Do we like Rolex scarcity?

[Calatrava r]

There is really no Rolex supply anywhere in the world from what we read here. I thought it was a demand issue, wanted to believe that. Now I am confidant this is a deliberate move by the manufacturer to limit production of their line similar to what they have been doing with the Daytona. Nobody I know is receiving any where near the deliveries of a few years back. I know many posters state their ADs say the shipments are the same, watches are just spoken for before they hit the case. How can all the DJs and PMs all be sold out too. Cases are empty as recent photos here show.

[jzhan026]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I never said that. All I'm saying is the community and the hobby is crap now because of people flipping and ONLY being round here for that reason only.

They don't contribute anything substantial to the forum or to the knowledge, they just continue to create threads on how much their Hulk or BLRO will be worth in another 12 months time. Then create another thread saying the gray dealer just offered them lower than MSRP and how they didnt make any money....lol

Stuff like that which is everywhere. Just search the last 1 month and see how many threads are along these lines. I seriously cant wait for this bubble to burst. I really hope it does soon actually and we get back to the REAL reason why we are here and thats the hobby of watches, their movements and the intricate details of their workings and discussing the technical marvels behind them.

I seriously dont care how much my LV or BLNR or whatever is worth and I hope everyone in this game purely for flipping gets left holding the bag when things start going south.

Can't agree more. Although the current situation is certainly attracting more attention from all age groups, I suspect in a few years, we will be left with a much smaller collector community after the fad ends. The reason is that a lot of the new would be long term hobbyists will be burnt out by the end of this price run and will lose all interest in this hobby. This is most evident by the change of meanings of congratulations under incoming threads from "congratulation on achieving a personal goal and rewarding yourself" to "congratulation on winning the dealer game". As unfortunate as it is to say, this hobby is no longer fun for me and probably quite a few others who don't care about watch price appreciation or depreciation after purchase; however, this does not mean I'm willing to pay inflated prices because I still want to pay a fair price for a watch and frankly, none of the SS sports models are worth the inflated prices.

[niner niner seven]

Yes we love it and so does Rolex

[train-time]

We love it

[pepsiretail]

We love threads about it!

[wiscotrout]

My day job is in supply chain, and I work in the retail sector focusing on getting the right product in the right place at the right time, and I can say with no hesitation, that Rolex is lousy at Demand Planning. Literally, if a major brand or retailer missed this badly on a quarterly basis, this consistently, the exec team would be looking for other jobs, even privately held ones. How they seem to get away with it is mind boggling.

I have worked for elite brands and delivered into demanding retailers and it astounds me that they are able to get away with this by their board. People like to dismiss that they are private and are a charity/foundation - but to me - while you do need to protect the long term value of the brand to ensure a sustainable future, the dollars they are leaving on the table is astounding.

If they doubled production of stainless sports watches in lieu of models that don't sell (pick a datejust, the Roselor Yachty, two-tone yellow gold that are abundant in cases and at greys for well below retail), waiting lists would still be in effect and greys would still be out there at almost the same prices and yet they could double sales and profit since their network is essentially a fixed cost. Same for tripling production of steel, though that may be a stretch. I see the same models sitting in dozens of retailers both in the US and globally and lots of empty cases - swtich some to stainless and at least make a dent in the problem.

[GMT2BATMAN]

I would like them to become scarce after I get a Pepsi, hulk, Daytona and a blue SS sky dweller

[wiscotrout]

Regarding the flippers in it for only a buck, I agree to a point, but this hobby, even before the scarcity, was about flipping getting, closer to the grail. I mean the F/S threads on here were busy and the go to place to pick up an honest Rolex well before "flippers" came in.

And why does it matter why people are flipping? They are flipping, there was no altruistic vibe here before where people wanted to take a loss for the love of the hobby...

[Jackumi]

Originally Posted by wiscotrout

My day job is in supply chain, and I work in the retail sector focusing on getting the right product in the right place at the right time, and I can say with no hesitation, that Rolex is lousy at Demand Planning. Literally, if a major brand or retailer missed this badly on a quarterly basis, this consistently, the exec team would be looking for other jobs, even privately held ones. How they seem to get away with it is mind boggling.

I have worked for elite brands and delivered into demanding retailers and it astounds me that they are able to get away with this by their board. People like to dismiss that they are private and are a charity/foundation - but to me - while you do need to protect the long term value of the brand to ensure a sustainable future, the dollars they are leaving on the table is astounding.

