Nothing changes. The waiting lists continue

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

Collectibles are all breaking new record prices

Just two days ago Nike air Jordan’s broke a new record


Just few weeks ago Chanel increase price 25% on hot models and there is a long line in major cities in china stores after the price hike
Note: Chanel is not hermes status where the Hermes birkin has to be on waitlist just like rolex sports models. All Chanel items are easily accessible like omega



As for those who said money printing has papered over the loss and this will all reverse after few months, I said don’t fight the Fed. We have done that in 2010-2020 through QE 1,2,3. Repos purchase last year September when overnight rates surge 10%. Actually the us economy would have collapse last year without fed printing hundreds of billions.
Yes last year!
Lol.. the fed can print as much so long there is demand for the dollar globally and latest charts I have seen is that foreign holders have increased even with fed printing faster than qe 1,2,& 3 combined. Three few months of printing has outpaced five to six years of previous three rounds of QE.

[JonaG]

I still believe that it is too early to predict what will happen. US-China relations at an all time low and this could pan out in a number of ways and effect the global economy.

I’ve been checking the TRF classifieds regularly and I’m seeing many of the same watches again and again. People are waiting for those pieces to come down I reckon. Here in Japan, Daytona prices are still through the roof and many of the dealers I go to have limited stocks of certain models.

It will be interesting when dept stores/ADs open up what demand there’ll be...very high I reckon!

[Marcjvr]

So this just happened




Other big names to go bankrupt so far because of the coronavirus:

j crew
Neiman Marcus
J.C. Penney
Pier 1
Gold’s gym (after 2019 was their best year ever)


If you honestly think this isn’t going to affect Rolex then I have some cruise ship stocks to sell you.


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[42itus]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

This part doesn't make AD's look good:

"One authorized dealer, who spoke to WatchPro on condition of anonymity, said he did not expect Rolex or Patek Philippe to significantly ramp up production of unicorn watches, adding that he thought it was good for the market that they remain too rare to be sold to walk-up customers.
“I don’t want to see [Rolex Submariner] Hulks in windows. Demand should exceed supply for these special watches,” he suggests."

I think a lot of people on this forum feel that way too. Some people buy watches because they appreciate watches. Lots of people buy Rolex because of their investment potential and the status is brings. If there was a Daytona in every window how many people would post an incoming?


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

So this just happened




Other big names to go bankrupt so far because of the coronavirus:

j crew
Neiman Marcus
J.C. Penney
Pier 1
Gold’s gym (after 2019 was their best year ever)


If you honestly think this isn’t going to affect Rolex then I have some cruise ship stocks to sell you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Covid-19 accelerated the demise of those retailers, but they were in trouble well before Covid and Rolex was doing just fine.

The Gym I can see having trouble, but many people are focusing on technology based home workouts before Covid, so the days of the "gym" for the casual user were starting to become numbered.

I do think Non-Rolex AD are in trouble. If Rolex or (Patek)isn't your main line, then their will be dark times.

I think factory boutiques for Omega, IWC, Panerai, Hublot, Breitling, are in a real pickle. BUT they were in a pickle BEFORE Covid-19, due to the near complete dominance of Rolex.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by 42itus

I think a lot of people on this forum feel that way too. Some people buy watches because they appreciate watches. Lots of people buy Rolex because of their investment potential and the status is brings. If there was a Daytona in every window how many people would post an incoming?


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Exclusivity is a major tenet of modern luxury goods. If it is too available, then it is undesirable for the majority who don't see Rolex as a simply a tool for spelunking (mountain climbing, deep sea diving...etc) and nothing more.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

So this just happened




Other big names to go bankrupt so far because of the coronavirus:

j crew
Neiman Marcus
J.C. Penney
Pier 1
Gold’s gym (after 2019 was their best year ever)


If you honestly think this isn’t going to affect Rolex then I have some cruise ship stocks to sell you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You're absolutely correct, there is much more disruption to come. All of our businesses and industries were scaled to meet the demand that existed pre-virus. Everyone likes to throw around the notion that certain businesses "won't be back" because certainty gets clicks in this crazy, (social) media driven age, but I believe the bigger bloodbath will be the businesses that continue to exist, but scaled down severely.

