Scarcity of Rolex leading to a possible brand crisis.

[stewester]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Supplies will return to normal. Covid hit production. Fiscal stimulus. People have abnormal amounts of disposable income and time due to Covid. People becoming amateur flippers due to Covid. There is record unfulfilled demand for lots of other things as well. Not just Rolex. Inflation is increasing. It is a perfect storm. And yet people think (wish) what is happening now will just continue

Rolex is building to increase production levels to higher than ever before in the next few years.

Why on these boards Rolex shortages and a crappy customer experience is so relished tells me there are a lot of people here who are flippers. Or people who somehow like that their watch has not dropped in value or has even increased a bit. Perhaps they like the supposed exclusivity (not in reality). But if your Rolex is intended for your wrist then being able to get a watch quicker and have a good experience should be welcomed. And to even get a discount or get a bargain on the used market - great. All good if you're actually interested in the watches themselves.

But listening to some on these boards it would a disaster for them if you could walk into an AD and just pick up what you want. My view is what is happening now is not normal and will not continue.

Agree with this pretty much entirely. Well said.

[Kyle3130]

Originally Posted by Snerks

It will absolutely fail one day. Everything does. Might not be our lifetime, or generations to come, but at some point in the infinite of our universe, Rolex will fail.

I was being a bit facetious when I said “never” I understand everything fails eventually but like you said, it won’t be for at least a few generations.

[Lesnerelli23]

I disagree that Rolex will have a "crisis". I do agree that the difficulty in buying a desired piece is annoying but honestly this is a trend with any "in demand" product. Prepandemic, concert tickets were trading higher than face value, sneakers still are, cars have joined the list, and so on.

If Rolex sales tanked over this (they won't) the next popular brand would see the same issue crop up.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Im in the minority here, but there is a reason for the gray market...they serve a function. The gray market gives the AD a regular and predictable stream of buyers. As these watches get more and more expensive and only available to the oligarchs, they are becoming less and less relevant and their actual history and significance is in steep decline (simply read the is it safe posts here). The gray market takes them, holds them up to the highest bidder, pinching supply. Now the folks with money, they are happy to pay the premium to get those pics on the instabook. But its creates a false sense of demand, as folks see these circulated amongst celebs and the "feeling" is there is so much demand. The AD needs the gray, because there are less and less buying jewelry and other lux good, and this is documented in advertishing literature as millennials and younger generations are eschewing overt signs of hierarchy and privilege.

I have to say, more and more vacations I am on, plenty of folks that can afford Rolex are simply opting for Apple watches. Rolex is just becoming associated with run away capitalism and serious inequity. Thats not in my mind great brand building. A few of us know their history here, but 99% here see that some instaceleb has it and so they want it, and they too want to show it off. Shame, as they were given out to special forces and while expensive were attainable were purchased by service members during active military use and used as tools by some major players in the 20th century. Now, simply a way to flaunt ones status. Its to the point i'm embarrassed to wear the thing anymore.

So idealizing late stage capitalism is bad, but idealizing men with guns going to countries they were not born in to lay the ground for capitalism is… good? I’m confused here. And while there is indeed the subset of remaining millennials who are seeking purpose before richess, they are followed by an ever more voracious gen Z which couldn’t get enough golden trinkets on their wrists, iced out and all.

[seabreeze60]

The standard rule in distribution is when a customer wants/needs a product that you cannot supply, they will look elsewhere. If they can’t find the desired brand elsewhere they will purchase a different brand. If they find that the product works, then you lost a customer.

I have heard over and over that 99% of people don’t notice which brand you are wearing so the line is thin.

Rolex is probably finding new customers as fast as they are losing them. But the tone on TRF has changed in the last 3 years.

This type of thread would not have gone in this direction. Hopefully the new Rolex customers enjoy the banter.

[A2-rolex]

I called the AP boutique in LA about interest in a Royal Oak and they point blank said "well not sure if you've seen the prices in the grey market, but you need to buy another $30k watch from us before we allocate a RO. You're still coming out on top because instead of spending $45k in grey for an RO, you can get two pieces from us over time"

I'm probably (actually most definitely) in the minority here and there will always be buyers out there regardless of process & time but it put me off from the brand especially as a first time buyer the way they positioned it.

