Is the Submariner overrated?

[214270Explorer]

Who gives a crud about some video blogger's opinions.

They have theirs, and the rest of us have our own. Or, we SHOULD have our own self-made ones.

I guess there is some entertainment value in the blogs, though?

[JChips]

Originally Posted by csaltphoto

I agree with this too. Like Trijicons/Elcan are some extremely well built and hard wearing tools but nice to have irons for back up. If you have to know the time... I'd still pick Rolex.

Yes, for sure, there is safety in irons. The Rolex is also a modern equivalent of Bhat gold, should you need to grease the wheel. Hahahahaha.

[JChips]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Possibly.

But and because, it’s not a watch alone anymore. Rolex is now part of the asset class. And I doubt people are ‘willing’ to pay, they just have to because it’s seen as an investment. There’s a psychology to it and let’s not forget something, if Rolex believes a sub is worth $5k over MSRP, they’d charge for it.

What they’re doing is creating scarcity to protect the brand from dips they saw in the 90s and the housing bubble.

Again, it’s not about watches. It’s about the brand and creating demand to those who’d never consider buying a $15k watch, in order to hedge against dips.

But there are those who’d pay $15k for a wearable investment and drive a $300 per month vw. Just look at the threads..? Many seem like they can’t put in the effort to understand or negotiate their cell contract and bill or a mortgage renewal but they want a PhD in Rolex? Cmon, man. Order a watch and wait a bit at MSRP. Nobody is forcing anyone to pay above.

This is now beyond watches and a hobby.

I know nothing about economics and economic modeling, but unless you propose that there is a bubble in the Rolex market, ready to pop at any moment, wouldn’t the current market price be exactly what it’s worth ? Neither overpriced or underpriced?

For the record, I wouldn’t - and haven’t - paid a dollar over MSRP either, but that’s not really the point, is it?

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by JRell

I see a lot of posts around omega divers being better. I am a sub owner, not a diver (I know blasphemy), heck I don’t even like the water period. With some quick research, I don’t see that much of a difference functionally between the sub and omega. That being said, am I the only one that just can’t stand the look of the omega seamaster? I want to like it, easy piece to add to the collection, I just don’t get the odd shape of the bezel. Many of the dials as well, that wavy line look, just not for me. Now if I am 300 meters down swimming with great white sharks, I guess I would have to do more research! That being said, overrated, look at the aftermarket value of the seamaster vs sub. I think market value is considered with rating, and sub easily has this beat.

I don't like the look of the seamster either - wavy lines, etc. - but that's not the only comparable. The planet ocean has a much more classic diver look and the classic black and blue dial/bezel models come in a variety of sizes - 39.5, 42, 43.5 - and have awesome features for half the price of the sub (after factoring in a discount).

[tjs1295]

Loved the previous generation Omega Diver. Every bit as good as my SubC. Gifted it to my brother, otherwise I'd still wear it 50:50 with sub. Don't like the look or size of new model.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

I don't like the look of the seamster either - wavy lines, etc. - but that's not the only comparable. The planet ocean has a much more classic diver look and the classic black and blue dial/bezel models come in a variety of sizes - 39.5, 42, 43.5 - and have awesome features for half the price of the sub (after factoring in a discount).

Ok just looked it up...the blue dial is pretty sweet! Got me

[zjd168]

at its price range I can't think of any other non Rolex diver watch I want to buy, so the simple answer is no

[904VT]

Nothing beats a SS Submariner/Sub Date at MSRP. Nothing.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Blancpain

Tell us how you really feel

[Rexplorer214270]

Originally Posted by m j b

The perceived retained value is a real thing. Reputation is earned. Daily wearer, absolutely.

Can you find a comparable quality watch for less money? Yes.

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by JChips

I know nothing about economics and economic modeling, but unless you propose that there is a bubble in the Rolex market, ready to pop at any moment, wouldn’t the current market price be exactly what it’s worth ? Neither overpriced or underpriced?

For the record, I wouldn’t - and haven’t - paid a dollar over MSRP either, but that’s not really the point, is it?

Every market is in a bubble right now.


Deflation in rent, home values, jobs, new cars, factory orders etc... where do you think priorities will lie?

Sometimes you simply need to use common sense. Not rely solely on macro economic theories.

[JChips]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Every market is in a bubble right now.


Deflation in rent, home values, jobs, new cars, factory orders etc... where do you think priorities will lie?

Sometimes you simply need to use common sense. Not rely solely on macro economic theories.

Fair enough. I’m tracking on that. I guess the question is whether Rolex as a brand is immune to the bubble or if we can anticipate a collapse in price / value ?


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[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by JChips

Fair enough. I’m tracking on that. I guess the question is whether Rolex as a brand is immune to the bubble or if we can anticipate a collapse in price / value ?


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No.

Only a true monopoly or duopoly is typically immune from negative market forces. What Rolex is doing is separating their brand from the watch all together and creating an asset class to hedge.

The whole point of throttling production and allowing the secondary market to run is to protect the brand.

Similar to what Ferrari did in the early 90s limiting to 5k cars and almost encouraging the auction houses in Japan and Europe to inflate used and nearly new values.

Same thing is happening with watches (mostly Rolex) today.