Lord only knows what travel will be like. My town has a great (and busy) little regional airport, and it only had 3,100 or so enplanements in April, vs 71,000 the previous year. Scale that across the travel industry. Hertz is just the first, stuck with a depreciating fleet that won't generate income and cannot be replaced. The car companies will then feel it as their fleet sales dry up. This will all cascade until well paid middle managers at auto companies are getting the boot.

So far this hasn't been a credit crisis like the last time, but then again the crest of the Great Depression was roughly 4 years after the market crashed in '29. I'm afraid we're in for a rough ride.

[dtwer]

People seem to believe Rolex would continue to supply the same amount of watches while the demand may fall, thus resulting in a fallen price. I don’t think so. I believe Rolex will ramp down production to keep supply below demand.

[jamestucker]

When greys start offering below retail for Daytonas, GMTs and Hulks flippers will drop out and things will change.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by jamestucker

When greys start offering below retail for Daytonas, GMTs and Hulks flippers will drop out and things will change.

Well its getting very close. Especially for the BLNR - i mean very very close to MSRP.

Even the Daytona some Grays lowballing big big time. They dont even want the watch unless its 100% guaranteed for them to flip it pretty much the same day as they get it.

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Well its getting very close. Especially for the BLNR - i mean very very close to MSRP.

Even the Daytona some Grays lowballing big big time. They dont even want the watch unless its 100% guaranteed for them to flip it pretty much the same day as they get it.

Exactly

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=743768

The grey dealer is Watchfinder and they normally pay well.

[42itus]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Exclusivity is a major tenet of modern luxury goods. If it is too available, then it is undesirable for the majority who don't see Rolex as a simply a tool for spelunking (mountain climbing, deep sea diving...etc) and nothing more.

Absolutely agree. That’s what I admire about Rolex. They know got to control the supply and keep demand red hot.


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[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by peterpl

What people are forgetting is that 90% of Rolex buyers are not the top 1% of money makers in recent years.

The hype was not caused by the top 1% of income earners/rich lists all scrambling and hoarding hyped models which a recession doesnt affect. LOL

It was caused by the speculators, the young guns trying to flex and social media. I would say the current economic environment WOULD affect 90% plus of current buyers rather than the other way around.

The target audience of Rolex is NOT the top 1% that are immune to all of this. Just look at the "What do you do for a living thread". 99% of ppl in there are regular joe blow hard working people - very very far from top 1%. In fact not even top 5%or 10% of earners LOL.

This economic disaster would affect MOST Rolex buyers.

Lots of numbers there. What’s your source for all those stats? Would love to read.

Or is it just what you believe?

[Yess]

Originally Posted by dtwer

People seem to believe Rolex would continue to supply the same amount of watches while the demand may fall, thus resulting in a fallen price. I don’t think so. I believe Rolex will ramp down production to keep supply below demand.

This kind of statement falls (mostly) on deaf ears around here. Not sure why... Maybe some want to see a Hulk in the case below MSRP, or others want to see greys take a beating?

Either way, Rolex have absolutely no interest, or more importantly, need, to harm their brand by oversupply. It's not going to happen. If they start seeing SS models sitting in the AD's they'll cut supply down to whatever it takes to keep the exclusivity of the brand the main focus. They don't need money in the short to medium term.

[subcsteve]

Rolex are indeed a very unique organisation and could probably keep the factory shut and staff on full pay for a year or more.

What I do question is can their retail model survive? The retail stores (in the UK) are typically public listed companies and do have shareholders who will expect growth and a return. In addition Rolex retail is a prime candidate for disruption, how long can your customer facing stores continue to provide shocking customer service and lack of transparency before the brand suffers?

If I was Rolex I would be looking to control the whole sales process, a digital direct model would provide more control and potentially more profit and totally achievable with a Digital by default retail model which I think where the major economies are heading.

