Expect even lower supply!

[YYZed]

Originally Posted by Rado63

The only thing missing in this analysis is that difference between 2012 and 2020, is the elite Swiss watch makers changed their business plan and cut retailers, limited supply, and don't let product sit in the display.

Did they though? Just for stainless watches? 'Cause I have seen PM watches sitting in cases for a while. I also thought Rolex vehemently stated they have never reduced supply; only that there is (err was) a greater demand for SS across the globe due to new found prosperity in more countries.

[Nikrnic]

Theres going to be a bigger supply on the used market due to many people looking to dump.

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[Pam673]

This flipping game bubble has busted! People flipping say, a Hulk 50 times for a $100 profit on each transaction are truly over.

The music has stopped and the greys are all left without a chair, exposing their naked buttocks with balls tugged. Not a pretty sight!

What's going to be even more hilarious is if the irrational exuberance in the last couple of years was predominately generated by flippers flipping among themselves.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by russ86

I don't think majority of people who buy Rolex would change buying habits. For example I got a call from my AD literally 2 days ago, a watch that I was on a list for came in finally, obviously I pulled the trigger right away. Markets will stabilize eventually and everything will be back to normal.

i agree. Also, on supply/demand/price people who are thrown into unemplyment because of this weren't buyers of luxury watches that start at $9000. Maybe a very very few. Hopefully they are all back at work very soon.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

i agree. Also, on supply/demand/price people who are thrown into unemplyment because of this weren't buyers of luxury watches that start at $9000. Maybe a very very few. Hopefully they are all back at work very soon.

Absolutely ridiculous assumption

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by c41006

That’s a tad bit extreme

Were the closures to continue into the summer, the Dow will definitely be in the low single digits. Second quarter numbers will already be bleak and how much of that is priced into the current level is unknown. Once guidance is re-instated, the markets will stabilize. Its the unknown that really panics the market. The good news is the move afoot to re-open for business sooner not later.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Were the closures to continue into the summer, the Dow will definitely be in the low single digits. Second quarter numbers will already be bleak and how much of that is priced into the current level is unknown. Once guidance is re-instated, the markets will stabilize. Its the unknown that really panics the market. The good news is the move afoot to re-open for business sooner not later.

A lot of people are underestimating that reality (if it’s not priced in at current level). Once quarter ends and numbers are released this has a LONG way to go if it’s not currently representative of those upcoming numbers. I for one don’t think it is.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Gary Busey

That’s is false on almost all levels. You have it backwards. Covid has a significantly higher r-nought meaning it’s a lot more infectious. ALOT.
And if that’s not enough for you. It’s 10-20 times more deadly.
Only thing I agree on is that I think we’ll get thru this sooner rather than later.

Good opportunity to sever ties with China for good. Trade and economy wise

Thanks for the scientists mumbo jumbo.. R3 rating? I do not think so. if you are infectious, you will infect everyone you come in contact with even if they may not develop symptoms. We throw out common sense these days which is regrettable. That was the case in Westchester County, NY. One lawyer infected over 50 people. I guess he did not get the memo about R3.

[LndLord]

Another thread

[L_S_SHOE]

Proclamations like this are silly but not unexpected. I think they’re usually driven by an ulterior motive.

ADs are worried about future sales (though they probably shouldn’t). Gray dealers are worried about the hundreds of thousands of dollars of stock the have sitting in a safe somewhere and are unlikely to sell any time soon, and certainly not at the inflated prices they had expected. And then there are the buyers who overpaid. If you overpaid because you loved the watch and wanted to give it to your kid one day, nothing that is happening now should bother you. If you overpaid and you still thought it would be a good investment, the future is looking bleak. I have a feeling there are many people out here who fall into that latter category.


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[RolexBuff]

Well, Rolex is not a scarce commodity but rather an abundant one. Just checked C24, and there is 80k Rolexes listed just on this platform. So, it is safe to assume that right now, hundreds thousands of Rolex watches are listed for sale around the globe, and most of them without move because of ridiculous asking prices. As people will be needing more cash down the road, more bargain prices will pop up. As simple as that.

[Bearxj86]

The hammer, and the dance against COVID-19

Don't be misinformed - this is the playbook. Lockdown beyond a few weeks in economic suicide.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

[vikingboy777]

I have noticed AD's miraculously finding they have Rolex models come into stock this last week and especially last weekend. Lots of people getting calls to say their watch has arrived. Rolex obviously decided to offload a load of units before the lockdown. Just goes to show they have them in stock if they wish to supply them !

[rudestew]

Originally Posted by socalwatchcollector

Not even close. This virus may kill 9 million total people over a span of years but starvation kills roughly 9 million yearly. By that time there will be a new virus to worry about. This isn't the early 1900's. Advanced medicine and technology will dominate this thing in due time.

