ROLEX HOT MODELS RIGHT NOW??? Future collectibles

[bazin]

*****
Experience of a 76 year old guy in respect with "future collectibles"......

*) In 1978 I bought a 1675 GMT Master....that time nobody was eager to buy this "very / to much colorful watch".....it gave me 41 years of daily pleasure ....now it has a 44 fold original value.....and has a unique patina.
*) In 2012 I purchased a 2007 16610LV / Kermit....that time nobody was particularly interested; the green inlay was widely typed "strange / uncommon".....it gave me a lot of fun....I gave it recently to my son....he now is very happy with it....now it has a 3 fold original value (in 7 years).
*) I believed in the potential interest of the Kermit and therefore in 2013 purchased another one, a 2007 NOS / in the seals 16610LV.....I keep it in the seals....now it has a 3 fold original value (in 6 years).
*) I think that the 16680 YM II is an extraordinary and exclusive Rolex because of its exclusive style elements within the existing Rolex program and the very unique caliber.
The 16680 YM II is widely unloved and ignored by the existing "common" Rolex owners who are focused on Daytona's, BLR'S, Deepsea's etc.
I have the feeling (but can be wrong) that the 16680 YM II in the future once will become a strong sought after model due to the unique appearance and the low numbers available on the market.
Once imo it will be an exclusive item between the Rolex models that in the meantime generally are more colorful and that specific accents / typical model accents will be widely accepted.
Since a couple of weeks I own a 2014 YM II with the typical / in future most favourable (imo) performance "Blue Hands" .....I have a normal wrist for a 76 year old guy; it wears very comfortable....it is a beauty in all aspects and becomes more attractive when time goes by....I like to take an extra look to it many times a day....

[vivicorsi]

Good valid point on the YM II

[strafer_kid]

bMaybe first of the SD43s and GMT16710s? Latter seem to be really taking off!

[chloebear]

Originally Posted by AF_Rob

I would add the Milgauss white dial. Usually, the ugly ducklings become hot watches way down the road.

Exactly this.

Wasn't around long and sold in very small numbers. Just like the original Milgauss.

[DoctorA]

From the current lineup I predict:
The 126710 BLRO MK I. Simply because of the very short production!
The SD43 MK I again only a year or so production
SD4k
DJ II
James Cameron MKI

All the above had short production in the above order! Which means less of them out there. So simple math makes them the less available which equals more collectibility!!

[acr]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

From the current lineup I predict:
The 126710 BLRO MK I. Simply because of the very short production!
The SD43 MK I again only a year or so production
SD4k
DJ II
James Cameron MKI

All the above had short production in the above order! Which means less of them out there. So simple math makes them the less available which equals more collectibility!!

Agreed on all except for the DJ2.

[LooseCann0n]

Originally Posted by vivicorsi

Just checked the prices for an unworn 2018 ,116600, box and papers in Europe....I bought one last year for 10500
On chrono24 there are only a few left... and they start at 13.000 Euros
Not a bad one year increase.
This watch was unloved at the time. Stayed at Ads , going for a discount , short production run... for me this is the safest bets right now.... besides the unobtainable Daytona

How about first or last ones ie 2014 / 2017...? Or perhaps no difference as condition will define rarity and hence collectibility?

[Member Declaration of Interest - have a 2014 SD4k]


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[mastersub]

The quicker something becomes collectible, the less collectible it becomes in the future. And by less collectible I mean the supply remains high, keeping it easy to acquire. 5, 10, 15 years from now, there will still be gobs and gobs of new in box, unworn BLNRs and Hulks available for purchase.

[woof]

Great list.... I would add the GMT black on black. It just got discontinued.

[kog]

Only one in the list that ticks all the boxes. The Sea dweller 116600

Quality premium diver watch
unloved
Short production run
No cyclops
Matte dial
heritage
Complicated movement
Helium escape valve which is unique to the Rolex Sea Dweller and Doxa watches. If you look at other manufactures solution to this problem of helium they are not so elegant.