[sj24k]

is this really still a conversation? rolex is one of the most successful and valuable brands of all time, and the current market situation is only making it stronger.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by Kyle3130

I was being a bit facetious when I said “never” I understand everything fails eventually but like you said, it won’t be for at least a few generations.

I think it depends entirely on how the Apple Watch and others revolutionize the health industry (unless Rolex transitions to that world.) As smart watches become better and better at predicting health outcomes, more and more of us will reluctantly starting wearing them over mechanical watches...especially older guys who happen to already be a big mechanical watch demographic. Apple is already the number one watch maker in the world, and, while some brands like Rolex are currently benefitting from the hollowing out of the Swiss watch industry, I don't think that will last for multiple generations. I doubt even my 9 year old will care about my mechanicals when he's 50, just as I don't really care about wearing my grandfather's pocket watch. He already thinks my wife's Apple Watch is cooler than my mechanical "old fashion" watches.

[Gary Busey]

people are paying millions for pixelated rocks. there will be no brand crisis because of the scarcity or high cost of rolex

[Nanasaka90]

Originally Posted by samuel019

IMO the scarcity makes some people want it even more. Granted I said some.

I don’t believe The Rolling Stones logic applies here.

Could you kindly explain “The Rolling Stones logic”? I’m afraid I don’t know much ..


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[Nanasaka90]

Originally Posted by Danishtext

The mistake many people make is thinking that rolex is too big to fail.

Facts.


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[PaulChronometer]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Im in the minority here, but there is a reason for the gray market...they serve a function. The gray market gives the AD a regular and predictable stream of buyers. As these watches get more and more expensive and only available to the oligarchs, they are becoming less and less relevant and their actual history and significance is in steep decline (simply read the is it safe posts here). The gray market takes them, holds them up to the highest bidder, pinching supply. Now the folks with money, they are happy to pay the premium to get those pics on the instabook. But its creates a false sense of demand, as folks see these circulated amongst celebs and the "feeling" is there is so much demand. The AD needs the gray, because there are less and less buying jewelry and other lux good, and this is documented in advertishing literature as millennials and younger generations are eschewing overt signs of hierarchy and privilege.

I have to say, more and more vacations I am on, plenty of folks that can afford Rolex are simply opting for Apple watches. Rolex is just becoming associated with run away capitalism and serious inequity. Thats not in my mind great brand building. A few of us know their history here, but 99% here see that some instaceleb has it and so they want it, and they too want to show it off. Shame, as they were given out to special forces and while expensive were attainable were purchased by service members during active military use and used as tools by some major players in the 20th century. Now, simply a way to flaunt ones status. Its to the point i'm embarrassed to wear the thing anymore.

It's a pity, but I fully agree. Business-wise Rolex may be doing great, but what the brand stands for is definitely changing. I wouldn't go so far to say that this will lead to a crisis for Rolex, but it's clear that the new customer base (the flexing insta-celebs etc.) is quite volatile, consisting of buyers who don't intrinsically care about their watches. Just look at the "content" in the YouTube channels produced by some (controversial) grey dealers. I think they are doing a lot of harm to the brand.

All of this impacted me as well. Over the last year, I started getting less and less comfortable with all the Rolex flexing that one sees online and elsewhere. I very much liked my 39mm Explorer and was thinking about trading it for the new 36mm (I have a small wrist). After calling and visiting a couple of ADs it became clear that this would be virtually impossible, except perhaps if I would bundle it with another 40K-ish watch like a Breguet. At that point I realized that Rolex' market had changed ­­­­­– which of course is driving the demand and grey market prices. On top of that Rolexes are being recognized more by people with wrong intentions, especially in large cities.

