Is there really a slowdown in Rolex secondary market?

[Ferrari-F430]

I've seen used Batgirls on the grey market for $15K-ish, and Sprites in the $16K's. That a huge dip from last year, and it's only going downward. If there was speculation about watches going out the back door from AD's to grey market dealers, the meat on the bone for flipping is sparse.

Let's hope us real collectors can once again get NIB watches from AD's soon! I've received nothing from my AD in the last two years and I hate waiting..

[Submariner868]

Originally Posted by BillA

front, back and side-doors

Trap doors…

[NAUI1982]

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

I've seen used Batgirls on the grey market for $15K-ish, and Sprites in the $16K's. That a huge dip from last year, and it's only going downward. If there was speculation about watches going out the back door from AD's to grey market dealers, the meat on the bone for flipping is sparse.

Let's hope us real collectors can once again get NIB watches from AD's soon! I've received nothing from my AD in the last two years and I hate waiting..

How do you explain Pepsi’s going to 22k still, though I can see the number of TD listings for them are growing dramatically! Still, price isn’t coming down on the Pepsi…

[NAUI1982]

Originally Posted by Bladeshot

LOL. I wondered if I was too vague. I see lots of Rolexes priced at points where I know they won’t sell. Prices are dropping. Whether it’s private owners like me or dealers, there is a lot of wishful thinking when setting asking price. It’s a buyers market, overall.

“Bag holding” = Folks who bought in too high are holding and holding and hoping to lose as little as possible. I certainly took a hit selling some of mine, last year. Glad I got them sold, then.

One example is a nice sub listed on TRF. I made a decent offer last fall. Only a few hundred apart. Seller decided to hold out for more money. Across the next 6 months, things have worsened and he will be forced to sell for less now than I offered back then. That scenario is the definition of “bag holding”.

Just another WIS who loves to trade.
@bladeandwatch1 on IG

I’ve had my eye on a PM Daytona here on TRF. The seller keeps lowering the price and bumping the listing. We’re now only $500 apart, and they’re still refusing to sell. Guess what, in a week, we will be a match and at that point, I’m no longer interested and we will be $1500 apart again.

Yup, market is softening, and quickly IMHO. I’m going out to see a few ADs this weekend, nad I’m guessing I will get what I’m looking for frankly, direct from an AD.

[BillA]

We have said all along there will be tough models to get like the Pepsi and ss daytona

[Ferrari-F430]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

How do you explain Pepsi’s going to 22k still, though I can see the number of TD listings for them are growing dramatically! Still, price isn’t coming down on the Pepsi…

Because Batgirls and Sprites are showing up in pretty good numbers, Pepsi's aren't. I've seen Pepsi's below the $20K's though, so they are going down a little.

[NAUI1982]

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

Because Batgirls and Sprites are showing up in pretty good numbers, Pepsi's aren't. I've seen Pepsi's below the $20K's though, so they are going down a little.

Just look on the forum here for sale. Lots of Pepsi. The watch chart numbers are wrong. You can’t find a Pepsi on Jubilee for less than 20k unless it’s 5 years old maybe, or on oyster. But listings are abundant here…

[4reRlxGuy]

My buddy who is a vintage dealer was at the last vegas trade show. New Pepsis with a recent 2024 card were selling around 21k supposedly.

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

How do you explain Pepsi’s going to 22k still, though I can see the number of TD listings for them are growing dramatically! Still, price isn’t coming down on the Pepsi…

Asking price and sales price are 2 very different things…


But I suspect Pepsi prices holding a bit has a lot to do with the news that they were being ‘discontinued’ because of production issues so they bumped up in price a little on the secondary market….

…they are dropping in the U.K. though, but not as much as batmans/ batgirls or Sprites that have taken a £10000 drop from their peak over here.

Almost on a weekly basis I keep thinking I haven’t seen those prices in a few years. Both large dealers like Watchfinder and smaller ones have prices dropping.

