The Next 3 Years of AI: Why Even Experts Are Terrified

[Maleg]

Originally Posted by Krash

Google just released VEO 3. It’s an AI film making tool. You feed it a script, and it will produce a movie for you. It’s more experimental right now than anything, but in two or three years (maybe less), it’s going get better and better. It will generate movies that rival anything that a Hollywood Studio can produce.


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How much computational power (and energy consumption) will it take to produce a theatrical quality movie?

TV and streaming are one thing, but the resolution to project a sharp image on a large commercial theater screen is another. A movie is 24 frames per second, so a 90 minute movie will have 129,600 individual high resolution images, plus the sound track. It's doable, but is it commercially feasible?

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Maleg

How much computational power (and energy consumption) will it take to produce a theatrical quality movie?

TV and streaming are one thing, but the resolution to project a sharp image on a large commercial theater screen is another. A movie is 24 frames per second, so a 90 minute movie will have 129,600 individual high resolution images, plus the sound track. It's doable, but is it commercially feasible?

It’s a good question. But you have to factor in hardware processing power into the equation. Chips are getting faster and faster every day. I don’t know the specs of future Nvidia chips, but I’d imagine they can deal with this.


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[Paul C]

Originally Posted by Krash

Google just released VEO 3. It’s an AI film making tool. You feed it a script, and it will produce a movie for you. It’s more experimental right now than anything, but in two or three years (maybe less), it’s going to get better and better. It will eventually generate movies that rival anything that a Hollywood Studio can produce.


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Interesting. Will it have sound as Sora (Open AI) makes short clips, but no sound?

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Paul C

Interesting. Will it have sound as Sora (Open AI) makes short clips, but no sound?

What is more important for me is the capabilities it will have 2 or 3 years from now rather than what it can do today. The expectations are that it will eventually produce full length feature films that rival Hollywood productions. This includes 4K quality display and DOLBY ATMOS sound.

I think as chips and HW get faster and faster, and the software becomes more and more advanced, the quality of its output will increase accordingly.

If you compare the very first iPhone to an iPhone of today, the improvement is extraordinary (putting it mildly). And that’s the type of evolution we’ll likely see with this product.


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[INC]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

my member name applies

[INC]

Artificial intelligence just shows how useless and unnecessary humanity is on Earth.

It is actually a crooked mirror that shows we are doing things that are completely unnecessary because even an idiot can do them, like a search engine called AI.

And the problem is that it is actually true. About two decades ago, development slowed down brutally and about ten years ago it stopped completely. We are currently just polishing "the same sh_t over there", but here is no real, meaningful development anymore. The AI makes nothing really new, just tell you:

YOU ARE NO LONGER NEEDED in the system.

You are the failure who still exists and causes problems in a perfect World.

Thank you for beeing participated in the human race.

You all lost...

[INC]

... or of course we can do it to realize:

We want to be human, not entities controlled by machines and software that make decisions for us.

Wake up neo :)

[L_S_SHOE]

Originally Posted by Krash

What is more important for me is the capabilities it will have 2 or 3 years from now rather than what it can do today. The expectations are that it will eventually produce full length feature films that rival Hollywood productions. This includes 4K quality display and DOLBY ATMOS sound.

I think as chips and HW get faster and faster, and the software becomes more and more advanced, the quality of its output will increase accordingly.

If you compare the very first iPhone to an iPhone of today, the improvement is extraordinary (putting it mildly). And that’s the type of evolution we’ll likely see with this product.


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I may be in the minority, and maybe it’s something that everybody will just get used to, but I find it deeply unsettling to watch pretend humans that look so much like real humans.

Anyway, I guess it’s further proof you can’t believe anything you don’t witness in the flesh.

Scary times.


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[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by INC

Artificial intelligence just shows how useless and unnecessary humanity is on Earth.

It is actually a crooked mirror that shows we are doing things that are completely unnecessary because even an idiot can do them, like a search engine called AI.

