Is anyone really buying?

[tedo]

So I see across numerous websites hundreds of the Rolex model I want, both new and preowned, at 3x the retail price at the AD — where of course nothing is available.

But really — 3x the price, people are paying this? Or not so much given I see there are so many listings for sale? Are they simply just sitting there? I see the same listings week after week, same watch, no change in the price.

[Tim Plains]

New Pandas cost $17k CDN. One was listed up here for sale this past week for $75k. I don't know what the final price was but it sold within an hour. BLROs list for triple retail and they also usually sell quickly.

[khalifam]

Originally Posted by tedo

So I see across numerous websites hundreds of the Rolex model I want, both new and preowned, at 3x the retail price at the AD — where of course nothing is available.



But really — 3x the price, people are paying this? Or not so much given I see there are so many listings for sale? Are they simply just sitting there?

I thought this too but there were people on this forum who have confirmed they have gone to the grey market to buy these pieces... Will be good to hear from others...

Sent from my SM-F926B using Tapatalk

[Watchcollector123]

So,yes.

[JC316]

I think he is asking if any of our active forum members are buying. If they are willing to chime in.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Give or take yes. These grey prices are generally dictated by the buyers. Dealers generally price their goods according to the market. There are people out there with money to spend and they don’t have time to play AD games just to get let’s say a “tiffany” blue OP41. $35k usd or whatever the price is now is disposable to them. OR ppl buy these hot pieces as investments since they know they’ll either break even or profit. Putting $35k into a tiffany op41 is better than $35k just sitting in the bank.

[SDR581]

People are making a crap ton of money with crypto and are invest in hard assets. That's why they are pay 3x retail.

They didn't invest much to begin with and instead of taking out the money and paying taxes they buy a watch via crypto that holds its value and will go up.

[GRabens]

I think people are buying. Just following DavidSW's website, a see Rolex watches turnover on his website daily (i.e. on the new arrivals page watches last a day or few days max).

[zengineer]

A large group of the population had parents who would not shell out for a High School Class Ring. Some of those people grew up to have money. They will not be denied what they want at any price...so here we are.

It has an upper limit like all things. Personally, I think we are close to the top. Others think we aren't even half way there. Carry on folks, you lost me at $15k (US).

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by JC316

I think he is asking if any of our active forum members are buying. If they are willing to chime in.

Yes I buy. If I want the watch.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by SDR581

People are making a crap ton of money with crypto and are invest in hard assets. That's why they are pay 3x retail.

They didn't invest much to begin with and instead of taking out the money and paying taxes they buy a watch via crypto that holds its value and will go up.

Possibly…..if I had 100ks in Shi*coin I’d sell out and get Daytonas too…..that crap isn’t worth the invisible paper it’s printed on…….

[gerry100]

Does price negotiation occur?

[mpliskin]

I have bought many Rolex’s from grey marketers. Currently i own:
Rose gold GMT2
Daytona ceramic; black dial
Explorers 2; white dial
Date just, Wimbledon dial, two tone oyster and gold flutter bezel

I’m sure they wont be the last.

[EEpro]

Obviously yes. People are paying what they are willing to pay to get one.

[thenewrick]

Hundreds of hype references for sale and not moving quickly. But only takes a couple whale buyers to send prices up. It’s more of a throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks. And it sticks occasionally.

[dpt.calvin]

Originally Posted by tedo

So I see across numerous websites hundreds of the Rolex model I want, both new and preowned, at 3x the retail price at the AD — where of course nothing is available.

But really — 3x the price, people are paying this? Or not so much given I see there are so many listings for sale? Are they simply just sitting there? I see the same listings week after week, same watch, no change in the price.

Yes.

[BLNR Nairobi]

Originally Posted by tedo

So I see across numerous websites hundreds of the Rolex model I want, both new and preowned, at 3x the retail price at the AD — where of course nothing is available.

But really — 3x the price, people are paying this? Or not so much given I see there are so many listings for sale? Are they simply just sitting there? I see the same listings week after week, same watch, no change in the price.

There’s a lot of money sloshing through the system. To some, paying over $40,000 for a 116500LN Daytona is a really ridiculous thing to do! To others, it is spending ‘caffe latte money’ that enables them to acquire that reference immediately. A relatively small convenience tax that enables them to get the watch ‘now’ rather than be on some mythical waitList for years!

The watches are being sold. Rolex watches are relatively very affordable at MRSP, and even at 2-3x that price there are still enough people willing to pay such prices. Especially in the current market where there’s a lot of money chasing (any type of) assets.

[brucethemanlee]

Yes, perhaps not the majority of the people of TRF, but there are people buying

And just because the ad for the watch doesn't change doesn't mean the watch wasn't sold (and replaced with another same watch as long as date/year wasn't disclosed and same conditions (ie new)).

Greys can't sit on inventory forever, they like any other business needs to move product. Money tied up in inventory is a dead business.

