Is interest in AP sinking?

[Fleetlord]

While I won’t say it’s a collapse like Grand Seiko, there seems to be a vibe that AP isn’t “cool” anymore…secondary market values are dropping severely…so much so that the new CEO may have to act to stop the freefall by cutting production.


Audemars Piguet's New CEO Could 'Stop Growth' to Focus on Desirability and Independence. The Big Four watchmaker will slow or even suspend production increases as new leader Ilaria Resta works to 'solidify the company.

I was at a prestigious independent dealer yesterday and they are expanding their preowned division. I asked what brands they were interested in….they said they are desperate for Rolex and Patek, will take Cartier and some less expensive brands like certain Omega and Breitling. They said they would not be strong buyers of AP…I kinda felt they were looking at it like Hublot…lol

I know the market is fickle, but I’m surprised at how fast things seem to have changed in regards to AP positioning in the secondary market…

[vliberman]

AP has narrow spectrum of offerings with spotty quality. That is not exactly a winning formula in ultra competitive luxury watch segment. It needs to significantly reduce supply and concentrate on addressing quality issues. In my case, AP is replacing a defective movement, which is a step in the right direction. Now, if replacement movement is no better than outgoing, that would be a problem.

Sports watch category is in general played out and it has nothing to offer in traditional watchmaking category. Maybe that is the way forward, but looking at values on preowned non sports APs, it will be a long road.

Hopefully AP finds itself as it is great and storied company.

[Fleetlord]

I don’t collect AP, so I wasn’t focused on the brand, but I’m surprised at how fast things seemingly turned negative

[ChipWong]

Maybe the average high end consumer doesnt want to get bullied into getting a code 1159 in order to a chance for a royal oak.

[MILGAUSS88]

Well they went all in on the Royal Oak.
I have heard 80% of there production is RO.

That would be 32'000. Makes it Submariner common for Nautilus price.

[huncho]

i think they went a little too crazy on the price increases. 15450 and 15500 were about 16.2-16.5k before the bubble started and the current respective models are now 28k. thats like a 75% increase in 5 years so naturally they priced out a lot of people

still surprised the grey market prices dropped so hard though but i guess even dropping to around msrp is still a lot considering the increases in msrp

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

Well they went all in on the Royal Oak.
I have heard 80% of there production is RO.

That would be 32'000. Makes it Submariner common for Nautilus price.

Total production is 51000. RO/ROC is less than 60%, so a bit less than your 32k. However, no single model has annual production of more than 1400. Not quite Sub level.

[doze]

AP wasn't that popular pre-covid (discount was available at boutiques, secondary market value was low). Now that the hype / craze / watch as investment are gone, combined with aggressive price hike with no additional value and some SA Rolex's level of arrogance, AP is partially responsible for it.
Maybe they can find more influencers /rappers that might help them hype the brand or Code up again...

[edo]

It is nonsense comparing it to Submariner in a light of One model company... there is more diversity in RO size wise x ROO models than in Oyster Rolex cases... and if I continue in that tone I can say there is about 700.000 same Rolex models made every year...

[APhound]

Ya I was just starting to think this isn’t cool anymore


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

While I won’t say it’s a collapse like Grand Seiko, there seems to be a vibe that AP isn’t “cool” anymore…secondary market values are dropping severely…so much so that the new CEO may have to act to stop the freefall by cutting production.


Audemars Piguet's New CEO Could 'Stop Growth' to Focus on Desirability and Independence. The Big Four watchmaker will slow or even suspend production increases as new leader Ilaria Resta works to 'solidify the company.

I was at a prestigious independent dealer yesterday and they are expanding their preowned division. I asked what brands they were interested in….they said they are desperate for Rolex and Patek, will take Cartier and some less expensive brands like certain Omega and Breitling. They said they would not be strong buyers of AP…I kinda felt they were looking at it like Hublot…lol

I know the market is fickle, but I’m surprised at how fast things seem to have changed in regards to AP positioning in the secondary market…

Hard to extrapolate that one dealer doesn't want AP that the entire demand for AP is severely waning. Prices are just coming back to normalcy, doesn't mean demand is dead. 5711 and 5712 prices have dropped drastically yet there is plenty of demand, much akin to the 15202/16202. I've been following the 15202bc very closely for three years now, waiting to pull the trigger, prices are still ~$35k higher than precovid - albeit considerably lower from the height of the market.