And the problem is that it is actually true. About two decades ago, development slowed down brutally and about ten years ago it stopped completely. We are currently just polishing "the same sh_t over there", but here is no real, meaningful development anymore. The AI makes nothing really new, just tell you:

YOU ARE NO LONGER NEEDED in the system.

You are the failure who still exists and causes problems in a perfect World.

Thank you for beeing participated in the human race.

You all lost...

In a couple of hours I will be taking my daughter on a college campus tour. As we discussed the fields of study in which she is interested, the inevitable reality that all of them are in short order replaceable by AI is a sobering thought given the $100k+ we will be “investing” over the next four years.

Journalism…. Already being rendered irrelevant by the internet and social media. AI will be the final nail in that coffin.

Interior design…. Projections are bleak here as well.

Marketing…. Like a previous poster mentioned, targeted algorithmic marketing are already disrupted this industry. My niece just changed fields from this into commercial video production after her last company announced another round of downsizing due to AI advances.

Law…. As a lawyer I can easily see where AI would replace 40-50 percent of what I used to do short of holding a client’s hand when they needed it. Contract drafting and review? One hour of attorney time versus 5 seconds of AI review? How do we get a client to pay us $350-$500 an hour if this is a choice. Judges??? Juries??? Sorry, but give me an AI rendered decision every single time.

Medicine…. The potential for differential diagnosis applications is HUGE. They may not even need a large percentage of doctors in the future.

So, what would you guys and gals advise a young person in career choices moving forward???

[L_S_SHOE]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

In a couple of hours I will be taking my daughter on a college campus tour. As we discussed the fields of study in which she is interested, the inevitable reality that all of them are in short order replaceable by AI is a sobering thought given the $100k+ we will be “investing” over the next four years.

Journalism…. Already being rendered irrelevant by the internet and social media. AI will be the final nail in that coffin.

Interior design…. Projections are bleak here as well.

Marketing…. Like a previous poster mentioned, targeted algorithmic marketing are already disrupted this industry. My niece just changed fields from this into commercial video production after her last company announced another round of downsizing due to AI advances.

Law…. As a lawyer I can easily see where AI would replace 40-50 percent of what I used to do short of holding a client’s hand when they needed it. Contract drafting and review? One hour of attorney time versus 5 seconds of AI review? How do we get a client to pay us $350-$500 an hour if this is a choice. Judges??? Juries??? Sorry, but give me an AI rendered decision every single time.

Medicine…. The potential for differential diagnosis applications is HUGE. They may not even need a large percentage of doctors in the future.

So, what would you guys and gals advise a young person in career choices moving forward???

The procedural medical specialties and most of the trades will be in business for a while. Similarly, anyone who does something with their hands. Some entrepreneurs will survive, until there’s no one with money left to buy their products. Of course, politicians will see to it that they keep their own jobs.

What’s about to happen to the film industry could be a good test case. They seem to be replaceable now, so you could watch how that plays out over the next couple of years.

A useful exercise may be to consider which industries are likely to be actively supported/protected/subsidized by government and future legislation. The unfortunate reality may be that none of us are needed and no job is safe.

[Paul C]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

In a couple of hours I will be taking my daughter on a college campus tour. As we discussed the fields of study in which she is interested, the inevitable reality that all of them are in short order replaceable by AI is a sobering thought given the $100k+ we will be “investing” over the next four years.

Journalism…. Already being rendered irrelevant by the internet and social media. AI will be the final nail in that coffin.

Interior design…. Projections are bleak here as well.

Marketing…. Like a previous poster mentioned, targeted algorithmic marketing are already disrupted this industry. My niece just changed fields from this into commercial video production after her last company announced another round of downsizing due to AI advances.

Law…. As a lawyer I can easily see where AI would replace 40-50 percent of what I used to do short of holding a client’s hand when they needed it. Contract drafting and review? One hour of attorney time versus 5 seconds of AI review? How do we get a client to pay us $350-$500 an hour if this is a choice. Judges??? Juries??? Sorry, but give me an AI rendered decision every single time.

