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ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
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#1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: US
Posts: 55
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Talk me out of Buying a 5167A From the Gray Market
Can someone please talk me out of buying a 5167A on the Gray market LOL. I would love to here reasons for and against buying now. This would be my first Patek. A couple things that keep rattling around in my mind are laid out in the list below. I would really love to here from owners of this watch so if you do own one can you please indicate that in your response.
1. I would be paying 30K over list for a stainless steel watch...... on rubber...... but dam i know me and this is what i want to wear. 2. Will the market value continue to drop, or go up....based on what factors. 3. My AD which i have gotten the new panda and pepsi from are not Patek yet....they hope and plan to be.....I should note other stores owned by them are so its not impossible. 4. Has anybody else been offered one in the last few years..... whats your story on how your where allocated one.....Spend History? family history? or just got lucky? 5. is there anything im forgetting to ask? |
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#2 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: wHerE do U liv
Watch: President
Posts: 1,400
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Bliss, the market is what the market is. Could change and no one knows. As of right now, the prices have been steady across the market and the 5167a is steadily selling in the 50-60 range. Buy one and enjoy it now :D
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5164R Aquanaut "Tiffany & Co" 18238 Champagne Day Date |
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#3 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: North Carolina
Watch: Rolex/Others
Posts: 46,529
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Not a huge PP fan but a watch fan none the less. If this is the watch you want and can afford it then set the other questions aside. Who cares about values, paying over retail or the long term wear/value as it will be your forever. If that is not the case and the cost is significant and way too much over then pass and watch. If it is not a forever watch then pass right now and watch. I would pass period but this is not the watch for me. For what you would have in this watch there are so many options in the market. Good luck and let us know what you decide.
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#4 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Europe
Posts: 3,360
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Owners are the wrong people to talk you out of anything... LOL
1. If you have your heart set on it... Personally, I was unimpressed by 5167A when I tried it on. Didn't want one for 15k a decade ago. 2. Who knows but my feeling is that the price decline is accelerating again after some extended lull. 3. Chances are your AD won't become a Patek AD at a time when Patek are cutting ADs left and right. 4. Anecdotal evidence won't help. You can always visit some Patek ADs and see how it goes. I did just that when I wanted a 5711/1A. 5. In the end it depends on how much you want the watch and how much 30k (over list) mean to you. Only you can answer those questions. |
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#5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Sunderland
Posts: 1,284
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I think a lot of models will be available soon but not the Aquanaut, averaging £43k in the U.K. and it’s possible they could go lower, save yourself the hassle if you want one go for it.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Instagram @scurfawatches |
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#6 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2013
Real Name: Steve
Location: Indiana
Watch: PP/AP/VC
Posts: 2,122
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Of course none of us can predict the future market, so you will have to decide when the timing is right for you. I also do not think Patek will increase ADs, they will continue to cut.
As for the watch, the 5167 is super comfortable and highly legible. I own a 5167R now and love it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#7 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2023
Location: UK
Posts: 217
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The current market premium is still huge as well you know. Personally I would not pay it, but it is your money and as many people point out that we are all dead in the long run.
My personal hunch is that we will continue to see well above trend in global inflation over the next decade and that Patek's retail prices will continue to try to reflect that. (So RRP converging on current market price). However I do see big risks to the global economy over the short terms (0-3 years time horizon). With that climate I see the watch market overall reverting to a more normal supply demand balance compared to what we have seen over the past four years. In other words, we are not fully corrected and that there is more downside to come. But these are just my thoughts. You'll have to make up your own mind. And only you can say how impatient you are for a watch you clearly covet. |
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#8 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: US
Posts: 55
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Thank you all for the wise comments and advise, one thing i forgot to mention is i will be trading in watches i dont ware for this one. I am not pulling cash out of anything. In tern i could invest this money but....
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#9 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2014
Real Name: Felix
Location: GMT +1
Watch: Yes!
Posts: 3,020
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This was my last reply to someone asking a similar question.
![]() https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...79&postcount=6 |
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#10 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2022
Real Name: Bazil Brush
Location: Star Gazing
Watch: Any Daytona
Posts: 3,300
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"don’t buy it "
Did that help ?
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![]() ![]() If you have no enemies, you have no character. Taking a stand always creates opposition. Paul Newman Being Serious = Onto the list you go ![]() ![]() |
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#11 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,794
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![]() Seriously, it’s such a basic watch on rubber - The premium is mind blowing and doesn’t make sense from a comparative standpoint (looking at other pieces, you can get with complications at a similar price). I think it’s a great watch and some thing I would potentially daily, but no way I’m paying that sort of pricing for a watch on a rubber strap with no complication
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#12 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: USA
Posts: 2,044
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Talk me out of Buying a 5167A From the Gray Market
Who cares if you could buy a more complicated watch for the same money. Buy what you want and what you’ll wear.
