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ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
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#121 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 75,940
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#122 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,777
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Quote:
I think you’re forgetting a key part of the analysis - that watches as “investments” was the flavor of the month so to speak during COVID. But things fall out of fashion, and it’s becoming ever more apparent that flippers are getting squeezed out. So the demand is not linear. Once we get to a point where folks realize they’re losing money out the door. And we’re getting closer to that every day.
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#123 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Twilight Zone
Posts: 540
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Absolutely!. I bought a Grand Seiko new from an AD for $7600 last year and sold it recently as I fell out of love with it. Sold it for almost a 50% loss and this thing had most of the warranty left and was in mint shape!. Left a sour taste in my mouth for the brand. It just cheapens the brand!. Only watch I buy new is Rolex as they hold really well. Discounting is disastrous for a brands prestige!. Look at Luis Vuitton. They refuse to discount anything even by 1% and if something doesn’t sell, it goes back to the factory and gets reused to make something else instead of selling it at a discount.
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#124 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2016
Real Name: Rich
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Watch: 116610LN
Posts: 431
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Judging by this sites For Sale forum, the prices are still ridiculously high.
P1sses me off a little when sellers on here want to price their watches at significantly over what the lower equivalent is on ebay or Chrono24. Especially given that most will be avoiding tax on the sale. |
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#125 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2016
Real Name: Rich
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Watch: 116610LN
Posts: 431
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Quote:
But really, one should expect, in a normal environment, to take a loss on selling a watch you bought. Rolex have a fine balancing act perform going forward. Their watches are still massively in demand, yet, they know that they could be selling double or triple the number of watches they do on a daily basis. An AD told me very recently that only two or three watches are leaving their store a day. The AD's, and im sure Rolex, would love to be selling far more watches, but what does this do to the desirability of the brand going forward? You have to think they want to sell more, at the very least to quash the gray market. |
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#126 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Twilight Zone
Posts: 540
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Quote:
Rolex historically has held their resale value pretty well and I’m sure Rolex will do everything they can to maintain that as it’s a very important part of the brands prestige. Usually, if one buys a non Rolex preowned, then you’ll probably break even as someone else took the initial hit. The GS was an impulse buy for me. I learned a very valuable lesson though. Only buy Rolex new…everything else pre owned. |
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#127 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2016
Real Name: Rich
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Watch: 116610LN
Posts: 431
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Quote:
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#128 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Twilight Zone
Posts: 540
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#129 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,980
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Quote:
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#130 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,988
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Quote:
Grand Seiko has absolutely plummeted in value and desirability over the last few months. I was under the weather the other day and and spent some time submitting some watches for sale on some well known preowned dealers sites to see what they are "buying". Grand Seiko is either a HARD PASS or TRADE ONLY. You cannot get a dealer to give you CASH for one. They will not take one in inventory for CASH. I think except for a few top models, the dealers are 100% out of the GS business. Rolex, while softening a bit on secondary market, this means that you may get paid less than retail for some models, but they more than likely will generate a cash offer. Other brands? Nah. Back to nobody wanting them again.. ![]() |
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#131 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Twilight Zone
Posts: 540
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Quote:
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#132 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Twilight Zone
Posts: 540
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#133 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 1,086
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Quote:
Ultra speculative equities (SPACs, anything Cathie Wood endorsed), crypto, some watches, some cars, some cards, some comics, some coins, some stamps, some <insert additional segment here>) - all more than “linearly” impacted. All those categories unwound. Sometimes carrying other assets down too far - savvy investors buy when others panic. The watch market - Patek and AP in particular but also Rolex to a lesser degree, dropped sharply as well. But that unwind - it already knocked off the speculative flippers from AD waitlists. They are mostly not participating other than holding inventory. I mentioned the inventory overhang (or think I did) but that is unlikely to crater the market further. Why? Because the true excess demand has been there for a while… and global wealth has gone up more than production over the past few years. So fundamentals are strong. I perversely wish the market would crater - but there are many others ready to pounce too. Remember, this is all dynamic and iterative, not static. If demand falls sharply overall, rates will follow. One won’t happen without the other and those trillions in short duration investments will flow right back in… |
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#134 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2023
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 49
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Some had bottomed imo, i.e. the Batman
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#135 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: USA
Posts: 2,018
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?
