Is there really a slowdown in Rolex secondary market?

[BillA]

With the exception of a few hard get pieces like the SS Daytona and Pepsi, was there ever really a shortage of watches at the AD? We walk into an AD and he tells us no watches for sale but has 15-20 Exhibition pieces he wont sell you. But wait, what if all those exhibition pieces at all AD’s were for sale? Where is the shortage now? So has Rolex and the AD created a false scarcity of watches? Additionally, some people walk into the AD and like magic a watch appears to be bought.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by BillA

With the exception of a few hard get pieces like the SS Daytona and Pepsi, was there ever really a shortage of watches at the AD? We walk into an AD and he tells us no watches for sale but has 15-20 Exhibition pieces he wont sell you. But wait, what if all those exhibition pieces at all AD’s were for sale? Where is the shortage now? So has Rolex and the AD created a false scarcity of watches? Additionally, some people walk into the AD and like magic a watch appears to be bought.

Yes and no. A shortage in terms of aggregate demand exceeding supply? Yes. That started even before the pandemic for most steel models.

But for the right type of client, there was and never will be a shortage of anything including a Daytona or Pepsi, not when Rolex produces 1.2M watches a year.

As far as the exhibition pieces, I guarantee if the AD wanted to actually sell those they would and then there would be nothing left to exhibit.

We don't need to complicate or overthink these things. The grey market is basically the "black market" we all learned about in Econ 1 that develops when demand exceeds supply. If a watch is going for over MSRP on the grey market, there's a shortage. If less, there's a surplus.

[Block506]

Originally Posted by Block506

There is def a slow down. Went to pick up a Hamilton from my AD and they had a rose gold 126301, White gold sub 126619LB, yellow gold sub 126618LB, and Explorer 36 two tone 124273 readily available.

I figured the subs were there because of the retail price tag but nonetheless they had inventory. Keep slowing lol

Swung by the only PP AD and largest Rolex AD in my area today. THey even had PP available. Like the other AD they to had the White gold sub 126619LB and the Sea- Dweller 126600 available. THe SD was tempting but 43MM is a lot of watch

[rianosha]

In the UK pepsis seem to have come down substantially - 142 currently on chrono24 and can now be had for sub £16k. Like for like only about £2k more than a batgirl now so I'm thinking now might finally be the time to buy one assuming I can find a nice mk1.

[SLWoodster]

yeah so hard to say what is in store for the AP secondary market. Last 5 years has been too crazy for that brand. But the brand is still flying.

In the US, their retail is now selling above what their market value was for those select models 5 years ago. They've eaten up their entire premium AND MORE.

But in the US, they are pretty much only boutique distributed, so that means their margins also increased. So couple a 50% increase in price with increase in margins... they have a long long way to fall.

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

What goes up, must come down.

ADs are likely seeing a slight downturn, along with PM models sitting in the window or in the safe for a bit longer than they would have a couple of years ago.

In my opinion, things are just returning back to the mean - the previous cycle where the watch market was going insane was an significant outlier, and a lot of watches went nuts that had no business doing so. They're returning back down to earth now, as demand is finding itself a new floor.

If you think the Rolex market is softening off, you should take a look at the Audemars Piguet market, it's in a complete shambles.

This is what happens when people with too much money decide that watches are brilliant investment vehicles instead of just enjoying them for what they are.

I do occasionally wonder how those guys are doing that paid $50,000+ for ceramic Daytonas and $30,000+ for SS GMT Masters... Fools and their money are swiftly parted, as they say.

[thegrandseirolexguy]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c29d8wk594lo


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[IGY]

Yes: China catches a cold; The rest of the world sneezes. The world has become far more interconnected during our lifetimes than it ever was. Whether it is pandemics or economic crises... all globally interconnected now.