It's the internet stupid!

[padi56]

It's the internet stupid!? Well in my experience especially lately on forum, its the persons using the internet that are mainly stupid, as many today believe if its on the internet it must be true.

[DP63]

Stumbled across this while drinking coffee this morning.



https://youtu.be/cMYYKVdbUvs

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Pops1973

It’s a mass produced good not high end luxury and if it was for the few they wouldn’t be making a million a year . I see a Rolex nearly every day on someone’s wrist that’s without even looking for them. They are a great quality watch just like a pair of church’s are good quality shoes not luxury.

This "mass produced" argument doesn't mean anything if there aren't enough to go around. Rolex watches are not devalued because of how or how many are manufactured.

What's your definition of "luxury" where a stock standard Submariner costs $10K and a desirable piece like a Daytona or a GMT costs north of $18K? You must live in an exceptional neighborhood.

And you see them nearly every day on someone's wrist because with minimal care they easily last 50 years. You're not seeing freshly purchased easy-to-find 2018 examples on those wrists every day. They're 2012's, 2001's, 1994's, 1988's, 1975's, 1969's and on and on. Just like a pair of shoes. Indeed.

[Watch This]

Amazing. I started this thread merely to offer my opinion that internet greys have created a problem for Rolex that they have yet to solve and may not. I also made the point that better inventory control, pricing, etc., was needed.

There were some very good replies such as one mentioning currency exchange rates which fuel the grey market and which, I bet most here don't fully understand. And there was a lot of venom spewed. Some lawyer bashing. Some name calling. A request that I be banned.

It seems to me that many here view the brand as immune from criticism which strikes me as odd for a discussion forum. Any critique seems to offend the wisdom of their having invested money in a Rolex. How dare someone challenge the very thing that allows me to display my wealth and great taste to the world.

I also know that there are a lot of smart, helpful folk here, true collectors, who understand that not all is right currently and that EMPTY SHOWCASES WORLDWIDE are a sign of a problem. Don't tell me about record profits, don't tell me about how to work the AD's, don't tell me about how attractive other pieces in the line are, tell me about why i can't walk into an AD and buy a Submariner but I can buy it online above MSRP.

Nah, there's no problem. Everything is perfect. Just some angry internet whiners.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by DP63

Stumbled across this while drinking coffee this morning.



https://youtu.be/cMYYKVdbUvs

very , very , very good.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Watch This

Amazing. I started this thread merely to offer my opinion that internet greys have created a problem for Rolex that they have yet to solve and may not. I also made the point that better inventory control, pricing, etc., was needed.

There were some very good replies such as one mentioning currency exchange rates which fuel the grey market and which, I bet most here don't fully understand. And there was a lot of venom spewed. Some lawyer bashing. Some name calling. A request that I be banned.

It seems to me that many here view the brand as immune from criticism which strikes me as odd for a discussion forum. Any critique seems to offend the wisdom of their having invested money in a Rolex. How dare someone challenge the very thing that allows me to display my wealth and great taste to the world.

I also know that there are a lot of smart, helpful folk here, true collectors, who understand that not all is right currently and that EMPTY SHOWCASES WORLDWIDE are a sign of a problem. Don't tell me about record profits, don't tell me about how to work the AD's, don't tell me about how attractive other pieces in the line are, tell me about why i can't walk into an AD and buy a Submariner but I can buy it online above MSRP.

Nah, there's no problem. Everything is perfect. Just some angry internet whiners.

This may be the thing you don't get. Everything IS PERFECT for everyone except for the group who can barely scrape up the money needed to purchase a hot new Rolex. Think about it:

Rolex = Selling every unit, brand perception at an all-time high. They're good.

AD's = Empty cases because they too have sold every unit, some well above MSRP. They're good.

Flippers = Individuals, not companies, who got a BLRO or similar reference at MSRP and made a few dollars. He's good.

Grey's = Buying low, selling high, selling every unit. They're good.

Grey Buyers = Not sweating the money, just want someone to sell them a Rolex. They're good.

Dollar Scrapers = Want the hot new Rolex, can just afford it at MSRP, but no AD's have any and they can't afford the grey prices. They're frustrated.

