Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!

[mr_gray]

if any person was thinking of selling a watch, now is the time. in three months things will be so different you'll be pinching yourself. business hasn't been super in retail for a long time. alot of weakness. retail was the last refuge of the displaced manufacturing jobs in alot of advanced economies.

here in australia we are seeing this shutdown act as a catalyst for structural changes that were on the horizon. that is to say retail is collapsing as an employer. retail demand may never be the same (alot of people living week to week will be extremely traumatised by these events in regard to their buying behaviour).

alot of wealth has evaporated. alot of small business has gone to the wall and may not be able to reinstate itself post the virus. it would be only logical to assume that the impact on watches will be disproportionately large. 10 years ago supply exceeded demand. 1 year ago the opposite was true. that wheel does turn and it surely will again.

[AbsolutelyROLEX!]

Man I still dont know guys
The rich always have money
ADs have been mostly selling to the rich, the people who come in and buy a 100k diamond necklace.
May not be so true now but mostly.
With them shut down, the possible lack of buyers will offset that.
If nobody is buying, no more stock will be sent to Ads

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

So, basically, Rolex owners are immune to global recessions and they haven’t been affected by the 30% drop in the markets. At least that’s good to know.

Lol right?

Originally Posted by sousukef

That’s a silly assumption that there isn’t a percentage of rolex owners/buyers part of the millions filing for unemployment. You’re sharing anecdotal feedback without any concrete evidence. Heres some anecdotal feedback that counters your above statement: Two of my friends and their spouses work in the service/hospitality industry and they own 5+ rolexes each. Their industry is completely shutdown and they’ve been laid off for two weeks. Guess what they are not buying now?

Yeah I’ve heard multiple people on here say this. It exudes a sense of elitism that’s absurd.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

Great post though I lol-Ed as champion is back for the kids

[Michael T]

The point about the GM stops buying when they have to liquidate inventory is well taken.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

Absolutely spot on. Very well outlined and reasoned.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Man I still dont know guys
The rich always have money
ADs have been mostly selling to the rich, the people who come in and buy a 100k diamond necklace.
May not be so true now but mostly.
With them shut down, the possible lack of buyers will offset that.
If nobody is buying, no more stock will be sent to Ads

I think you're hugely overestimating the average Rolex buyer and assuming they all have vast amounts of disposable income.
Many will have bought using cheap credit because of the low interest rates. Many will also have bought so they can flex for the 'gram.
Many will have bought with their annual bonuses.
Many will now re-think their priorities in life and wonder - is now the best time to throw $10k+ on a watch?

Stock will continue to be churned out (once the factories re-open) much as it was before the uber-hype phase we've just been through.

Perhaps Patek and AP might be different, but I see Rolex as more upper mid tier and not high end like the others.

The fact that David SW has dropped his asking price for a new BLNR from $16k to under $14k (and some others are now asking $13k) in the space of 2 months would indicate to me we're in for a major drop in demand.

[AlexSpB]

I have a feeling we going to see lot more used watches on marketplace and people will be desperate to sell them. Toys are first to be liquidated in tough times and tough times are ahead. When used sell well bellow MSRP I don't see many people paying over retail for new Rolex. Sumbariners, GMT, Daytonas prices will come back to sanity, to 2012-2014 level in no time.

[SUPERDOC]

Originally Posted by Patton250

You must be the life of the party.

An expert at “pep talks”

It's a pep talk for those hoping for better prices... a brutal reality check for the others stuck in Denial...

All truth passes through 3 stages :

1. It is ridiculed
2. It is violently opposed
3. It is accepted as self-evident

[Podmornica]

Just received a message from a gray dealer to which I have expressed my interest in BLRO couple of months ago, but didn't proceed due to high price ..

He must be in a tough position if going through the list of messages asking if someone's still interested. Didn't ask for the price he's offering it for though, as I am not interested buying anything from the gray market atm.

[Bob the brush]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

I don't have a huge watch collection maybe 7 or 8 nice pieces, What i do have is the calmness and capacity to ride out this awful period.

I didn't buy them as investments neither do i worry what the watch market is doing, I hope they retain most of their value if they don't I have enjoyed the chase, buying and wearing them.

If $$$$$$$ is what owning a Rolex is about, that point has been lost on me.

I am with you 100%, I just enjoy my collection, nobody knows about my interest, apart from here of course, and that's just the way I like it. All keep safe in these strange times, this forum makes the day a little brighter.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

It's a pep talk for those hoping for better prices... a brutal reality check for the others stuck in Denial...

All truth passes through 3 stages :

1. It is ridiculed
2. It is violently opposed
3. It is accepted as self-evident

Hahaha+1!!!!!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Just received a message from a gray dealer to which I have expressed my interest in BLRO couple of months ago, but didn't proceed due to high price ..

He must be in a tough position if going through the list of messages asking if someone's still interested. Didn't ask for the price he's offering it for though, as I am not interested buying anything from the gray market atm.

Haha that’s hilarious

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Just received a message from a gray dealer to which I have expressed my interest in BLRO couple of months ago, but didn't proceed due to high price ..