[bluestreak]

Why would a rational merchant leave something at a price that doesn’t sell?

[Mystro]

Of course they are buying. Inventory is scarce and prices have only gone up.

[RoscoPico]

I would say people are. I've made a few offers of pieces and have always been turned down. So either dealers are paying very close to he list price and don't want to take a loss, or they know there are buyers right around list price

[1665fan]

Yes and this is the first market I’ve ever seen where something doesn’t sell they just raise the price…….usually it’s the other way around…….

[mulberry083]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Yes and this is the first market I’ve ever seen where something doesn’t sell they just raise the price…….usually it’s the other way around…….

I think this is to appeal to the watch “investors” - they see the price climbing and want to purchase ahead of further increases before being left behind.

[dpt.calvin]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Why would a rational merchant leave something at a price that doesn’t sell?

To be fair, there’s nothing rational about this hobby lol

[tymonster]

Rolex makes roughly one million watches a year across all model lines to supply the entire globe. Shave off the popular models and the numbers are a small proportion of that. Now look at the number of millionaires just in the top 15 countries (not even including billionaires or people even making over $500k a year) and consider maybe $30,000 for a BLRO or $50,000 for a Daytona as disposable income.

The US alone added 2,251,000 NEW millionaires between 2019-2020.

If just the millionaires in South Korea wanted a Daytona, good luck getting one.

The amount of money people have to spend on things they want now vs the amount of inventory available even if Rolex upped their production by 200% the supply would not meet the demand.

People are buying.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Yes and this is the first market I’ve ever seen where something doesn’t sell they just raise the price…….usually it’s the other way around…….

Agreed. It’s insane. Watch prices seems to be increasing $100 to $500 per week.

Not sure it will last though.

With the current economic situation, prices will stabilize and might even come down if March & April 2020 was an indicator.

Supply and demand will start to even out.

People will start to get hurt w/ investments (many have already began to feel pain). People getting hit w/ margin calls started. Crypto so far has not been the kryptonite to raising inflation like done w/ gold for decades. While 2023 hopefully will not be another 2008, late 2021 & 2022 so far sure feels like late 2006 & 2007 to me.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Agreed. It’s insane. Watch prices seems to be increasing $100 to $500 per week.

Not sure it will last though.

With the current economic situation, prices will stabilize and might even come down if March & April 2020 was an indicator.

Supply and demand will start to even out.

People will start to get hurt w/ investments (many have already began to feel pain). People getting hit w/ margin calls started. Crypto so far has not been the kryptonite to raising inflation like done w/ gold for decades. While 2023 hopefully will not be another 2008, late 2021 & 2022 so far sure feels like late 2006 & 2007 to me.

Sooo just a gentle reminder: watches took a quick plunge after the 2008 crisis- but they also quickly rebounded. A market crash might not exactly slow down the secondary market if the Federal Reserve ends up dropping rates again.

And that's why 2008 is such a poor comparison to what we're going through now. I think a far more appropriate economic situation to analyze would be the inflation rates in the late 70s and the Fed's subsequent response. Of course, watches didn't have the demand that they did in the late 70s like they have now- so the data isn't there to draw anything meaningful.

tl;dr - 2008 isn't exactly what we're going through now, and it's not easy to use macroeconomics to explain what'll happen to watch prices

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Why would a rational merchant leave something at a price that doesn’t sell?

I’ve actually seen many watches that don’t sell get re-listed for more! Literally the exact same watch. Matter of fact, I have tracked one back to like 8 months. The first listing from 8 months ago was 15,250…didn’t sell. Get’s re-listed at 16,250 doesn’t sell…get’s re-listed for 16,450 and now 16,850. I offered the seller 15,250 when it was 16,450 and his response was “my cost are going up, I’m actually going to re-list it for more”. Talk about creating FOMO.

[ROlesorusLEX]

People are buying. If they weren't, Rolex would have to cut production. Retailers don't sit on inventory longer that necessary.

This is like the time someone asked me why I don't watch the price gauge while pumping gas. I just pump, and hang it back up when it clicks off. To a ton of people, $70 for a tank is a big deal, but I bet to must of us on the forum, it's no problem.

Same for Rolex. There's a ton of people out there for whom the price of a Rolex, even at inflated prices, is a no-need-to-look purchase.

Sent from my KB2005 using Tapatalk

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Give or take yes. These grey prices are generally dictated by the buyers. Dealers generally price their goods according to the market. There are people out there with money to spend and they don’t have time to play AD games just to get let’s say a “tiffany” blue OP41. $35k usd or whatever the price is now is disposable to them. OR ppl buy these hot pieces as investments since they know they’ll either break even or profit. Putting $35k into a tiffany op41 is better than $35k just sitting in the bank.

Dealers price according to the market?! Dealers pass them back and forth amongst themselves in a low key collusion process that artificially hikes prices. Yes the market is tight, but don’t think joe dealer isn’t doing his role to maximize profit taking during this orgy period.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk