Expect even lower supply!

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Gary Busey

Head in the sand. They will react with a bit of lag. It’s coming.

Maybe keep an eye on the absurd 911 turbo market as well. That’s gonna blow up

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia
-2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000.
- 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers.
And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity.

Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those.
Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age.

This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc.

Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We

This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario.

Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ...

Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ...

I am a human doctor and I am specialist in Public Health.
I am agree with you 100% and also I want to complete your thread.
The Covid-19 crisis will continue till July-August minimum. Worst scenario is the end of this year.
This situation will affect harder more then ever in recent history the economy.
Also in my opinion now we will see who love the watche and and how many are on the waiting list just to earn money.

[Craigdwh]

Covid 19 pales in comparison to H1N1 but yet we have shut down the world for it.

Here's the thing NO ONE likes losing money, and in this environment 99% of people are losing money. This will end, sooner then most are predicting.

Dow at 10K, millions of deaths. My god, just go back to your bunker.

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by Flying Doctor

Wow! Some interesting views on this. Lets get a few things clear:

1) The clue is in the name that I might know a bit about this....
2) If you think this is going away today, tomorrow, this month or next month you are utterly deluded. This is here for 6 months at the very best. And I truly mean that.
3) Italy is a snapshot of what is coming. It is beyond indescribable. Poo-poo it at your very peril. Not just for you but those around out, especially anyone over the age of 60.....
4) This is nasty. It is random. Young people can be taken out with this - not everyone dying is 70+.
5) This virus does not understand wealth or anything else. We don't know why for most its mild and for others it is fatal....
6) We have to god hope this thing cannot mutate quickly. Coronavirus' are known to mutate. If it can do that then even the so called holy grail of a vaccine will not work and will need constant updating much like Flu vaccines.

Disagree with me if you will. That is of course your prerogative but mark my words - this is going to be like no period medically I have ever, ever seen and is only paralleled with Spanish Flu........

And no, this is not a rant. These are simply the facts. For those of us in the UK it is starting to bite. For those on the other side of the Atlantic it will be a week later......

FD.

Agree 100%

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by Craigdwh

Covid 19 pales in comparison to H1N1 but yet we have shut down the world for it.

Here's the thing NO ONE likes losing money, and in this environment 99% of people are losing money. This will end, sooner then most are predicting.

Dow at 10K, millions of deaths. My god, just go back to your bunker.

This is no doubt a serious crisis worldwide, but I don’t know if it’s movies, tv, what, but people seemed primed to want to go full apocalyptic wasteland thinking. I mean, we are inundated non-stop with news about it, so that doesn’t help. Just look at this forum, where half the threads are about the virus, but at this point the numbers are just not there. People definitely need to take this seriously and follow all recommended guidelines, for sure. I’m hunkered down at home for the most part, so maybe I’ll get cabin fever in a few days and start proclaiming the end of the world myself.

[Mrngrz46]

Patek called after 2 y, so soon shop open I will go... for sake of uncertainty I will take my watch.

To whom think Rolex and Patek will put in the display the hot model....continue to dream my dear...the whole "face" of the brand is linked to the availability of that models so do you think they will give up like that? Hulk,Batman, Daytona, Nautilus, Aquanaut for everyone? I don't think so.

I rather think now is bit special moment where for example common people like me (w/o huge $$$ purchase history) get a call from Patek..is a sign of market decline? maybe. Do I care? No so so let's take the chance....why not...

Counterwise to buy now at 2,3 times retail then I would think twice...

However as long as someone is earning money from this story (and someone of course is earning for masks, vaccine research, medical equipment, logistic etc etc) don't be afraid that watch are sold...and fast....

Someone smarter than me for sure once said: "buy when there is blood on the street even if blood is your own" cit.Baron Rothschild

[Gary Busey]

Originally Posted by Craigdwh

Covid 19 pales in comparison to H1N1 but yet we have shut down the world for it.

Here's the thing NO ONE likes losing money, and in this environment 99% of people are losing money. This will end, sooner then most are predicting.

Dow at 10K, millions of deaths. My god, just go back to your bunker.

That’s is false on almost all levels. You have it backwards. Covid has a significantly higher r-nought meaning it’s a lot more infectious. ALOT.
And if that’s not enough for you. It’s 10-20 times more deadly.
Only thing I agree on is that I think we’ll get thru this sooner rather than later.

Good opportunity to sever ties with China for good. Trade and economy wise

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by Craigdwh

This will end, sooner then most are predicting.

