Modern Grand Seikos long term resale value?

[IS2000]

Hello there,
I recently acquired a LE SBGH323 “Red Dragon” to have alongside my other two Grand Seikos. One of them being a Shunbun. The two watches are quite similar but different enough to have in the same collection. However I was having an idea of selling a Shunbun to fund my next purchase. I was offered around USD3600 for a mint 2 year-old watch which seems a bit low. Low enough that I was thinking to hold on to the watch.
My question is, I have a limited experience with GS watches and how will they hold value in long term if I decided to keep them for like the next 10 years. Prior to owning Grand Seikos, I usually only purchased Swiss watches. Most of them have appreciated in value overtime except a Rolex YM which seems to be selling at the same price when I bought it twenty years ago. My two Tag Heuers on the other hand lost half of their values overtime. So do you think that something like a Shunbun will still be worth $3-4K in like 5-10 years?

[exchange3294]

Grand Seiko in terms of quality is incredible value and I people are now just starting to realise this so it is getting harder to get a hold of certain models like the Shunbun or SBGA413, I was pretty much told this when I brought mine from Marina Bay Sans earlier this year.

As a brand I feel they have a lot of work to do in regards to marketing and defining their models, the massive amounts of limited releases is a bit crazy however the brand it’s self has only been around since 2017.

At the moment I’m onto my Grand Seiko’s because I love them however over time and as GS fixes some of their issues and people do start to realise the value proposition over their already increased price I do think demand will get a lot higher and they will potentially hold their value.

If recall correctly GS only produces something like 50k watches a year at their two studios compared to Rolex’s 800-1 million.


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[Dirt]

It will come down to the individual market as well.
The JDM experience is one thing and with AUS being part of Asia we also have a high brand awareness through the long history of Seiko.
We can see that GS is dipping their toe into a global audience which will increase awareness.
With GS taking things to the next level from 2017 as you note.
There are some hurdles in that alone. Especially at the price point, with a deeper appreciation for the brand being crucial to resale and i see that servicing to a consistently high standard being a key component of the ownership experience.

Not wishing to take things off on a tangent, but the inevitable Rolex yardstick was built up with very clever marketing and good products with good after sales/servicing. IMO, GS really needs to take it to that level with core references.
Take the 3180 re-interpretations for example.
They're a beautiful design but a little up and down in sizing. Having said that, the 3180 case style is potentially a classic.
Then GS jumps to the "Grammar of Design" style of case which is very distinctive in it's Japanese nature

GS needs to be able to settle on styles that are going to be iconic in the worldwide market.
They can do the limited edition thing with relatively low volume production but it can only take them so far. Omega fans are somewhat over the limited edition thing and a bit tired of it. Probably because they may not get what they want

But who am i to talk?
I have an SBGW253 which is numbered and love it even if the production numbers aren't sufficiently limited to influence resale desire at 1960. It is the perfect thing for the role that it plays in my collection.
That's another thing.
If the global economy keeps going the way it is.
It will affect peoples capacity to "collect".
How that plays out is anyone's guess, but in the interim i expect people will gravitate to less expensive brands and consolidate their collections with a more focussed view of what they want their collections to include.
Having said all that. There's always room for one more watch
Now onto my next one, which will likely be an SBGY011

[lanteanflux]

Originally Posted by exchange3294

Grand Seiko in terms of quality is incredible value and I people are now just starting to realise this so it is getting harder to get a hold of certain models like the Shunbun or SBGA413, I was pretty much told this when I brought mine from Marina Bay Sans earlier this year.

As a brand I feel they have a lot of work to do in regards to marketing and defining their models, the massive amounts of limited releases is a bit crazy however the brand it’s self has only been around since 2017.

At the moment I’m onto my Grand Seiko’s because I love them however over time and as GS fixes some of their issues and people do start to realise the value proposition over their already increased price I do think demand will get a lot higher and they will potentially hold their value.

If recall correctly GS only produces something like 50k watches a year at their two studios compared to Rolex’s 800-1 million.


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50k is a fk ton when they’re all the same watch, just with a different dial!

I think the only ones that will hold value are ones that weren’t available for genuine public sale like Sbga475 (50 pc for a store in Osaka, yes I have one haha) and the gs9club sbgy castle thing.

The rest just buy and enjoy.