Personally I hope demand further declines then I can buy the pieces I want at better prices.

[Willyjo]

IMO - too many models/variations

The secondary market is still sinking. My grey dealer won’t buy them at all anymore.

They should cut drastically number of models


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Hard to extrapolate that one dealer doesn't want AP that the entire demand for AP is severely waning. Prices are just coming back to normalcy, doesn't mean demand is dead. 5711 and 5712 prices have dropped drastically yet there is plenty of demand, much akin to the 15202/16202. I've been following the 15202bc very closely for three years now, waiting to pull the trigger, prices are still ~$35k higher than precovid - albeit considerably lower from the height of the market.

Personally I hope demand further declines then I can buy the pieces I want at better prices.

The incoming CEO seems to have concerns about diminishing demand?

Enough so to scale back production and seems to state so.

https://www.businessoffashion.com/ar...-ilaria-resta/


Which, I think is the right move...

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The incoming CEO seems to have concerns about diminishing demand?

Enough so to scale back production and seems to state so.

https://www.businessoffashion.com/ar...-ilaria-resta/
.

"will slow or even suspend production increases" != scale back production.

For 2024 they held production at the same 51k as the year prior. Once the new factory in Le Brassus is online they could scale up production to ~70k - I presume they will consider that number carefully. But I doubt that for next year's 150th anniversary production will be lower than 2023/2024.

[hl0m4n]

i feel the same... was a die hard ap fan and wanting the ro chrono but things have slowly started to change and my opinion of ap has been questionable for many reasons.

• product: the more i look at ap, the more i see its really a royal oak company. there is a saying patek defines the nautilus whereas royal oak defines ap. i agree with stern on not being dependent on a single watch, and if the nautilus were to be discontinued today the company will still carry on. if ap were to discontinue all royal oak, they would not be able to survive on just 11.59.
• innovation: rumors of the new qp and double balance, i am sure they are waiting next year for the 150th of ap. from a complications standpoint, they are still leveraging the original jlc while patek has moved forward with movements such as the inline perpetual calendar.
• pricing: the price increases between the last 2 years is really biting ap now... i mean seriously a 43mm offshore on a rubber strap is $10k more than a ro? the grey market is definitely reflective of this.
• brand: all the collabs with hip hop and being heavily endorsed in music culture is diminishing the brand imo. why the need for so many collabs? i wish ap go back to their watchmaking routes and focus on "le brassus". i am literally fatigued of seeing all these special editions and collaborations.
• qc: the 4401 subdial issue is outrageous for a brand like ap and qc to forgive. i mean even after the supposed "spring fix" watches are still heading back for servicing for the same issue.
• timing: for a high horology brand, why does ap not disclose accuracy on their watches? even patek lists 1/+2 day. it seems the accuracy is far and wide based on forum reports from anything to 1/+2 to as far as 10+ day. the excuse of ap being crafted vs assembled does not justify as patek is crafted and they ensure some time of accuracy.

don't get me wrong, i sill am on the hunt for the roc but the more i watch ap i am starting to question moving on.

[Halothane]

IMO, AP got greedy with price increases and pushing Codes during the hype. Personally, I think the new leadership is a mess. Most of their effort is focused on celebrities and influencers (not unlike Francois) but the difference is they now treat the "regular" customer like crap. IMO, some (but of course not all), of their recent collapse is due to hubris.

[mickyd329]

Maybe we throw some numbers at this for context. This is from Watch Charts for the last 3 years. Most non Nautilus/Aquanaut models are all trading below MSRP. Nautilus/Aquanaut models are holding better than RO's, but the overall index doesn't show a massive gap in overall valuation.

[vwc228]

Originally Posted by ChipWong

Maybe the average high end consumer doesnt want to get bullied into getting a code 1159 in order to a chance for a royal oak.

The ironic thing is that I'm one of the relatively small number of people that actually WANTS a code but can't even get one from the AD :) Been on the list for more than 6 months before giving up and moving on. This would have been my first AP. Not sure how AP expects to grow/sustain their brand if new customers can't even get their most undesirable and entry level pieces!