[Moondoggy]

You have cash. I would rather have it in a tangible asset, push through it all as opposed to finances sitting in the "ether" like shares/deposits etc.

Just my 1c worth.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Yess

This kind of statement falls (mostly) on deaf ears around here. Not sure why... Maybe some want to see a Hulk in the case below MSRP, or others want to see greys take a beating?

Either way, Rolex have absolutely no interest, or more importantly, need, to harm their brand by oversupply. It's not going to happen. If they start seeing SS models sitting in the AD's they'll cut supply down to whatever it takes to keep the exclusivity of the brand the main focus. They don't need money in the short to medium term.

100%.

I really don’t get some of these comments on here. The animosity towards Rolex and/or secondary dealers really doesn’t make much sense because it isn’t going to change the facts. Watches have become a market. Rolex seeks control over how that market is supplied. It’s imperfect and can be frustrating from a customer point of view, but that’s part of their strategy.

If these things bother you, go buy another brand that isn’t as susceptible to all of this. Rolex doesn’t owe anyone the right to buy anything at MSRP.

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

There’s only inflation...

The fed will monetise all debts


And to save the real economy, by printing loads of money and direct distribute to citizens

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by ronricks

People were saying “wait 3 months” back in Feb. Now it’s wait 3 months again? Make up your minds.

Well, if they keep repeating it, then at some time they are bound to be right, and then they get to say “See, I told you so three months ago”

[IR201]

It's interesting to me when an economic downturn is caused by a major public health threat. The pandemic has been a stark reminder of our mortality - that time is not guaranteed. Perhaps for some any economic conservatism is offset by living for today. Buy that Rolex or other luxury good you always wanted because who knows how long you've got.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by ronricks

People were saying “wait 3 months” back in Feb. Now it’s wait 3 months again? Make up your minds.

In feb not a single country in the world was locked down and the US was still treating covid-19 it as a novelty/joke. Heck I raised rents on 2 of my properties in Feb. Last month I gave reductions of 50% rent to some of my tenants.

April-May-June will be the worst hit and the impacts of that wont reflect on the Rolex prices until Sept/Oct/Nov.

Just look at the BLNR now. $15k was the mark back in Dec or so. Now they are selling for $12s from grays and high $10s, low $11s on Facebook private sales. The grays are pretty much offering MSRP now for serious deals and below MSRP to tell you to F off.

Prices have softened 100% across all watches Patek, AP and Rolex. The hyped models are getting hit hardest. SS White Daytona hit $27k at peak. Now selling easily at $21k-$22k at grays and $18-$19k for private sales for white dials and even lower for black dials. Thats a big drop since Dec last year.

[Citystar31]

Stopped into a local Grey/jeweler yesterday to get started on a custom Sub date and was informed another customer walked into a local AD and snagged a Batman with no prior purchase history and it was in stock on the shelves!

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Listen, industry insiders want to create th illusion of business as normal and not scare folks. No salesman ever says wow, demand has died, haven’t seen a costumer in weeks. Just look and watch the gray market. Same watches are sitting there and in the sales section once hit watches like the 5 digit gmt are not sold after several pages of bumps. The top .0001 percent may not be impacted but everyone else is or will be, and there is not enough .0001 per centers to keep demand at levels prepandemic; it’s simply math.

This


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[ronricks]

Originally Posted by peterpl

In feb not a single country in the world was locked down and the US was still treating covid-19 it as a novelty/joke. Heck I raised rents on 2 of my properties in Feb. Last month I gave reductions of 50% rent to some of my tenants.

April-May-June will be the worst hit and the impacts of that wont reflect on the Rolex prices until Sept/Oct/Nov.

Just look at the BLNR now. $15k was the mark back in Dec or so. Now they are selling for $12s from grays and high $10s, low $11s on Facebook private sales. The grays are pretty much offering MSRP now for serious deals and below MSRP to tell you to F off.

Prices have softened 100% across all watches Patek, AP and Rolex. The hyped models are getting hit hardest. SS White Daytona hit $27k at peak. Now selling easily at $21k-$22k at grays and $18-$19k for private sales for white dials and even lower for black dials. Thats a big drop since Dec last year.