Because the Sea Dweller 116600 had a short production run and it went unnoticed by the masses, that makes the Sea Dweller 116600 a rare modern collectable diver watch. Since 2017 the cost of this watch has doubled.

[uncufunc]

Originally Posted by woof

Great list.... I would add the GMT black on black. It just got discontinued.

agreed....not that i am biased of course

[sechsgang]

Originally Posted by kog

Only one in the list that ticks all the boxes. The Sea dweller 116600

Quality premium diver watch
unloved
Short production run
No cyclops
Matte dial
heritage
Complicated movement
Helium escape valve which is unique to the Rolex Sea Dweller and Doxa watches. If you look at other manufactures solution to this problem of helium they are not so elegant.

Because the Sea Dweller 116600 had a short production run and it went unnoticed by the masses, that makes the Sea Dweller 116600 a rare modern collectable diver watch. Since 2017 the cost of this watch has doubled.

Agreed here.

[scooba]

Originally Posted by mwasheikh

I Wanted to gather a list and get everyone's opinion on which rolexes are hot and which will probably becomes collectors items in the not to distant future:

-Rolex SD 4000 (discontinued)
-Rolex GMT Batman
-Rolex Hulk
-Daytona Ceramic
-Rolex SD 50th anniversary
-Rolex DSSD James Cameron edition.....
-Rolex Sub non ceramic 50th anniversary
-Rolex Non ceramic Daytona

Also does anyone see these new models coming down to reality or will there always be a premium for them?

I have severn off the eight above ,I no longer have. Non ceramic Daytona

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by directioneng

[Nepats81]

I expect CHNR as well will be super collectible.


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[Fabrice M]

I think the only one on your list that will become a collectible is the SD 4K. The Mark 1 sub 50th with the flat 4 is already a collector item. The rest isn’t . The least likely in my opinion is the BLNR, there are plenty...

[Jackumi]

Originally Posted by Rocket_Man

Hard to say if any of those will be future collectibles. Most of the high value vintage Rolex's you see today came from a time when Rolex was not much of a sought after brand and the number of watches produced was lower than today. So while some watches are hot now, their popularity will dwindle when the next hot watch is released and buyers attention turns to these. In the mean time they will have made 10s of thousands of BLNRs and each was so expensive that no one will have shoved them in the back of a drawer for 30 years and wake up with a $100K watch in the kitchen junk drawer.

Totally agree!

[Swaye]

Thought about this a bit. To me to be a very collectible watch one day, the watch needs to be somewhat limited or special in some tangible way. I think Daytonas are the one exception to this as they just seem to always go up no matter what. But, Hulks, BLNRs, BLROs, 16710s, and DSSDs are all super cool watches, but there is nothing rare enough about them to make them a highly sought after watch one day. There are hundreds of thousands of some of these watches out there.

The only potentially really collectible watches to me of the last 20 years are (and this is tinged with a huge "possible" right now because it is hard to guess these things in the era) are the:

Kermit Flat 4
16710 3186 (all versions)
SD4K
SD43 MKI

And even the SD4K and SD43 I wonder about because in the past SDs were the red headed step child to the Sub - I think that is changing now, but still too early to tell.

[Dsmith1974]

The way I see it the main future collectables are going to be:

16610LV
116710BLNR
16710
Milgauss BZ
DJ41 silver dial on jubilee.

[fsprow]

I think none will prove to be great "investments".

- Too many watches are being produced and many are being kept in pristine condition. Doesn't generally produce a collectible.

- The market for mechanical watches is limited with many (not all) young people opting for other options (iWatch etc).

- It's very hard to guess what collectors will want in the future based on what is hot today (eg blue dials, green bezels...). If any are in high demand and very valuable it will likely turn out to be a currently unloved watch with low production volumes.

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by fsprow

I think none will prove to be great "investments".

- Too many watches are being produced and many are being kept in pristine condition. Doesn't generally produce a collectible.

- The market for mechanical watches is limited with many (not all) young people opting for other options (iWatch etc).

- It's very hard to guess what collectors will want in the future based on what is hot today (eg blue dials, green bezels...). If any are in high demand and very valuable it will likely turn out to be a currently unloved watch with low production volumes.