BUUUUUT starvation only kills the poor and isn't it a shame that its such a simple thing to cure

[jerryguo]

Yes supply could be impacted because of factory shutdown, but I think demand will drop further. And let's not forget the stock pile of inventory in the grey market. price will inevitably drop.

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by jerryguo

Yes supply could be impacted because of factory shutdown, but I think demand will drop further. And let's not forget the stock pile of inventory in the grey market. price will inevitably drop.

So the question now: Will people continue to want a Pepsi if no one else does?


I will continue to pursue this model when the appropriate time comes for me. Which, after recent events in my life, will not be for years now.

[GMT Aviator]

Personally, I would wager that the Rolex factory shutdown will be nothing more than a small bump in the road.
Short lived and will have little to no effect.
The majority of Rolex customers aren't even shopping for a watch whilst the factory is closed.

[Lnt5]

Originally Posted by socalwatchcollector

+1 Close to 25000 people die from hunger EVERY day and another 25000 tomorrow and every day after that. This virus won't touch those numbers by a long shot.

Hunger does discriminate based on geography and socioeconomic. Hunger is not contagious. Where as the virus does not discriminate. Bill Gates will never go hungry but he can catch the virus.


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[Highlatitude]

ADs will continue to have low stock, maybe even lower stock because Rolex is shut down. Rolex will not drop their RRP at all. People who have been on waiting lists and are financially secure will still buy if they want the watch but there will be less people interested. Flippers will not buy because most greys will not pay a worthwhile price. Greys will try to hold their prices and ride out the storm. In the face of very low sales or no sales some will liquidate their stock fearing a crash and the market will soften considerably causing others to loose their nerve and do the same. The fashion pieces that traditional Rolex buyers don’t care much about that have been hyped by Instagram and have the largest difference between AD RRP and grey prices will be hit hard. Hulks, Pepsis and Daytonas. Less hyped pieces will drop to just below AD prices and stay there.

The economic shutdown will come to an end before the medical crisis is over because people will get used to the risk and need the money. Governments will know they cannot sustain an open ended lockdown until a vaccine arrives and will declare that the crisis is passed with a peak in demand for medical services delayed and flattened out to a manageable level. Elderly and other high risk people will become the recipients of Government help whilst the strong will have to go back to work with a range of measures designed to reduce risk such a thermal camera monitoring and more people working from home, less travel, video conferences etc. Some industries will be hit hard others less so. The governments will justify the change of policy by explaining that a failed economy would lead to more deaths in the long term than would be caused by the virus. Drugs that lessen the chance of serious symptoms will be available, they will be ones previously licensed for use for other illnesses and found to be effective. One factor that will help is that pharmaceutical companies will share research data and profits for the common good.

Normality will return by mid summer and as confidence grows the markets will pickup and only be down a relatively small amount from where they were. Governments will have extensively used Quantitive Easing programmes to add hundreds of billions into their economies without causing significant inflation.

People will start buying Rolex again and some greys will have survived but the hype will have died down and Rolex and their ADs will have to rely on sales to the traditional buyer again. SS Daytonas will remain the only hard to get model. ADs will hide other steel models in the safe but get them out when they are requested and pretend they are providing great service to their buyers. Rolex/ADs will find that the hype of the last few years has given people retail fatigue for the brand but Rolex will manage supply carefully to hide this.

[Homo Sapien X]

Originally Posted by Highlatitude

ADs will continue to have low stock, maybe even lower stock because Rolex is shut down. Rolex will not drop their RRP at all. People who have been on waiting lists and are financially secure will still buy if they want the watch but there will be less people interested. Flippers will not buy because most greys will not pay a worthwhile price. Greys will try to hold their prices and ride out the storm. In the face of very low sales or no sales some will liquidate their stock fearing a crash and the market will soften considerably causing others to loose their nerve and do the same. The fashion pieces that traditional Rolex buyers don’t care much about that have been hyped by Instagram and have the largest difference between AD RRP and grey prices will be hit hard. Hulks, Pepsis and Daytonas. Less hyped pieces will drop to just below AD prices and stay there.

The economic shutdown will come to an end before the medical crisis is over because people will get used to the risk and need the money. Governments will know they cannot sustain an open ended lockdown until a vaccine arrives and will declare that the crisis is passed with a peak in demand for medical services delayed and flattened out to a manageable level. Elderly and other high risk people will become the recipients of Government help whilst the strong will have to go back to work with a range of measures designed to reduce risk such a thermal camera monitoring and more people working from home, less travel, video conferences etc. Some industries will be hit hard others less so. The governments will justify the change of policy by explaining that a failed economy would lead to more deaths in the long term than would be caused by the virus. Drugs that lessen the chance of serious symptoms will be available, they will be ones previously licensed for use for other illnesses and found to be effective. One factor that will help is that pharmaceutical companies will share research data and profits for the common good.