No, it won't. Also, please stop comparing it to h1n1.

[tjs00]

Originally Posted by LAREALTOR

With Rolex being shut down now, according to my AD today he wouldn't be surprised if Rolex is out of production for months. If you think it was bad already we haven't seen anything yet.

I read that as an increase in supply - I didn't think they were open that much historically...

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Mrngrz46

Patek called after 2 y, so soon shop open I will go... for sake of uncertainty I will take my watch.

To whom think Rolex and Patek will put in the display the hot model....continue to dream my dear...the whole "face" of the brand is linked to the availability of that models so do you think they will give up like that? Hulk,Batman, Daytona, Nautilus, Aquanaut for everyone? I don't think so.

I rather think now is bit special moment where for example common people like me (w/o huge $$$ purchase history) get a call from Patek..is a sign of market decline? maybe. Do I care? No so so let's take the chance....why not...

Counterwise to buy now at 2,3 times retail then I would think twice...

However as long as someone is earning money from this story (and someone of course is earning for masks, vaccine research, medical equipment, logistic etc etc) don't be afraid that watch are sold...and fast....

Someone smarter than me for sure once said: "buy when there is blood on the street even if blood is your own" cit.Baron Rothschild

The ‘face’? Lol have you ever been to a grand slam tennis event? Or other event endorsed by Rolex? They most certainly want everybody to have one. Or how about owned watches for more than 5 years? There was not some ‘exclusivity’ special club, this stock problem is all recent.

Stop with the exclusivity thing like Rolex is going to drum down production and only sell $20k+ timepieces, that’s not their ballgame.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia
-2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000.
- 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers.
And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity.

Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those.
Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age.

This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc.

Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We

This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario.

Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ...

Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ...

I have to say, I really appreciate your post here and I love your best wishes to Richard Mille brilliant!

[iTreelex]

Sometimes I go on TRF to get depressed once in a while. The weather's been great here, I feel like I need to balance that with a whole lot of man-child talk

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by iTreelex

Sometimes I go on TRF to get depressed once in a while. The weather's been great here, I feel like I need to balance that with a whole lot of man-child talk

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by Mrngrz46

However as long as someone is earning money from this story (and someone of course is earning for masks, vaccine research, medical equipment, logistic etc etc) don't be afraid that watch are sold...and fast....

Your post is a bit hard to read, but I just had to pick this little gem.

Medtronic is the biggest medical equipment company in the world. It's stock value is tanking.

3m is the biggest protective mask producer in the world. It's stock value is tanking.

I don't even want to mention the stock values of logistics companies.

So, if you were joking, haha well done. If not, well eh, yeah, you should do more research.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

Your post is a bit hard to read, but I just had to pick this little gem.

Medtronic is the biggest medical equipment company in the world. It's stock value is tanking.

3m is the biggest protective mask producer in the world. It's stock value is tanking.

I don't even want to mention the stock values of logistics companies.

So, if you were joking, haha well done. If not, well eh, yeah, you should do more research.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

I am a human doctor and I am specialist in Public Health.
I am agree with you 100% and also I want to complete your thread.
The Covid-19 crisis will continue till July-August minimum. Worst scenario is the end of this year.
This situation will affect harder more then ever in recent history the economy.
Also in my opinion now we will see who love the watche and and how many are on the waiting list just to earn money.

This is a good point actually.

I think grey dealers/flippers will do it tough... but I have been advocating very little change at Rolex ADs:

1) They're not open, so they won't be receiving shipments (no stock increase)
2) The factory is closed, so Rolex won't be producing watches (no one to ship to)

This means things won't change at the AD level in terms of stock - UNLESS - as you rightly point out, greys/flippers can no longer flog their wares for huge mark ups. I just have no way of gauging how many on the wait-list are grey/flippers VS people like me? Maybe their are/were more individuals, not necessarily grey/flippers who are purchasing watches just to move on?

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by Yess

This is a good point actually.

I think grey dealers/flippers will do it tough... but I have been advocating very little change at Rolex ADs:

1) They're not open, so they won't be receiving shipments (no stock increase)
2) The factory is closed, so Rolex won't be producing watches (no one to ship to)

This means things won't change at the AD level in terms of stock - UNLESS - as you rightly point out, greys/flippers can no longer flog their wares for huge mark ups. I just have no way of gauging how many on the wait-list are grey/flippers VS people like me? Maybe their are/were more individuals, not necessarily grey/flippers who are purchasing watches just to move on?

