Talk me out of Buying a 5167A From the Gray Market

[bliss]

Can someone please talk me out of buying a 5167A on the Gray market LOL. I would love to here reasons for and against buying now. This would be my first Patek. A couple things that keep rattling around in my mind are laid out in the list below. I would really love to here from owners of this watch so if you do own one can you please indicate that in your response.

1. I would be paying 30K over list for a stainless steel watch...... on rubber...... but dam i know me and this is what i want to wear.

2. Will the market value continue to drop, or go up....based on what factors.

3. My AD which i have gotten the new panda and pepsi from are not Patek yet....they hope and plan to be.....I should note other stores owned by them are so its not impossible.

4. Has anybody else been offered one in the last few years..... whats your story on how your where allocated one.....Spend History? family history? or just got lucky?

5. is there anything im forgetting to ask?

[jgottsman11]

Bliss, the market is what the market is. Could change and no one knows. As of right now, the prices have been steady across the market and the 5167a is steadily selling in the 50-60 range. Buy one and enjoy it now :D

[1William]

Not a huge PP fan but a watch fan none the less. If this is the watch you want and can afford it then set the other questions aside. Who cares about values, paying over retail or the long term wear/value as it will be your forever. If that is not the case and the cost is significant and way too much over then pass and watch. If it is not a forever watch then pass right now and watch. I would pass period but this is not the watch for me. For what you would have in this watch there are so many options in the market. Good luck and let us know what you decide.

[ts3]

Owners are the wrong people to talk you out of anything... LOL

1. If you have your heart set on it... Personally, I was unimpressed by 5167A when I tried it on. Didn't want one for 15k a decade ago.

2. Who knows but my feeling is that the price decline is accelerating again after some extended lull.

3. Chances are your AD won't become a Patek AD at a time when Patek are cutting ADs left and right.

4. Anecdotal evidence won't help. You can always visit some Patek ADs and see how it goes. I did just that when I wanted a 5711/1A.

5. In the end it depends on how much you want the watch and how much 30k (over list) mean to you. Only you can answer those questions.

[scurfa]

I think a lot of models will be available soon but not the Aquanaut, averaging £43k in the U.K. and it’s possible they could go lower, save yourself the hassle if you want one go for it.


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[srvrf]

Of course none of us can predict the future market, so you will have to decide when the timing is right for you. I also do not think Patek will increase ADs, they will continue to cut.

As for the watch, the 5167 is super comfortable and highly legible. I own a 5167R now and love it.


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[IGY]

The current market premium is still huge as well you know. Personally I would not pay it, but it is your money and as many people point out that we are all dead in the long run.

My personal hunch is that we will continue to see well above trend in global inflation over the next decade and that Patek's retail prices will continue to try to reflect that. (So RRP converging on current market price). However I do see big risks to the global economy over the short terms (0-3 years time horizon). With that climate I see the watch market overall reverting to a more normal supply demand balance compared to what we have seen over the past four years. In other words, we are not fully corrected and that there is more downside to come.

But these are just my thoughts. You'll have to make up your own mind. And only you can say how impatient you are for a watch you clearly covet.

[bliss]

Thank you all for the wise comments and advise, one thing i forgot to mention is i will be trading in watches i dont ware for this one. I am not pulling cash out of anything. In tern i could invest this money but....

[Flex368]

This was my last reply to someone asking a similar question.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...79&postcount=6

[Bazil]

"don’t buy it "
Did that help ?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Bazil

"don’t buy it "
Did that help ?

Seriously, it’s such a basic watch on rubber - The premium is mind blowing and doesn’t make sense from a comparative standpoint (looking at other pieces, you can get with complications at a similar price).

I think it’s a great watch and some thing I would potentially daily, but no way I’m paying that sort of pricing for a watch on a rubber strap with no complication

[APhound]

Who cares if you could buy a more complicated watch for the same money. Buy what you want and what you’ll wear.
Would you be ok if you lost $10k on this? Would you sell it if it went up $10k? Prob not. Don’t worry about retail price it’s irrelevant to you (and me). I paid over 100k for the aquanaut I wanted. It was worth it to me. I don’t even know what the retail price was, maybe half? It’s fine.
It would be cheaper if it wasn’t worth it.


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by APhound

Who cares if you could buy a more complicated watch for the same money. Buy what you want and what you’ll wear.
Would you be ok if you lost $10k on this? Would you sell it if it went up $10k? Prob not. Don’t worry about retail price it’s irrelevant to you (and me). I paid over 100k for the aquanaut I wanted. It was worth it to me. I don’t even know what the retail price was, maybe half? It’s fine.
It would be cheaper if it wasn’t worth it.


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OPs post makes it clear he is cognizant of resale & retail even though he may not sell…

Also for you to say that the watch would be cheaper if it wasn’t worth it is a fallacy. Do you really believe an illiquid and opaque market such as the watch resale market is priced to perfection in perpetuity? Cheap is subjective and that’s fine, but your claim doesn’t follow logic stating it definitively as such

[bliss]

Originally Posted by APhound

Who cares if you could buy a more complicated watch for the same money. Buy what you want and what you’ll wear.
Would you be ok if you lost $10k on this? Would you sell it if it went up $10k? Prob not. Don’t worry about retail price it’s irrelevant to you (and me). I paid over 100k for the aquanaut I wanted. It was worth it to me. I don’t even know what the retail price was, maybe half? It’s fine.
It would be cheaper if it wasn’t worth it.


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This is along my way of thinking as well.....at the moment any way LOL

[johnsonsxusfrt]

it's not to my taste so I personally wouldn't. But with that said I think you can find a gently used one for much less than $30K premium.. Good luck, the hunt is usually the best part!