I think the limited run references will appreciate pretty well, but probably not as well as the stock market. You are correct, these aren't investments. That doesn't mean you won;t get a good return out of some of them....many folks will, just hard to guess which ones it will be.

Your first point is really key though. So many people have hoarded these watches in NOS condition and stuck them in safes that I think it really limits any major future upside. They will appreciate sure, but not at the clip so many "investors" are hoping for. Just too many of them not being worn. Which is completely stupid - but that is my opinion. People can shove 200K worth of watches in a safe if they want. It's their money. I'll wear mine and my kids can worry about what they are worth when I am dead.

[fsprow]

. I'll wear mine and my kids can worry about what they are worth when I am dead.

[yalex]

Any modern Rolex may not be a good investment; however, just like gold, Rolex can be a good store of value, especially for certain professional models. There aren’t many things that we buy that can store value like a Rolex.

[Miexpeman]

Blue SS Sky-Dweller?

[vivicorsi]

Originally Posted by Miexpeman

Blue SS Sky-Dweller?

Yes pretty safe bet.
First Rolex doesn’t exchange a black or white dial for a blue one! However they do exchange a white for a black and vice versa. That’s just to say.
Second it is rarer than a daytona white dial.
Third it is the most complicated Rolex and the first in steel.
If you compare the prices of similar brands ,their annual calendars are more expensive. An anual calendar with gmt function for just 2.000 more than a Chrono...,

[Rodayyy]

Originally Posted by aquatimerfla

For starters the Rolex Daytona Ceramic or non ceramic are not really 'collectible'. The Daytona is has and always will be around. Will they always hold there value and perhaps a premium? guaranteed. If history proves correct the Daytona C will be much easier to get over the next 2 years as opposed to the past 2 years. While I agree the Daytona can be a mainstay in anyones collection there is nothing 'unique' about them.

1) Rolex Submariner 16610LV -This one is obvious as water is wet

2) Rolex SD4000. Seems to check all the boxes of a collectible. Approx 30 month run. Unique case shared by no other Rolex. Modern update of the 'classic' Seadweller. As time gos on this will only go up in value as much as if not more than the 16610LV listed above.

3) Rolex Deepsea JC. This one of a kind dial of speaks for itself. Unique. Rolexes first foray into 'celebrating' an event. I fully expect this model to be discontinued anytime without warning in the next 2 years which will give it a shorter run and production than the 16610LV.

4) Rolex 116610LV 'Hulk'. If only because its Rolexes its first ALL green submariner. The big question is does it get discontinued and replaced with identical looking watch but with the new 3235 movement?. Regardless will always be a strong player in anyones collection from a 'value' standpoint.

5) Rolex BLNR. I dont see this model being a collectible. period. I cant see it going anywhere anytime soon.

6) Rolex SD43. IF 'red' text gets eliminated after one year than this model will shoot to the top of the list. I dont see that happening however and fully expect this model to be sold for the next 8 years approx as is. Although it celebrates 50 years of the Seadweller it is actually a brand new model with a 'cyclops'!. This is seadweller blasphemy. If it didnt say seadweller on the dial than I would think the other name could be Submariner XL. Not that impressed. If red text stays I dont see collectors being that impressed either.

Boy this didn’t age too well....

[GBD]

At the risk of being overly-obvious: hot models today are far *less* likely to be collectible in the future. Today's hot models might be hard to find at retail, but none are hard to find in an absolute sense.

[Seibei]

The last thing that will be collectible is a new hot mass produced watch. You can do so much better than that.

[vivicorsi]

It always depends on relative scarcity. Just look at this forum for example. Most of the time
on the Rolex forum there are 500-800 people online. Now compare that to the Patek or Audemars forum.... yes Rolex is a mass product , but even a bigger mass wants them...
Not convinced ?....ok go back ten years and read a thread about the Kermit than....“it will never be collectible etc etc...“

[Thanos]

SS Rolex?

Money in the bank.

Moving forward Rolex SS models will never lose value.......