ADs in America are already firing people. "Retailers: At this point, most manufacturers have closed down, as have effectively all retailers in the United States and abroad. These stores represent the most important part of the sales chain, and they typically operate on a thin margin with large overhead. I have already heard personally from friends at some of the most well-known independent watch stores in the country that layoffs are imminent, and with state-mandated closures of all non-essential businesses, they have zero lifelines to sell the product they have. " Ben Clymer from Hodinkee yesterday, and they are a retailer, so he knows a thing or two.

The days of selecting clients, allocating entry level SS watches, bundle deals, and watches over MSRP are gone for a while. I would not touch a watch over MSRP for the next years.

People believe that Rolex shutting down production will limit supply. They still cover their costs, and they have no revenue. Are they going to produce only Daytonas after - no, but they will meet demands on every other model in e heart beat.

Also, I am new to this, but wasn't it normal to see Aquanauts, 5711, GMTS on the window 4-5 years ago? Weren't rare and hot, the Perpetual Calendars and the Presidentials, some of the older collectors may shine a light here.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

Also, I am new to this, but wasn't it normal to see Aquanauts, 5711, GMTS on the window 4-5 years ago? Weren't rare and hot, the Perpetual Calendars and the Presidentials, some of the older collectors may shine a light here.

I’ve been in this game about 12 years (still way less than some people) but I definitely saw quite a few years of what ‘normal’ looked like.

In 2014 I could get this (not an opinion through a third party, these are factual numbers I could have bought):

Sub/GMT- Easy 15% discount, 20% if you had purchased a lot before

5711- Considered a dated 70s design by many, easy 20% discount with no prior purchase history.

AP Royal Oak- Another Genta design, 30% discount on grey, I believe I was offered 20% at an AD if I remember correctly.

Aquanaut- this is the real surprise if you’re only seeing the market now. Vast majority of people thought it was just an ugly step child to the Nautilus, hated the grenade style dial, these were constantly in the case sitting. Never inquired firsthand from an AD, but you could buy it brand new from Grey all day for 30% under MSRP.

I’m saying those numbers as an individual who is a fan of all the above designs and always has been, in no way biased against them. Newer guys really don’t comprehend just how much the market has changed, these watches weren’t just selling at MSRP and are now inflated, they were selling at a STEEP discount before. The difference is mind boggling.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Gary Busey

That’s is false on almost all levels. You have it backwards. Covid has a significantly higher r-nought meaning it’s a lot more infectious. ALOT.
And if that’s not enough for you. It’s 10-20 times more deadly.
Only thing I agree on is that I think we’ll get thru this sooner rather than later.

Good opportunity to sever ties with China for good. Trade and economy wise

Thank you Gary, I can’t believe he was saying those things. Stay safe you guys..

[Homo Sapien X]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’ve been in this game about 12 years (still way less than some people) but I definitely saw quite a few years of what ‘normal’ looked like.

In 2014 I could get this (not an opinion through a third party, these are factual numbers I could have bought):

Sub/GMT- Easy 15% discount, 20% if you had purchased a lot before

5711- Considered a dated 70s design by many, easy 20% discount with no prior purchase history.

AP Royal Oak- Another Genta design, 30% discount on grey, I believe I was offered 20% at an AD if I remember correctly.

Aquanaut- this is the real surprise if you’re only seeing the market now. Vast majority of people thought it was just an ugly step child to the Nautilus, hated the grenade style dial, these were constantly in the case sitting. Never inquired firsthand from an AD, but you could buy it brand new from Grey all day for 30% under MSRP.

I’m saying those numbers as an individual who is a fan of all the above designs and always has been, in no way biased against them. Newer guys really don’t comprehend just how much the market has changed, these watches weren’t just selling at MSRP and are now inflated, they were selling at a STEEP discount before. The difference is mind boggling.

Thanks for sharing what you'd experienced, and i certainly agreed with you.
The intrinsic value of Stainless Steel Rolex/AP/Patek is actually negligible at best. When crisis happens, people would wake up.

[mjr24]

Honestly, who the hell knows what could happen with all the ridiculous fear mongering.

Social media turned the Hulk from literally an unwanted watch no one wanted into selling for a 70% premium in a year.

Social media can also turn a relatively benign sickness into the black plague, too.

