Is there really a slowdown in Rolex secondary market?

[BillA]

I read in today’s WSJ that Cartier (Richemont) had a decline in sales due to lack of Chinese sales. Some of the other jewelry/watch companies showing a slowdown. I do notice a slight softening of Rolex professional models on the sales forum, but not huge. Is demand for Rolex watches softening and if so, why now?

[Tim Plains]

High interest rates and inflation, world returning to normal, happening to all markets.

[7enderbender]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sw...china-downturn

Not fully buying the downturn reports. Yes, I’ve seen some Rolex watches on Chrono24 have their asking prices reduced a bit. Still ridiculous though. And they are sitting there without being sold, so it remains to be seen I guess.

For new models my guess is that a majority will still go into the “developing world” and here in America and Europe it’ll remain difficult even to get basic models. I hope I’m wrong.

[GB-man]

Absolutely the watch market peaked Q4 2021. Chinese equities didn’t come back like US equities post Covid, interest rates mean people have better uses for spare cash and those that extend theirselves have less to spend. Most of all the illusion of guaranteed appreciation has been broken.

[1William]

Maybe for watches that are not as hot. But for the usual suspects, Daytona/BLRO etc. the market is still strong. Much of what is written is from the perspective of what occurred from the highs. Very little is written about the averages over the time horizon that gives us an extended view of the market.

[majidessa]

Rolex is the largest producer of luxury watches with more than 1.1 million watch per year. It is bound to happen for certain models within their line up however, SS Daytona, GMT, and Subs will always be less accessible in order for the brand to maintain hype and status.

When I was in Bareclona recently, many models were available for walk in customers like SS deep-sea, Sea Dweller and some precious metal watches like full gold Sub or lady watches. I was also able to grab Explorer I 40mm which was an exhibition model.

I expect things to soften but once US market data start to reflect more certainty and interst rates are reduced we might see an increased demand.

[metallic]

There is some slight correction but it may be temporary. Interest rates will be going down slowly and US stock markets are at record highs. We could see demand increase again but I’m no Nostradamus.

[Calatrava r]

I see a gradual return to normal which is most models returning to the cases. People only need so many watches and the collector market is probably more concentrated than people think and is also saturated with watches. Rolex will do fine as inventory becomes more available casual one-time buyers will return and buy their special one only occasion/milestone watches.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by BillA

Is demand for ____ softening and if so, why now?

Remember all that 'free' currency central banks allowed governments to just give away... that was the Sugar Rush. Cars, homes, timpeices, boats, RVs... we all danced and sang and partied on the free currency giveaways.

Well... no more free sugar (except for the Military industrial complex and banks who need their Student Loans paid ASAP to help their troubled balance sheets).

Now comes the hangover for everyone not getting free handouts.

PS: If you know someone in the auto repo industry, may i suggest you ask them.....

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by BillA

I read in today’s WSJ that Cartier (Richemont) had a decline in sales due to lack of Chinese sales. Some of the other jewelry/watch companies showing a slowdown. I do notice a slight softening of Rolex professional models on the sales forum, but not huge. Is demand for Rolex watches softening and if so, why now?

What goes up, must come down.

ADs are likely seeing a slight downturn, along with PM models sitting in the window or in the safe for a bit longer than they would have a couple of years ago.

In my opinion, things are just returning back to the mean - the previous cycle where the watch market was going insane was an significant outlier, and a lot of watches went nuts that had no business doing so. They're returning back down to earth now, as demand is finding itself a new floor.

If you think the Rolex market is softening off, you should take a look at the Audemars Piguet market, it's in a complete shambles.

This is what happens when people with too much money decide that watches are brilliant investment vehicles instead of just enjoying them for what they are.

I do occasionally wonder how those guys are doing that paid $50,000+ for ceramic Daytonas and $30,000+ for SS GMT Masters... Fools and their money are swiftly parted, as they say.

[Billyrolls]

Originally Posted by BillA

I read in today’s WSJ that Cartier (Richemont) had a decline in sales due to lack of Chinese sales. Some of the other jewelry/watch companies showing a slowdown. I do notice a slight softening of Rolex professional models on the sales forum, but not huge. Is demand for Rolex watches softening and if so, why now?

