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22 February 2024, 12:03 PM | #181 | |
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22 February 2024, 04:59 PM | #182 |
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Agreed. That 15500 for example is one of the best prices I’ve seen outside of Moda/dealer chats but still isn’t moving. Makes you wonder what the true market clearing price is
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
23 February 2024, 02:53 AM | #183 | |
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And European Watch has new sold and pending pieces every day too. Their turn around on Patek is incredible, even at their high prices |
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23 February 2024, 05:30 AM | #184 | |
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23 February 2024, 07:14 AM | #185 | |
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Simply ring round all the Greys and ask what they will offer for your watches, and repeat monthly. |
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23 February 2024, 08:02 AM | #186 |
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Exactly. AP on particular is taking a bath.
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
23 February 2024, 12:14 PM | #187 |
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Secondary market will bottom out when people stop buying from them.
I personally don't care about the resale price as I am not going to flip the watches I purchase from the AD/boutique. |
23 February 2024, 07:07 PM | #188 |
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At the earliest the secondary market will (have) bottom(ed) out when mint 15202ST go below their last retail.
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24 February 2024, 12:21 AM | #189 |
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Yeah, there is a seller here on TRF that seemingly 'sells' an identical watch for their asking price RIGHT before listing a watch! And it is never one that has been listed here a while, they just list a new 'sold' listing right next to it.
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24 February 2024, 08:59 AM | #190 |
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So if I'm reading you all correctly...
You think the decline will be over when we are back to 2014 where you could walk in and get a Sub or Royal Oak at the AD no problem, and the smart people were getting discounts or buying pre owned at 30% off? |
24 February 2024, 10:15 AM | #191 |
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My guess is a return to 2018 levels. The COVID free money idiocy is hopefully gone forever.
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24 February 2024, 12:48 PM | #192 |
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It will be further falling over the next 6 months I predict
1. Interest (bonds etc) is actually attractive for a change, so the opportunity cost is higher than free money with no yield outside of uncertain stock markets 2. Buyers craze has waned and now the herd moves on to the "let's wait" mode because they've seen prices fall already - never underestimate momentum 3. Housing market is frozen - prices are still high but new mortgages are super expensive 4. More attractive "other ventures" (i.e. travel is open, international / air travel is back to normal) 5. Crypto is making a comeback but not at the same crazy levels as before 6. Manufacturers got super greedy with prices over the past 3-4years. A RO at $18k is interesting, a RO at $27k 4 years later is a big much (same with Patek, Rolex etc)... not even discussing the more interesting pieces, PM pieces etc 7. AD shenanigans have been a turn-off to say the least. Loyalty swings both ways - after treating your existing customers like garbage, who is knocking down the door to buy the 34mm TT datejusts now? |
24 February 2024, 06:17 PM | #193 |
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Agree. Reversion to the historical mean/trendline, excluding COVID craziness
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
24 February 2024, 07:32 PM | #194 |
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The SS Daytona prices are raising. Slowly, but surely.
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24 February 2024, 09:52 PM | #195 | |
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Some of the formerly hottest watches such as 15202 or 5711 have a long way to go. My guess is another 30-50% after having already dropped 50% from the 2022 peak. I don't expect this to play out in the next 6 months but rather a slow bleeding for another 1.5 years minimum and possibly longer. |
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25 February 2024, 05:10 AM | #196 |
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Good points guys.
I think most of the decline has happened already, but I don't think we will see prices increase for a while |
25 February 2024, 10:07 AM | #197 | |
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I think where prices end up is the easier question. When they will actually stabilize is a bit difficult. But frankly I think we’ll be there by EOY.
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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25 February 2024, 03:22 PM | #198 |
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Market has bottomed. At least for the short term
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27 February 2024, 07:28 AM | #199 | |
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But I agree we aren't very far from normalization at this point. Most rolex models are trading for about retail, with most precious model and TT pieces at or below retail. The exception remains the daytona, pepsi, sprite etc. Most 43mm AP Offshores have corrected below retail, and the 42s are pretty much back to 2020 prices. The new ROs are at a reasonable premium nowadays. Almost all the Patek models (except Nautilus & Aquanaut) are at or well below retail. For example I just looking at the 5205g and it's 15K below retail. Folks with purchase history are getting offered brand new Aquanauts at retail by their ADs without even asking. Nautilus on bracelet is standing strong (but down significantly from ridiculous peak), and will be the last General to fall. |
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4 March 2024, 02:22 PM | #200 |
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What do you all think would be the watch to buy if available at your local Rolex AD? Thank you!
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4 March 2024, 02:24 PM | #201 |
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15 March 2024, 01:51 AM | #202 |
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And there is one thread left
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15 March 2024, 02:31 AM | #203 |
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15 March 2024, 11:52 PM | #204 |
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16 March 2024, 01:03 PM | #205 |
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That one's still sitting there, pricing is way too high. Pieces cheaper than that have been getting bumped since February. One went for $26k today, full set minus the card.
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16 March 2024, 01:30 PM | #206 |
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Watch market bottomed out last Tuesday
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9 April 2024, 12:39 PM | #207 |
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All the BLROs are currently coming out of the woodwork on MODA as it's clear it's not being discontinued. Lots of auctions and price reductions from the current run-up nonsense. Laughable.
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18 April 2024, 06:09 AM | #208 |
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I'm a buyer when you can get a 228238 at or below retail
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18 April 2024, 09:38 AM | #209 |
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Full set minus white hang tag 116710 BLNR dated 2020 just sold on Moda for 10,600.
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18 April 2024, 12:54 PM | #210 |
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