What is most concerning is how real money changes (either increasing or decreasing in value) based on this speculative BS where 98% of the mongering is false or uninformed. This is why I am convinced that regardless of how benign COVID ends up being (like if we find a cure tomorrow), our government will drag out the fear mongering for as long as they can because they don't want citizens realizing they lost half their money over speculation that, in reality, turned out to be nothing.

I'm not saying it is nothing......but if we find out it's not as bad as everyone is thinking, the government isn't going to make us privy to that reality. By the way, a big FU to our politicians today for turning down this stimulus package based basically on party lines. Make no mistake, there is not one person in Congress who isn't rich.....they do not care about you or anyone else. They care about their stupid political party affiliations regardless of whether kids are being shot dead in schools or this.

That's why I laugh at these shelter in place rules.....I'll be damned if the government ever tells me when I can run my business regardless of their stupid rules.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by Gary Busey

That’s is false on almost all levels. You have it backwards. Covid has a significantly higher r-nought meaning it’s a lot more infectious. ALOT.
And if that’s not enough for you. It’s 10-20 times more deadly.
Only thing I agree on is that I think we’ll get thru this sooner rather than later.

Good opportunity to sever ties with China for good. Trade and economy wise

Yet half the population will cry and complain that Trump called it a Chinese virus (even though it 110% is....do not care who I offend. If it originated in a certain country, then that's what it is). This country is really reliant on what seems to be a POS country. That doesn't mean all of the people in are the same way.....but that country creates like 90% of the world's problems.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Honestly, who the hell knows what could happen with all the ridiculous fear mongering.

Social media turned the Hulk from literally an unwanted watch no one wanted into selling for a 70% premium in a year.

Social media can also turn a relatively benign sickness into the black plague, too.

What is most concerning is how real money changes (either increasing or decreasing in value) based on this speculative BS where 98% of the mongering is false or uninformed. This is why I am convinced that regardless of how benign COVID ends up being (like if we find a cure tomorrow), our government will drag out the fear mongering for as long as they can because they don't want citizens realizing they lost half their money over speculation that, in reality, turned out to be nothing.

I'm not saying it is nothing......but if we find out it's not as bad as everyone is thinking, the government isn't going to make us privy to that reality. By the way, a big FU to our politicians today for turning down this stimulus package based basically on party lines. Make no mistake, there is not one person in Congress who isn't rich.....they do not care about you or anyone else. They care about their stupid political party affiliations regardless of whether kids are being shot dead in schools or this.

That's why I laugh at these shelter in place rules.....I'll be damned if the government ever tells me when I can run my business regardless of their stupid rules.

Thanks for your logical, well thought out, factually based decision making process. I’m happy you can laugh at things which are *proven* to prevent misfortune and death.

The funniest excerpt is how you continue to say ‘was nothing’ while there’s simultaneously approaching half a million people being infected (and growing daily). That there is nothing!!!!

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by dmash

Thanks for your logical, well thought out, factually based decision making process. I’m happy you can laugh at things which are *proven* to prevent misfortune and death.

The funniest excerpt is how you continue to say ‘was nothing’ while there’s simultaneously approaching half a million people being infected (and growing daily). That there is nothing!!!!

Here is another thing proven to cause "misfortune" or, rather, loss of fortune....not going to work when your government will do ZERO for you when you can't pay your bills....except give you an extra whole 30 days and a check for $1000 whole dollars (which will be like $700 after taxes)....which basically is only a lot of money to someone who currently is homeless or a high schooler. For anyone who has a job let alone a mortgage, $1000 will do NOTHING.

Yeah, that will remove any fortune most people have. I don't work in a factory with a ton of people or with old people....I am not endangering anyone. Again, this is job specific.....some people do work with old people and or around lots of people and they should indeed take heed. I do not....thus I am going to do what I need to do in order to put food on the table.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Here is another thing proven to cause "misfortune" or, rather, loss of fortune....not going to work when your government will do ZERO for you when you can't pay your bills....except give you an extra whole 30 days and a check for $1000 whole dollars (which will be like $700 after taxes)....which basically is only a lot of money to someone who currently is homeless or a high schooler. For anyone who has a job let alone a mortgage, $1000 will do NOTHING.

Yeah, that will remove any fortune most people have. I don't work in a factory with a ton of people or with old people....I am not endangering anyone. Again, this is job specific.....some people do work with old people and or around lots of people and they should indeed take heed. I do not....thus I am going to do what I need to do in order to put food on the table.

I 100% agree with you on the front that the government should intervene more. But the solution is not to possibly spread the virus more by ceasing to implement the only possible thing we can do at this point to curb the infection rate.