He must be in a tough position if going through the list of messages asking if someone's still interested. Didn't ask for the price he's offering it for though, as I am not interested buying anything from the gray market atm.

Hahah thats great. I offered a grey dealer $1.5k less than he had an AP listed. He responded with “it’ll never go that low”. I can’t wait until it goes that low. At this point I wouldn’t buy just out of principle and because I’m stubborn. I’ll definitely shoot him an email though for vindication and to rub it in, bc yes I am that immature.

[kareemthedream33]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Hahah thats great. I offered a grey dealer $1.5k less than he had an AP listed. He responded with “it’ll never go that low”. I can’t wait until it goes that low. At this point I wouldn’t buy just out of principle and because I’m stubborn. I’ll definitely shoot him an email though for vindication and to rub it in, bc yes I am that immature.

That's surprising! Even when the market was scorching, I've had greys accept offers of 1.5-2k less than their asking price.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by kareemthedream33

That's surprising! Even when the market was scorching, I've had greys accept offers of 1.5-2k less than their asking price.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Yup! Welp the watch isn’t selling in fact, it’s been for sale for awhile now. Just keeps getting bumped. I’m noticing this a lot from the greys. Just keep bumping the same sale

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

I think the huge demand from the general public is from aspirational owners. Those that may have low to middling salaries, but minimal overheads - eg young people housesharing. These are the people who want to be fashionable and cool, have significant proportion of their salary being disposable income, and content to pay a lot of money for an asset that will only appreciate in value. Add in the kudos or obtaining something that is generally unobtainable, then you have potent demand driver.

But, if their income drops / eliminated, and they are worried about paying rent, then they won’t buy today but wait for the hypothetical tomorrow

If enough potential buyers do the same, then demand drops, Rolex appear in ADs, market value will drop to below MRSP, this scares away more aspirational buyers who may have income but are nervous of spending £10k on a depreciating asset

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I think the huge demand from the general public is from aspirational owners. Those that may have low to middling salaries, but minimal overheads - eg young people housesharing. These are the people who want to be fashionable and cool, have significant proportion of their salary being disposable income, and content to pay a lot of money for an asset that will only appreciate in value. Add in the kudos or obtaining something that is generally unobtainable, then you have potent demand driver.

But, if their income drops / eliminated, and they are worried about paying rent, then they won’t buy today but wait for the hypothetical tomorrow

If enough potential buyers do the same, then demand drops, Rolex appear in ADs, market value will drop to below MRSP, this scares away more aspirational buyers who may have income but are nervous of spending £10k on a depreciating asset

Agree 100%, I am sure a large part of the Rolex SS are not wealthy at all, and bought it because it is appreciates in value. Now when it is depreciating, it is a great moment to get out of it. Ofc Rolex are great watches, phenomenon brand recognition, unparalleled history so a lot of people buy them because they love them. But in my humble opinion, the SS over-list prices were driven by new younger buyers obsessed with Social Media, and not by the guys that are buying Rolex watches for decades.

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Quickest way to find out is to call a gray and start negotiating your best price on a 5711 or white Daytona C. Let’s us know what you come up with.

Man, I wish there was a "like" button on here!

[worldofoyster]

with all the uncertainties and possible global recession or depression, watch shouldn't be the top thing on people's list

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Man, I wish there was a "like" button on here!

A lot of grays are still in denial, holding out as long as they can before they realize the parade is over

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

A lot of grays are still in denial, holding out as long as they can before they realize the parade is over

A 114060 Sub sold on ebay today for a thousand bucks under current retail. I dont think that would have happened a month or so ago.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I think the huge demand from the general public is from aspirational owners. Those that may have low to middling salaries, but minimal overheads - eg young people housesharing. These are the people who want to be fashionable and cool, have significant proportion of their salary being disposable income, and content to pay a lot of money for an asset that will only appreciate in value. Add in the kudos or obtaining something that is generally unobtainable, then you have potent demand driver.

But, if their income drops / eliminated, and they are worried about paying rent, then they won’t buy today but wait for the hypothetical tomorrow

If enough potential buyers do the same, then demand drops, Rolex appear in ADs, market value will drop to below MRSP, this scares away more aspirational buyers who may have income but are nervous of spending £10k on a depreciating asset

This x1000000.

I don't get this whole mindset by some on here who think that a normal Rolex owner is in some upper echelon of life (if anything it's made up of the EXACT opposite and retirees). It's really really really weird to me, and comes across as if they have some type of inferiority complex. For example, I think yesterday somebody said "if you're making less than 6 figures and getting any type of stimulus money, you can't afford a Rolex anyways". It's as if these individuals are parroting this nonsense because they want to think they've one upped the majority of society by simply owning a luxury wristwatch.

There's plenty of 'normal' guys who probably drop the $10k equivalent Rolex money at the bar each year. But somehow they can't put back enough in 3-4 years to get a Rolex? Yeah, ok.

[bobfried]

First Post on this forum and it is nice to get it buried deep inside a thread!!!!