Would you be ok if you lost $10k on this? Would you sell it if it went up $10k? Prob not. Don’t worry about retail price it’s irrelevant to you (and me). I paid over 100k for the aquanaut I wanted. It was worth it to me. I don’t even know what the retail price was, maybe half? It’s fine. It would be cheaper if it wasn’t worth it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#13 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,794
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Quote:
Also for you to say that the watch would be cheaper if it wasn’t worth it is a fallacy. Do you really believe an illiquid and opaque market such as the watch resale market is priced to perfection in perpetuity? Cheap is subjective and that’s fine, but your claim doesn’t follow logic stating it definitively as such
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#14 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: US
Posts: 55
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Quote:
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#15 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 375
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it's not to my taste so I personally wouldn't. But with that said I think you can find a gently used one for much less than $30K premium.. Good luck, the hunt is usually the best part!
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#16 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: NY, NY
Posts: 460
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Do it!
Do it! Do it! Do not listen to any other opinions - because when you’re rocking the 5167 they will wish they were you………. |
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#17 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2022
Location: Europa
Posts: 186
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That’s expensive for a steel and rubber no complications watch.
Get yourself a nice Royal Oak and some pocket change. I used to be fan of Aquanauts and Nautilus until I tried them on. The price of those sports pieces are just so high because production is so god damn low … |
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#18 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 205
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Not in order:
I love my Aquanauts (yes, plural). Light, comfortable, readable, good lume, not "Nautilus jewelry" look for a bid under the radar. A 5164a was my daily for years. Try to get over "but its on a rubber strap" thing. They are an integral part of the design, carrying on the dial and for this reason I never liked it on the bracelet. Other high-end watches are on rubber and few object. The straps are light, flexible, comfortable and seemingly last forever. And cost $250USD. I'm still using a good looking one from 2013. I doubt you're getting a new one from an AD. I don't know anyone who has despite trying for years, although they're not whales or big bundlers. Only you can rationalize the grey premium. |
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#19 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 1,883
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It's an incredibly mediocre watch for the money vs competition in the same price point. It wears like a ~$10k - $15k watch.
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#20 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2013
Real Name: Rick
Location: Ohio
Posts: 218
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Such a personal decision.
Sometimes we choose to massively overpay for an item that we just must have. Whether it be a watch, a concert ticket, a house, a difficult to obtain car, whatever. Do any of our watches have an intrinsic value of $10K or much less $50K or $100K ? Of course not. Is a first class seat on an airplane worth a 5X premium? It's about where you want to dispose of your disposable income. For me, it would not be for an Aquanaut. A different Patek, yes possibly. |
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#21 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2014
Real Name: James
Location: chicago
Watch: AP, PP
Posts: 347
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I LOVE the 5167a. I hunted the watch for years. Finally bought one as they were on the rise.
You don't need to worry about the future. Enjoy the watch. You'll NEVER sell it. Is it worth it? That's up to you. I have $1500 SS watches on Rubber, $15,000 SS watches on Rubber, and $100k on Rubber. I bought them because I want to wear them. Plus you'll enjoy it more knowing what you paid and no one is the wiser. |
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#22 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 62
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Quote:
Look at the prices 10 years ago. Don't look at prices month-to-month. If you might need the money on short term don't buy it. |
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#23 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Washington
Watch: Cartier Panthere
Posts: 1,055
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Buy it, I would, if I could afford Gray, YOLO
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Cartier Panthere ,Tudor GMT Cartier Santos 100 XL ,Tudor 925 DJ 36 Pink Dial ,PAM Due Blue DJ 36 White Dial ,CasiOak Sub ND |
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#24 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Santa Fe
Posts: 1,870
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Don"t Do it! Don't get the 5167A. Get the 5167/1A, the bracelet is superb, contrary to what you've heard, and on the newer models you can have it changed out for the strap.
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#25 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 76,237
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I could never do it for that watch
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#26 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Europe
Posts: 2,847
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nobody knows what the price will be withen 6 months, 2 years or 5 years.
but when looking at the price chart for this watch on chrono24 I THINK we saw the bottom. March 2022 it was a ridiculous 100 K Today its between let's say 45 and 60 depending age, complete set and condition. Only thing I would do is look for the one on steel bracelet Its imo MUCH nicer and yo can always chance to a rubber strap, the rubber strap and buckle are expensive but MUCH cheaper than buying a steel bracelet afterwards I always hated rubber straps and they make any watch look cheap ... well that is my opinion
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Instagram : @collectible_watches |
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#27 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Boutique
Posts: 28
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In the same boat and I don't think the value of the watch going up matters as much as down. While he may never sell the watch, it's the thought that he's losing potential money that could go towards other things if he waits. Or in OP's case maybe not trading in 1 of his watches.
I have zero problems paying if it was from Patek directly. It's not the thought of spending more money that causes me to lose sleep, it's buying too high when I am willing to wait and hopefully save some money. If given an allocation slot today and told if you spent 10k extra you don't have to wait 2 years, some people would wait, others wouldn't mind spending more. I don't think the statement saying it's a stainless watch on a strap works because a 5711 is a pretty simple watch too and people still paid ridiculous prices for it... |
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#28 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: US
Posts: 55
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Quote:
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#29 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,794
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Quote:
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#30 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Georgia
Posts: 6,258
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It’s a watch I’d buy at retail if presented but I wouldn’t ask for it nor would I buy it at grey. That’s my recommendation to anyone regarding the watch.
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