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21 March 2020, 09:57 PM | #121 |
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21 March 2020, 10:13 PM | #122 | |
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I am agree with you 100% and also I want to complete your thread. The Covid-19 crisis will continue till July-August minimum. Worst scenario is the end of this year. This situation will affect harder more then ever in recent history the economy. Also in my opinion now we will see who love the watche and and how many are on the waiting list just to earn money. |
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21 March 2020, 10:17 PM | #123 |
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Covid 19 pales in comparison to H1N1 but yet we have shut down the world for it.
Here's the thing NO ONE likes losing money, and in this environment 99% of people are losing money. This will end, sooner then most are predicting. Dow at 10K, millions of deaths. My god, just go back to your bunker.
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21 March 2020, 10:18 PM | #124 | |
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21 March 2020, 10:41 PM | #125 | |
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21 March 2020, 11:06 PM | #126 |
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Patek called after 2 y, so soon shop open I will go... for sake of uncertainty I will take my watch.
To whom think Rolex and Patek will put in the display the hot model....continue to dream my dear...the whole "face" of the brand is linked to the availability of that models so do you think they will give up like that? Hulk,Batman, Daytona, Nautilus, Aquanaut for everyone? I don't think so. I rather think now is bit special moment where for example common people like me (w/o huge $$$ purchase history) get a call from Patek..is a sign of market decline? maybe. Do I care? No so so let's take the chance....why not... Counterwise to buy now at 2,3 times retail then I would think twice... However as long as someone is earning money from this story (and someone of course is earning for masks, vaccine research, medical equipment, logistic etc etc) don't be afraid that watch are sold...and fast.... Someone smarter than me for sure once said: "buy when there is blood on the street even if blood is your own" cit.Baron Rothschild |
21 March 2020, 11:09 PM | #127 | |
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And if that’s not enough for you. It’s 10-20 times more deadly. Only thing I agree on is that I think we’ll get thru this sooner rather than later. Good opportunity to sever ties with China for good. Trade and economy wise
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22 March 2020, 12:23 AM | #128 |
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22 March 2020, 12:36 AM | #129 |
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I read that as an increase in supply - I didn't think they were open that much historically...
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22 March 2020, 12:50 AM | #130 | |
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Stop with the exclusivity thing like Rolex is going to drum down production and only sell $20k+ timepieces, that’s not their ballgame. |
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22 March 2020, 12:52 AM | #131 | |
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24 March 2020, 05:00 AM | #132 |
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Sometimes I go on TRF to get depressed once in a while. The weather's been great here, I feel like I need to balance that with a whole lot of man-child talk
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24 March 2020, 05:56 AM | #133 |
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Expect even lower supply!
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24 March 2020, 09:14 AM | #134 | |
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Medtronic is the biggest medical equipment company in the world. It's stock value is tanking. 3m is the biggest protective mask producer in the world. It's stock value is tanking. I don't even want to mention the stock values of logistics companies. So, if you were joking, haha well done. If not, well eh, yeah, you should do more research. |
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24 March 2020, 09:22 AM | #135 | |
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24 March 2020, 09:42 AM | #136 | |
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I think grey dealers/flippers will do it tough... but I have been advocating very little change at Rolex ADs: 1) They're not open, so they won't be receiving shipments (no stock increase) 2) The factory is closed, so Rolex won't be producing watches (no one to ship to) This means things won't change at the AD level in terms of stock - UNLESS - as you rightly point out, greys/flippers can no longer flog their wares for huge mark ups. I just have no way of gauging how many on the wait-list are grey/flippers VS people like me? Maybe their are/were more individuals, not necessarily grey/flippers who are purchasing watches just to move on? |
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24 March 2020, 12:17 PM | #137 | |
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The days of selecting clients, allocating entry level SS watches, bundle deals, and watches over MSRP are gone for a while. I would not touch a watch over MSRP for the next years. People believe that Rolex shutting down production will limit supply. They still cover their costs, and they have no revenue. Are they going to produce only Daytonas after - no, but they will meet demands on every other model in e heart beat. Also, I am new to this, but wasn't it normal to see Aquanauts, 5711, GMTS on the window 4-5 years ago? Weren't rare and hot, the Perpetual Calendars and the Presidentials, some of the older collectors may shine a light here. |
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24 March 2020, 12:50 PM | #138 | |
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In 2014 I could get this (not an opinion through a third party, these are factual numbers I could have bought): Sub/GMT- Easy 15% discount, 20% if you had purchased a lot before 5711- Considered a dated 70s design by many, easy 20% discount with no prior purchase history. AP Royal Oak- Another Genta design, 30% discount on grey, I believe I was offered 20% at an AD if I remember correctly. Aquanaut- this is the real surprise if you’re only seeing the market now. Vast majority of people thought it was just an ugly step child to the Nautilus, hated the grenade style dial, these were constantly in the case sitting. Never inquired firsthand from an AD, but you could buy it brand new from Grey all day for 30% under MSRP. I’m saying those numbers as an individual who is a fan of all the above designs and always has been, in no way biased against them. Newer guys really don’t comprehend just how much the market has changed, these watches weren’t just selling at MSRP and are now inflated, they were selling at a STEEP discount before. The difference is mind boggling. |
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24 March 2020, 12:53 PM | #139 | |
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24 March 2020, 02:03 PM | #140 | |
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The intrinsic value of Stainless Steel Rolex/AP/Patek is actually negligible at best. When crisis happens, people would wake up. |
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24 March 2020, 02:21 PM | #141 |
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Honestly, who the hell knows what could happen with all the ridiculous fear mongering.
