Discontinue...

[Octagon Guy]

Does discontinuation of a certain reference really push up it's demand and price? Seems like 15202 didn't really rally. I'm speculating neither will 15407 if it really gets dropped from catalogue.

[Palex]

Originally Posted by Octagon Guy

Does discontinuation of a certain reference really push up it's demand and price? Seems like 15202 didn't really rally. I'm speculating neither will 15407 if it really gets dropped from catalogue.

With some watches, it takes time. When people discover hoe nice it was, and no longer available.

Overnight skyrocketing of prices of discontinued refs is usually shortlived.

[Gandor]

15202 didn't rally because it was replaced by the 16202 which is better in every single way. Depends on what happens with the 15407, if it's the same watch with better specs then the 15407 will stay the same or more likely decrease in value.

[NYG1121]

These things take time. As in years and sometimes decades. The 15202 (esp the 40th anniversary model) will always be the closest to the original because of the dial and the 2121 movement. While the 16202 certainly brings the movement up to par with modern times, it will never be 15202 which IMO is the most significant historical reference in the entire AP royal oak lineup (after the 5402 of course)

[supernova]

The 15202 was replaced by the 16202 so not “discontinued”. Same as when the Sub 16610 was replaced with the 126610, the 16610 didn’t sky rocket either.


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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Octagon Guy

Does discontinuation of a certain reference really push up it's demand and price? Seems like 15202 didn't really rally. I'm speculating neither will 15407 if it really gets dropped from catalogue.

It did at first. People were asking $175k for that for a minute.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Gandor

15202 didn't rally because it was replaced by the 16202 which is better in every single way. Depends on what happens with the 15407, if it's the same watch with better specs then the 15407 will stay the same or more likely decrease in value.

Don't expect much additional action in 15407ST prices - it's successor, unless AP screws up, will be impossible to get (in particular for those who couldn't get a 15407), so the grey market will just continue to work through the supply of 15407s.

[Octagon Guy]

Originally Posted by Gandor

15202 didn't rally because it was replaced by the 16202 which is better in every single way. Depends on what happens with the 15407, if it's the same watch with better specs then the 15407 will stay the same or more likely decrease in value.

Technicality wise, it's definitely better. Aesthetic wise, it still looks almost the same as the 15202. But personally, without the 2121 movement, it does makes a difference between the 2 for collectors.

Originally Posted by NYG1121

These things take time. As in years and sometimes decades. The 15202 (esp the 40th anniversary model) will always be the closest to the original because of the dial and the 2121 movement. While the 16202 certainly brings the movement up to par with modern times, it will never be 15202 which IMO is the most significant historical reference in the entire AP royal oak lineup (after the 5402 of course)

Totally agree. A 16202 will never be a 15202.

Originally Posted by supernova

The 15202 was replaced by the 16202 so not “discontinued”. Same as when the Sub 16610 was replaced with the 126610, the 16610 didn’t sky rocket either.


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I beg to differ. Many watches have successors but it's never the same as the one being replaced. Daytonas have many variants too over the years and some discontinued references, not all, continues to command a high premium.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by supernova

The 15202 was replaced by the 16202 so not “discontinued”. Same as when the Sub 16610 was replaced with the 126610, the 16610 didn’t sky rocket either.


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In addition, 15202 production started in 2012, with over a decade long run, the market was saturated with examples.

[cascavel]

When a watch is discontinued the brand and media promotion is discontinued along with it. Brand ambassadors are given the newest thing to wear to NBA games and the old model fades from memory. Given that the entire wrist watch craze is on a downhill slope, don't count on any pop from discontinuation.

[Lemarp]

I hope the 15407 falls because I'm pretty sure if I ever want to get one, it would have to be secondary.

[sj24k]

as with pretty much all marketed goods, this is a simple matter of supply and demand and will vary greatly from watch to watch.