Klokke |
22 October 2008 08:31 AM |
Sorry, but predicting it won't make it true. Daytona demand strong as ever!
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcash0615
(Post 810044)
I have predicted and still predict that in the next 12 months or so, we will hear stories of TRF memebers buying SS Daytona's at AD's for less then MSRP. I predict that AD's are going to be discounting all models just to move inventory. With the 40% mark up that has been quoted on this forum from what AD's pay for these watches, even with a 20% discount everyone is still making money. The good deals are coming. This is really going to hurt the grey dealers and others trying to sell their Rolex's.
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You can't predict such things because you simply have no objective data to support the prediction. Daytona demand was and is still high unlike the GMT II-C, SDDS, and GV Milie. Anecdotal evidence from a handful of WISs and ADs is not objective or conclusive. As soon as 2 or 3 WISs coincidentally buy or see a Daytona at their AD, everyone starts calling for an end to the Daytona hype.
We have seen this many times before. We have been hearing of an impending price/demand drop in Daytonas for literally years but it never seems to happen. What is likely going on now is simply the coincidental arrival of a batch of Daytonas at US ADs from Rolex.
The GV Milgauss is a very cool Rolex but it is not going to be like the SS Daytona, just as the GMT II-C did not become like the SS Daytona despite initial speculation. There's only one Rolex like the SS Daytona and it's called the SS Daytona. The Daytona has more of a history than the Milgauss. The demand and scarcity of the SS Daytona have steadily increased over more than a decade. It is clearly not a fad. The big auction house sold a '71 "Albino" Daytona for over half a million dollars on April 23, 2008. I doubt a Milie has ever sold for much more than a tenth of that number. The Daytona is a legend.
With the SS GMT II-C and now with the GV Milgauss and the SDDS we see a short burst of high demand at retail launch followed by a sharp drop in price back towards list price. We have no access to Rolex production numbers, shipments, or AD sales. Anecdotal evidence from one AD who may or may not have an agenda is not objective. A few TZ salescorner sales is not indicative. The current market prices (the Bay and GM-ers) tell the true story and are the only objective measures of supply and demand. GV prices are down because demand is down. SS Daytona prices have been have been over list for years. Waiting lists for SS Daytonas can be years long and that's if you are a good customer.
Worldwide, black is harder to get and commands a higher premium over list in most countries (e.g. Japan). This may not be an issue if you are not going to flip it but rarity is always nice to have.
The perceived increased popularity of white in some countries is likely due to the greater availability of the white dial compared to black even though both are still very hard to get at an AD for list price.
Finally, there is historic support for going with the black dial. COSMOGRAPH production began in 1963 with the reference 6239, initially with a VALJOUX 72B movement, and identical to that of the 6238 models. The oldest examples have a bezel for speed measurement with graduations and silver counters on a BLACK DIAL for the steel version.
Having said all that, get whichever comes your way first. You won't have a choice unless you plan on paying over list. And the chance to get it at an AD at list price and have your name on the registration is great. There are always risks higher prices buying gray market or pre-owned.
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