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[metallic]

Buy what you like but don't expect them to hold their value. Too many new releases and they are all very similar. They are fantastic watches.

If you need value retention, stick to Rolex and Patek but even there you need to select carefully.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by metallic

Buy what you like but don't expect them to hold their value. Too many new releases and they are all very similar. They are fantastic watches.

If you need value retention, stick to Rolex and Patek but even there you need to select carefully.

Agreed 100%

[pandrew6l]

Watches are for you to wear and enjoy! If you want an investment, buy one of those SP500 ETFs, they have long term potentials .

[IS2000]

Actually I am deciding if I should let go of my Shunbun now to fund my next purchase, or keep it since I like the watch. It has already lost 40% off its’ retail value, so depreciation is expected. However I have no experience with GS long term value retention. If one day (let say in 5 to 10 years) I would like to sell the watch, will it still be worth like half of its original retail value? For example I bought a Panerai for $5k back in 2006. I could sell it for $3k two or three years later. Today the Panerai is still worth pretty much the same as in 2008. Same thing can’t be said with a Tag Heuer or a Ulysse Nardin where the values keep dropping with time.
For those who have followed price trend of something like the Snowflakes. Are the older examples still losing value over the time?

[thegrandseikoguy]

Originally Posted by exchange3294

Grand Seiko in terms of quality is incredible value and I people are now just starting to realise this so it is getting harder to get a hold of certain models like the Shunbun or SBGA413, I was pretty much told this when I brought mine from Marina Bay Sans earlier this year.

As a brand I feel they have a lot of work to do in regards to marketing and defining their models, the massive amounts of limited releases is a bit crazy however the brand it’s self has only been around since 2017.

The brand “it’s self” has been around since 1960.

[thegrandseikoguy]

Originally Posted by lanteanflux

50k is a fk ton when they’re all the same watch, just with a different dial!

Except that’s not the situation at all, is it.

[ap1]

Resale no good for GS, have to be keepers. Gap getting worse, their increased pricing but secondary stagnant

[Emery]

>GS
>resale value

Pick one.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by thegrandseikoguy

The brand “it’s self” has been around since 1960.

Quite right.
The brand has indeed only been around since 1960.
It's a small player that has a certain boutique appeal where as in comparison, Seiko has some universal appeal.
The brand is only young yet, but i see servicing as being key to underpinning the brand value.

[Bigfan0]

Just like Rolex🤣🤣🤣😎

[Bigfan0]

I think if you had one of there exclusive precious metals piece then yes . It for the goober and his comment about all being the same . 🤡 they have so many. Nice pieces unlike Rolex that that haven’t done nothing lately and are the the only brand that has the same stick every year .

[samson66]

Treat GS like you would Omega, IWC, Breitling, etc. - buy used whenever possible if you are concerned with resale. If you buy new you will get hammered if you decide to sell later. Buying used really helps in that regard. Honestly Rolex is one of the very few brands you can buy at retail and not have to worry about depreciation.

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[Fleetlord]

The big party is over for GS. They did it to themselves, but some of these brands just can't get out of their own way in terms of marketing. Burned super bright and burned out super fast.

They committed the mortal sin in luxury watches. Too many LE watches, too much distribution and big price increases...all too fast. See Panerai and Hublot. Hot brands at one time that took a huge dump because they lost focus and wanted to capitalize on "success" with MORE. People like it so do MORE!!!!!!!!!! Wrong strategy.

This all happened within the last few months. I noticed watch resellers inventory on GS dwindling. I tried to sell one just for giggles. NO OFFER. Hard Pass.

The Shunbun was a super hot watch when it came out. It was supposed to be a USA only model and it held value well. But now it is everywhere and diluted by more and more models that look similar and then focus is lost.

I'd say if you have a watch you want NOW and have an offer on the Shunbun and are really bored of it, move on from it now while you still can.

[thegrandseikoguy]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The big party is over for GS. They did it to themselves, but some of these brands just can't get out of their own way in terms of marketing. Burned super bright and burned out super fast.

They committed the mortal sin in luxury watches. Too many LE watches, too much distribution and big price increases...all too fast. See Panerai and Hublot. Hot brands at one time that took a huge dump because they lost focus and wanted to capitalize on "success" with MORE. People like it so do MORE!!!!!!!!!! Wrong strategy.