Subs are now below £10000 for the most part which isn’t that far above retail price over here….

[L8r]

I think WOS 5 year stock chart pretty much explains what’s happening, and the CPO program is a Hail Mary to buy time. Now they’re cutting into the gray market and getting a piece of it. I could be wrong, but we’ll see.
Jmo


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[L8r]

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[IGY]

To me the interesting take aways from that are 1) 16x current earnings for a multi country, multi location watch dealer. 2) Beta of >2. I'd be interested to read the bull sales pitch for these shares. Just read that Apollo sold their last stake in 2021.

[OG1982]

Softening

No offence, but has one been living under a rather large rock?


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[OG1982]

This is a price chart Rolex Panda Daytona (the golden child) watch chart for the last 3 years.

If this is softening, I’d hate to see an actual crash!




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[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by OG1982

This is a price chart Rolex Panda Daytona (the golden child) watch chart for the last 3 years.

If this is softening, I’d hate to see an actual crash!




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That spike in the middle should not have happened, in reality. It is an outlier, a result of a particular set of circumstances that resulted in the price skyrocketing over a very short space of time, and like any financial chart, if that happens, expect a correction soon after.

Draw a mean line from before the spike to now, and yes, it is just softening. If that spike had not happened, it wouldn’t be causing the panic we see everywhere on socials these days.

[OG1982]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

That spike in the middle should not have happened, in reality. It is an outlier, a result of a particular set of circumstances that resulted in the price skyrocketing over a very short space of time, and like any financial chart, if that happens, expect a correction soon after.

Draw a mean line from before the spike to now, and yes, it is just softening. If that spike had not happened, it wouldn’t be causing the panic we see everywhere on socials these days.

What’s the saying, if my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle…


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[OG1982]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

That spike in the middle should not have happened, in reality. It is an outlier, a result of a particular set of circumstances that resulted in the price skyrocketing over a very short space of time, and like any financial chart, if that happens, expect a correction soon after.

Draw a mean line from before the spike to now, and yes, it is just softening. If that spike had not happened, it wouldn’t be causing the panic we see everywhere on socials these days.

A mean line, like this one? Zoomed out to a 5 year chart. Takes us somewhere around the late £20 to 30k mark.

Still a crash then.


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[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by OG1982

A mean line, like this one? Zoomed out to a 5 year chart. Takes us somewhere around the late £20 to 30k mark.

Still a crash then.


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A crash would see these not selling at all and they would be dumping to well below $20k, everyone (traders) rushing to the door and desperately getting rid of watches for what they can get.
Has it crashed from the peak? I’d still argue no, it’s a market correction.
And your line - doesn’t follow to the prices where the are now, what you put is more of a continued uptrend which didn’t happen.

Just for what it’s worth, my guess would be, add another 5 years to that chart in the future and it’ll follow that trend line upwards a bit more closely.

We’re still in correction mode off that huge spike in the middle. Just my opinion based on what I see.

[OG1982]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

A crash would see these not selling at all and they would be dumping to well below $20k, everyone (traders) rushing to the door and desperately getting rid of watches for what they can get.
Has it crashed from the peak? I’d still argue no, it’s a market correction.
And your line - doesn’t follow to the prices where the are now, what you put is more of a continued uptrend which didn’t happen.

Just for what it’s worth, my guess would be, add another 5 years to that chart in the future and it’ll follow that trend line upwards a bit more closely.

We’re still in correction mode off that huge spike in the middle. Just my opinion based on what I see.

Time will tell, I guess none of us know for sure.


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[BillA]

The overpriced Pepsi’s are sitting and not selling so fast.
I think more people are waking up that these dealers are asking too much
As far as the BS rumor about the Pepsi being discontinued to drive up the price, it was probably started by watch dealers.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by OG1982

Time will tell, I guess none of us know for sure.


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Yeah definitely, no crystal ball chat from me, it won’t matter to me anyway cos I shan’t be selling anything or buying anything on the grey market in the future!

