When do dealers typically get an idea of their allocation?

[srvrf]

I’m not sure this is known, but thought I’d ask TRF members who are better connected than I am. Because of my pay structure, this is the time of year when I receive a nice annual bonus. I try to allocate the funds to cover (1) expected expenses over the year while keeping some liquidity for emergencies, (2) investments, and (3) money that we can spend.

As we all know, with the secrecy about the waiting lists and list position, “the call” could come at any time or never. I feel somewhat “stuck” in that I don’t want to spend the money earmarked for watches on another watch in case the call comes. On the other hand, I was wondering if I don’t hear by say July, then the call isn’t coming that year and I can spend the money on another watch and just replenish the funds with the next bonus.


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[Fat_ninja]

I would start talking to them about next years allocations.

[Bearxj86]

They know pretty much every piece they are getting almost 9 months before.

[srvrf]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I would start talking to them about next years allocations.

I already know nothing more is happening for me in 2019. But I was wondering if they'd find out in January about what they'll get in 2020? Or will it be at SIHH/Basel in April? Because if it isn't happening that year, then I'm free to do something else with the money.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by srvrf

I already know nothing more is happening for me in 2019. But I was wondering if they'd find out in January about what they'll get in 2020? Or will it be at SIHH/Basel in April? Because if it isn't happening that year, then I'm free to do something else with the money.

my ADs told me they know in february

[srvrf]

Originally Posted by pam66

my ADs told me they know in february

Thanks. It gives me an idea of when to ask again without bugging them too much (maybe March) to have at least an idea.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by srvrf

Thanks. It gives me an idea of when to ask again without bugging them too much (maybe March) to have at least an idea.

but that info concerns european ADs, not sure about the US

[GreenLantern]

In the US, I'm told it's Feb *and* again during Basel (for new releases).

[GoingPlaces]

They do not know. To my understanding they know what they get when they open the box. They do not know 9 months in advance.


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[AlexWazo]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

They do not know. To my understanding they know what they get when they open the box. They do not know 9 months in advance.


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This isn’t true, I was on the phone with an SA yesterday regarding a piece I was looking for. They didn’t have it but she told me they’re receiving watch X in a few days if I was interested. Maybe it’s not 9 months but I don’t think they’re blind either.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

They do not know. To my understanding they know what they get when they open the box. They do not know 9 months in advance.


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They know what watches are coming... but sometimes the timing slips some.

Vs like Pepsi and daytonas effectively come every week.

[Mbbgysam]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

In the US, I'm told it's Feb *and* again during Basel (for new releases).

This is exactly what my US AD told me. Initial forecast at the beginning of the year that gets adjusted post-Basel to account for the newly released references.

[Bearxj86]

I have been told early in the year that I will get a watch in the same year three years in a row. I get it that same year. This has happened 3 times.

They know.

But maybe they don't want those that know to let others know since they want you not to know that they know. You know?

[Mr Naultilus]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I have been told early in the year that I will get a watch in the same year three years in a row. I get it that same year. This has happened 3 times.

They know.

But maybe they don't want those that know to let others know since they want you not to know that they know. You know?

Just to be clear do you know or are in the know ?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

Just to be clear do you know or are in the know ?

I’ve seen the allocation list lol so I know but I don’t know

[ap1]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I have been told early in the year that I will get a watch in the same year three years in a row. I get it that same year. This has happened 3 times.

They know.

But maybe they don't want those that know to let others know since they want you not to know that they know. You know?

I KNOW my waits have been too long

[Ichiran]

I think it's not so relevant knowing what your dealer receives, but rather, what your dealer can allocate to his/her customer provided it's a popular watch.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I think it's not so relevant knowing what your dealer receives, but rather, what your dealer can allocate to his/her customer provided it's a popular watch.

Nuances...

[PPcollector]

Hard to know exactly when allocation is until the call arrives...sometimes there may be a whale who decides to gift a special piece and the AD has no choice but to hold the piece for him/her. The ADs know what references they may be allocated but does not mean you will be on that allocation until you make that payment.

