Can Innovation Outshine Heritage? Untouchable? Decisions?

[Champagnepapi]

Hi Enthusiasts,

With all the recent news, controversies and interviews about the watch industry, it got me wondering—are the “Holy Trinity” brands like PP, AP, and others like Rolex truly able to hold their top spots because of their history, heritage, and the remarkable pieces they produce? I’ve intentionally left RM out of this, as that feels more hype-driven garbage (no offense ).

Could these legacy brands ever lose their place in terms of demand and desirability due to poor decisions or shifts in management, especially if they continue to alienate collectors? We’ve seen a few once-popular companies fall off due to management missteps.

Do you think there could be a scenario where, ten years from now, these “untouchable” brands today are replaced by others that are making real efforts to innovate? For instance—Rexhep Rexhepi (Akrivia), MB&F, FPJ, H Moser, R Gauthier, RD, ALS, Urwerk, Gronefeld, Greubel Forsey, Simon Brette, De Bethune, Berneron, Bernard Lederer, or even entirely new brands led by artisans from within the industry.

Is it possible that a brand’s reputation alone can keep it untouchable, or do you think innovation or poor leadership choices could eventually shift the status quo?


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[metallic]

Just as a general response, unrelated to watch companies, all companies are probably doomed to eventual failure. Even the behemoth Apples, Microsofts, and Amazons of today. Technology, newer ideas, varying trends all eventually doom most companies over the long haul. It is all part of normal business.

Watch companies and luxury goods companies are more likely to stand the test of time. They are typically not greatly affected by technology because they are not technological products for the most part. Look at Vacheron Constantin from the 1700's. Though it has changed hands over time, it still does exist. In short, luxury goods companies can hold up over time, but they can also make major errors and lose their customer following. Patek is not immune to losing its fanbase.

[huncho]

chatgpt going crazy in this thread

[TeddyBallGame]

I think another variable in this question is a brand’s production level and ability to scale. For one of these independents to overtake the PP, AP and Rolex’s of the world, it would hinge on their ability to market to the general public and produce enough inventory so their watches would be generally available worldwide.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by TeddyBallGame

I think another variable in this question is a brand’s production level and ability to scale. For one of these independents to overtake the PP, AP and Rolex’s of the world, it would hinge on their ability to market to the general public and produce enough inventory so their watches would be generally available worldwide.

True… but you got powerful rich people with endless resources like arnault taking interest and even doing collabs with independents like Rexhep Rexhepi.
Got Chanel investing in FP Journe…
They could perhaps potentially have in the future the backing and ability to scale up production if they wanted to


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[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

Hi Enthusiasts,

With all the recent news, controversies and interviews about the watch industry, it got me wondering—are the “Holy Trinity” brands like PP, AP, and others like Rolex truly able to hold their top spots because of their history, heritage, and the remarkable pieces they produce? I’ve intentionally left RM out of this, as that feels more hype-driven garbage (no offense ).

Could these legacy brands ever lose their place in terms of demand and desirability due to poor decisions or shifts in management, especially if they continue to alienate collectors? We’ve seen a few once-popular companies fall off due to management missteps.

Do you think there could be a scenario where, ten years from now, these “untouchable” brands today are replaced by others that are making real efforts to innovate? For instance—Rexhep Rexhepi (Akrivia), MB&F, FPJ, H Moser, R Gauthier, RD, ALS, Urwerk, Gronefeld, Greubel Forsey, Simon Brette, De Bethune, Berneron, Bernard Lederer, or even entirely new brands led by artisans from within the industry.

Is it possible that a brand’s reputation alone can keep it untouchable, or do you think innovation or poor leadership choices could eventually shift the status quo?


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I personally think that whilst noone and certainly no company is "infallable" brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe are pretty much close to that state. They are similar to other brands like Hermes, Porsche, Ferrari for example and there is too much at stake to enable them to fail.

The brands you mentioned such as Rexhep Rexhepi (Akrivia), MB&F, FPJ, H Moser, R Gauthier, RD, ALS, Urwerk, Gronefeld etc are all excellent watches but will never reach the level of Patek, firstly because it will take over 100 years to be considered the same level but the volume and access is just not there. Watches from the like of Rexhep are only accessible to the top 0.000001% of watch collectors and thus, will always be an incredibly high end and artisnal watch, but not a main stream brand to be considered a trinity.

With the release of the cubitus, some are saying thats the end of Patek but lets not forget every great company always has a few failed product releases (IF and its a big IF this cubitus is actually a failure, i think its too early to tell). Even the mighty Apple has had some poor product launches in its fairly young life (compared to Patek Philippe).

[subtona]

Holy trinity?????
I don’t believe VC has belonged here for decades.

[ChetBaker]

You spelled AP wrong! ��

[Bosscheto]

The vast majority of new collections care only about the resale value. Thierry Stern created the watch the market wants, not the watch the market pretends to want. The Cubitus will be in high demand, will sell for multiple in the beginning, and then will settle for 50-60k - but it for sure be on a waiting list and a higher resale value than msrp. These are the watches that the majority of the covid collectors go for and create the hype themselves. Ppl forget how much more hated the Aquanaut was, and for how much longer it was - now the entire collection is on a waiting list, and sells above retail. The SS Cubitus will be there for sure. So is the Tonda better looking, or the Moser? - maybe, but a lot less are ready to put their money where their mouth is - and Stern knows this - thats why he is so direct.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by chetbaker

you spelled ap wrong! ��

Trinity was in the 1960s.

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[yessir69]

Originally Posted by ChetBaker

You spelled AP wrong! ��

Oh boy...

[1William]

Like anything, no way to tell in 50-100 years. Right now the scale of companies like Rolex, Omega, Seiko, PP, AP is so large it is difficult to see others being able to scale up. There is no Trinity, marketing from the past that is no longer relevant today. Except to those who what to make it that way.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

They could perhaps potentially have in the future the backing and ability to scale up production if they wanted to.

100% agree, given time and training production can be increased. But pretty please let me take the other side of this. Since mechanical timepieces, mechanical wall clocks, mechanical desk clocks... these are 'luxury / fashion items'.

Is producing more of something really the goal?

What if you limit yearly production to 5000 or 500... or just 5(!) of each because this is the scale you feel is best to ensure a harmonious workspace for the craftsmen and artists, best quality, and even MORE important, excellent customer service. Remember, the more you produce over time, the scaling of service resources may increase.

Is producing more timepieces, or *too much* more currency per year, really the goal? Of course ...... more production = less rarity.

jmho

PS: What if you kept it 'small', very boutique, and without compromise. Like a Conneseur Series?

Enjoy your time.

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