I've been in the "watch" game since 2000, right after Y2K and it was so much nicer "back then". I'm not exactly young but far from being old and I remember the days of walking into any AD, whether it is Rolex, PP or AP and getting what you want with minimal to no wait time.

AP and PP (VC) have always been a step above the average consumer pocketbooks. AP and PP will see their demand retract, but not to a great extent. A recession makes some people a LOT of money. In about 4 months if the economy rebounds, demand on PP and AP might even spike.

Rolex is not in that sphere, a barebones Rolex does not command a 20k MSRP that PP and AP does. The average buyers of Rolex, in general, are not "watch people" that most of us are on this forum. The AD will see a substantial drop in sales, forget the SS sports models, imagine the run of the mill ladies quartz dragging the bottom line of all the AD.

[Randy63]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I think the huge demand from the general public is from aspirational owners. Those that may have low to middling salaries, but minimal overheads - eg young people housesharing. These are the people who want to be fashionable and cool, have significant proportion of their salary being disposable income, and content to pay a lot of money for an asset that will only appreciate in value. Add in the kudos or obtaining something that is generally unobtainable, then you have potent demand driver.

But, if their income drops / eliminated, and they are worried about paying rent, then they won’t buy today but wait for the hypothetical tomorrow

If enough potential buyers do the same, then demand drops, Rolex appear in ADs, market value will drop to below MRSP, this scares away more aspirational buyers who may have income but are nervous of spending £10k on a depreciating asset

I agree. The chart I've posted seems to bear this out. The dollar amounts are monthly income.





These are the results of an online survey of 900 Rolex owners taken between May 15th and May 22nd 2018 I found on line. I've included the link but it goes behind a pay wall when linked to a forum. For that reason I've posted a screen shot.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...rolex-jewelry/

[Calatrava r]

If the watches sell at ADs at a discount and then for less used. The new Rolex market at ADs will tank. What has driven the demand are the investor/speculator/have to have the impossible to get crowd. The go away, and they will, from soft prices and good availability, there are not enough buyers out there to prevent the downturn from deepening on watches.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Randy63

I agree. The chart I've posted seems to bear this out. The dollar amounts are monthly income.





These are the results of an online survey of 900 Rolex owners taken between May 15th and May 22nd 2018 I found on line. I've included the link but it goes behind a pay wall when linked to a forum. For that reason I've posted a screen shot.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...rolex-jewelry/

Fantastic link, approx 2/3 of Rolex owners make between 72-96k. Exactly what I would think. Oh and let’s not joke that everyone likes to inflate their salary a bit, so I’m sure somebody making $4500 might say $5000, etc etc

You listen to this forum and you’d think it’s a requirement to be pulling down neurosurgeon money to own a Submariner

[Yess]

Originally Posted by dmash

Fantastic link, approx 2/3 of Rolex owners make between 72-96k. Exactly what I would think. Oh and let’s not joke that everyone likes to inflate their salary a bit, so I’m sure somebody making $4500 might say $5000, etc etc

You listen to this forum and you’d think it’s a requirement to be pulling down neurosurgeon money to own a Submariner

Yeah, I would agree.

But I would also add that $100k to one person is $150+ to another. I have a partner and we have no children. Our combine salary makes our lifestyle very comfortable. I would hazard a guess that the same combined salary for someone with three children would have to budget in a way we don't. Dropping $10k on a watch doesn't make me balk as much when I hear my friends paying $30k a year for one child to be educated.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Yess

Yeah, I would agree.

But I would also add that $100k to one person is $150+ to another. I have a partner and we have no children. Our combine salary makes our lifestyle very comfortable. I would hazard a guess that the same combined salary for someone with three children would have to budget in a way we don't. Dropping $10k on a watch doesn't make me balk as much when I hear my friends paying $30k a year for one child to be educated.

Still, just read some of the comments by some on here in other threads. They’ll nonchalant say things that insinuate a Rolex buyer needs to be in the upper 1%. It’s laughable

I knew people in undergrad without a penny to their name, but worked a part time job to save for a Rolex. It’s not that crazy. So when you have this economic downward spiral and TONS of hourly work across the US being shut down, it’s ridiculous to assume this isn’t a large part of the Rolex buying population. Plus all these guys flaunting on IG, bought to take a pic, wear a couple months and flip. Those days are gone.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by dmash

Still, just read some of the comments by some on here in other threads. They’ll nonchalant say things that insinuate a Rolex buyer needs to be in the upper 1%. It’s laughable

I knew people in undergrad without a penny to their name, but worked a part time job to save for a Rolex. It’s not that crazy. So when you have people claiming this downfall and TONS of hourly work across the US being shut down, it’s ridiculous to assume this isn’t a large part of the Rolex buying population. Plus all these guys flaunting on IG, bought to take a pic, wear a couple months and flip. Those days are gone.

Yeah, I think the grey/secondhand market will take a hit (already signs of it from what I have gleaned here on the forums). How much, however, depends on the supply out of ADs. At the moment, there is no supply, so while prices soften, stock will also become less and less available - that demand will have some influence on price.