In the end I sold my Explorer to an AD's pre-owned dept. and acquired a Tudor Prince 36mm date+day in steel (from a grey dealer abroad). I love its under-the-radar tool watch vibe and I'm totally cool with it.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

So idealizing late stage capitalism is bad, but idealizing men with guns going to countries they were not born in to lay the ground for capitalism is… good? I’m confused here. And while there is indeed the subset of remaining millennials who are seeking purpose before richess, they are followed by an ever more voracious gen Z which couldn’t get enough golden trinkets on their wrists, iced out and all.

No need to get defensive, I’m clearly in a monitory here and there is nothing to confused by. I said nothing about firearms and that’s a whole other bag. The data on gen z indicates that they are not fans of hierarchy and privilege either. I cited a Deloitte study in another post about this. Now, they have status too of course, but younger generations are moving away from the overt displays. There status is based on other things and I’m not arguing that’s better.

I am just saying for me the excessive hype about obtaining these watches, people getting attacked for them, with the realities that most of the world lives on like 10 bucks a day, i feel ridiculous at times parading around in a watch that’s 12k. If not that it was a gift from so long ago, I would be rid of it. I mean I hate to think that what someday I gift the watch to my son and he gets mugged for the thing.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by PaulChronometer

It's a pity, but I fully agree. Business-wise Rolex may be doing great, but what the brand stands for is definitely changing. I wouldn't go so far to say that this will lead to a crisis for Rolex, but it's clear that the new customer base (the flexing insta-celebs etc.) is quite volatile, consisting of buyers who don't intrinsically care about their watches. Just look at the "content" in the YouTube channels produced by some (controversial) grey dealers. I think they are doing a lot of harm to the brand.

All of this impacted me as well. Over the last year, I started getting less and less comfortable with all the Rolex flexing that one sees online and elsewhere. I very much liked my 39mm Explorer and was thinking about trading it for the new 36mm (I have a small wrist). After calling and visiting a couple of ADs it became clear that this would be virtually impossible, except perhaps if I would bundle it with another 40K-ish watch like a Breguet. At that point I realized that Rolex' market had changed ­­­­­– which of course is driving the demand and grey market prices. On top of that Rolexes are being recognized more by people with wrong intentions, especially in large cities.

In the end I sold my Explorer to an AD's pre-owned dept. and acquired a Tudor Prince 36mm date+day in steel (from a grey dealer abroad). I love its under-the-radar tool watch vibe and I'm totally cool with it.

Agreed! Thats a nice choice of watches as well.


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[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by PaulChronometer

It's a pity, but I fully agree. Business-wise Rolex may be doing great, but what the brand stands for is definitely changing. I wouldn't go so far to say that this will lead to a crisis for Rolex, but it's clear that the new customer base (the flexing insta-celebs etc.) is quite volatile, consisting of buyers who don't intrinsically care about their watches. Just look at the "content" in the YouTube channels produced by some (controversial) grey dealers. I think they are doing a lot of harm to the brand.

All of this impacted me as well. Over the last year, I started getting less and less comfortable with all the Rolex flexing that one sees online and elsewhere. I very much liked my 39mm Explorer and was thinking about trading it for the new 36mm (I have a small wrist). After calling and visiting a couple of ADs it became clear that this would be virtually impossible, except perhaps if I would bundle it with another 40K-ish watch like a Breguet. At that point I realized that Rolex' market had changed ­­­­­– which of course is driving the demand and grey market prices. On top of that Rolexes are being recognized more by people with wrong intentions, especially in large cities.

In the end I sold my Explorer to an AD's pre-owned dept. and acquired a Tudor Prince 36mm date+day in steel (from a grey dealer abroad). I love its under-the-radar tool watch vibe and I'm totally cool with it.

I have exactly the same feelings and also prefer old Tudor now. I'm into cars, too, and some of my car friends in their late 30s, who have valuable car collections (cars from the 1970s-1990s) are feeling the same way and looking at old Tudors, because you get the quality without the "flex."

Having been a teen in the '90s, I'm personally hoping that society gets back to the point where showing wealth is a bit embarrassing. I never bought Rolex watches for anything other than the fact that I like solid, well made equipment.