Medicine…. The potential for differential diagnosis applications is HUGE. They may not even need a large percentage of doctors in the future.

So, what would you guys and gals advise a young person in career choices moving forward???

Any sort of 'hands-on' job should be safe e.g. plumber, electrician, carpentry, welding, Chef, jewelry making.

Robots (machines) can now build houses:

[Maleg]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

In a couple of hours I will be taking my daughter on a college campus tour. As we discussed the fields of study in which she is interested, the inevitable reality that all of them are in short order replaceable by AI is a sobering thought given the $100k+ we will be “investing” over the next four years.

Journalism…. Already being rendered irrelevant by the internet and social media. AI will be the final nail in that coffin.

Interior design…. Projections are bleak here as well.

Marketing…. Like a previous poster mentioned, targeted algorithmic marketing are already disrupted this industry. My niece just changed fields from this into commercial video production after her last company announced another round of downsizing due to AI advances.

Law…. As a lawyer I can easily see where AI would replace 40-50 percent of what I used to do short of holding a client’s hand when they needed it. Contract drafting and review? One hour of attorney time versus 5 seconds of AI review? How do we get a client to pay us $350-$500 an hour if this is a choice. Judges??? Juries??? Sorry, but give me an AI rendered decision every single time.

Medicine…. The potential for differential diagnosis applications is HUGE. They may not even need a large percentage of doctors in the future.

So, what would you guys and gals advise a young person in career choices moving forward???

I am advising my grandkids to go to trade school. While my profession (engineering) and other professional roles are ripe for the AI to pick, the machine will need electricians to maintain it for many years to come. Construction trades and industrial mechanical trades are paying better right out of trade school than most four year degrees and will continue to be well paying jobs for many years to come.

[codecow]

Health care is always a safe bet, if you have the right personality for it.

[Krash]

I wish I had a crystal ball.

But despite what I’ve said in some of my posts above, I still think you can’t go wrong with a computer science or an engineering degree. I just think these people will still be highly coveted one way or another.

Same with doctors, lawyers, physicists, nurses…

That said, I’ve always been an advocate of trade schools…


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[77T]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Law…. As a lawyer I can easily see where AI would replace 40-50 percent of what I used to do short of holding a client’s hand when they needed it. Contract drafting and review? One hour of attorney time versus 5 seconds of AI review? How do we get a client to pay us $350-$500 an hour if this is a choice. Judges??? Juries??? Sorry, but give me an AI rendered decision every single time.

Having sat for 2 days during a capital offense trial jury selection last month, I do understand your last point about that process. 99 + 1 (me) were pooled for voir dire - I really do understand your last point.
(It was part one of the divine comedy)

I agree that lawyers could be in an AI squeeze at the transactional end (contracts, estates, closings). But in my opinion the civil/criminal trial end will be ripe until your daughter's children are our age.

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

So, what would you guys and gals advise a young person in career choices moving forward???

Political Science - we will always have politicians until dystopians take power. More governance is likely to mean more representation in elected officials. It ebbs and flows but lawmakers never reduced their own roles. And they love to have staffers...and power brokers.

Funeral Directors - well, somebody has to perform the services for families. Grief counselors are an allied profession.

Career Coaches and Counselors - for the displaced redundant employees.

Skilled Crafts/Trades - not framers but the creative artisans. Handcrafted custom work and historic restoration at the upper end of the range. Also, infrastructure remediation roles to replace aging civil structures (highways, water control, power generation capacity).

First Responders - dangerous, but no robots will be able to replace the role within the foreseeable career span. Paramedic might be best choice until substance abuse ends (if that's possible).

Medical Specialist/Expertise Roles - a long pathway but even AI diagnostic sentience will still require skilled hands to perform the curative procedures/surgeries until CRISPR genomics eliminates disease.