And I’m still not convinced Rolex didn’t have a proxy buy that Newman watch.

This is all my personal spec but Rolex is clever.

[Marcjvr]

In days before the artificial shortage they couldn’t give Subs away for anywhere near MSRP

It was the exact same iconic watch back then so what has changed...the hype.

Great watches no doubt but hard to argue they aren’t currently overrated now.







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[JRell]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

In days before the artificial shortage they couldn’t give Subs away for anywhere near MSRP

It was the exact same iconic watch back then so what has changed...the hype.

Great watches no doubt but hard to argue they aren’t currently overrated now.







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This was a long time ago!

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by JRell

This was a long time ago!

Not really. It is like that all the way up to 2016. A mere 4 years ago. But the exact same watches suddenly go for 40-50% more

Look at hulks back then. You could pick one up like new for < $8k

To me it is proof the hype has led to the prices being driven up.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Not really. It is like that all the way up to 2015. A mere 5 years ago. But the exact same watches suddenly go for 40-50% more

Look at hulks back then. You could pick one up like new for < $8k

To me it is proof the hype has led to the prices being driven up.

Consider, in 2012, that was a pre-owned watch. I know it says never worn, but the msrp back then was 7500. You think reselling it for less than $1000 is a big depreciation? I think this is a great example even back then how it held its value. Yes today over msrp is crazy, but I think when people say holds their value, they don’t mean make a profit.

[JChips]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

No.

Only a true monopoly or duopoly is typically immune from negative market forces. What Rolex is doing is separating their brand from the watch all together and creating an asset class to hedge.

The whole point of throttling production and allowing the secondary market to run is to protect the brand.

Similar to what Ferrari did in the early 90s limiting to 5k cars and almost encouraging the auction houses in Japan and Europe to inflate used and nearly new values.

Same thing is happening with watches (mostly Rolex) today.

And I’m still not convinced Rolex didn’t have a proxy buy that Newman watch.

This is all my personal spec but Rolex is clever.

I agree, again. I’m certain that Rolex is doing whatever they can to manipulate and control the market. As any good company should be. They are simply attempting to protect the blood line.

But wouldn’t that figure into the question of whether Rolex is more or less immune to a bubble ? Certainly, Rolex’s track record of market dominance and branding should figure into the question ?


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[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by JChips

I agree, again. I’m certain that Rolex is doing whatever they can to manipulate and control the market. As any good company should be. They are simply attempting to protect the blood line.

But wouldn’t that figure into the question of whether Rolex is more or less immune to a bubble ? Certainly, Rolex’s track record of market dominance and branding should figure into the question ?


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Rolex is not immune to a bubble. That’s why they’re doing what they’re doing. They’ve lived through several.

[JChips]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Rolex is not immune to a bubble. That’s why they’re doing what they’re doing. They’ve lived through several.

Right. I think we are saying the same thing.... hahahahaha not immune, but seems to be pretty resistant


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

In days before the artificial shortage they couldn’t give Subs away for anywhere near MSRP

It was the exact same iconic watch back then so what has changed...the hype.

Great watches no doubt but hard to argue they aren’t currently overrated now.







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is hilarious! Why I won’t ever pay a premium. I have a serious feeling these days will come back eventually. There’s absolutely nothing special between a watch that couldn’t move at $7200 new then versus $10,000 used now.

[jusrich718]

i love a sub with a black dial

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

This is hilarious! Why I won’t ever pay a premium. I have a serious feeling these days will come back eventually. There’s absolutely nothing special between a watch that couldn’t move at $7200 new then versus $10,000 used now.

This was 10 years ago, 2010. Was pre-owned.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by JRell

This was 10 years ago, 2010. Was pre-owned.

Oh okay. Well let me use a personal anecdote. I bought mine new from a grey for $7500 in 2016

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Oh okay. Well let me use a personal anecdote. I bought mine new from a grey for $7500 in 2016

Great price!

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by JRell

Great price!

Same watch!

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by JRell

This was 10 years ago, 2010. Was pre-owned.

In early 2016 you could find subs for around $6,500 in mint condition. Just go look in the for sale section here.

I even walked into an AD in St Thomas and tried on a 116610 and the salesperson immediately offered “I can give you a great discount”. Cases were full of subs back then.

I honestly wouldn’t even pay MSRP for a current sub. Maybe at 10% off MSRP. It’s a great watch but it’s still just a mass produced luxury item.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

In early 2016 you could find subs for around $6,500 in mint condition. Just go look in the for sale section here.

I even walked into an AD in St Thomas and tried on a 116610 and the salesperson immediately offered “I can give you a great discount”. Cases were full of subs back then.

I honestly wouldn’t even pay MSRP for a current sub. Maybe at 10% off MSRP. It’s a great watch but it’s still just a mass produced luxury item.

Don’t know what the say, prices have gone up! People still buy.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by JRell

Don’t know what the say, prices have gone up! People still buy.

Yip no doubt about it the last few years have been absolute boom times for Rolex. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues down the line.

[Robf52]

Overrated? No, not with its' quality, dependability, robustness, serviceability, longevity, pride of ownership, and a world-wide plane ticket home if need be. Pretty good value for money I would say.