[PaulChronometer]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Having been a teen in the '90s, I'm personally hoping that society gets back to the point where showing wealth is a bit embarrassing. I never bought Rolex watches for anything other than the fact that I like solid, well made equipment.

Same here!

[Laostuh]

I don't think Rolex will ever have a "brand crisis". As the availability of Rolex now is near impossible to get, I've been peaking at other brands like Omega. I almost placed an order on a Speedmaster Moonphase. But for whatever reason, I held back because I want to put that money towards my 3rd ever Rolex and am actually considering paying a premium to get the Hulk I want.

Maybe I'll revisit the Omega when I've got the Rolex collection that ticks all my boxes.

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by PaulChronometer

It's a pity, but I fully agree. Business-wise Rolex may be doing great, but what the brand stands for is definitely changing. I wouldn't go so far to say that this will lead to a crisis for Rolex, but it's clear that the new customer base (the flexing insta-celebs etc.) is quite volatile, consisting of buyers who don't intrinsically care about their watches. Just look at the "content" in the YouTube channels produced by some (controversial) grey dealers. I think they are doing a lot of harm to the brand.

All of this impacted me as well. Over the last year, I started getting less and less comfortable with all the Rolex flexing that one sees online and elsewhere. I very much liked my 39mm Explorer and was thinking about trading it for the new 36mm (I have a small wrist). After calling and visiting a couple of ADs it became clear that this would be virtually impossible, except perhaps if I would bundle it with another 40K-ish watch like a Breguet. At that point I realized that Rolex' market had changed ­­­­­– which of course is driving the demand and grey market prices. On top of that Rolexes are being recognized more by people with wrong intentions, especially in large cities.

In the end I sold my Explorer to an AD's pre-owned dept. and acquired a Tudor Prince 36mm date+day in steel (from a grey dealer abroad). I love its under-the-radar tool watch vibe and I'm totally cool with it.

A very interesting perspective

I too have felt that maybe the current exposure is a little too acute.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by Chester01

No need to get defensive, I’m clearly in a monitory here and there is nothing to confused by. I said nothing about firearms and that’s a whole other bag. The data on gen z indicates that they are not fans of hierarchy and privilege either. I cited a Deloitte study in another post about this. Now, they have status too of course, but younger generations are moving away from the overt displays. There status is based on other things and I’m not arguing that’s better.

I am just saying for me the excessive hype about obtaining these watches, people getting attacked for them, with the realities that most of the world lives on like 10 bucks a day, i feel ridiculous at times parading around in a watch that’s 12k. If not that it was a gift from so long ago, I would be rid of it. I mean I hate to think that what someday I gift the watch to my son and he gets mugged for the thing.

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“A few of us know their history here, but 99% here see that some instaceleb has it and so they want it, and they too want to show it off. Shame, as they were given out to special forces and while expensive were attainable were purchased by service members during active military use”

You are right, you did not openly mention firearms, so I take it the special forces and other service members with Rolex watches for active military use were all sitting at their desks at the home base making coffee for each other while collectively having nothing to do with any potential use of firearms by the force or organization they belonged to? That sure inspires more respect than the - admittedly somewhat pathetic, but otherwise entirely inoffensive - Insta-something living out man’s natural strive to adorn and embellish itself in front of the opposite gender… or the same or really whichever given or acquired gender, seeing as we should not discriminate against any orientation (big strong point of the armed forces too that).

But to your point, the fact of the matter remains that each time has its ideals. During the cold war, we all deluded ourselves into thinking we should hate and fear the respective other side of the iron curtain enough to spend unbelievable amounts of our productivity on weapons to defend against it. No wonder we also began to idealize these expensive purveyors of death and destruction as the warrantors of peace and freedom, which, at this sad point of geopolitics, they really became. But we are in a new world now, one where we slowly come to realize that sending boots on the ground is but a way for young folks to come home with PTSD, while wars drag on in sandy places over decades without any tangible benefits for anyone but those who sell the bombs and the tanks. So whether or not Deloitte believe gen Z will like Rolexes and whether or not they would do so for reasons you deem to be the right ones, I would submit that a diffuse reminiscence of military use is quite certainly no bit of a better reason. Because if that’s truly what rocks your boat, you should be putting some sand into the bezel mechanics of a Marathon, rather than complain about the availability of a luxury item which is loosely inspired at best by something that, 50 years ago, young kids with guns and black paint in their faces may have worn into what turned out to be a pointless battle decades later.