[2000-NJDEVILS]

Do it!
Do it!
Do it!
Do not listen to any other opinions -
because when you’re rocking the 5167 they will wish they were you……….

[TheHolyLuck]

That’s expensive for a steel and rubber no complications watch.
Get yourself a nice Royal Oak and some pocket change.
I used to be fan of Aquanauts and Nautilus until I tried them on. The price of those sports pieces are just so high because production is so god damn low …

[DavidSB]

Not in order:

I love my Aquanauts (yes, plural). Light, comfortable, readable, good lume, not "Nautilus jewelry" look for a bid under the radar. A 5164a was my daily for years.

Try to get over "but its on a rubber strap" thing. They are an integral part of the design, carrying on the dial and for this reason I never liked it on the bracelet. Other high-end watches are on rubber and few object. The straps are light, flexible, comfortable and seemingly last forever. And cost $250USD. I'm still using a good looking one from 2013.

I doubt you're getting a new one from an AD. I don't know anyone who has despite trying for years, although they're not whales or big bundlers.

Only you can rationalize the grey premium.

[WatchEater666]

It's an incredibly mediocre watch for the money vs competition in the same price point. It wears like a ~$10k - $15k watch.

[metallic]

Such a personal decision.

Sometimes we choose to massively overpay for an item that we just must have. Whether it be a watch, a concert ticket, a house, a difficult to obtain car, whatever.

Do any of our watches have an intrinsic value of $10K or much less $50K or $100K ? Of course not. Is a first class seat on an airplane worth a 5X premium?

It's about where you want to dispose of your disposable income.

For me, it would not be for an Aquanaut. A different Patek, yes possibly.

[jfriedkin]

I LOVE the 5167a. I hunted the watch for years. Finally bought one as they were on the rise.

You don't need to worry about the future. Enjoy the watch. You'll NEVER sell it.

Is it worth it? That's up to you.

I have $1500 SS watches on Rubber, $15,000 SS watches on Rubber, and $100k on Rubber. I bought them because I want to wear them.

Plus you'll enjoy it more knowing what you paid and no one is the wiser.

[aa_watch]

Originally Posted by bliss

2. Will the market value continue to drop, or go up....based on what factors.

I do not have a crystal ball but if you keep the watch on long term it's quite safe to assume you will not sell with a loss. The brand increase retail prices every years.
Look at the prices 10 years ago.


Don't look at prices month-to-month.

If you might need the money on short term don't buy it.

[SudiYunus]

Buy it, I would, if I could afford Gray, YOLO

[cascavel]

Don"t Do it! Don't get the 5167A. Get the 5167/1A, the bracelet is superb, contrary to what you've heard, and on the newer models you can have it changed out for the strap.

[brandrea]

I could never do it for that watch

[unknown]

nobody knows what the price will be withen 6 months, 2 years or 5 years.

but when looking at the price chart for this watch on chrono24 I THINK we saw the bottom.
March 2022 it was a ridiculous 100 K
Today its between let's say 45 and 60 depending age, complete set and condition.

Only thing I would do is look for the one on steel bracelet
Its imo MUCH nicer and yo can always chance to a rubber strap, the rubber strap and buckle are expensive but MUCH cheaper than buying a steel bracelet afterwards

I always hated rubber straps and they make any watch look cheap ... well that is my opinion

[CarForHire]

In the same boat and I don't think the value of the watch going up matters as much as down. While he may never sell the watch, it's the thought that he's losing potential money that could go towards other things if he waits. Or in OP's case maybe not trading in 1 of his watches.

I have zero problems paying if it was from Patek directly. It's not the thought of spending more money that causes me to lose sleep, it's buying too high when I am willing to wait and hopefully save some money. If given an allocation slot today and told if you spent 10k extra you don't have to wait 2 years, some people would wait, others wouldn't mind spending more.

I don't think the statement saying it's a stainless watch on a strap works because a 5711 is a pretty simple watch too and people still paid ridiculous prices for it...

[bliss]

Originally Posted by CarForHire

In the same boat and I don't think the value of the watch going up matters as much as down. While he may never sell the watch, it's the thought that he's losing potential money that could go towards other things if he waits. Or in OP's case maybe not trading in 1 of his watches.

I have zero problems paying if it was from Patek directly. It's not the thought of spending more money that causes me to lose sleep, it's buying too high when I am willing to wait and hopefully save some money. If given an allocation slot today and told if you spent 10k extra you don't have to wait 2 years, some people would wait, others wouldn't mind spending more.

I don't think the statement saying it's a stainless watch on a strap works because a 5711 is a pretty simple watch too and people still paid ridiculous prices for it...

Bro.....get out of my head

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by CarForHire

In the same boat and I don't think the value of the watch going up matters as much as down. While he may never sell the watch, it's the thought that he's losing potential money that could go towards other things if he waits. Or in OP's case maybe not trading in 1 of his watches.

I have zero problems paying if it was from Patek directly. It's not the thought of spending more money that causes me to lose sleep, it's buying too high when I am willing to wait and hopefully save some money. If given an allocation slot today and told if you spent 10k extra you don't have to wait 2 years, some people would wait, others wouldn't mind spending more.

I don't think the statement saying it's a stainless watch on a strap works because a 5711 is a pretty simple watch too and people still paid ridiculous prices for it...

Yep, +1 I would be fine paying the ridiculous price if it was actually through an AD. Just for the peace of mind and experience

[Pw92676]

It’s a watch I’d buy at retail if presented but I wouldn’t ask for it nor would I buy it at grey. That’s my recommendation to anyone regarding the watch.