Social media turned the Hulk from literally an unwanted watch no one wanted into selling for a 70% premium in a year. Social media can also turn a relatively benign sickness into the black plague, too. What is most concerning is how real money changes (either increasing or decreasing in value) based on this speculative BS where 98% of the mongering is false or uninformed. This is why I am convinced that regardless of how benign COVID ends up being (like if we find a cure tomorrow), our government will drag out the fear mongering for as long as they can because they don't want citizens realizing they lost half their money over speculation that, in reality, turned out to be nothing. I'm not saying it is nothing......but if we find out it's not as bad as everyone is thinking, the government isn't going to make us privy to that reality. By the way, a big FU to our politicians today for turning down this stimulus package based basically on party lines. Make no mistake, there is not one person in Congress who isn't rich.....they do not care about you or anyone else. They care about their stupid political party affiliations regardless of whether kids are being shot dead in schools or this. That's why I laugh at these shelter in place rules.....I'll be damned if the government ever tells me when I can run my business regardless of their stupid rules. |
24 March 2020, 02:30 PM | #142 | |
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24 March 2020, 02:33 PM | #143 | |
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Thanks for your logical, well thought out, factually based decision making process. I’m happy you can laugh at things which are *proven* to prevent misfortune and death. The funniest excerpt is how you continue to say ‘was nothing’ while there’s simultaneously approaching half a million people being infected (and growing daily). That there is nothing!!!! |
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24 March 2020, 02:41 PM | #144 | |
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Yeah, that will remove any fortune most people have. I don't work in a factory with a ton of people or with old people....I am not endangering anyone. Again, this is job specific.....some people do work with old people and or around lots of people and they should indeed take heed. I do not....thus I am going to do what I need to do in order to put food on the table. |
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24 March 2020, 02:47 PM | #145 | |
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You’re still thinking with tunnel vision. Ok so one of your employees get sick and the only person at YOUR workplace who gets infected are non-immunocompromised, healthy individuals. Now what about the mother or grandparent they visit later that day? What about their now pregnant wife they go home to every night? Think bigger picture, widen your perspective. |
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24 March 2020, 02:53 PM | #146 | |
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In your particular example, I would then agree. However, most of these shelter in place orders are ass-backwards. Work with 150 people in an assembly line? You are essential, you need to come to work. Work with no one or two healthy adults on their own in a particular setting? You are non-essential, you are not allowed to work. It gets so old..... You can see how this really doesn't solve anything. My anger is towards government....which is basically corrupt or fraudulent in every country. We are having this issue because China lied and because our supposed amazing hi-tech country wasn't even close to being prepared. It's pathetic. Hey, I pay my taxes and am patriotic like anyone else.....but government is continuously a bunch of asshats regardless of who is President, what party is majority, etc. They could care less about normal people. |
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24 March 2020, 02:56 PM | #147 | |
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Apologies if I misinterpreted that. |
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24 March 2020, 02:57 PM | #148 | |
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24 March 2020, 03:10 PM | #149 | |
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I bet we won't cross a million domestic death from this virus like some "experts" are claiming but we sure in hell will have millions who are unemployed, millions who suffer from mental issues because of this virus and the economic damage we'll be cleaning up fro the next few years. |
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24 March 2020, 03:16 PM | #150 | |
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