So, yes, you have a right to express displeasure if you're in that last group and we feel for you, we've all been there at one time or another. But for everyone else it's good times. Money-makers are making money, enthusiasts with a bit of discretionary funds can have any reference they want, and social media is there to bathe them in glory.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

This may be the thing you don't get. Everything IS PERFECT for everyone except for the group who can barely scrape up the money needed to purchase a hot new Rolex. Think about it:

Rolex = Selling every unit, brand perception at an all-time high. They're good.

AD's = Empty cases because they too have sold every unit, some well above MSRP. They're good.

Flippers = Individuals, not companies, who got a BLRO or similar reference at MSRP and made a few dollars. He's good.

Grey's = Buying low, selling high, selling every unit. They're good.

Grey Buyers = Not sweating the money, just want someone to sell them a Rolex. They're good.

Dollar Scrapers = Want the hot new Rolex, can just afford it at MSRP, but no AD's have any and they can't afford the grey prices. They're frustrated.

So, yes, you have a right to express displeasure if you're in that last group and we feel for you, we've all been there at one time or another. But for everyone else it's good times. Money-makers are making money, enthusiasts with a bit of discretionary funds can have any reference they want, and social media is there to bathe them in glory.

I appreciate the reply.

Not sure i agree 100%. I can (no BS) pay cash today for a briefcase full of new BLRO SS. But no damn way I am paying 17-18k. Also, how do you know Greys are selling every unit? I see many pieces seemingly sitting on websites of Trusted Sellers. Lastly why are AD salespeople looking so decimated? Where do they fit into the equation?

Reading every word you wrote carefully, sure sounds like a bubble to me.

[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by Watch This

Amazing. I started this thread merely to offer my opinion that internet greys have created a problem for Rolex that they have yet to solve and may not. I also made the point that better inventory control, pricing, etc., was needed.

There were some very good replies such as one mentioning currency exchange rates which fuel the grey market and which, I bet most here don't fully understand. And there was a lot of venom spewed. Some lawyer bashing. Some name calling. A request that I be banned.

It seems to me that many here view the brand as immune from criticism which strikes me as odd for a discussion forum. Any critique seems to offend the wisdom of their having invested money in a Rolex. How dare someone challenge the very thing that allows me to display my wealth and great taste to the world.

I also know that there are a lot of smart, helpful folk here, true collectors, who understand that not all is right currently and that EMPTY SHOWCASES WORLDWIDE are a sign of a problem. Don't tell me about record profits, don't tell me about how to work the AD's, don't tell me about how attractive other pieces in the line are, tell me about why i can't walk into an AD and buy a Submariner but I can buy it online above MSRP.

Nah, there's no problem. Everything is perfect. Just some angry internet whiners.

To be fair, the lawyer issue (and resulting logic exercise) was brought up by you. Nobody was "lawyer bashing" so much as pointing out that the legal/lawyer aspect was irrelevant and ironic given that I still need to go to a law library for what in every other industry would be available online. That is to say, a lawyer complaining about the role of the internet in capitalism was funny and worth pointing out.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by Cloudchaser

To be fair, the lawyer issue (and resulting logic exercise) was brought up by you. Nobody was "lawyer bashing" so much as pointing out that the legal/lawyer aspect was irrelevant and ironic given that I still need to go to a law library for what in every other industry would be available online. That is to say, a lawyer complaining about the role of the internet in capitalism was funny and worth pointing out.

Uh... no you don't, Traditional law libraries are virtually non-existent. Everything is online and has been for years. Conference room law books are props. We also e-file everything in state and federal court. I'm surprised you don't know that.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by padi56

It's the internet stupid!? Well in my experience especially lately on forum, its the persons using the internet that are mainly stupid, as many today believe if its on the internet it must be true.

The thread borrowed a catch phrase from Bill Clinton's first presidential run, specifically, "it's the economy stupid".

Non-Americans might not recognize the phrase. It was not intended as a slight toward anyone.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Watch This

I appreciate the reply.

Not sure i agree 100%. I can (no BS) pay cash today for a briefcase full of new BLRO SS. But no damn way I am paying 17-18k. Also, how do you know Greys are selling every unit? I see many pieces seemingly sitting on websites of Trusted Sellers. Lastly why are AD salespeople looking so decimated? Where do they fit into the equation?

Reading every word you wrote carefully, sure sounds like a bubble to me.

Thanks, and I appreciate the reply as well. To your points:

It seems you're a man of principles who refuses to pay above MSRP for a Rolex. That's good, but this is the wrong era for that philosophy to bring you much joy. It can bring you much forum debate so there's that.

