New Daytona 126500 Appreciation Post and Comparison vs 116500

[Redsub71]

I'm reading, hearing, many enthusiasts, no one would exchange their 11 for the new 12. The case of the new one is larger lug to lug and the dials do not give emotions because they are copied from the previous ones, and the prices of new ones model on the gray market continue to fall

[Djoker48]

Originally Posted by Redsub71

I'm reading, hearing, many enthusiasts, no one would exchange their 11 for the new 12. The case of the new one is larger lug to lug and the dials do not give emotions because they are copied from the previous ones, and the prices of new ones model on the gray market continue to fall

Yeah….no. I had the old 116500ln in both black and white and I exchanged both for the 12 series. Have 5-6 collector friends that have done the same or exchanged one colour and couldn’t be more pleased with the decision. Would request you to not paintbrush broad based opinions.

[Greg.A]

Originally Posted by Djoker48

Yeah….no. I had the old 116500ln in both black and white and I exchanged both for the 12 series. Have 5-6 collector friends that have done the same or exchanged one colour and couldn’t be more pleased with the decision. Would request you to not paintbrush broad based opinions.

Yeah… same from what I heard..12 series just way better

[Bazil]

Shocked to see on chrono 24, let’s say for UK, the gap between 116 and 126 is closing ..
And as time goes on will the 116 overtake the 126 price wise ? I think it will, I think give it a couple of years and the demand will be for the 116 .. especially the PANDA version ..

[doc212121]

What a combo! These pics are fantastic, thanks for sharing!

[karleone]

Originally Posted by Bazil

Shocked to see on chrono 24, let’s say for UK, the gap between 116 and 126 is closing ..
And as time goes on will the 116 overtake the 126 price wise ? I think it will, I think give it a couple of years and the demand will be for the 116 .. especially the PANDA version ..

Interesting! Will see!

[karleone]

Originally Posted by doc212121

What a combo! These pics are fantastic, thanks for sharing!

Thank you so much appreciate it!!

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Bazil

Shocked to see on chrono 24, let’s say for UK, the gap between 116 and 126 is closing ..
And as time goes on will the 116 overtake the 126 price wise ? I think it will, I think give it a couple of years and the demand will be for the 116 .. especially the PANDA version ..

I don’t think it is that surprising due to two reasons:

1. For the average watch person, the two watches are basically the same. It is only in here that we discuss the minor details. So when presented with the choice more people will chose the 116, simply because it is cheaper, pressing the price up.

2. People speculate that the 116 will become collectible in the future, due to the 6/7 years production time.

With regard to point number 2, I am not sure that neither the 116 or 126 will become collectible in the future (depending on what happens with the 126). Rolex have become much more streamlined - we don’t really see floating dials, inverted 6’s, Patrizzi dials etc. anymore. As far as I know, the dial, bezels etc. was the same on the 116 from start to finish, so e.g. no talk about a 2016 version with a service dial, as all the dials was the same.

Further, Rolex watches today are produced in greater numbers, and people are much more likely to keep a complete set, due to the increased focus on this. Back in the 1990’s there were no need to keep box or papers after the warranty had ran out, because why would you? So going forward there will be a greater supply of full set watches.

Lastly, due to the ceramic and chromalight/super luminova together with laser welding etc. the watches won’t really age, so there will be a greater supply and the watches will be in better condition in general.

Of course the Daytona will always be popular and in demand but, in my opinion, it will be more like say the 5513 - a great and classic watch but not that hard to find.

[karleone]

I still love my black 116500! Feeling lucky to own both 116500 and 126500!

[928ktgold]

Originally Posted by Greg.A

Yeah… same from what I heard..12 series just way better

Same here my dad and I both exchanged our 116s for 126s black and white. My dad is not a big watch guy like us and even he said the upgrade was worth the price difference. Noticeable difference for him too

[archershot23]

Agreed. The 126 especially in black is way, way better than the 116 reference. It's worth the upgrade.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Bazil

Shocked to see on chrono 24, let’s say for UK, the gap between 116 and 126 is closing ..
And as time goes on will the 116 overtake the 126 price wise ? I think it will, I think give it a couple of years and the demand will be for the 116 .. especially the PANDA version ..

The 116 will overtake the 126. That is a near-certainty. The 126 is, visually, a minor change. Looks slightly busier, slightly chunkier. The 116 introduced the ceramic bezel and retained the asymmetrical lugs. It was also produced in unusually low volumes due to supply chain impacts post-2020. So unless the 126 has a shortened life, or some macro event shocks / depresses its production, the 116 will also have greater long term scarcity.

[928ktgold]

Originally Posted by Bazil

Shocked to see on chrono 24, let’s say for UK, the gap between 116 and 126 is closing ..
And as time goes on will the 116 overtake the 126 price wise ? I think it will, I think give it a couple of years and the demand will be for the 116 .. especially the PANDA version ..

