What do you think of the watch market status

[majidessa]

Intrest rates are down with more reductions by end of year, Gold is all time high, stocks and crypto currencies are doing well, do you think that the demand for watches in general and Rolex in particular will increase which will dirve up secondary market prices or the watch market has stabled and the bubble has burst ?

[BriansRolex]

Personally I think the watch market has been pretty stable and if anything we see a small uptick in pricing going into the holidays but who knows since nobody has a crystal ball

[Barada7]

Trending down for the majority of watches. Stable or up for the rarer birds: Daytona, Pepsi, Blue SkyD.

[Krash]

Let’s not lose sight of why interest rates were lowered. They were lowered to mitigate against a possible recession, which some say still might be in the cards. Plus, employment numbers aren’t great. Lots of companies are still laying people off.

That said, the watch market tends to track with the stock market, gold, and crypto. If they go up, and I think all of them will, then the watch market will likely go up as well. Nowadays, the watch market doesn’t seem to move with GDP or unemployment data. So I think there is potential for luxury watch demand to increase, not decrease.


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[Andad]

Originally Posted by Krash

Let’s not lose sight of why interest rates were lowered. They were lowered to mitigate against a possible recession, which some say still might be in the cards. Plus, employment numbers aren’t great. Lots of companies are still laying people off.

That said, the watch market tends to track with the stock market, gold, and crypto. If they go up, and I think all of them will, then the watch market will likely go up as well. Nowadays, the watch market doesn’t seem to move with GDP or unemployment data. So I think there is potential for luxury watch demand to increase, not decrease.


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Don’t interest rates usually fall early in a recession and then rise later as the economy recovers?

I’m not sure as you are the expert in this area?

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Andad

Don’t interest rates usually fall early in a recession and then rise later as the economy recovers?

I’m not sure as you are the expert in this area?

Many different factors determine when the Fed will raise or lower rates. The Fed can lower rates to mitigate an economic slowdown or to counter an economic slowdown that has already manifested itself.

But generally speaking, you're right. Interest rates fall in the early stages of a recession. They rise as the economy improves.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Krash

Let’s not lose sight of why interest rates were lowered. They were lowered to mitigate against a possible recession, which some say still might be in the cards. Plus, employment numbers aren’t great. Lots of companies are still laying people off.

That said, the watch market tends to track with the stock market, gold, and crypto. If they go up, and I think all of them will, then the watch market will likely go up as well. Nowadays, the watch market doesn’t seem to move with GDP or unemployment data. So I think there is potential for luxury watch demand to increase, not decrease.


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Personally, I think two things would need to happen to significantly increase Rolex availability in the United States...30% stock market fall or US unemployment poking up above 6% (if largely driven by white collar layoffs) or 8% if more general.

FWIW, I got allocated my SS Daytona when the markets were down 30% just before Covid lockdowns started.

If you think any of this is a possibility next year, now is a great time to save up funds you could allocate if AD's get a little desparate.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

Personally, I think two things would need to happen to significantly increase Rolex availability in the United States...30% stock market fall or US unemployment poking up above 6% (if largely driven by white collar layoffs) or 8% if more general.

FWIW, I got allocated my SS Daytona when the markets were down 30% just before Covid lockdowns started.

If you think any of this is a possibility next year, now is a great time to save up funds you could allocate if AD's get a little desparate.

we just had a 30% drop 2 years ago

[swils8610]

New will still be hard to get. Used prices may drop a little. I believe it’s the new normal


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[Mystro]

Watch market is stable but economy is crap and cost of living is up for the majority of people. Gas and fuel prices are up with winter coming. I think purchases for luxury items is down for the aspirational buyer.

[GB-man]

My friend pointed out to me a year ago or more that the reason the watch market never came back was because Chinese equities never came back. That’s half the buyers right there. I believe it.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by GB-man

My friend pointed out to me a year ago or more that the reason the watch market never came back was because Chinese equities never came back. That’s half the buyers right there. I believe it.

they don't call it the tank seng for no reason, their market is trash and has been forever lol

[4reRlxGuy]

Originally Posted by GB-man

My friend pointed out to me a year ago or more that the reason the watch market never came back was because Chinese equities never came back. That’s half the buyers right there. I believe it.

The local Ferrari dealer has new cars that were ordered but not picked up at the last event they hosted (those cars are on their website).

All the cars that were available were ordered by "Chinese buyers" whose financial situation has changed therefore unwilling to be picked up.

[4reRlxGuy]

Apologize - the cars are not on the website. They don't want people to realize demand has weakened.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

Apologize - the cars are not on the website. They don't want people to realize demand has weakened.

Even easier to hide Rolexes in the vault. I fully expect this to happen if the market weakens significantly.

[SLWoodster]

I don't think the price of investment grade Rolexes like this is ever coming down. All of ours, most likely.

In cars, Mercedes 300SL prices, never coming down. Your G wagon, yup, coming down.

[TheVision]

Job wise (here in CA) ain't good. I have a semi consultant-management role and we just let go of like 200 people. And I've known some of them for over 10 years. I couldn't even face them cos they know I'm with "management".

Tech industry in bay area are doing the same. The untold truth for tech is AI is taking over.

And regardless of Youtbuers making clickbat videos, reality is AD's are still slammed as before. Still huge waitlists for sub, daytona, gmt, etc. No one is getting a watch without purchase history. GMT/daytona are still fetching prem in grey market.

The only difference is models like datejust/explorer are now back to post covid demand....zero resale value in grey market so flippers have abandoned these for now. And hence, they are also easier to obtain at ADs. In Vegas, 2 ADs have these for walk-ins weekly. Also in Hawaii ..a friend of mine walked in Maui AD and walked out with a datejust 41 (smooth on oyster).

But all other models are still super hard to get at ADs. At this point, I don't think its Rolex...its the AD's that are now controlling the market and creating this "fake" demand.