I believe grey dealers are selling every unit of the hottest new releases because they go in and out of stock just like retail stores do, and when I've made inquiries sometimes I get told they can get me what I want but it may take a few weeks. I don't think they'd turn away my business for the sake of posturing.

AD salespeople and AD owners are two different types of people. The owners of dealerships that are moving significant quantity to grey's are seeing their cashflow move faster than ever and are making nice money on the very hot references. The AD salespeople are making $20 an hour plus commission and times are tough, I feel badly for them.

A "bubble" refers to an investment market and I think this mythical "investor" is a forum straw man. Honestly, do you think that there are millions of private individuals with locked safes full of unworn Rolex watches with an expectation that it will outperform a good investment fund or stock portfolio? Nope. There is no bubble because there are no Rolex investors. We are just enthusiasts who after 20 years of ownership might be surprised to find that our old watches are worth more than we paid for them. Or not, makes no difference. So all this bubble this and bubble that means nothing.

Today, November 2018, a BLRO is a $17K or $18K watch. Pay it or not. That's all any of this money talk means.

[Dlong]

Its simply supply and demand. Too much of a demand for the amount of watches produced. I think the market will loosen up a bit. I hear NYC, one of the largest cities in the world has 6 Rolex AD's Hong Kong has 61 AD's. Thats where all the watches are going folks. Was talking to a local AD in the Mall last night after dinner. His case was bare. He said when he had watches, the Chinese would come in and buy 6 at a time. Told me Rolex was purposely holding back on Daytonas, why, I don't know. Anything else was production as usual. Also said Rolex wants to move away from the small independant dealers and have mainly large dealers like Tourneau, Majors, etc. Easier to control. Take it for what its worth.

[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by Watch This

Uh... no you don't, Traditional law libraries are virtually non-existent. Everything is online and has been for years. Conference room law books are props. We also e-file everything in state and federal court. I'm surprised you don't know that.

Everything vital is behind a paywall when most industries have given up that hope, the information does want to be free.

But I think you knew what I meant...

[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by Watch This

The thread borrowed a catch phrase from Bill Clinton's first presidential run, specifically, "it's the economy stupid".

Non-Americans might not recognize the phrase. It was not intended as a slight toward anyone.

I am an American of similar age and only now that you put the two together do I recall it. The Clinton expression was meant, too, as a rhetorical debate killer. I'd be willing to bet that you weren't thinking about Bill Clinton or the history of the turn of phrase until you needed it now...

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by Cloudchaser

I am an American of similar age and only now that you put the two together do I recall it. The Clinton expression was meant, too, as a rhetorical debate killer. I'd be willing to bet that you weren't thinking about Bill Clinton or the history of the turn of phrase until you needed it now...

Wrong. Dead wrong. You are giving me a headache.

[dubins930]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

1. SS watches like the BLRO and Daytona Ceramic are not mass produced. They are produced in very limited quantities compared to other references and certainly not enough to satisfy demand.

2. It's time that we realize that a very significant portion of enthusiasts don't want a PM watch under any circumstances, so if a SS Rolex starts approaching PM Rolex pricing it doesn't really matter.

1) No one has numbers on BLRO and Daytona production... To my knowledge Rolex has never said either are produced in “very limited quantities”, could be wrong. I will give you that it isn’t enough for demand, but they are still mass produced watches.
2) I myself don’t want PM Rolex, but valuing new SS Rolex into the 20-30k is absurd as far as value goes. I love Rolex product but I’m not blinded by a brand name.

[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by Watch This

Wrong. Dead wrong. You are giving me a headache.

I studied up...on the internet. What I learned is that you should take two aspirin and relax.

Sorry we missed the super-obvious twenty-five year old implied Bill Clinton reference. That's on us. We need to be better.

I'll bow out now...should help your headache some.

[Pops1973]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

This "mass produced" argument doesn't mean anything if there aren't enough to go around. Rolex watches are not devalued because of how or how many are manufactured.

What's your definition of "luxury" where a stock standard Submariner costs $10K and a desirable piece like a Daytona or a GMT costs north of $18K? You must live in an exceptional neighborhood.

And you see them nearly every day on someone's wrist because with minimal care they easily last 50 years. You're not seeing freshly purchased easy-to-find 2018 examples on those wrists every day. They're 2012's, 2001's, 1994's, 1988's, 1975's, 1969's and on and on. Just like a pair of shoes. Indeed.