Rule of thumb on PP allocations: Make sure the AD has a way to reach you and have a CC ready to give them so your purchase is “locked in”... that way if someone walks into the AD while you were “allocated” the piece, it does not “disappear” before you go in to pick it up.

[zahain]

I deal with the owner at my AD and he's able to tell me if a watch is coming in a few days and that its in customs. Not sure if normal salespeople would know when a watch comes in as they just receive the package when it shows up at a store. Rolex is usually every 1-2 weeks shipments. Patek is next century

[SDDS]

Mid december, beginning of Jan 2020

[Sheldor]

My AD knows their allocations for the remainder of the year in Feb, but things can change a bit (3 of new nautilus potentially vs. 2 allocated at Basel) and also allocations across clients can change (someone who wanted either a 5711 or 5712 will choose one and then the other may be open to next on list). They like to know what we are interested in and can give me a general idea of timeline but open to some minor adjustments.

[Josh1000]

UK allocation meetings with Rhone are held in February. We are talking about a swiss manufacturer that knocks out 60 000 watches a year. They know exactly what they are manufacturing at exactly what time and for how long and can plan accordingly. It's a case of what the distributor allocates to the AD. The next one is after Baselworld when they submit their "wish list" and receive allications

[uniqueMR]

Typically few minutes prior to VVIPs walk in :)

[Josh1000]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I have been told early in the year that I will get a watch in the same year three years in a row. I get it that same year. This has happened 3 times.

They know.

But maybe they don't want those that know to let others know since they want you not to know that they know. You know?

The watch definately arrived...just wasnt allocated to you sadly

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Josh1000

The watch definately arrived...just wasnt allocated to you sadly

Can you please elaborate your perspective? For 3 years straight, I have asked for several watches in Q4 (after I received the watch I asked for the previous year). After a few conversations (and purchases of other watches) I am told in February that I will receive a certain watch this year (in this case it is a 5167a). They tell me they will let me know when MY watch arrives (the exact words "your watch" was used). I get the watch this year. How was the watch not allocated to me? Pretty puzzled ;/

Last year the same happened for a 5711 blue and they actually took a 10% deposit... so I guess it wasn't mine either?

I understand that with dealer games you are never 100% guaranteed a watch or allocation, but I think they do know what they will get and make an effort to allocate them to those that have been buying or patiently waiting. I am not a VVIP but I buy enough to be a VIP.

[Josh1000]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Can you please elaborate your perspective? For 3 years straight, I have asked for several watches in Q4 (after I received the watch I asked for the previous year). After a few conversations (and purchases of other watches) I am told in February that I will receive a certain watch this year (in this case it is a 5167a). They tell me they will let me know when MY watch arrives (the exact words "your watch" was used). I get the watch this year. How was the watch not allocated to me? Pretty puzzled ;/

Last year the same happened for a 5711 blue and they actually took a 10% deposit... so I guess it wasn't mine either?

I understand that with dealer games you are never 100% guaranteed a watch or allocation, but I think they do know what they will get and make an effort to allocate them to those that have been buying or patiently waiting. I am not a VVIP but I buy enough to be a VIP.

Ah possibly misread that they promised in a year and it was allocated in the next year..my bad...however they generally know to the month what watches are arriving and how many....so my AD would know he is getting 2 5711 and one 5712 in say october...they are able to.pitch for additional watches during the AD phone calls on a monthly basis

[Josh1000]

Just to add....watches allocated to me they have been able to track the deliver dates on the computer....in a few cases the dates did drag a month or so

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Josh1000

Ah possibly misread that they promised in a year and it was allocated in the next year..my bad...however they generally know to the month what watches are arriving and how many....so my AD would know he is getting 2 5711 and one 5712 in say october...they are able to.pitch for additional watches during the AD phone calls on a monthly basis

Ah gotcha.

I always do feel pressured to keep buying something though since its still pretty secretive.

[Calatrava r]

I think its known in February for the year with orders for the Basel releases being made at or after the fair. Special orders can be made at any time. Whether and when special orders will be filled is another matter.