it wouldn’t last. I don’t actively trade in/out of my collectibles so didn’t sell any watches. Same with other things I collect.

I also didn’t add anything that fell into a “hype” category. I didn’t entirely stop buying but added nothing people were speculating on.

That speculative sub-segment fell back and is (in my view) fully corrected today. There will be some further easing but would be surprised it anything dramatic. I imagine depleted savings for big swaths of the population here in the US will eventually become a real drag (hasn’t happened) but I think for Rolex that hit has already been felt, along some other aspirational luxury goods.

The tricky part is that any further macro erosion will support central bank aggression with rate reductions - restarting the cycle. So while we may not be at absolute bottom today it is likely we’re a) not far off and b) as likely to be in a boom cycle again in 24 months from now.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Moda is like going to a car auction.. Yea, you can find some stupid low prices on a super car but that doesn’t translate in to what the average market price really is at a dealership or even a private seller. There will always been rock bottom deal sniffers but very few of these bargains hunters are actually buying these deals they like to say is what the market price is.
In a way it’s used to influence the “idea” that these are the true market prices of what you should “expect” to pay for these cars or watches but it’s the difference between whole sale pricing and retail pricing. When you get a clone, rock, or watch with a story to save a few bucks is when reality hits hard.
Your BigMac only cost 41 cents to actually make so you’re a sucker to pay the $4. I’ll just hang outside McDonald’s and wait for a employee to sell me one out the back door for $2.

[Calatrava r]

Perhaps, when supply exceeds demand?