Like I said a quality product built to last and the watches I come across are from different eras some are old and some newer worn by people from all backgrounds.
But I will restate that it’s not a luxury product as most people that work, if they save up can get one hiwever the same cannot be said for a Patek or something made bespoke for you - going back to my original comparison that would be made to measure shoes - or maybe I am just a snob lol . Based in London FYI. But I don’t live there

[storm66]

And to think all I want, is to walk into my AD with my very hard earned cash that I’ve saved hard to accumulate and just buy a new SS GMT to love and keep forever,not flip for a quick profit,just cherish and love.......if I can’t do that then something,somewhere has surly gone wrong .....I don’t know what,but somebody out there can tell me......

[mikenuguy]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

This may be the thing you don't get. Everything IS PERFECT for everyone except for the group who can barely scrape up the money needed to purchase a hot new Rolex. Think about it:

Rolex = Selling every unit, brand perception at an all-time high. They're good.

AD's = Empty cases because they too have sold every unit, some well above MSRP. They're good.

Flippers = Individuals, not companies, who got a BLRO or similar reference at MSRP and made a few dollars. He's good.

Grey's = Buying low, selling high, selling every unit. They're good.

Grey Buyers = Not sweating the money, just want someone to sell them a Rolex. They're good.

Dollar Scrapers = Want the hot new Rolex, can just afford it at MSRP, but no AD's have any and they can't afford the grey prices. They're frustrated.

So, yes, you have a right to express displeasure if you're in that last group and we feel for you, we've all been there at one time or another. But for everyone else it's good times. Money-makers are making money, enthusiasts with a bit of discretionary funds can have any reference they want, and social media is there to bathe them in glory.

I agree with most of this post but one thing that confuses me is why don't AD's sell the stock that would go to grey market dealers? It seems strange to me that they would sell to grey market dealers at a discount when people are on year long waitlists for those same models.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by storm66

And to think all I want, is to walk into my AD with my very hard earned cash that I’ve saved hard to accumulate and just buy a new SS GMT to love and keep forever,not flip for a quick profit,just cherish and love.......if I can’t do that then something,somewhere has surly gone wrong .....I don’t know what,but somebody out there can tell me......

Rolex has created MSRP's that aren't realistic and don't reflect their true worth. As a result of this, you feel its unfair that you can't have one at that unrealistic price.

The good news is that you can have the SS GMT of your dreams tomorrow if you want one, you just need to pay current market price no different than a pound of lobster or a gallon of gasoline. And once on your wrist, the value remains, you'll still likely wind up breaking even or making a small profit 10 or 20 years down the road. So don't wait. Buy it today, have it tomorrow.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by storm66

And to think all I want, is to walk into my AD with my very hard earned cash that I’ve saved hard to accumulate and just buy a new SS GMT to love and keep forever,not flip for a quick profit,just cherish and love.......if I can’t do that then something,somewhere has surly gone wrong .....I don’t know what,but somebody out there can tell me......

I love this post and I agree 100%. Years ago this was the definition of a Rolex owner. Now, people with this mentality are victims of the market. Sad if you ask me. But remember...everything is fine.

[dwjez14]

No matter what the forgotten fact is anyone with a Rolex on their wrist new or old did something right financially most likely. I had an Ad told me if I bought a piece they would get me on the list for the batman. My thought is stic it where the sun don't shine. You want my business then don't try to force me to buy one to not guarantee another. I am actually enjoying looking for my desired watch for the best deal possible. It is quite fun and addicting. Plus it allows me to get to know fellow Rolex owners. My dream is to continue to build my collection and pass down an amazing watch collection to my sons.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by storm66

And to think all I want, is to walk into my AD with my very hard earned cash that I’ve saved hard to accumulate and just buy a new SS GMT to love and keep forever,not flip for a quick profit,just cherish and love.......if I can’t do that then something,somewhere has surly gone wrong .....I don’t know what,but somebody out there can tell me......

You can walk into a dealer tomorrow and buy the watch of your dreams - only it will cost you a lot more - maybe twice the price because of the grey dealers

Without them, you would be far more likely to be able to buy the watch at MSRP, but it would still be worth the current grey market price

Your loss is their gain. Whether you view that as a good thing or not, depends on which group you identify with.