Originally Posted by BillA

The overpriced Pepsi’s are sitting and not selling so fast.
I think more people are waking up that these dealers are asking too much
As far as the BS rumor about the Pepsi being discontinued to drive up the price, it was probably started by watch dealers.

Agree, the grey dealers pushing that narrative on socials really spun up a good one. I don’t even think that many BLRO’s are sitting long with dealers, I think it’s more that they can’t actually get hold of many at the moment as they’re quite thin on the ground. Most adverts for watches for sale, probably don’t even have the watch in stock, and they just go hunting for one if they get an enquiry.

[Mr Ben]

Originally Posted by OG1982

A mean line, like this one? Zoomed out to a 5 year chart. Takes us somewhere around the late £20 to 30k mark.

Still a crash then.


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If you zoom right back to the full range, the chart shows about £13,200 in 2016. Adjusted for inflation, that’s about £17,500.

I’ve seen quite a few under £20k recently so we’re not miles away from an inflation adjusted 2016 number. The spike to £40k was just tulips.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

Just look on the forum here for sale. Lots of Pepsi. The watch chart numbers are wrong. You can’t find a Pepsi on Jubilee for less than 20k unless it’s 5 years old maybe, or on oyster. But listings are abundant here…

Presumably ‘abundant’ because they aren’t selling…

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Presumably ‘abundant’ because they aren’t selling…

Indeed…. And theres a difference between asking price and sold price…..

[BillA]

Some of the dealers are in a tough spot because they bought many months ago when prices were higher. Now they are significantly lower so they are holding expensive inventory. So do I feel sorry for them? Absolutely not. These were the guys buying from the back door of AD’s during the height of Covid and selling at huge markups to us. Also these were the guys buying at low prices when people needed to cash out.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by OG1982

Softening

No offence, but has one been living under a rather large rock?


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lol dealers must be hoarding pieces where you live

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by OG1982

Time will tell, I guess none of us know for sure.

Easy solution for those concerned:
Simply wait about 8 to 10 years for the next central bank bubble... or bust depending on your timing.

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

I’ve had my eye on a PM Daytona here on TRF. The seller keeps lowering the price and bumping the listing. We’re now only $500 apart, and they’re still refusing to sell. Guess what, in a week, we will be a match and at that point, I’m no longer interested and we will be $1500 apart again.

Yup, market is softening, and quickly IMHO. I’m going out to see a few ADs this weekend, nad I’m guessing I will get what I’m looking for frankly, direct from an AD.

Just another WIS who loves to trade.
@bladeandwatch1 on IG

[Ferrari-F430]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

A crash would see these not selling at all and they would be dumping to well below $20k, everyone (traders) rushing to the door and desperately getting rid of watches for what they can get.
Has it crashed from the peak? I’d still argue no, it’s a market correction.
And your line - doesn’t follow to the prices where the are now, what you put is more of a continued uptrend which didn’t happen.

Just for what it’s worth, my guess would be, add another 5 years to that chart in the future and it’ll follow that trend line upwards a bit more closely.

We’re still in correction mode off that huge spike in the middle. Just my opinion based on what I see.

I would not be surprised to see them below $25K in the next few months... and they could get close to $20K-ish if you ask me. The over-hyped crowd is over. Still a good markup for it though.

[RichardBartlett]

Originally Posted by majidessa

Rolex is the largest producer of luxury watches with more than 1.1 million watch per year. It is bound to happen for certain models within their line up however, SS Daytona, GMT, and Subs will always be less accessible in order for the brand to maintain hype and status.

When I was in Barceclona recently, many models were available for walk in customers like SS deep-sea, Sea Dweller and some precious metal watches like full gold Sub or lady watches. I was also able to grab Explorer I 40mm which was an exhibition model.

I expect things to soften but once US market data start to reflect more certainty and interest rates are reduced we might see an increased demand.

I'll be back in Barca early next year so hopefully an even better choice..