You’re still thinking with tunnel vision. Ok so one of your employees get sick and the only person at YOUR workplace who gets infected are non-immunocompromised, healthy individuals. Now what about the mother or grandparent they visit later that day? What about their now pregnant wife they go home to every night? Think bigger picture, widen your perspective.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by dmash

I 100% agree with you on the front that the government should intervene more. But the solution is not to possibly spread the virus more by ceasing to implement the only possible thing we can do at this point to curb the infection rate.

You’re still thinking with tunnel vision. Ok so one of your employees get sick and the only person at YOUR workplace who gets infected are non-immunocompromised, healthy individuals. Now what about the mother or grandparent they visit later that day? What about their now pregnant wife they go home to every night? Think bigger picture, widen your perspective.

I appreciate your example....and maybe my view is not what you make it out to be. I work alone....there literally is no one I can endanger. I will be working everyday regardless of what our governor orders (because of the fact I am not endangering anyone).

In your particular example, I would then agree. However, most of these shelter in place orders are ass-backwards. Work with 150 people in an assembly line? You are essential, you need to come to work. Work with no one or two healthy adults on their own in a particular setting? You are non-essential, you are not allowed to work. It gets so old.....

You can see how this really doesn't solve anything.

My anger is towards government....which is basically corrupt or fraudulent in every country. We are having this issue because China lied and because our supposed amazing hi-tech country wasn't even close to being prepared. It's pathetic. Hey, I pay my taxes and am patriotic like anyone else.....but government is continuously a bunch of asshats regardless of who is President, what party is majority, etc. They could care less about normal people.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by mjr24

I appreciate your example....and maybe my view is not what you make it out to be. I work alone....there literally is no one I can endanger. I will be working everyday regardless of what our governor orders (because of the fact I am not endangering anyone).

In your particular example, I would then agree. However, most of these shelter in place orders are ass-backwards. Work with 150 people in an assembly line? You are essential, you need to come to work. Work with no one or two healthy adults on their own in a particular setting? You are non-essential, you are not allowed to work.

You can see how this really doesn't solve anything.

If you are alone (or only a small knit group of individuals) or can work from home, absolutely in no way should your business be shut down, there’s no reason for that. I thought you were implying you had 50 employees up under you in addition to possibly customers as well.

Apologies if I misinterpreted that.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by dmash

If you are alone (or only a small knit group of individuals) or can work from home, absolutely in no way should your business be shut down, there’s no reason for that. I thought you were implying you had 50 employees up under you in addition to possibly customers as well.

Apologies if I misinterpreted that.

No, my fault for not clarifying.....

[sl55on20s]

Originally Posted by Craigdwh

Covid 19 pales in comparison to H1N1 but yet we have shut down the world for it.

Here's the thing NO ONE likes losing money, and in this environment 99% of people are losing money. This will end, sooner then most are predicting.

Dow at 10K, millions of deaths. My god, just go back to your bunker.

+1.

I bet we won't cross a million domestic death from this virus like some "experts" are claiming but we sure in hell will have millions who are unemployed, millions who suffer from mental issues because of this virus and the economic damage we'll be cleaning up fro the next few years.

[Rado63]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’ve been in this game about 12 years (still way less than some people) but I definitely saw quite a few years of what ‘normal’ looked like.

In 2014 I could get this (not an opinion through a third party, these are factual numbers I could have bought):

Sub/GMT- Easy 15% discount, 20% if you had purchased a lot before

5711- Considered a dated 70s design by many, easy 20% discount with no prior purchase history.

AP Royal Oak- Another Genta design, 30% discount on grey, I believe I was offered 20% at an AD if I remember correctly.

Aquanaut- this is the real surprise if you’re only seeing the market now. Vast majority of people thought it was just an ugly step child to the Nautilus, hated the grenade style dial, these were constantly in the case sitting. Never inquired firsthand from an AD, but you could buy it brand new from Grey all day for 30% under MSRP.

I’m saying those numbers as an individual who is a fan of all the above designs and always has been, in no way biased against them. Newer guys really don’t comprehend just how much the market has changed, these watches weren’t just selling at MSRP and are now inflated, they were selling at a STEEP discount before. The difference is mind boggling.

The only thing missing in this analysis is that difference between 2012 and 2020, is the elite Swiss watch makers changed their business plan and cut retailers, limited supply, and don't let product sit in the display.