Or to put it another way, should the gain go to buyers or grey dealers?

[Watch This]

[QUOTE=ROLMARINER;9119002]Rolex has created MSRP's that aren't realistic and don't reflect their true worth. As a result of this, you feel its unfair that you can't have one at that unrealistic price.

A SS BLRO is worth 17K? Or is that bloated price "created" by intentional scarcity? How could MSRP ever be defined as unrealistic except where the manufacturer limits supply. Yeah.... I get it. i really do. Supply and demand.

I just really dislike this game.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Watch This

A SS BLRO is worth 17K? Or is that bloated price "created" by intentional scarcity? How could MSRP ever be defined as unrealistic except where the manufacturer limits supply. Yeah.... I get it. i really do. Supply and demand.

I just really dislike this game.

Created? Artificial? Scarcity? Games? Does any of this matter?

If the only price that average buyers are offered for a SS BLRO is $17K and those average buyers are paying it, then the price of a SS BLRO is $17K.

This is not rocket science. It's just capitalism. The Pepsi Ceramic is a $17K watch. If you can't stomach that, forget the colorful bezel and the jubilee bracelet and pick up a LN, they're only $9K right now, a bargain.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

...maybe twice the price because of the grey dealers

Without them, you would be far more likely to be able to buy the watch at MSRP,

Something worth mentioning is that there is this theory that if there was no grey market that anyone would be able to buy a BLRO from their friendly local AD and nothing could be further from the truth.

There would still be 10x or 20x more demand for the watch than inventory available, still nowhere near enough to go around, so with no price resistance there would be 10x or 20x more people you'd be competing with to get the hot new model.

And without being able to get one, instead of large corporate grey dealers you'd have hundreds of private flippers asking the same $17K but offering very little confidence and we'd be hearing reports of people being ripped off. No different than it's better to have Stubhub who stands behind the tickets they sell well-over face value than a guy in a trench coat demanding cash in the parking lot.

I'm telling you, it's better this way. I can't think of another time in the post-yuppie 80's era that anyone can make one phone call and have any Rolex they desire at their front door the next morning. And while no one wants to spend more than MSRP, there is something to be said about a luxury item feeling even more luxurious because of what one has to go through financially to get one.

[dubins930]

Originally Posted by Watch This

I love this post and I agree 100%. Years ago this was the definition of a Rolex owner. Now, people with this mentality are victims of the market. Sad if you ask me. But remember...everything is fine.

It is sad that a once great easily obtainable tool watch (probably the greatest in its catagory) has now become overpriced man jewelry. I’m not really sure how a stainless steel watch with a largely undecorated/uncomplicated movement is considered exclusive luxury... guess I didn’t drink the kool-aid.

[storm66]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

Rolex has created MSRP's that aren't realistic and don't reflect their true worth. As a result of this, you feel its unfair that you can't have one at that unrealistic price.

The good news is that you can have the SS GMT of your dreams tomorrow if you want one, you just need to pay current market price no different than a pound of lobster or a gallon of gasoline. And once on your wrist, the value remains, you'll still likely wind up breaking even or making a small profit 10 or 20 years down the road. So don't wait. Buy it today, have it tomorrow.

I’ve got £8k not £14k

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

Something worth mentioning is that there is this theory that if there was no grey market that anyone would be able to buy a BLRO from their friendly local AD and nothing could be further from the truth.

There would still be 10x or 20x more demand for the watch than inventory available, still nowhere near enough to go around, so with no price resistance there would be 10x or 20x more people you'd be competing with to get the hot new model.

And without being able to get one, instead of large corporate grey dealers you'd have hundreds of private flippers asking the same $17K but offering very little confidence and we'd be hearing reports of people being ripped off. No different than it's better to have Stubhub who stands behind the tickets they sell well-over face value than a guy in a trench coat demanding cash in the parking lot.

I'm telling you, it's better this way. I can't think of another time in the post-yuppie 80's era that anyone can make one phone call and have any Rolex they desire at their front door the next morning. And while no one wants to spend more than MSRP, there is something to be said about a luxury item feeling even more luxurious because of what one has to go through financially to get one.

I'm not saying that everyone could get one - but many more people would be able to get one, as all Rolex watches would be available to normal buyers - rather than only being available to VIPs or big spenders.

At least we would have fighting chance of getting one