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[Maleg]

Originally Posted by 77T

...


Political Science - we will always have politicians until dystopians take power. More governance is likely to mean more representation in elected officials. It ebbs and flows but lawmakers never reduced their own roles. And they love to have staffers...and power brokers.

Funeral Directors - well, somebody has to perform the services for families. Grief counselors are an allied profession.

Career Coaches and Counselors - for the displaced redundant employees.

Skilled Crafts/Trades - not framers but the creative artisans. Handcrafted custom work and historic restoration at the upper end of the range. Also, infrastructure remediation roles to replace aging civil structures (highways, water control, power generation capacity).

First Responders - dangerous, but no robots will be able to replace the role within the foreseeable career span. Paramedic might be best choice until substance abuse ends (if that's possible).

Medical Specialist/Expertise Roles - a long pathway but even AI diagnostic sentience will still require skilled hands to perform the curative procedures/surgeries until CRISPR genomics eliminates disease.


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Political science is already bots and statistical manipulation. AI will make all that easier.

Funeral directors - Soylent green, eh?

Trades - Skilled trades are hard to replace with robots. It will be a long time before the crafts are ruled by machines.

Career coaches - 100% AI. You don't need a human to coach an unemployed worker.

First responders - RoboCop is not that far off.

Medical - AI will do all the diagnostics and machines will do half the surgery. The patient prep and housekeeping will be harder for a machine.

[BraveBold]

AI currently does a better job of providing medical diagnostic support than it does rendering legal analysis and argumentation.

Here is ChatGPT’s analysis of the use cases. The critical difference is where the “value add” is… there is a larger value add gap for legal use (AI therefore a great productivity tool) than medical use (where AI may be a superior diagnostic tool).

Medical diagnostic AI is arguably more useful and impactful than legal AI today, particularly because of the structured nature of medicine and the real-world stakes involved. In healthcare, AI is effectively supporting diagnosis by analyzing vast datasets of symptoms, lab results, and imaging to map them to thousands of possible conditions—something even experienced physicians can struggle with. This is especially powerful given the high degree of specialization in medicine and the lack of access to specialists in many parts of the world. The existence of standardized diagnostic frameworks, like ICD-10 codes and clinical guidelines, also makes it easier for AI to be trained effectively. Moreover, medicine benefits from clear feedback loops—whether a treatment worked or a condition was correctly diagnosed—which help improve and validate AI systems. Many of these tools are already deployed in hospitals and clinics, supporting real decisions with measurable outcomes.

In contrast, legal AI is better at surface-level language tasks like summarizing documents, drafting contracts, or finding relevant precedent, but it struggles with deeper reasoning. Legal analysis often depends on specific factual contexts, creative argumentation, and subtle interpretations, which generative AI handles poorly. Unlike medicine, law lacks standardized frameworks for reasoning and clear outcomes to learn from. AI in legal work tends to operate in low-risk areas like document review, rather than directly influencing decisions. While it’s impressive in generating text that sounds persuasive, it’s not reliably correct or novel in its legal logic.

Overall, medical AI has a clearer path to real-world utility and deeper reasoning support, while legal AI is currently more of a productivity tool with limited capacity for handling complex, nuanced scenarios.

[BraveBold]

Training for specialized areas will increasingly be of reduced value. More value will be in overall strength of logical reasoning / the application of general intelligence. At least in the “professional” fields.

This argues for law school / philosophy / some of the more generalized scientific fields. Unfortunately (or fortunately) more will likely rest on innate abilities over training… in theory. In practice connections and who you will know will remain dominant.

I would also be wary of over-extrapolating the recent trends. People do an awful job of predicting how these sorts of trends play out over time.

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

In a couple of hours I will be taking my daughter on a college campus tour. As we discussed the fields of study in which she is interested, the inevitable reality that all of them are in short order replaceable by AI is a sobering thought given the $100k+ we will be “investing” over the next four years.

