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ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
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#151 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2023
Location: Earth
Posts: 37
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Quote:
That is mathematical fact. Unless they can magic a bunch of 35 year olds into existence in the next 5 years they are facing a total meltdown of their economy. |
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#152 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Real Name: Frank
Location: Dallas,NY,Colo.
Watch: Patek 5168, 5170P
Posts: 2,517
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I think it’s a fools errand to predict the future price of any security, product etc. I have heard from three resellers of high end watches that their business has sharply picked up recently. Is that a trend? Who knows?
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#153 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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That’s smoke and mirrors. Look at any of the dealer chats or B2B networks. Prices haven’t picked up.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#154 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2023
Real Name: Nadeem
Location: Chicago
Watch: GMT BLNR
Posts: 957
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Prices still seem pretty steady with grey dealers. I just reviewed pricing for the BLNR and still see pricing around $16-18K.
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#155 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 1,899
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Prices will probably move up slightly ~US tax refund time then drop quite a bit.
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#156 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Real Name: Frank
Location: Dallas,NY,Colo.
Watch: Patek 5168, 5170P
Posts: 2,517
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#157 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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So heightened demand with a static supply and pricing? Sounds like that defies some basic economic concepts.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#158 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Joe
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: Daytona + GMT BLNR
Posts: 4,745
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Increase in demand + static supply means higher prices (2016-2022). As demand starts to taper some due to flipper slowing/less Covid money and when/if Rolex increases production/supply we will most likely see prices adjust down accordingly for preowned and possible discounts for certain models like DJ.
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#159 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Real Name: Knackers
Location: NI/Aust/USA
Watch: and wait
Posts: 3,230
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When it wants to.
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The educated often only know what they have read or been lectured on. |
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#160 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: ByDawns Earlylite
Watch: 16800
Posts: 3,578
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Six pages of what use to be deleted. Missing the old days.
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#161 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 11,045
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After market values have become so important to lots of Rolex buyers. If the used prices would fall below MSRP on most models, a lot of new buyers at ADs in my view, would drop out. There needs to be a cost of ownership to restore sanity to the market.
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#162 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: SFO
Posts: 1,191
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I for one appreciate the mods moving such discussions to the watch out forum rather than deleting it. It's part of the watch discussions and discourse. If you don't like it done read it / comment on it. AND it doesn't clog up the main Rolex forum Win win in my book |
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#163 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: London
Posts: 63
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#164 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: May 2008
Real Name: Matt
Location: Wine Country, Ca
Posts: 5,929
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Until grey and secondhand dealers decide to let pieces go for less than they paid for them, you will continue to see higher prices.
A lot of the prices are inflated because watch dealers trade amongst themselves, stating that the watch is sold for X dollars (inflated price) when in fact it was only sold to another dealer in order to move inventory. Most likely that dealer will pass the watch to another dealer, showing that it too was sold at an inflated price. Unless we know that any of these watches were sold to end users, this game will continue.
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TRF Member 11738 |
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#165 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Indiana
Watch: GMT BLRO
Posts: 1,750
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Modern 6 digit watches are selling and moving still, that includes from secondary sellers to end consumer not just B2B. I’m hunting for a couple references and watching the market and they are selling and moving, maybe not as fast as a year ago but they’re a moving for sure.
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#166 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: Merica
Posts: 1,315
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I think the watch market is bottoming. Various prices are down 40-60% from the highs and just above pre covid prices. If you draw a trend line over the last 6-7 years, prices are probably where they should be in a still popular market.
Can prices go down another 10-20%? Maybe, but you will most likely never be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom. Buying near the bottom is pretty good in my book. If you see something you like that was 40k before covid, 100k at the top and 50k now... it's time to buy. Could it go to 40-45k, again who knows, but it's a heck of a buy at 50. Same goes for a watch that was 10k, went to 18k, now you can buy for 13. Time to buy if you love the watch. |
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#167 | |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 37,173
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Quote:
I’ve done just that with multiple pieces but I have no illusions that it’s a sure thing. If the bottom were to fall out of the stock market or economy at large we could go much much lower. I don’t care. There’s a lot out there at prices I can stomach.
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#168 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2020
Real Name: Ron the Stoic
Location: Netherlands
Watch: GMT Meteorite
Posts: 1,330
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Quote:
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#169 | |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 375
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Quote:
Sea Dwellers, gold subs, gold day dates, yacht masters, deep sea, explorers, gold sky dwellers are all below retail. |
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#170 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 44
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Want to know what the true value of your watch is? Try to sell it to multiple dealers and see what they'll pay.
Don't bother at looking at "asking" prices.
__________________
116710LN, 116610LV, 116503, 114300, 26238ST, 26424BC, 26420CE, 26240ST |
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#171 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 165
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The true value of my watch (to me) is the pleasure of owning, and wearing, such a finely engineered (mass produced, albeit) piece of machinery in this age of iPhones, Apple Watches, etc, etc. My daily wear is a 116710BLNR that I routinely bang against pistons, handlebars and frames and daily submerge multiple times in a tank of mineral spirits to degrease engine parts. The fact that it just keeps going and going makes me happy. When I want to get "fancy" I give it a good washing in dish soap and head out on the town.
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#172 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: NY
Posts: 736
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#173 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2023
Location: MD
Posts: 14
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Prices will bottom fall of 2025 where they will stay permanently
The peak we saw in 2022 will stand for decades to come |
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#174 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: NY
Posts: 736
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Quote:
Reducing "asking" prices is a signal of market weakness that sellers dont want to flash. Decline in asking prices will lag decline in actual selling prices IMHO |
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#175 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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Quote:
MODA is the most liquid watch market out there, so if something isn’t moving there, it’s blatantly mispriced by definition. 15500st fullset just went for $30.5k at auction there (if you even believe that it’s not a shill bid). That’s literally retail price in CA
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#176 | |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: USA
Watch: YM42 Ti
Posts: 2,625
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Quote:
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Official Member "WIS-CON" Las Vegas International GTG 2019 |
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#177 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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Quote:
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#178 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: Merica
Posts: 1,315
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Quote:
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#179 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: Merica
Posts: 1,315
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Quote:
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#180 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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Quote:
Issue is that what you are quoting as market prices aren’t moving. What is the true market clearing price is the rate at which buyer and seller are willing to transact. Sure, Moda skews more towards wholesale but frankly, it’s becoming more of a retail channel and people are more privy to it. Competitive dealers will price Within 10% of what is transacting at Moda.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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