If they doubled production of stainless sports watches in lieu of models that don't sell (pick a datejust, the Roselor Yachty, two-tone yellow gold that are abundant in cases and at greys for well below retail), waiting lists would still be in effect and greys would still be out there at almost the same prices and yet they could double sales and profit since their network is essentially a fixed cost. Same for tripling production of steel, though that may be a stretch. I see the same models sitting in dozens of retailers both in the US and globally and lots of empty cases - swtich some to stainless and at least make a dent in the problem.

Rolex does not have a problem to solve, it is doing very nicely just as it is. Your world is focused on businesses that are constantly striving for increased profits and expansion for their survival. Rolex as a business does not need to do any of those things.

[subboi]

Originally Posted by Alex71168

Yes they don’t seem to hold their value ��

Which model do u have ? OP ?

[Gnomon]

Originally Posted by HappyFish

What is Panerai?! ;-)

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Jackumi

Rolex does not have a problem to solve, it is doing very nicely just as it is. Your world is focused on businesses that are constantly striving for increased profits and expansion for their survival. Rolex as a business does not need to do any of those things.

Indeed, too many people expect the same economic behaviour from Rolex as they would from a ‘norma’ business. Rolex simply does not have the same objectives as a normal business and therefore does not behave like one.

It really isn’t hard to understand.

The real problem is that ADs on the other hand, are profit maximising entities, which explains a lot of the problems that wannabe owners face.


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[teck21]

Originally Posted by wiscotrout

the dollars they are leaving on the table is astounding. .. swtich some to stainless and at least make a dent in the problem.

Unlike Swatch Group or LVMH, Rolex has absolutely no qualms leaving dollars on the table.

Therefore there is no problem.

Any problem they have is the loss of customer goodwill from being unable to obtain their desired models.

My own guess is that any customer goodwill lost in this regard is more than compensated for by the increased stature of Rolex ownership caused by its .... wait for it.... scarcity.

Every potential customer driven way in anger is replaced by 3 others who can’t wait to join the club.

Rolex would be pretty pleased with the situation I imagine.


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[Oliver Mendl]

Originally Posted by teck21

Unlike Swatch Group or LVMH, Rolex has absolutely no qualms leaving dollars on the table.

Therefore there is no problem.

Any problem they have is the loss of customer goodwill from being unable to obtain their desired models.

My own guess is that any customer goodwill lost in this regard is more than compensated for by the increased stature of Rolex ownership caused by its .... wait for it.... scarcity.

Every potential customer driven way in anger is replaced by 3 others who can’t wait to join the club.

Rolex would be pretty pleased with the situation I imagine.


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Rolex is a special animal, and I think everyone who educates themselves on the brand knows that.

Right now Rolex has zero problems. And with the work of the foundation, keeping quiet overall and in general/ keeping the Rolex brand and the foundation out of tabloid headlines, not commenting on politics - they're flying deep below the radar.

Except for almost anyone knowing/ recognizing the brand and it's "iconic" watches. Personally I think that is remarkable.

But in the end, the math only adds up if desirability, perception of the brand and its models continue to grow or the very least stay at current levels.

Look at De Beers who made a 180 degree u-turn on lab grown diamonds, from a categorial no to "hell yes" within only one year.

Right now this is probably solely about market shares and having a horse in the race.

But what about the future?

When I look into the future I see generations coming that will not care about expensive/luxury materialistic objects. Look at those bunny hopping kids following Greta Thunberg, for example - are they future Rolex customers, will they care about a mechanical watch, costing thousands of dollars? And if, what kind of questions are they going to ask at the AD? Probably one of them: If the diamonds in/on their new Rolex are 100% conflict free and responsibly sourced - which then (sooner or later) leads to the question of lab grown diamonds for Rolex.

And my guess is if, they will also identify significantly more with the foundations work than with Rolex sports sponsorships - after looking at the brand in depth.

But I wholeheartedly doubt that it will be seen as a "must have" or something that is worth waiting for, for years - or paying significantly over MSRP just to have it. And the same goes for playing games -> "establishing relationships".

I don't think that what is coming is comparable to the "quartz crisis" either, which is often cited in the context of changing markets and used to underline/ make a strong point about Rolex "status" and coming out a winner.

--

On a funny note. I think it's even possible that at some point Jean-Claude Biver will have to step up and rescue the Rolex brand.

