Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I'm done with this place.. I asked them to delete my account.

[Rolextellstime]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

This hasn’t been my observation. And it wasn’t all that long ago (last 5-10 years) where ADs were discounting pretty big time. That’s definitely coming again in the coming years.


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Yes, and despite the discounts they were still making money, might very well happen again and likely it will. Nothing stays up forever

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[train-time]

Originally Posted by dmash

You’re completely disregarding the reality of this dropping further and lots of current owners who *werent* watch people, getting out before they lose money. There’s a huge population (my opinion) of these guys who are sweating right now. You’re basing the entire market future on nobody else ever selling another watch, and AD/current grey market is the finite supply.

I firmly believe we’ve still not seen anything yet. For all markets.

Well said! The correction is not over yet. We need to experience the upcoming year first. I believe you are right about this "population" that exists on many platforms and at a surprisingly young and inexperienced to economic risk age dynamic. My local AD introduced my to just one of these guys and I was surprised by his age group and my impression was that he totally lacked any wisdom and had no respect for the potential of downside economic risk of what he was involved in.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by train-time

Well said! The correction is not over yet. We need to experience the upcoming year first. I believe you are right about this "population" that exists on many platforms and at a surprisingly young and inexperienced to economic risk age dynamic. My local AD introduced my to just one of these guys and I was surprised by his age group and my impression was that he totally lacked any wisdom and had no respect for the potential of downside economic risk of what he was involved in.

Yup. I have a younger brother and am well aware of this mindset. I was a freshly minted adult during last true recession and it was a learning experience for me. A lot of 20 years olds are riding a high from COVID money thinking life is always this easy/the government will always save them……that it’s impossible to default on loans, that a handout is always going to be there.

People thought 2020-2022 sucked because of masks/social distancing, wait until they see what 2023 looks when a recession truly starts affecting your lifestyle ability. This isn’t a doom a gloom post, it’s more disbelief that instead of adequately preparing there’s a bunch of guys/gals who simply refuse to believe stuff can’t go sour.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by train-time

Well said! The correction is not over yet. We need to experience the upcoming year first. I believe you are right about this "population" that exists on many platforms and at a surprisingly young and inexperienced to economic risk age dynamic. My local AD introduced my to just one of these guys and I was surprised by his age group and my impression was that he totally lacked any wisdom and had no respect for the potential of downside economic risk of what he was involved in.

In asset management/finance, there is a generation who has never worked during an economical crisis. In Switzerland, the last economical crisis was in 2001...
In some countries, only the baby boomers understand what inflation meant (daily life, projects, job, etc).

It is hard to blame them. (Even if it would not kill to read History books once in a while)

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by HAL330

good points but we have to ask ourselves.. just because there are 200-400 BNIB Subs out there circulating between several gray dealers, the fact that even now in this massively depressed economic state, you STILL can't walk in and buy one at the AD and a "bargain" on one at the Gray market is still 20% above MSRP, that says something about the demand... Forget 1 year ago, that was pure hype and spectators thinking watches are the next bitcoin, now it's pure watch buyers.. and you and I aren't the typical buyer.. he doesn't sit on a forum chatting. watches, he's clueless as to what Moda is asking.. he researches his watch prices on google (Chrono24, Watchbox, etc)..

I see no correlation between fact that there is still (but for how long?) demand for MSRP Rolex watches from an AD and willingness to pay more for a used watch with someone else's DNA.

Hype has evaporated. So has ability to flip and make a profit on most watches.

There are a ton of buyers/"investors" (who did not purchase with intent to wear) with remorse and inability to unload without a big loss.

I doubt the buyers who propped up this buying spree will be back the market in the foreseeable future. And without these buyers, I think we will continue to return to more normal times.

And about that "bargain" word. Compared to what? The insane prices that could not last? Ok. But not compared to demand which is circling the drain.

I do not consider 20% above MSRP a "bargain" for a used mass produced non vintage watch. The fact that bread and butter Rolex are sitting at that price on sellers websites, and the fact that you cannot sell to a dealer without getting a massive haircut, tells me others share my view.

[Mathematoxic]

I guess many out there still think that they are able to flip for a profit.. there also exist a significant group of genuine collectors who will buy from ADs and wear the watch. So demand at ADs will remain high for now… but not for very long. Just be patient, watches at MSRP will definitely come for most of the models. Patience guys!

[GGGMT]

Watches remain a great investment, ‘better stored than wored’ as they say.


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[ThatOtherGuy7]

So how long until I get a Daytona panda? Haha

[Modiferous]

Sotheby's sold quite a lot of fine watches today at auction at pretty good prices for some of the auctions.

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...line?locale=en

The sold prices noted include the 25% auctioneer surcharge.


