Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

RG olive DD around $51.5 to $52k, rose gold Skydwellers now close to retail with tax.

How much further down do you see the DD headed? Retail + tax?


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Morgan Stanley just released a report (14th oct) saying that it will continue in Q4.

https://www.watchpro.com/patek-phili...h-brand-in-q3/

the funniest part of that article is their 'current' price level is using ASKS as a price point. That is not the value, NONE are selling for that.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

How much further down do you see the DD headed? Retail + tax?


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I guess will end up very slightly above retail

[ExplorerI]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

How much further down do you see the DD headed? Retail + tax?


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Most day dates already well below retail plus tax. Only a handful are still fetching more.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Haha same! No intrinsic value and in a weak economy, no reason why production models won’t go for roughly retail +/-

I’m tired of all this investment and hype BS. was into watches 8 years ago, and when I’m finally in a position to build a collection, all these fly by night “watch enthusiasts” messed the whole game up.

It will revert to to mean, and anyone genuinely into watches should be content.

100%

[sudo_root]

DD’s are already selling for under MSRP + tax, if you want to know a good buy price simply get a sell quote on the watch from a few grey’s. Also look at watchcollecting.com to see true comparable + auction prices on MODA

[honuswagner13]

Full PM pieces are mainly back to msrp, except for a few exceptions

[mwc5k]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

How much further down do you see the DD headed? Retail + tax?


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My guess is 20% below retail within a year.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

How much further down do you see the DD headed? Retail + tax?


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My guess is AD discounts on DDs 2023


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[eijiboy]

now wg 42mm yachtmaster of now at retail. basically your not paying tax.

[sski]

any idea if the YG OF Daytona may approach retail or just below? (or is it unlikely?)

[rmagoo57]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

Full PM pieces are mainly back to msrp, except for a few exceptions

I accept your exceptional market analysis

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

Full PM pieces are mainly back to msrp, except for a few exceptions

Most standard gold dial President and even wg subs can be had under retail….

[BrunoMalik]

Patek 5711/1300A-001 unsold at 550k in private dealer chats. These watches traded as high as 1.3mil 6 months ago.

Gray market is dead, very little liquidity. Long time flippers know this so they are not buying from ADs anymore unless very blue chip pieces (16202/Nautilus/DaytonaC).

New flippers that don’t know the reality and think they can flip based on chrono24 prices are the only ones buying. But they will learn their lessons soon.

Most DD, YM OF, RG Rootbeer, WG sub, all AP offshores, some patek complications 5960/5205 can be had at or under retail and are starting to appear at dealers windows. Im even hearing 10% discounts offered on some DDs in small cities.

I think majority of references will go back at or under retail within the next 3-6 months except a few references mentioned above.


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[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Patek 5711/1300A-001 unsold at 550k in private dealer chats. These watches traded as high as 1.3mil 6 months ago.

Gray market is dead, very little liquidity. Long time flippers know this so they are not buying from ADs anymore unless very blue chip pieces (16202/Nautilus/DaytonaC).

New flippers that don’t know the reality and think they can flip based on chrono24 prices are the only ones buying. But they will learn their lessons soon.

Most DD, YM OF, RG Rootbeer, WG sub, all AP offshores, some patek complications 5960/5205 can be had at or under retail and are starting to appear at dealers windows. Im even hearing 10% discounts offered on some DDs in small cities.

I think majority of references will go back at or under retail within the next 3-6 months except a few references mentioned above.


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It can't come fast enough. Been on the market for a BLNR or BLRO but greys are trying to hold the prices steady at 17-18k. Sooner or later they'll break...

[Mifune]

There are MORE THAN 800 blros on 24... it's almost time.

[soicanbefree]

Anyone know what the MSRP is on the 128238 Rainbow? The one with the regular bracelet and regular bezel.

There is one for offer BNIB for 65K.

I think most DDs will be 10 to 20% off at some point in the near future but not sure these rainbow configurations seem to be on the rarer side.

Trying to decide on a realistic target price.

[agsstructures]

Brand new 126610lv’s for $15-$16k on MODA. Some seem to be moving but also a pretty large drop off from the $25k peak.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by messikens

Same thing with an AP 26420 on this forum that is sitting now at 36k. Used to be advertised for 45k several months ago and is now going down… can’t imagine a 20% was priced in a few months ago in any calculation…

Again it’s slightly used but seeing that a new one is 42k plus (in my state) 8% sales tax so you’re talking literally a 15-20% discount from MSRP…. Crazy times

Funny - scanning through the ads on this, same watch has now appeared as a new ad (no more bumpies) for $35k...

So now we're down $10k on an initial 45k ask, I.e. 25% at this point. Definitely don't think it'll be the last reduction either seeing how markets are going


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[jordanfsl]

I think the fluted bezel platinum DD’s will stay above MSRP for a while, once they actually show up. We are what, 9 months since the release and they still aren’t in the wild? Most dealers might only see a couple each year.

The rest of the DD’s seem to be quickly returning to MSRP and certainly have room to go lower.

[Vince_76]

Full set white dial Daytona - $28.75k and sitting

Brand new full set unsized 126610LV - $14.9k and sitting

The precipitous downturn in prices continues, with no support for a bottom.

[mwc5k]

Olive dial day date sitting at 42k with comment “I guess we all lost another 10k thanks to this one!”

[The Stifmeister]

Originally Posted by jordanfsl

I think the fluted bezel platinum DD’s will stay above MSRP for a while, once they actually show up. We are what, 9 months since the release and they still aren’t in the wild? Most dealers might only see a couple each year.

The rest of the DD’s seem to be quickly returning to MSRP and certainly have room to go lower.

My friend got one, the 36mm with diamond baguette dial and fluted bezel. That’s the only one our AD has seen thus far.

Originally Posted by mwc5k

Olive dial day date sitting at 42k with comment “I guess we all lost another 10k thanks to this one!”

I saw that one too. It’s a beat up example that is watch only.

[soicanbefree]

These people are delusional.

The 51K Olive BNIB has comments like:

This is cheap!

Great price!

While the 42K one sits unsold.

Who are you gonna believe?!! Me? Or your lying eyes!

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Most standard gold dial President and even wg subs can be had under retail….

Do we have any belief that the green Stella dial day date will follow suit?


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[Vince_76]

Mint Pepsi on jubilee, full set for $27.6k

The 10-year keep ripping and is at a 14 year high. There’s no bottom in sight for sure.

[The Stifmeister]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Do we have any belief that the green Stella dial day date will follow suit?


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That one will still retain a slight premium because it’s a 2022 new release. It went for $140k at auction when it was first posted in the summer. Now it’s in the $60k range.

I second all Day-Dates heading back to retail. The special dials may have a slight premium, but nothing like before.

[Trailboss516]

I'd love to get a call from my AD about a day-date. Hopefully this will help.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by The Stifmeister

That one will still retain a slight premium because it’s a 2022 new release. It went for $140k at auction when it was first posted in the summer. Now it’s in the $60k range.

I second all Day-Dates heading back to retail. The special dials may have a slight premium, but nothing like before.

you think it see's 45k? That sounds reasonable to me.

[The Stifmeister]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

you think it see's 45k? That sounds reasonable to me.

At the rate things are progressing anything is possible. If it's a reference you're considering, just stay patient and wait on the sidelines while this plays out.

I think it's got much lower to go imho.