I feel it will go the way of the supercase thick 116610 subs

[Neil McCauley]

Just to play devil's advocate, I have a couple of different thoughts:

Originally Posted by Deppe

1. For the average watch person, the two watches are basically the same. It is only in here that we discuss the minor details. So when presented with the choice more people will chose the 116, simply because it is cheaper, pressing the price up.

It could be argued that the average watch person may well be more likely to pick the 12 ref because it's the newer "latest" thing. We know this to be true in many other cases, however I would agree that a connoisseur would be more likely to want to collect the more "historic" model. For the average person though.... hmm I think that's more open-ended.

Originally Posted by Deppe

2. People speculate that the 116 will become collectible in the future, due to the 6/7 years production time.

6/7 years isn't a particularly short run time, it's fairly average for a modern Rolex. Additionally, is it possible for a modern Daytona to become more collectible than it already is?

Originally Posted by Deppe

Further, Rolex watches today are produced in greater numbers
So going forward there will be a greater supply of full set watches.

Just to touch on production numbers - let's be under no illusion here, yes, SS Daytona's are allegedly made in relatively low numbers, compared to, say, Datejusts or Submariners, but they are not rare watches. It has been discussed that Rolex are building new factories to help keep up with demand (in the future, based on growth); however, this will not mean there will be swathes of Rolex watches everywhere, and the markets/shelves are heaving with watches that are hard to get today. These production facilities will not be churning out a tonne more watches, they will be there to bring more manufacturing processes in-house, and to increase efficiencies, and maintain the same levels of quality. They could increase quantities by 10X tomorrow quite easily, but quality would suffer, and Rolex won't compromise on that.

Originally Posted by Deppe

Lastly, due to the ceramic and chromalight/super luminova together with laser welding etc. the watches won’t really age, so there will be a greater supply and the watches will be in better condition in general.

I don't see how these things will affect the 11 ref or the 12 ref, they are both made with the same materials and same build standards. A 116 will age in the same way a 126 will.

-

Just my 2p on this topic:
I don't actually think the 116500LN white dial or black dial is going to accelerate past the 126500LN, leaving it for dust and becoming a highly sought-after, uber-collectable reference (or at least, much more than it is now). In its 7-year run they were made in fairly significant numbers; we know this from not only the relatively large amount of collectors here on this very forum but elsewhere, on socials, etc, but also with around 1000 of them on the open market (in white and black, adjusted by 10% for dealers who don't actually have them).
I think a more likely scenario is that watches, or the luxury watch market specifically, will eventually see a positive uptick, in line with the wider economy and as trophy assets become more prominent in spenders minds once more. We're not going to be seeing a major spike like the post-COVID era, but, like every other market cycle before it for trophy assets, things will definitely get back on track - at least for certain pieces, of course.
As a result, I think we will rather see more of an alignment of 116 vs. 126 values. The model where the 116 accelerates past the 126 value-wise is flawed because it does not account for overall demand increasing. Demand at ADs will continue to increase for new pieces, and demand on the secondary should increase too eventually.

Lastly - by definition there's very little reason for 116's to go nuts. As mentioned before, they are not hard to find watches, there are a lot on the market, and for things to go particularly "more collectable", there would have to be a significantly fewer of these than there are now. Taking into account more vintage Daytonas, this is certainly the case, usually, they tend to command a higher premium due to their scarcity and to Deppe's point above, quality becomes a serious factor. So many of these 116 ref watches are tucked away, stickered, untouched for a rainy day (also by dealers, no less!) - meaning, there won't be a drought of unworn 116500LN's on the market, pretty much ever.

I know some don't like this topic, so, sorry for the waffle. I for one find it fun - I enjoy markets etc and fun learning about how people choose to make their decisions

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Just to play devil's advocate, I have a couple of different thoughts:


It could be argued that the average watch person may well be more likely to pick the 12 ref because it's the newer "latest" thing. We know this to be true in many other cases, however I would agree that a connoisseur would be more likely to want to collect the more "historic" model. For the average person though.... hmm I think that's more open-ended.

I agree that it is hard to say which bias that is the strongest - the recency bias or the money bias.

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

6/7 years isn't a particularly short run time, it's fairly average for a modern Rolex. Additionally, is it possible for a modern Daytona to become more collectible than it already is?

I think the production time is more in comparison to the 16520 that ran for 12 years, and the 116520 that ran for 16 years. With regard to whether a modern collectible Daytona will be collectible I think a distinction between in demand and collectible must be made - I don't think any of the 116 or 126 will be specially sought after by collectors in the future as they are produced in to large quantities and we don't have error dials, change to bezels etc. In fact, I don't think any modern Rolex will be specially sought after by collectors - they will always be popular and in demand yes, but there will also be a supply, holding prices to a respectable level in contrast to e.g. the 6263, but the way I read your post, this is also along the lines of your thinking.