--

If I was running the show at Rolex, I would be deeply concerned about every single customer lost over the current situation - because Rolex largely (speaking of the average customer) lives off the brands perception and it's history - and only that.

Once that average customer looses faith in the brand (or the brands desirability) a world of truly great and wonderful watches opens up to them, which they can get readily available, no frills attached. At the same time the number of average customers will steadily decrease.

It's also dangerous for the AD's, people remember how they have been treated - so why not buy that JLC directly from JLC, online. ;)


Kind regards,
Oliver

[maxymax]

Originally Posted by Oliver Mendl

..............

When I look into the future I see generations coming that will not care about expensive/luxury materialistic objects. Look at those bunny hopping kids following Greta Thunberg, for example - are they future Rolex customers, will they care about a mechanical watch, costing thousands of dollars? And if, what kind of questions are they going to ask at the AD? Probably one of them: If the diamonds in/on their new Rolex are 100% conflict free and responsibly sourced - which then (sooner or later) leads to the question of lab grown diamonds for Rolex.

Oliver

This

[filsgreen]

I don't understand the possible animosity towards AD's. Rolex supplies them with a finite amount of desirable products and they sell them as they see fit.

The AD has a business to run, it makes sense to me, that they look after their valued customers. I certainly wouldn't take umbrage with them, if I couldn't buy a desirable model. It's business, not personal. As in the immortal words of Mr Jagger "you can't always get what you want."

[Oliver Mendl]

Originally Posted by filsgreen

I don't understand the possible animosity towards AD's. Rolex supplies them with a finite amount of desirable products and they sell them as they see fit.

The AD has a business to run, it makes sense to me, that they look after their valued customers. I certainly wouldn't take umbridge with them, if I couldn't buy a desirable model. It's business, not personal. As in the immortal words of Mr Jagger "you can't always get what you want."

I think most of that (possible) animosity is not based on a no (i.e. your Mick Jagger quote), but, depending on who you ask, on either: If I would spend XY, AD will produce X from the back or: If I spend XY, AD will make a pudent face because he has nothing in the back to produce.

That's why I'm using the term "playing games".

It all depends on what you want to believe/ what your experience is. ;)

Kind regards,
Oliver

[Toivonen]

Originally Posted by peterskinner

Yes, would members prefer a situation where all .....all.....models were freely available from the local AD? Or is scarcity, and the resulting high residuals, a thing to be desired and welcomed?

Desired and welcomed? How can be like this for real watch enthusiasts?

[Jackumi]

I liken Rolex to the British Morgan car company. This company makes quirky 30's styled sports cars mainly hand made from metal and wood. 25yrs ago a business guru and entrepreneur of great standing analyzed the Mogan car company. He advised the company that if it did not modernize its operation and update its car designs future generations will not buy their outdated looking cars, If they did not he predicted the company will be out of business in 5yrs. Well they ignored his advice and carried on building the cars in the same way with the same materials just updating the engines electrics and mechanicals etc. Now 25yrs later they are thriving with waiting lists up to 10yrs for some models.

[filsgreen]

You are right, Oliver, in that all life is a game. I suppose the self entitlement ethos, that wealth imbues in some people, makes it hard for them to accept Mr Jagger's statement. .

[Mr.Rolex1]

as a a seller, not a buyer

[Justinmg]

Never realized there were so few real WIS left on this forum.

[Luap1976]

Just watched Marc goldbergs latest vid on youtube.saying Rolex are building another movement factory and will flood the market in 2 years with steel sport as they are sick of the Grey's selling at crazy prices.does anyone belive this ?I hope he is right he claims to have a very credible source but it's probably click bait for views and subs on the tube

[Fchernyak]

Originally Posted by Luap1976

Just watched Marc goldbergs latest vid on youtube.saying Rolex are building another movement factory and will flood the market in 2 years with steel sport as they are sick of the Grey's selling at crazy prices.does anyone belive this ?I hope he is right he claims to have a very credible source but it's probably click bait for views and subs on the tube

Just watched the same exact video. I enjoy his content and find him pretty credible. Hopefully he’s right. But at the end of the day nobody really knows.


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[mikkolopez]

Not a popular suggestion but in our local forum.

The forum admins have started to crack down on sales corners/marketplace by depriving approvals to listings which are pricing 20% or higher than MSRP and limiting number of listing to 3 watches only.
Step in the right direction to limit speculators and greys whose only contribution to a watch forum is a For Sale listing or a Shill when posting SS pieces selling at premium.