A Patek 5711/1A-010 sold for 113400 CHF - I guess that's the market now, no more $250K! (although 1stDibs is still trying to sell one for even more than that).

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Modiferous

Sotheby's sold quite a lot of fine watches today at auction at pretty good prices for some of the auctions.

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...line?locale=en

The sold prices noted include the 25% auctioneer surcharge.


A Patek 5711/1A-010 sold for 113400 CHF - I guess that's the market now, no more $250K! (although 1stDibs is still trying to sell one for even more than that).

There were 5 pages. So several passed.

Interesting also to see that the prices are inside the estimate. Last 2 years, they were always over the max with nice lots a x2.5 the max.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Modiferous

Sotheby's sold quite a lot of fine watches today at auction at pretty good prices for some of the auctions.

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...line?locale=en

The sold prices noted include the 25% auctioneer surcharge.


A Patek 5711/1A-010 sold for 113400 CHF - I guess that's the market now, no more $250K! (although 1stDibs is still trying to sell one for even more than that).

I need to login to see the results? Is this something new?

[Modiferous]

You should be able to see all 168 results for the Sotheby's auction without creating any account or logging in.

[1665fan]

Buy the dip……the desireable pieces will rebound

[Modiferous]

I just today saw a brand new unworn 5711 Patek, white dial, 2019 model, sell on a dealer network under 100K.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

In asset management/finance, there is a generation who has never worked during an economical crisis. In Switzerland, the last economical crisis was in 2001...
In some countries, only the baby boomers understand what inflation meant (daily life, projects, job, etc).

It is hard to blame them. (Even if it would not kill to read History books once in a while)

Yes, we keep being told by the young that the they have had it really hard, and we had it easy all our lives.

Sadly, can’t help feeling they are in for a shock…

[dmash]

2020 white Daytona, box and papers, $27k

still going down

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by dmash

2020 white Daytona, box and papers, $27k

still going down

There are 506 WW on C24. 116 in the US. Cheapest today is $30K. It’s going to go down at least another 20% in the next 3 months. That’s my prediction. Hard to see it going lower than that. But we should see many more for sale in the mid 20s.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

There are 506 WW on C24. 116 in the US. Cheapest today is $30K. It’s going to go down at least another 20% in the next 3 months. That’s my prediction. Hard to see it going lower than that. But we should see many more for sale in the mid 20s.

I see black dial settling below 20, white right at 20. A small premium on Daytona will make sense, it will remain desirable after whatever passes and there really isn't a ton of them produced like a Submariner. So a ~20% markup is completely in the realm of normalcy. Current level is still absurd though.

[ThatOtherGuy7]

I’ll pay about $18K for a white dial Daytona. Easier vs waiting and putting up with AD.

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by dmash

I see black dial settling below 20, white right at 20. A small premium on Daytona will make sense, it will remain desirable after whatever passes and there really isn't a ton of them produced like a Submariner. So a ~20% markup is completely in the realm of normalcy. Current level is still absurd though.

Daytona's will also be the ones to drop the slowest. Even in the late 90s in Singapore, the AD there would sell the SS Daytona for 20% above MSRP, back when they were permitted to do that.

If I was hunting for one next year, I'd be looking for private parties everywhere I could even Craigslist. For example, I saw a 2002 16610 Sub selling for $9500 (seller will take $9K) on Craigslist. That's a 50% gain on the final MSRP of $6K.

[GGGMT]

This thread embodies the last 6 months

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app


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[Nicof]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

This thread embodies the last 6 months

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app


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Riveting read


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[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

This thread embodies the last 6 months

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app

100%!!

I whish I could give you thumb up to boost your karma like on reddit. Superb find.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Nicof

Riveting read


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+1

How to not sell an asset...

[dmash]

Hahahahaha that is hilarious.

and I can almost guarantee you it didn't go for $18 lol

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

This thread embodies the last 6 months

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app


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LOL!!

Almost looks like an April Fools post; that's how funny it is.

[dmash]

black dial full set Daytona, 23.8k

[messikens]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

This thread embodies the last 6 months

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app


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Lol this is a great find. I've bookmarked it and gotten my popcorn out. Especially love how market was tanking but price was raised 20% because of the condition.

Now it's worn, no end in sight of the knife falling and still sitting.

I give kudos to posting the actual sales receipt but it shows the insanity over the past 18months!

"Hey, I got a mass-produced, non-rare, non-handfinished, still in production product for 10k. Would you like to take it off my hands for a tidy 200% (!!!) profit for me?"

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Yes, we keep being told by the young that the they have had it really hard, and we had it easy all our lives.

Sadly, can’t help feeling they are in for a shock…

When you're so far ahead in the race that you're starting to lap everyone, you might start to think you're behind...