Because Rolex of today's day and age using our insecurities towards possible mates to siphon off our hard earned savings is pretty much the same as Bell Helicopter using our insecurities towards the eastern block to collect hard earned tax money for all the Hueys that burned in the south Asian jungle in the seventies… events from which I understand you are saying we should derive our appreciation for Rolexes.

If anything, Instaman is probably less of a capitalist than the kind folks in the defense industry. He’s likely just a dopamine junkie who got hooked on the likes the algorithm could spare for him.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

“A few of us know their history here, but 99% here see that some instaceleb has it and so they want it, and they too want to show it off. Shame, as they were given out to special forces and while expensive were attainable were purchased by service members during active military use”

You are right, you did not openly mention firearms, so I take it the special forces and other service members with Rolex watches for active military use were all sitting at their desks at the home base making coffee for each other while collectively having nothing to do with any potential use of firearms by the force or organization they belonged to? That sure inspires more respect than the - admittedly somewhat pathetic, but otherwise entirely inoffensive - Insta-something living out man’s natural strive to adorn and embellish itself in front of the opposite gender… or the same or really whichever given or acquired gender, seeing as we should not discriminate against any orientation (big strong point of the armed forces too that).

But to your point, the fact of the matter remains that each time has its ideals. During the cold war, we all deluded ourselves into thinking we should hate and fear the respective other side of the iron curtain enough to spend unbelievable amounts of our productivity on weapons to defend against it. No wonder we also began to idealize these expensive purveyors of death and destruction as the warrantors of peace and freedom, which, at this sad point of geopolitics, they really became. But we are in a new world now, one where we slowly come to realize that sending boots on the ground is but a way for young folks to come home with PTSD, while wars drag on in sandy places over decades without any tangible benefits for anyone but those who sell the bombs and the tanks. So whether or not Deloitte believe gen Z will like Rolexes and whether or not they would do so for reasons you deem to be the right ones, I would submit that a diffuse reminiscence of military use is quite certainly no bit of a better reason. Because if that’s truly what rocks your boat, you should be putting some sand into the bezel mechanics of a Marathon, rather than complain about the availability of a luxury item which is loosely inspired at best by something that, 50 years ago, young kids with guns and black paint in their faces may have worn into what turned out to be a pointless battle decades later.

My point was not that the fact that military people wore Rolex and so we all want one. My point was that they were the original gshocks, go anywhere, do anything, take a beating and were watches that could be purchased by folks even on military salaries. My point is that the history of the brand is being obscured by the hype. Rolex went from a reliable tool used by (not desk folks as you mention) real boots on the ground soldiers to a shiny status symbol and that’s the shame. Rolex has bought into their own success and went upmarket and slapping excess shine and 40 year old crockery on as bezels and passing that off as some new technology and that justifies the ever increasing prices. Not for me.


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[jinikari01]

I think its the other way around. More and more luxury brands are realizing exclusivity creates positive chaos from consumers. Eager to want more and buy a piece at any cost.
This is common practice in the shoe game and what is used to be in the exclusive streetwear brands. Ever heard of BAPE?
Back in its height of the brand, I remember paying close to triple the retail and paying overseas shipping just to own a piece of the hype.
So regardless of current circumstance around the world. If Rolex plays their hand right. The business will thrive and continue its crazy demand by the consumers.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by Chester01

My point was not that the fact that military people wore Rolex and so we all want one. My point was that they were the original gshocks, go anywhere, do anything, take a beating and were watches that could be purchased by folks even on military salaries. My point is that the history of the brand is being obscured by the hype. Rolex went from a reliable tool used by (not desk folks as you mention) real boots on the ground soldiers to a shiny status symbol and that’s the shame. Rolex has bought into their own success and went upmarket and slapping excess shine and 40 year old crockery on as bezels and passing that off as some new technology and that justifies the ever increasing prices. Not for me.