I read a similar article but its focus was more generally on culture and government. It suggested there is a broad feeling of ‘luxury shame,’ where China’s rich are shying away from flaunting their wealth amid economic jitters. Also add to this that Chinese government has begun to crackdown on “wealth flaunting," mainly targeting online influencers pushing conspicuous displays of wealth

[goldboy]

Pendulum swing of the economy due to rates and other QT factors.

Economy is broken though so well probably see drastic swings to both extremes in the next decade. It may be tightening now, but chances are we could see even more extreme inflation in the future which of course affects watch asset prices just like cars etc...

[Socal Runner]

I would say media companies and their funky articles absolutely blow it out of proportion. That being said the market is down, but it's hard to know exactly how much unless you are buying / selling everyday. The professional sought out models still carry a premium and I don't see that changing for the hot models.

Great time to buy though.

[brandrea]

Prices are definitely softer. Maybe Chewey is finished buying Rolexes.

[RiRi]

There is an interesting article on Revolution today about the Swatch Group:

https://revolutionwatch.com/swatch-group-business-news/

Also touches upon the subject of mid-tier vs. high-tier and the geographical dependency

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Socal Runner

I would say media companies and their funky articles absolutely blow it out of proportion. That being said the market is down, but it's hard to know exactly how much unless you are buying / selling everyday. The professional sought out models still carry a premium and I don't see that changing for the hot models.

Great time to buy though.

There is a lot of this, across mainstream media and watch related media. Seeing so much of it, each WatchPro email is "luxury watch market slumps again blah blah blah", the usual fearmongering.

What that comes down to, isn't that most people are looking to be able to grab a bargain, or perhaps hoping that the market will uptick, the reality is that people, sadly, love to see people down or taking a hit on something. It gets clicks, it gets emotions running, it gets attention.

[IGY]

Yes. There really is a slowdown in the Rolex secondary market. This mirrors a slow down in the Rolex primary (ie new) market too.

There are both regional factors that have caused a greater slowdown in some markets like China, but also global factors. The Chinese market has weaker than trend demand due to economic uncertainty, wage reductions and job insecurity. The Japanese market is also suffering reduced domestic expenditure due to currency weakness. But supply from these markets can easily be traded into other international markets. But this forces these other markets to absorb higher supply where demand might not be that deep.

Here in the UK for example, few Rolex models support used prices high enough to avoid making a loss once trading costs are taken into account. (Few obvious exceptions like steel Daytona and platinum Yachty). And this means that new Rolex are readily available. In the past three months I've been offered Batwoman, 40mm Steel or 40mm Gold Yachtys, OPs and DJs all by walking into stores and going through the sales chit chat with a friendly sales person. Problem is that I've not been looking for any of these watches. The sales guy however was looking for a buyer for these watches.

So Rolex watches are available to buy at RRP now. And it is not just the "classic" but also some of the "professional" watches too. There is plentiful supply on the used market too, just maybe some sellers have not quite come to terms that their inventory will not sell at the prices they've been marked up at.

Then you need to take an opinion of which way the economy will turn. Here is a clue: look at what is happening to tarrifs between BRICs and the USA / EU.

[ArtNouveau]

I believe most of the replies here are overthinking things. I doubt the market has changed much overall, different locations to different degrees. My own anecdotal evidence after speaking with two ADs last week is that business is still good. A “relationship” or wait is still needed for most models and demand outstrips supply for the most requested.
As far as reseller/used prices go they’re still more than I would pay, I wouldn’t consider used unless it was the same or less than retail.
For the record, my four Rolex models are all still worth more than they were when I bought them new from AD.

[996marty]

The market is soft and has been for a long time

[CarForHire]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfr...-report-finds/

In my opinion there is zero shot prices go back up like some have mentioned in this thread. Watches became “investments” to people and they got burned. It will never return to the highs. If people were buying watches just for collecting purposes the last few years, we still would have seen high prices but not to the extent.

The reason prices haven’t crashed even more is because people are still holding their inventory hanging on to sliver of hope. It will go down and down and down. I doubt to pre Covid prices but we have yet to see the bottom..