People were predicting massive doom and gloom on here back in Feb for the future. States are now starting to open up. Rolex supply is nil from the factory right now to keep saying “wait three months” is a bit dubious. If you say it long enough of course eventually you will be right.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by ronricks

People were predicting massive doom and gloom on here back in Feb for the future. States are now starting to open up. Rolex supply is nil from the factory right now to keep saying “wait three months” is a bit dubious. If you say it long enough of course eventually you will be right.

Are you saying the majority of Rolex customers will NOT be affected by the mass employment and economic downturn?

Think about that VERY VERY carefully for a minute. Then ask yourself who is the target audience for Rolex. Is it the top 1% that never gets affected by any recession or downturn or is it the masses and 90% of their customers are normal hard working people?

People only talking about pent up demand and no supply from geneva. Yeah thats only one side. No one talking about that the demand has plummeted and discretionary spending is at an all time low in which the majority of Rolex customers belong in this cohort of ppl. Anyone even suggesting that this corona virus impact is causing a spike in demand in luxury watches is out of their freakin mind. LOL - especailly ROLEX whos main customers are guys that work regular 9-5 jobs and save years and years to own one. Come on man.

[Stripiest]

Isn't there a distinction to be made between "Rolex will be fine" and "Rolex ADs will be fine"? Rolex's ownership structure insulates it from short term considerations. But if ADs aren't selling watches, they won't pay the rent or the salary bills. Further restriction on supply is not likely to help some of the marginal members of the AD network. In my home town (the town where I grew up in the North West of England), the Rolex AD went out of business a couple of years ago, because it couldn't sell enough luxury stuff in a town where the local economy had massively deteriorated from its heyday. Maybe a smaller AD network will be the result.

[DG123]

Originally Posted by Stripiest

Isn't there a distinction to be made between "Rolex will be fine" and "Rolex ADs will be fine"? Rolex's ownership structure insulates it from short term considerations. But if ADs aren't selling watches, they won't pay the rent or the salary bills. Further restriction on supply is not likely to help some of the marginal members of the AD network. In my home town (the town where I grew up in the North West of England), the Rolex AD went out of business a couple of years ago, because it couldn't sell enough luxury stuff in a town where the local economy had massively deteriorated from its heyday. Maybe a smaller AD network will be the result.

For the past 10 years Rolex corporate has been reducing the number of the brand's authorized distributors. This has nothing to do with the economy , it's just a business strategy whereby Rolex corporate prefers to have fewer dealers.

[DG123]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I think factory boutiques for Omega, IWC, Panerai, Hublot, Breitling, are in a real pickle. BUT they were in a pickle BEFORE Covid-19, due to the near complete dominance of Rolex.

Rolex corporate does not own the Rolex Boutiques. Do you happen to know if
the boutiques for the brands you mention (Omega , Panerai etc...)are owned by the brand company or independently owned ?

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Are you saying the majority of Rolex customers will NOT be affected by the mass employment and economic downturn?

Think about that VERY VERY carefully for a minute. Then ask yourself who is the target audience for Rolex. Is it the top 1% that never gets affected by any recession or downturn or is it the masses and 90% of their customers are normal hard working people?

People only talking about pent up demand and no supply from geneva. Yeah thats only one side. No one talking about that the demand has plummeted and discretionary spending is at an all time low in which the majority of Rolex customers belong in this cohort of ppl. Anyone even suggesting that this corona virus impact is causing a spike in demand in luxury watches is out of their freakin mind. LOL - especailly ROLEX whos main customers are guys that work regular 9-5 jobs and save years and years to own one. Come on man.

I’m saying people that keep repeating “wait 3 months” don’t know a damn thing. Nobody knows what is going to happen. Things change and often do.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by ronricks

I’m saying people that keep repeating “wait 3 months” don’t know a damn thing. Nobody knows what is going to happen. Things change and often do.

+1. Couldn’t have said it better.

There’s an abundance of people here who can see the future and understand more about Rolex and watch economics than perhaps Rolex itself.