This all happened within the last few months. I noticed watch resellers inventory on GS dwindling. I tried to sell one just for giggles. NO OFFER. Hard Pass.

The Shunbun was a super hot watch when it came out. It was supposed to be a USA only model and it held value well. But now it is everywhere and diluted by more and more models that look similar and then focus is lost.

I'd say if you have a watch you want NOW and have an offer on the Shunbun and are really bored of it, move on from it now while you still can.

Quoted for posterity.

[Watchout4time]

Grand seiko watches are underrated, I prefer them to most Rolexes.

[Loevhagen]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The big party is over for GS. They did it to themselves, but some of these brands just can't get out of their own way in terms of marketing. Burned super bright and burned out super fast.

They committed the mortal sin in luxury watches. Too many LE watches, too much distribution and big price increases...all too fast. See Panerai and Hublot. Hot brands at one time that took a huge dump because they lost focus and wanted to capitalize on "success" with MORE. People like it so do MORE!!!!!!!!!! Wrong strategy.

This all happened within the last few months. I noticed watch resellers inventory on GS dwindling. I tried to sell one just for giggles. NO OFFER. Hard Pass.

The Shunbun was a super hot watch when it came out. It was supposed to be a USA only model and it held value well. But now it is everywhere and diluted by more and more models that look similar and then focus is lost.

I'd say if you have a watch you want NOW and have an offer on the Shunbun and are really bored of it, move on from it now while you still can.

Should be a a pinned post, as it is 100% GS truth.

[Kinnakeet]

I agree with Fleetlord. But I will say that I have resold off the top of my head maybe 5 GS and did well enough. Not Rolex like but better than Omega and Breitling. But I do mostly purchase the more desirable models, I have had no problem reselling them.

[Kinnakeet]

Originally Posted by Watchout4time

Grand seiko watches are underrated, I prefer them to most Rolexes.

I agree. My opinion is that my GS watches are superior to my Rolex watches.

[Enzo954]

I think it depends on the model. I just paid a tad over retail for one of GS's more desirable limited edition models. This was for a used watch in mint condition full kit. It will probably take a slight dip in value for the long term, but I wanted it bad and I tend to keep my watches.

[joli160]

In the long run they will drop much more especially now the market is becoming more soft.
GS makes stunning watches but doesn’t do proper marketing. They don’t build a strong brand image like Rolex or Patek and without that it doesn’t last.

[pandrew6l]

Other than a maybe at the NJ Seiko Service Center, I dont know of anyone who can Service a SD !

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by pandrew6l

Other than a maybe at the NJ Seiko Service Center, I dont know of anyone who can Service a SD !

Japan

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by pandrew6l

Other than a maybe at the NJ Seiko Service Center, I dont know of anyone who can Service a SD !

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Japan

If I was in California, I'd rather send my GS to Japan than NJ. It doesn't take much longer (maybe a day?), shouldn't cost much more to ship, and it'll probably be getting better service in its home country. I recently sent a GS to Japan from HK for service and turnaround was about 7 weeks. All the details about what was done to the watch during service was printed in English on the service paper.

[mgsooner]

We seem to be getting back to a time where "value retention" is one of the lesser considerations when buying a luxury watch. Some models will be better than others, sure. However outside of the most desirable references from Rolex, Patek, AP, etc - you'd better expect to take a hit. The "investment" days are long, long gone. How much of a hit you end up taking comes down to a variety of factors, including if that's something you care about at all. Because some don't have to care about that. I do. Which means basically anything outside of being offered a steel GMT or Daytona (i'll never be in the market for PP or AP) I am buying on the secondary market. There are some great deals to be had right now on really cool watches from a variety of brands.

That's a lot of words to simply say: things are almost back to normal.

[Kinnakeet]

Originally Posted by pandrew6l

Other than a maybe at the NJ Seiko Service Center, I dont know of anyone who can Service a SD !

My understanding is Japan only for spring drive.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

If I was in California, I'd rather send my GS to Japan than NJ. It doesn't take much longer (maybe a day?), shouldn't cost much more to ship, and it'll probably be getting better service in its home country. I recently sent a GS to Japan from HK for service and turnaround was about 7 weeks. All the details about what was done to the watch during service was printed in English on the service paper.

Agreed.