Journalism…. Already being rendered irrelevant by the internet and social media. AI will be the final nail in that coffin.

Interior design…. Projections are bleak here as well.

Marketing…. Like a previous poster mentioned, targeted algorithmic marketing are already disrupted this industry. My niece just changed fields from this into commercial video production after her last company announced another round of downsizing due to AI advances.

Law…. As a lawyer I can easily see where AI would replace 40-50 percent of what I used to do short of holding a client’s hand when they needed it. Contract drafting and review? One hour of attorney time versus 5 seconds of AI review? How do we get a client to pay us $350-$500 an hour if this is a choice. Judges??? Juries??? Sorry, but give me an AI rendered decision every single time.

Medicine…. The potential for differential diagnosis applications is HUGE. They may not even need a large percentage of doctors in the future.

So, what would you guys and gals advise a young person in career choices moving forward???

[BraveBold]

Anyone who works with the bleeding edge of gen AI today knows how limited it is. Also, how incredibly powerful it is.

That combination makes for dangerous complacency / reliance and a poor understanding of what it is capable of.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Maleg

Political science is already bots and statistical manipulation.

You may have missed my point on that bullet...

I meant we will never get rid of elected politicians via AI.


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[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Anyone who works with the bleeding edge of gen AI today knows how limited it is. Also, how incredibly powerful it is.

That combination makes for dangerous complacency / reliance and a poor understanding of what it is capable of.

Like any tech in its infancy, we'll be looking back at this in 40 years and laughing our arse off how primarive AI is today. Thankfully, we're no longer using acoustic couplers for 300 baud datarates.

But hot damn you know the Hayes 1200 baud modem rocked!!!

download (1).jpeg

[Krash]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Like any tech in its infancy, we'll be looking back at this in 40 years and laughing our arse off how primarive AI is today.

100% true and whether that ends up being a good thing or bad thing remains to be seen.

[Boothroyd]

Forbes magazine was just writing about this. Skills for 2030--that all-important first job out college.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernard...ills-for-2030/

[codecow]

That article on the Forbes site is awful.

[TC94]

Originally Posted by codecow

That article on the Forbes site is awful.

Most Forbes articles are awful. Written purely in general terms by “contributors” to generate clicks and ad impressions. That’s what happens when search engines prioritize ranking content from large sites over better written, more deeply researched articles on lesser known sites.

Lots of words but not much info. That has become a Forbes magazine specialty. Grabbing page views from other sites that have more thoughtful informative content.

AI could have written that article, and may have.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Maleg

How much computational power (and energy consumption) will it take to produce a theatrical quality movie?

TV and streaming are one thing, but the resolution to project a sharp image on a large commercial theater screen is another. A movie is 24 frames per second, so a 90 minute movie will have 129,600 individual high resolution images, plus the sound track. It's doable, but is it commercially feasible?

New Nvidia Blackwell chips—that will be widely availed this year—are 30% faster and consume 25% less power than current product offerings.

Deep dive into NVIDIA Blackwell Benchmarks — where does the 4x training and 30x inference… https://adrianco.medium.com/deep-div...e-0209f1971e71

We should expect future product offerings to be faster and faster and consume less power.


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[White Collar Boy]

Jason, I hope your daughter finds a degree (or dual degree?) she’s passionate about and enjoys college. An exciting time for her, I bet. IMHO, even non-vocational degrees are worth doing if approached with seriousness and enough passion to keep going through the tough parts. (Don’t worry about the government, or the dystopian singularity.)

[formuula23]

The World is changing, I really hope this doesn't happen, The emotional depth most scripts have, will AI be able to capture it ?

[White Collar Boy]

Originally Posted by formuula23

The World is changing, I really hope this doesn't happen, The emotional depth most scripts have, will AI be able to capture it ?

I don’t think so. Who would want to read AI-generated literary fiction?

[Andad]

The world is not changing it is being changed.

There are many trying to slow down the advancement of AI.

Let’s hope AI can’t track them down.