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Just to touch on production numbers - let's be under no illusion here, yes, SS Daytona's are allegedly made in relatively low numbers, compared to, say, Datejusts or Submariners, but they are not rare watches. It has been discussed that Rolex are building new factories to help keep up with demand (in the future, based on growth); however, this will not mean there will be swathes of Rolex watches everywhere, and the markets/shelves are heaving with watches that are hard to get today. These production facilities will not be churning out a tonne more watches, they will be there to bring more manufacturing processes in-house, and to increase efficiencies, and maintain the same levels of quality. They could increase quantities by 10X tomorrow quite easily, but quality would suffer, and Rolex won't compromise on that.

I don't see how these things will affect the 11 ref or the 12 ref, they are both made with the same materials and same build standards. A 116 will age in the same way a 126 will.

Agreed. My comment on this was not ment as an 116 vs. 126 but instead it was to support that neither of these two refs will be specially collectible as there simply will be too many in too good condition available.
-

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Just my 2p on this topic:
I don't actually think the 116500LN white dial or black dial is going to accelerate past the 126500LN, leaving it for dust and becoming a highly sought-after, uber-collectable reference (or at least, much more than it is now). In its 7-year run they were made in fairly significant numbers; we know this from not only the relatively large amount of collectors here on this very forum but elsewhere, on socials, etc, but also with around 1000 of them on the open market (in white and black, adjusted by 10% for dealers who don't actually have them).
I think a more likely scenario is that watches, or the luxury watch market specifically, will eventually see a positive uptick, in line with the wider economy and as trophy assets become more prominent in spenders minds once more. We're not going to be seeing a major spike like the post-COVID era, but, like every other market cycle before it for trophy assets, things will definitely get back on track - at least for certain pieces, of course.
As a result, I think we will rather see more of an alignment of 116 vs. 126 values. The model where the 116 accelerates past the 126 value-wise is flawed because it does not account for overall demand increasing. Demand at ADs will continue to increase for new pieces, and demand on the secondary should increase too eventually.

Lastly - by definition there's very little reason for 116's to go nuts. As mentioned before, they are not hard to find watches, there are a lot on the market, and for things to go particularly "more collectable", there would have to be a significantly fewer of these than there are now. Taking into account more vintage Daytonas, this is certainly the case, usually, they tend to command a higher premium due to their scarcity and to Deppe's point above, quality becomes a serious factor. So many of these 116 ref watches are tucked away, stickered, untouched for a rainy day (also by dealers, no less!) - meaning, there won't be a drought of unworn 116500LN's on the market, pretty much ever.

I know some don't like this topic, so, sorry for the waffle. I for one find it fun - I enjoy markets etc and fun learning about how people choose to make their decisions

Again - totally agree

[gent]

Originally Posted by Deppe

However, I was thinking more in terms of the overall case shape, where the 126 is more slab-sided and have the “elephants”-feet.

Are you saying that the 126500 is the first stainless steel Daytona with "elephant feet"?

[gent]

Originally Posted by 928ktgold

Practically it’s a downgrade since it’s more prone to nicks.

Are stainless steel rings easily scratched? If anyone has actually bumped it, I'd like to see it.

[jonds]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

In its 7-year run they were made in fairly significant numbers;

Somewhere in that seven-year period, there was a year when "COVID" caused the plant to shut down and production was extremely low.

[karleone]

I don't really care which reference will be more valuable in the future. It's unfortunate that some people choose a watch based solely on its potential future value. Anyway, here are a few more pics of this beauty!

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by gent

Are you saying that the 126500 is the first stainless steel Daytona with "elephant feet"?

Yes, the 126 is the first stainless steel with this case design, where som of the PM models have used this design for a long time.

Regarding my slab-sided comment, I can understand that this is not the case, and the current 126 still have the same rounded case as the 116.

Originally Posted by gent

Are stainless steel rings easily scratched? If anyone has actually bumped it, I'd like to see it.

I think that too much are made of the stainless steel ring.

Yes, it will scratch more easily, but will you notice in a way so it detracts from the watch? I don't really think so, unless you sit with a loupe, but then you will probably find many more scratches at the whole thing is a stainless steel case.

Yes it will protect the ceramic bezel more, but there is not a general problem with ceramic bezels shattering without the ring, otherwise we would have heard about it by now, so in that way, I do not think that it was introduced with a practical purpose in mind.

Instead, I see the addition of the ring as more of a design choice, just as it was a design choice to go with the new case - the new is not inherently better and vice versa, it is more up to individual preference.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by jonds

Somewhere in that seven-year period, there was a year when "COVID" caused the plant to shut down and production was extremely low.

Yeh good point I'll give you that
wasn't shut down for a whole year though - I'd argue it barely scraped the surface when it came to Daytona numbers that left the factory that year in reality... perhaps down 10-15% on the year maybe as a guess.