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

Maybe we throw some numbers at this for context. This is from Watch Charts for the last 3 years. Most non Nautilus/Aquanaut models are all trading below MSRP. Nautilus/Aquanaut models are holding better than RO's, but the overall index doesn't show a massive gap in overall valuation.

AP offshore models are trading 30% below MSRP if u can get a bid.. code 11.59 is even worse. AP has no other models to compare… so RO is it.. and it is falling.. so gap in valuation in huge

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by vliberman

AP offshore models are trading 30% below MSRP if u can get a bid.. code 11.59 is even worse. AP has no other models to compare… so RO is it.. and it is falling.. so gap in valuation in huge

I guess you are entitled to your opinions and it's just that, opinions. I'll keep my opinions to myself for the sake of keeping subjectivity out of this conversation. I'm just putting up actual numbers for reference.

You want to call out specific models? I'll play. Just keep in mind, I love PP as much as I do AP.

5236P Grand Complication 27% below MSRP
5327G Grand Complication 39% below MSRP
5320G Grand Complication 33% below MSRP
5396R Annual Calendar 30% below MSRP
5205G Annual Calendar 30% below MSRP (I own this watch BTW)
5235R Regulator/Annual Calendar 33% below MSRP
5172G Chrono 30% below MSRP (arguably the most popular non grand comp chrono)
5524G Time Zone Pilots Watch 43% below MSRP.


Seriously, what are we talking about here?

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by vliberman

AP offshore models are trading 30% below MSRP if u can get a bid.. code 11.59 is even worse. AP has no other models to compare… so RO is it.. and it is falling.. so gap in valuation in huge

To your point about AP not having anything other than RO? I'll just do the most sought after RO models.

15407st Double Balance Openwork 77% above MSRP
15510st 3 Hander (on average between dial colors) 52% above MSRP
26240st Chrono (Green Dial) 62% above MSRP
16202st 3 Hander Jumbo 117% above MSRP
15416ce Double Balance Ceramic Openwork 137% above MSRP

Really, that gap is that huge? I'm not debating whether the secondary market value is diminishing or not for AP. It absolutely is, but it's across ALL brands and not just AP like you want it to seem.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by Halothane

IMO, AP got greedy with price increases and pushing Codes during the hype. Personally, I think the new leadership is a mess. Most of their effort is focused on celebrities and influencers (not unlike Francois) but the difference is they now treat the "regular" customer like crap. IMO, some (but of course not all), of their recent collapse is due to hubris.

I agree with you on the celebs and influencer part. I dislike this direction as well. I will disagree on the customer treatment part. Most PP AD's play the same game. I was at one very large national chain AD, where they wouldn't even sell you ANY PP without first purchasing their other brands, jewelry, or pre-owned pieces. It's not even a pay to play within the PP brand! How is that for customer treatment?

[ts3]

I am sure the interest in AP is sinking at this point just like the interest in most brands outside of maybe Cartier and some tiny independents. Given the focus of its limited product portfolio and increasingly high price points AP was always at risk of getting hit faster and harder once the recent hype was coming to an end.

[gregouille]

Originally Posted by huncho

i think they went a little too crazy on the price increases. 15450 and 15500 were about 16.2-16.5k before the bubble started and the current respective models are now 28k. thats like a 75% increase in 5 years so naturally they priced out a lot of people

still surprised the grey market prices dropped so hard though but i guess even dropping to around msrp is still a lot considering the increases in msrp

On my side I feel like price increase is one of the main reason why AP is in that spot now.
Personally I do love AP (still now), I have a strong relationship with the brand. I am also part of the people that like a lot CODE (I own one).

But looking at the retail prices now I don't want to buy anymore. Or at least not from retail.

Again I still do love what they are doing in so many levels. And still impress with the new releases BUT I am not looking at them as a buyer now. (I don't even qsk the prices anymore to my SA because I know it wjll be ridiculous)

I guess I am not anymore suited to be their client…

[justdate]

I think the RRP increases have been pretty brutal over the past 5 years. But I prefer that to them keeping the price artificially low and the constant supply and demand games being played for years more.