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But today, if we need a GShock… there is, well, the GShock. And many others like it. For that particular purpose, it is the much better tool in every respect. So isn’t it natural that a company seeking to make as much money as it can with as little effort as possible would shift its products towards another purpose where it does not have to fend off the objective superiority of modern electronics?

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

“A few of us know their history here, but 99% here see that some instaceleb has it and so they want it, and they too want to show it off. Shame, as they were given out to special forces and while expensive were attainable were purchased by service members during active military use”

You are right, you did not openly mention firearms, so I take it the special forces and other service members with Rolex watches for active military use were all sitting at their desks at the home base making coffee for each other while collectively having nothing to do with any potential use of firearms by the force or organization they belonged to? That sure inspires more respect than the - admittedly somewhat pathetic, but otherwise entirely inoffensive - Insta-something living out man’s natural strive to adorn and embellish itself in front of the opposite gender… or the same or really whichever given or acquired gender, seeing as we should not discriminate against any orientation (big strong point of the armed forces too that).

But to your point, the fact of the matter remains that each time has its ideals. During the cold war, we all deluded ourselves into thinking we should hate and fear the respective other side of the iron curtain enough to spend unbelievable amounts of our productivity on weapons to defend against it. No wonder we also began to idealize these expensive purveyors of death and destruction as the warrantors of peace and freedom, which, at this sad point of geopolitics, they really became. But we are in a new world now, one where we slowly come to realize that sending boots on the ground is but a way for young folks to come home with PTSD, while wars drag on in sandy places over decades without any tangible benefits for anyone but those who sell the bombs and the tanks. So whether or not Deloitte believe gen Z will like Rolexes and whether or not they would do so for reasons you deem to be the right ones, I would submit that a diffuse reminiscence of military use is quite certainly no bit of a better reason. Because if that’s truly what rocks your boat, you should be putting some sand into the bezel mechanics of a Marathon, rather than complain about the availability of a luxury item which is loosely inspired at best by something that, 50 years ago, young kids with guns and black paint in their faces may have worn into what turned out to be a pointless battle decades later.

Because Rolex of today's day and age using our insecurities towards possible mates to siphon off our hard earned savings is pretty much the same as Bell Helicopter using our insecurities towards the eastern block to collect hard earned tax money for all the Hueys that burned in the south Asian jungle in the seventies… events from which I understand you are saying we should derive our appreciation for Rolexes.

If anything, Instaman is probably less of a capitalist than the kind folks in the defense industry. He’s likely just a dopamine junkie who got hooked on the likes the algorithm could spare for him.

Lol someone please translate this for me! This is a site about Rolex, not the deep psychology of warfare and man himself.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by JRell

Lol someone please translate this for me! This is a site about Rolex, not the deep psychology of warfare and man himself.

Turns out the world is even more complicated than the watches in it :)

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Turns out the world is even more complicated than the watches in it :)

Indeed it is sir.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by JRell

Indeed it is sir.

But the gist of it was, don’t blame anyone for flexing indelicately with their shiny new Rolex, it’s human nature. It’s no worse than wearing a submariner to cosplay “special boat service” while getting all pompous about the “history”, which usually equates to a tale of very few benefiting parties among much human misery and great sums of ill-invested tax money.

[173rdabn]

HMMMM Interesting thoughts. However, I really don't agree with the premise.

[bob sims]

"no one goes to that restaurant any more. It's always too crowded."
Yogi Berra

[JSCP]

crisis in your mind or potential
buyers

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Nanasaka90

Could you kindly explain “The Rolling Stones logic”? I’m afraid I don’t know much ..


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“You can’t always get what you want but if you try real hard you get what you need”

I’m in the opinion you knew that. Just wanted to add some levity