Normality will return by mid summer and as confidence grows the markets will pickup and only be down a relatively small amount from where they were. Governments will have extensively used Quantitive Easing programmes to add hundreds of billions into their economies without causing significant inflation.

People will start buying Rolex again and some greys will have survived but the hype will have died down and Rolex and their ADs will have to rely on sales to the traditional buyer again. SS Daytonas will remain the only hard to get model. ADs will hide other steel models in the safe but get them out when they are requested and pretend they are providing great service to their buyers. Rolex/ADs will find that the hype of the last few years has given people retail fatigue for the brand but Rolex will manage supply carefully to hide this.

Interesting. Sounds like you have some Rolex watches in your safe.

[Homo Sapien X]

Originally Posted by EndlessEight

So the question now: Will people continue to want a Pepsi if no one else does?


I will continue to pursue this model when the appropriate time comes for me. Which, after recent events in my life, will not be for years now.

Very good question.
If the price of Pepsi falls below MSRP, and Rolex starts to release supply floodgate with Pepsi displaying in every ADs. Will you buy it?

I asked myself such question for a Daytona (116500LN), the answer is negative. I reckon these models are selling well mainly for its perceived value retention.

[pradeepraavi]

Originally Posted by Pam673

This flipping game bubble has busted! People flipping say, a Hulk 50 times for a $100 profit on each transaction are truly over.

The music has stopped and the greys are all left without a chair, exposing their naked buttocks with balls tugged. Not a pretty sight!

What's going to be even more hilarious is if the irrational exuberance in the last couple of years was predominately generated by flippers flipping among themselves.

lol

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Homo Sapien X

Very good question.
If the price of Pepsi falls below MSRP, and Rolex starts to release supply floodgate with Pepsi displaying in every ADs. Will you buy it?

I asked myself such question for a Daytona (116500LN), the answer is negative. I reckon these models are selling well mainly for its perceived value retention.

The Instagram and hype crowd has moved on. I think it’s been heading this way for awhile now. The economy and virus really just brought it to the surface like a prepubescents pimple that’s about to burst.

[Spencer]

I'm one of the people that got the call last week from my AD (very close friend) that my Pepsi came. As far as "desirable" models go, he said he also got a Platinum Daytona, 2 Batmans, and 1 BatGirl.

Everything is cyclical. I've been a member here a LONG time and can recall very similar threads post great recession of 2008. What happened to the supply and demand then? Granted Subs weren't nearly as impossible to get then, but good luck finding a SS Daytona. Anyways, Rolex knows what they are doing, I for one don't think this will effect retail availability much, or Rolexes bottom line all that much at the end of the day.

[Texex]

Originally Posted by h25b

this..... ^^^^

+2

[Texex]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

If we all do our part, including the government. They need to open up the piggy bank push 2+ trillion into the economy and we as citizens just stay home, do not go out for a couple of weeks we can peak out by April/May and get back to business by 3rd quarter. BOTH need to happen for a quick recovery. China is already in second gear, we can do the same.

I think this ^ is closer to what's likely

[Frakis]

Originally Posted by Spencer

I'm one of the people that got the call last week from my AD (very close friend) that my Pepsi came. As far as "desirable" models go, he said he also got a Platinum Daytona, 2 Batmans, and 1 BatGirl.

Everything is cyclical. I've been a member here a LONG time and can recall very similar threads post great recession of 2008. What happened to the supply and demand then? Granted Subs weren't nearly as impossible to get then, but good luck finding a SS Daytona. Anyways, Rolex knows what they are doing, I for one don't think this will effect retail availability much, or Rolexes bottom line all that much at the end of the day.

Your AD received 2 Batmans and 1 Batgirl last week?? Not sure how that is possible... possibly a typo?

[springer]

Originally Posted by Chaching

When Tens of Millions of Americans are Unemployed and can’t put food on the table, loose their homes etc..... it isn’t gonna matter. I will also add the record levels of Corporate Debt Zombies out there. This is the straw that will break the Camel’s back.

Excuse me, but I suggest you tune to another channel. You're getting some very poor info somewhere - either on the net or on your favorite cable channel.

Everything will be fine real soon. Trust me, I have connections

[springer]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Oh my, behave. You're scaring the children!

[Lnt5]

Originally Posted by Spencer

I'm one of the people that got the call last week from my AD (very close friend) that my Pepsi came. As far as "desirable" models go, he said he also got a Platinum Daytona, 2 Batmans, and 1 BatGirl.

Everything is cyclical. I've been a member here a LONG time and can recall very similar threads post great recession of 2008. What happened to the supply and demand then? Granted Subs weren't nearly as impossible to get then, but good luck finding a SS Daytona. Anyways, Rolex knows what they are doing, I for one don't think this will effect retail availability much, or Rolexes bottom line all that much at the end of the day.

What were grey prices for Daytona around 2008?


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