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ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
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#1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?
Summer is usually the weakest month, do you think we finally see the bottom in the summer of 2024? What would take for the market to capitulate?
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#2 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: El Cerrito, CA
Posts: 2,189
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I think most model already bottomed with a few notable exceptions including the Pepsi. The Daytona, the new one, won't go down for a few years, but the last gen one is probably close if not at the bottom imho.
Sent from my SM-S918U1 using Tapatalk |
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#3 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2022
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 586
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As more and more people post less and less photos on Facebook, Instagram, etc... or quitting social media completely, the need to "flex" a luxury lifestyle has drastically diminished.
Since the need is diminishing, the market is adgusting. |
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#4 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 75,977
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I didn’t know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.
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#5 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: London
Posts: 609
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Erm is this a genuine question
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#6 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,983
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In the near term, I think used market prices have bottomed out. If those prices were to soften further, demand will soften cascading everything further down. If there is a real cost to accumulating Rolex watches by their depreciation, people will want to own less of them. Life was a lot simpler where all Rolex lost value on the used markets. Demand for new was a lot more stable and manageable.
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#7 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,983
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Before the hype and demand when nuts, the summer months were traditionally a slow period in watch sales. In the past few years there hasn’t been a slow period for the hot brands and models.
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#8 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: USA
Posts: 1,521
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Model dependent, imo. I think the more "recent" (2000s era) 5 digits have some more room to fall. There were too many people that purchased these during the boom years because they couldn't obtain/afford the 6 digits they really wanted OR thinking they were investment pieces that would only keep going up. As some of these people start getting the call for a 6 digit or the 6 digit comes down to a price they can afford, they will keep dumping the 5 digits, along with those people that realize it's not an investment.
There's also just a ton of them on the market, not exactly rare watches. IMO a 16570 Polar should settle down into the 6k range, the black around 5k (mint with papers). 16610 should probably be in the 7-8k range, and the 16710 should come down to 8-9k. I think that would be about the bottom range for these watches. |
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#9 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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#10 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2024
Location: USA
Posts: 32
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I believe the labor market will continue to soften. Several layoff were announced this week and I believe more are to come. Most F500 are reporting earnings in the next few weeks. The results for those that already reported have been mixed so far which could signal trouble ahead.
I don't believe the price correction will be huge tho, for that to happen Rolex needs to overflow the market with subs, gmt, etc. But heck, what do I know :D |
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#11 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: sweden
Posts: 125
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NASDAQ closed at all time high yesterday.
We are nowhere near a bottom, of anything. WoS guidance revision and a 36% drop in share prices yesterday should give you a hint on where things are going to go though... |
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#12 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: USA
Watch: All
Posts: 5,181
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It will drop the day people stop feeding it.
__________________
Rolex 228235 DD40 Olive, 126710BLRO, 116710BLNR, 116613LB, 116500LN White, 126610LN, 116500LN Black, 126610LV, 116610LV, 126334 Blue Diamond Breitling Navitimer 01, Cartier Santos Large |
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#13 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,988
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
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#14 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: SLC, Utah USA
Posts: 840
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I don't think we are close to the bottom. The labor market as already intimated is far from really posting what is going on. Seasonal labor and second jobs skewing whats out there. Layoffs are coming and maybe "they" will let us know we are probably in a recession. The bets that the Fed were going to lower short term rates in March are a little muddled last 2 weeks and that will tell a lot. The 10 yr is up over 4% again. So in all that gobblygook there is a lot going on. Yes many YouTubers are quitting after covid and the insta crowd so yes personally I see more mov't down. But thats just me and what i look at. Daily
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__________________
"What you do or do not do in life will determine what you do or not do in life..." me. |
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#15 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: NWA, USA
Watch: BLRO/Daytona/OP41s
Posts: 5,159
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When new watches are regularly available at the AD secondary prices will bottom out, either slightly above or below MSRP. This will vary by models, it’s already starting to happen for PM models.
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#16 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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#17 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2014
Real Name: John
Location: Cherry Hill, NJ
Watch: PAM 372
Posts: 489
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New watches, they still won’t put out from the top marquees. They’re still in a position to maintain artificial scarcity.
We just need all the greys to start dumping. They’re already restricting the models they’re buying. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#18 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: FL
Watch: OP41 Silver
Posts: 1,805
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I think watch market will be pretty stable for the foreseeable future with the economy being so strong in the US. As long as unemployment is low, stock market increases and there's confidence people will keep buying.
__________________
OP41 Silver, BLNR Jubilee, 70th Anniversary Sub, 16753 Clint Eastwood |
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#19 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: NY
Posts: 729
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Hard to predict bottom, but '24 should see more softening
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#20 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2022
Location: Canada
Watch: TMTL
Posts: 292
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Objectively, the luxury market should see another 50% correction over the next two years.
If war breaks out in Taiwan, expect a 75% haircut. |
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#21 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Real Name: David
Location: Socal
Watch: Patek 3970
Posts: 308
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It should be getting close (baring something international happens where it could get worse).
I got a "call" from my AD. Arrived early and the previous client was finishing up who walked away from 3 datejusts (one was a mint dial). There was a JC and both steel date and ND sub available. I passed on all 3 since this dealer will only allocate 1 steel sports model per year. Things are changing. My grey dealer told me most PM models execpt for platinum and some oysterflex Daytonas can be had for list or below (no tax) |
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#22 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2023
Real Name: Nadeem
Location: Chicago
Watch: GMT BLNR
Posts: 956
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Quote:
Subs 3-4 month wait and the rest still exclusive with 1+ year waits. |
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#23 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2023
Real Name: Nadeem
Location: Chicago
Watch: GMT BLNR
Posts: 956
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Quote:
Do we have any historical data on this being the case? |
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#24 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2013
Real Name: Nick
Location: Las Vegas
Watch: 1601
Posts: 10,559
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?
When TRF and other Rolex fora on other platforms become ghost towns.
At which point the “to the moon” crown would have moved on to the flavor of the week, while the “bottom out” crowd finally get to say I told you so… to an empty room. |
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#25 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: USA
Posts: 525
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Big election years like 2024 provide false economic equivalency ie cutting interest rates 3x. Bond markets, t-bonds rule the world, not NASDAQ.
The truth shall be revealed in 2025. |
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#26 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: 126610LV / BLNR
Posts: 624
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were never going to see under MSRP for most rolex models. Prices are pretty much Ed bottom.
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#27 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,235
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If this were true, it would be a harbinger of far worse issues for us to fret over than watch prices.
__________________
Jason 116610 LN DateJust Pelagos FXD |
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#28 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2022
Location: USA
Posts: 393
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I think by Jan 2025. People are back to traveling and living life instead of constant social media during the pandemic.
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#29 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: London
Posts: 609
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#30 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2022
Real Name: Bazil Brush
Location: Star Gazing
Watch: Any Daytona
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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