Bump, Bump, Goose? S’long Nautilus speculators!
 

Is it finally happening? The nonsense with secondary market and AD bad behavior (forcing you to by unwanted dress watches to deem yourself worthy of a 5726) seem to be reaching a breaking point. Hong Kong destabilizing and Chinese currency issues don’t seem to be helping. Glad I didn’t place my investment dollars into Nautilus hoarding and looking forward to buying for retail by Q1 2020 at the very latest.

Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched.

That's wishful thinking...

As long as production is kept at current levels, I don't see the secondary market prices coming down.

HongKong has protested before. It may take a few more months but fatigue will set in and HongKong will recover.

Folks use HK as a port of entry to Asia due to the lack of import duties. As such there is a blockage in the supply chain, not a lack of demand.

Looks more like a classic bubble. It’s already in full burst mode for the Rolex models that had gone crazy. BLNR, Daytona, GMT Pepsi, Hulk, all sitting at the inflated prices and smarter speculators are quietly starting to move stuff and much closer to retail. Same is true of the insane / fake prices for the Nautilus models, especially on the high end. And quoting Patek’s so-called production numbers is citing a false economy. They are using this frenzy to help ADs move much less desirable dress watches. Here’s what two long-time ADs from whom I’ve bought hundreds of thousands in jewelry and watches told me. Want a 5711? Show your commitment to the brand by paying retail for a Calatrava 6006G and maybe a 5159J and you’ll go right to the top of the Nautilus list. Of course, those two watches drop in value the moment I walk out the door more than the retail price of a Nautilus. And yet speculators keep buying an otherwise entry level watch at even crazy inflated prices. That’s bubble behavior.

I don’t see why you can’t already find a 5726 if you’ve spend hundreds of thousands on jewelry at your AD.

I think the OP is really overstating things. I really don’t see SS Rolex as having gone ‘full bust’. I’m sure there’s folk out there with a lot of inventory who are super exposed but without something huge happening I don’t see a massive correction to the point of any of these pieces selling at retail any time soon (Q1 2020? Really?)


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Great point Tom!

Welcome to the Patek subforum Nostradamus. Care to share the Pateks you currently own?

This business of buying unwanted stuff from an AD is exactly the opposite of the way I see it. I’ve been a loyal customer of my AD for about five years. Loyal enough to get invited on a trip to Patek. Our relationship started when he pulled some watches out of the safe and asked if I was interested. They weren’t easy to come by even then. But I appreciated his approach and have been a customer ever since. Another AD that’s been trying to get me to buy from him/her has the exact opposite way of doing business. Three years ago I asked for a ceramic bezel Daytona right after it was announced at Basel. They said sure we’ll get you one. In the meantime they regularly text me asking if I want Pateks that I can get from my regular guy no problem. And no Daytona three years later. I’ve asked a few times and they BS me about how hard they are to get, they don’t get many etc. But the point is I’ve never bought anything from them and probably never will. They could have sold me watches, they’re local and I used to stop in there when in the neighborhood. But the approach is all wrong in my opinion. It’s not up to me to develop the relationship it's up to them. Just my opinion.

I'm not sure any of this has much to do with supply...it will all play out against demand. When the economy falls the watch market will be a fast follower. SS, PM, sport, dress, blue, green,.. they will all be easier to get and the balance will tilt back in favor of buyers.

It will be interesting to see the proportions by which everything falls. Likely fair to speculate dress will have a harder time than sport. PM harder than SS...

I am in agreement and think the end of this madness is over or almost over thankfully.

I long for the times when we could all enjoy the hobby

Previous spends with my AD got me on the list. It’s if I want to jump the queue that requires buying a couple dress watches. This is not an uncommon phenomenon right now and the rest of Patek’s line (and effete dress watches in general) struggle compared to sport watches that appeal to a younger and more active demographic. And I speak fairly regularly with a couple of the volume resellers who pop up on this forum and they are definitely starting to see a crack in the zeal for steel with marked differences between the asks and the gets. I’ll bide my time. I’ve seen it before with stocks, real estate, other watch brands, even Pateks for a while. It’s an interesting spectacle to observe for sure.

lol @ nautilus being available at retail Q1 2020

Looks like these threads have finally made their way through to the Patek sub forum. What a shame

What's the discussion here? Bubbles been called since 35k, 40k, 45k...60k... And now sub 70k...

Would you like a medal for your diatribe too?

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It’s like stock analyst calling for demise for certain hot stocks, they want to be the first one to call it.

A shame to have an honest discussion about a sham inflated market gone crazy? A thoughtful discussion about markets gone crazy and economic factors is a diatribe? Then don’t respond or read. And Godspeed if you paid top of the market.

So many aqua and Nauti fans here I wouldn’t bother.

Fair point. My love affair with them runs deep and covers decades, which is probably why I care so much. And don’t think for a moment I don’t give props to those who bought low and sold high - I just want to buy low and hold!

Only if all buyers boycott buying Patek dress watches, maybe Mr. Stern will be forced to produce more sports watches to survive.

Perhaps people believe posting about the bubble bursting will make it happen so they can finally own the piece they "want"... then to only realize its no longer in demand so they noi longer want it.

I don’t necessarily disagree but I’ll give you an alternative view... if the Chinese can’t get their money out of China quickly, they will likely buy anything that holds value in USD terms. Gold, bitcoin, watches art, etc. in that scenario while run of the mill watches go down in value a lot like the dress watches have... possibly the nauti and aquas hold.


I also am hoping for some softness in the market but so that I can buy some other stuff. I’ve been texting my RM dealer every few days to remind him some of his clients may be losing a lot of money in the market and he may want to move me up the list.

:)

Alternative take; if the Chinese economy experiences a severe downturn the US and Europe are going to experience a severe recession that makes the last major downturn seem like good times. As such, the Nautilus and Aquanaut are going to tank in price.

I don’t believe the Us is going to a severe recession. By the way the negative interest interest rates globally likely going to force inflation up. All real assets inflate ...buying power will go down. At least for some

In an extreme world ...hyper inflation

I am assuming you know more about the financial world than me. After all, I am just an idiot that buys dress watches :cheers:

Rich idiot :)

Your one quote back in the day still makes me laugh to this day:cheers:

Agree- nearly choked on my coffee. Not a chance in hell there will be a 5711/12 / 5167/5164 at msrp on the secondary market in 2020. I’d bet my 5167 and 5712 on it lol.


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There does seem to be some momentum building that this could the top, and maybe it is, but the watch market is a lot more resilient and controlled than any other market so I don't think there will be a massive correction, but if a sustained downturn in money markets occurs globally then the greys will only be able to prop up the market for so long. HK protests could just be a temporary glitch or could be the inciting incident to a new market period.

Whatever the ninja said. I will back him to the hilt.

Ok, that sounds a little odd, but I believe whatever a man with 2 5711 blue said. Cheers.

Lol so much confidence lol...now I’m craving ramen