If there is no forum for these grey to peddle their wares then the time will come when it does not make sense for them to hoard and ADs to sell backdoor to these greys.


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[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

There is really no Rolex supply anywhere in the world from what we read here. I thought it was a demand issue, wanted to believe that. Now I am confidant this is a deliberate move by the manufacturer to limit production of their line similar to what they have been doing with the Daytona. Nobody I know is receiving any where near the deliveries of a few years back. I know many posters state their ADs say the shipments are the same, watches are just spoken for before they hit the case. How can all the DJs and PMs all be sold out too. Cases are empty as recent photos here show.

I've said it from the beginning. If all these people have seen the books of an AD they would change their word-of-mouth opinion to what I've tried to preach across this board. Supply has been cut and I don't know why an AD would tell people that "demand has gone up (sure it has!) but supplied has stayed the same". It's silly. Seems like an "excuse" for them to justify that they have no watches. Instead of "bad mouthing" Rolex and saying "they dont send us crap anymore", they tell the walk-in guy that "demand has gone up".
An AD that I havent really dealt with much, told me that exact story. If I wasn't clued up with the current situation for ADs, I would have eaten the words out of his palm. He also said soon there won't be an availability for putting "XXXX" on the back of the card... This was December 2018. Now we're in June 2019 and nothing has changed Some ADs just love to talk a lot of gas.

Originally Posted by mikkolopez

Not a popular suggestion but in our local forum.

The forum admins have started to crack down on sales corners/marketplace by depriving approvals to listings which are pricing 20% or higher than MSRP and limiting number of listing to 3 watches only.
Step in the right direction to limit speculators and greys whose only contribution to a watch forum is a For Sale listing or a Shill when posting SS pieces selling at premium.

If there is no forum for these grey to peddle their wares then the time will come when it does not make sense for them to hoard and ADs to sell backdoor to these greys.


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Yeh that won't really help. Gone to watchfairs before? What next...Firebomb grey's shops? Shut down Facebook? Ebay? etc.
Watch trading has been going on for as long as watches has existed. It's just been fired up by platforms such as Chrono24 (& others).

[RyanJ]

No.. Leave the free market alone. These are luxury watches not clean water.

If people want to flip a watch for 100% profit two minutes after buying it... Have at it.

If ADs want to shovel to grays... Have at it.

If grays want to sell at massive prices... Have at it.

There is obviously a lot of people paying these prices or it wouldn't be like this.

Capitalism at its finest...

[oldman2005]

That I have been saying all along that this is a Rolex strategy that limits the SS sport production and this strategy has been successful in increasing Rolex revenue by increasing the sale of high profit margin DJ/TT/PM watches. This strategy has been executed for the past 2 years. Since Rolex is vertical company and controls almost all aspect of its productions, it could have easily increased the number SS production in a quarter or two if its really wanted to.

We tend to look at Rolex through the rose glasses but I truly believe SS sport watches were not selling well (2 years ago) and not able to maintain a good competitive/pricing edges to other watch manufactures such as Omega, GS,... Therefore Rolex has moved to a higher price bracket.

[wiscotrout]

Originally Posted by Jackumi

Rolex does not have a problem to solve, it is doing very nicely just as it is. Your world is focused on businesses that are constantly striving for increased profits and expansion for their survival. Rolex as a business does not need to do any of those things.

So all those half empty cases at AD's are not a problem? Especially in high rent areas where the #1 metric for retail space is $/sqft...If Rolex is different then why did they up production 6% for 2019?

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by wiscotrout

My day job is in supply chain, and I work in the retail sector focusing on getting the right product in the right place at the right time, and I can say with no hesitation, that Rolex is lousy at Demand Planning. Literally, if a major brand or retailer missed this badly on a quarterly basis, this consistently, the exec team would be looking for other jobs, even privately held ones. How they seem to get away with it is mind boggling.

Yes, of course the Rolex exec team needs to be punished, after all they are entirely responsible for the fact that millions of people in China, Southeast Asia and India have recently become rich enough to buy Rolex watches and desperately want Rolex watches! I am sure you would have done a much better job, what with all your supply chain experience. You would have built 100 factories in China, met demand, and as a side effect totally cheapened the Rolex brand.

Do I like the Rolex scarcity? No, I love it, since I have the Rolex I want. Now, lay off the Rolex exec team. They are doing an awesome job building their brand. Is it their job to make sure that everyone gets a Rolex? Hell no.