Eh who knows. I feel like it wasn’t THAT long ago my local ad had one sitting there and I thought about it and decided it was too much money. ![]() My friend bought a hulk that day and got a discount. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#136 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2013
Real Name: Ed
Location: Martha's Vineyard
Posts: 833
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Quote:
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Rolex Submariner 114060 - 2013 Rolex Explorer 1016 - 1967 Omega Seamaster 2220.80 2007 Victorinox Swiss Army 24221 - circa 1985 Sold but wish I didn't Rolex DateJust 1603 - 1972 |
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#137 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Shreveport
Posts: 1,261
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Lot’s of people smarter than me on this thread. However, I firmly believe that we have not seen the bottom yet.
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#138 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,777
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Quote:
“If demand falls sharply overall, rates will follow. One won’t happen without the other” again, not true. The fed does not adjust rate based on secondary watch market demand. If they did, that would be the exact one-to-one correlation that I was talking about which you are refuting. I can paint numerous scenarios, whereby demand decreases with fed funds rate remaining static, or at the very least elevated. The most salient example would be, and is, watches, falling out of “fashion” or “hype” or “investment” for certain cohorts. No one has a crystal ball, but I think many are too quick to assume that the correlation between economic health, and watch prices (adjusted for inflation) are strongly correlated.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#139 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2023
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 49
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#140 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: U.S.A.
Watch: SD43
Posts: 3,193
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Quote:
Was the economy not doing well between 2012-2016? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#141 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Freeattle, WA
Watch: SD43 and SS SkyD
Posts: 427
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You guys are confusing a fashion trend with an economic trend. Fashion, Hype and FOMO have driven the price of Rolex up, with the flippers flooding in to make an easy buck. Rolex does not produce investment securities, they produce fashion baubles.
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#142 |
2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: In the air
Posts: 689
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And at least a million a year….soon to maybe two million….
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#143 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,777
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Quote:
Yes, economy did well ‘12 - ‘16, but Rolex was selling under retail, AP you were losing money out the door, etc. Asset pricing appreciated over this time, but watch market was relatively static adjusting for inflation.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#144 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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Quote:
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#145 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
Real Name: The Mystro ;)
Location: Central Pa.
Posts: 15,175
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Quote:
![]() Are trusted sellers are moving watches this past month. I personally watched one seller sell 5 pre owned BLNR on Jubilee for top dollar ($17.5-18k+) in under a week. Every watch sold in under 12 hours of it being posted. SS GMT market is absolutely ticking up. That $17k-$21k is where all SS GMT’s are moving. BLRO above the $21K in that $23K range are not and are sitting. This is just a momentary snap shot of a slow time of year post Christmas in where we are.
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#146 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,777
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Sold on MODA.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#147 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Europe/Asia
Watch: AP/Rolex
Posts: 1,319
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Ah those were the good old days. Not that long ago mind you... And I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to that although I do think will take a number of years.
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#148 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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Quote:
I'm sure they make a pretty healthy margin on their $30K precious SS pieces too. They'll have to keep the supply tight so people spend money on their high margin PM pieces. |
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#149 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: mississippi river
Posts: 3,035
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The watch market will stop going lower when the Chinese economic markets start to recover.
The 2 biggest influences on the market where China and bitcoin. Bitcoin isn't doing bad, so that leaves China. |
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#150 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2019
Real Name: Jan
Location: Earth
Posts: 381
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I disagree, it's the monetary growth that drove the frenzy. Cash is scarce and the layoffs going around the world, either the production will drop to keep the prices stable, or the prices will continue to go down to increase the demand.
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