No doubt the company made an absolute tonne of money recently, and I still think they are in a far stronger position than they were before the whole thing blew up.

The peak hype is surely over and I expect things to continue to settle down. I would not be surprised to see royal oaks (standard models like the 15510) at RRP or 10% under within the next couple of years. That seems about right to me, buying one you should expect to lose maybe 20% out the door trading into a dealer, and still consider it a pretty damn good purchase.

Fundamentally the Royal Oak remains, in my eyes, one of the great design icons in the history of watchmaking and I don’t see that changing any time soon. Anyone fortunate enough to own one can be very proud of the timepiece on their wrist and admire the genius that is the design for many years to come. As a watch enthusiast, not an investor, I long for the days where the secondary market is a place to get a good deal, not a place to speculate, and a bit of calmness back in the watch world and around the mega hyped pieces would be brilliant.

I would also love it if scumbags could forget the Royal Oak design so I don’t feel anxious about making myself a target in capital cities.

Think I am starting to sound old, “was better in my day”!!

[Pfang56]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

I guess you are entitled to your opinions and it's just that, opinions. I'll keep my opinions to myself for the sake of keeping subjectivity out of this conversation. I'm just putting up actual numbers for reference.

You want to call out specific models? I'll play. Just keep in mind, I love PP as much as I do AP.

5236P Grand Complication 27% below MSRP
5327G Grand Complication 39% below MSRP
5320G Grand Complication 33% below MSRP
5396R Annual Calendar 30% below MSRP
5205G Annual Calendar 30% below MSRP (I own this watch BTW)
5235R Regulator/Annual Calendar 33% below MSRP
5172G Chrono 30% below MSRP (arguably the most popular non grand comp chrono)
5524G Time Zone Pilots Watch 43% below MSRP.


Seriously, what are we talking about here?

Facts...

It's actually a bit of a shock with the 5524G - a neat complication and a really special design. Starting to see the 6007 going down that path.

Might be time to pick one up!


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[vliberman]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

I guess you are entitled to your opinions and it's just that, opinions. I'll keep my opinions to myself for the sake of keeping subjectivity out of this conversation. I'm just putting up actual numbers for reference.

You want to call out specific models? I'll play. Just keep in mind, I love PP as much as I do AP.

5236P Grand Complication 27% below MSRP
5327G Grand Complication 39% below MSRP
5320G Grand Complication 33% below MSRP
5396R Annual Calendar 30% below MSRP
5205G Annual Calendar 30% below MSRP (I own this watch BTW)
5235R Regulator/Annual Calendar 33% below MSRP
5172G Chrono 30% below MSRP (arguably the most popular non grand comp chrono)
5524G Time Zone Pilots Watch 43% below MSRP.


Seriously, what are we talking about here?

All of the PP sports watches are at premium, a few of AP are. There is not one PP reference that is trading close to MSRP. Plenty of APs are significantly below MSRP.

I think your assessment of premium on AP is generous. 15202s are trading low 40s. I doubt 16202 go for $80k…

AP is not participating in non sports category so comparison is mute.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by vliberman

All of the PP sports watches are at premium, a few of AP are. There is not one PP reference that is trading close to MSRP. Plenty of APs are significantly below MSRP.

I think your assessment of premium on AP is generous. 15202s are trading low 40s. I doubt 16202 go for $80k…

AP is not participating in non sports category so comparison is mute.

Comparison is “mute” tells me all I need about your opinion.

[Watchman001]

Originally Posted by vliberman

All of the PP sports watches are at premium, a few of AP are. There is not one PP reference that is trading close to MSRP. Plenty of APs are significantly below MSRP.

I think your assessment of premium on AP is generous. 15202s are trading low 40s. I doubt 16202 go for $80k…

AP is not participating in non sports category so comparison is mute.

Where are 15202s in the low 40s? I am on the hunt for one and still see above 60 for anything 2016 or later.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by vwc228

Not sure how AP expects to grow/sustain their brand if new customers can't even get their most undesirable and entry level pieces!

I'm not quite sure what you're arguing here? If they have more customers than watches even for the Code, that seems the perfect recipe to grow/sustain their brand. Or are you saying that they are not selling you a Code out of spite, while hiding the watches in the back?