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I believe most of the replies here are overthinking things. I doubt the market has changed much overall, different locations to different degrees. My own anecdotal evidence after speaking with two ADs last week is that business is still good. A “relationship” or wait is still needed for most models and demand outstrips supply for the most requested.
As far as reseller/used prices go they’re still more than I would pay, I wouldn’t consider used unless it was the same or less than retail.
For the record, my four Rolex models are all still worth more than they were when I bought them new from AD.

Market has changed massively over the last 2 years boss. Ceramic Daytonas selling for $45-$50k at peak, and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Whole market is down a huge percentage.

AD's will always tell you business is good. Their side of things wont be that bad - difficult to obtain pieces will always be difficult to obtain. They're still worried about finding buyers for full yellow gold Skydwellers and yachtmasters, that's for damn sure.

If you're like me, who only tends to buy what they love, and buy at retail, and not really sell any watches, then it really won't matter to you one jot what the market is doing. It doesn't to me, anyway.

[BraveBold]

Of course it has slowed. Will be further slowing as labor market is impacted and the cycle shifts down another gear. The cycle was just extended due to excess savings. The no landing narrative is yet another “this time it’s different” narrative that will look laughable in hindsight.

[Mystro]

Let’s put it this way,…..the mid summer is always the slow down of the watch market regardless what the economy is doing. Not that I am in the market for a new watch but I am using my resources and sniffing around for any “deals” in the secondary market and not finding anything I wouldn’t have seen last year at the same price point this time of year.

If anything I would say the watch market has finally stabilized. No one is desperate, there isn’t any “fire sales” or liquidation by owners or the grey market. I am not just look at the Rolex brand either. Rolex AD’s still don’t even display extremely common and low desirable models in the display cases.
Even traditionally soft PM models like the LB Sub is still asking big money in the pre owned market.

If there is a slow down I have yet to see it translate to a tangible difference for the Rolex buyer…

[Seddyspaghetti]

Yes

[0nly5iv3Digits]

Yep

[CaptT]

Originally Posted by Mystro

If there is a slow down I have yet to see it translate to a tangible difference for the Rolex buyer…

The barometer (for me, at least) is the buying behavior of the trusted sellers here and other “grey market” dealers: are they buying used watches (to resell) and if so at what price. And the answer to that is no, they’re not rapidly buying up watches in the way that they were ~2+ years ago, and the limited watches they are buying they’re not paying nearly the price they had in the past.

That’s not to say that trusted sellers and grey market don’t have a place in this ecosystem, or add value. It’s just a reality of demand - things have changed significantly and prices/velocity is down.

[Henrimontgomery]

VC and ALS reached out to me recently for models I was interested.

I sent them flying, but they still came back. They are desperate and probably have terrible YoY growth.

[4reRlxGuy]

Originally Posted by BillA

I read in today’s WSJ that Cartier (Richemont) had a decline in sales due to lack of Chinese sales. Some of the other jewelry/watch companies showing a slowdown. I do notice a slight softening of Rolex professional models on the sales forum, but not huge. Is demand for Rolex watches softening and if so, why now?

Was at an event sponsored by the local ferrari dealership. They had 2 new F296s available that were ordered by individuals who have businesses in China that decided not to pick up their cars.

Those cars are are not listed on their website. Ferrari NA does not allow new cars to be listed online. They want maintain the appearance that demand exceeds supply. The games are no longer working like they used to.

[4reRlxGuy]

I would be offered 1 watch every 3-4 months last year. I've been offered a watch every week for the last 3 weeks (granted none were on my "list")

[Car32]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Let’s put it this way,…..the mid summer is always the slow down of the watch market regardless what the economy is doing. Not that I am in the market for a new watch but I am using my resources and sniffing around for any “deals” in the secondary market and not finding anything I wouldn’t have seen last year at the same price point this time of year.

If anything I would say the watch market has finally stabilized. No one is desperate, there isn’t any “fire sales” or liquidation by owners or the grey market. I am not just look at the Rolex brand either. Rolex AD’s still don’t even display extremely common and low desirable models in the display cases.
Even traditionally soft PM models like the LB Sub is still asking big money in the pre owned market.

If there is a slow down I have yet to see it translate to a tangible difference for the Rolex buyer…

The white gold 126619LB Sub is below MSRP and has been for awhile now.