Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!
 

Hi everyone
I started a conversation a few days ago about the grey market flooded with ceramic daytonas and batmans.
The overwhelming response was that prices would drop drastically
My personal feeling is that nothing will change, mainly because brands like AP and PP, which are just as hard to get (maybe harder) for years, have also flooded the grey market, but their prices stay high.
My valid question is, do those brands always sell quickly (in the grey market)?

Supply and Demand. The market has been flourishing until recently, now in uncertain times most people are sitting back so prices are dropping somewhat temporarily, the higher the price the higher percentage drop. I don't see any panic situation where prices will plummet.

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I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c

Grey prices will drop dramatically and availability will increase at the ADs. It just seems logical to me considering we are going through a global pandemic with almost the complete freezing of economies. The issue also looks to be just getting started in the USA and we are yet to see the worst of it by far. Just my opinion!

I'm in the market for a new Rolex and will be taking my time and shopping around as the prices drop and availability increases.

Andy, whether or not the brands sell quickly on the grey market depends on a reference by reference basis.

I agree on the AD availability part. However, I am not sure about the prices "dramatically drop" scenario at the grey dealers. If that happen, I expect the stampede effect to take place and the prices in that case might fall bellow the MSRP like they did before 2017. Though, I believe all grays are now holding tight and hoping the situation will clear and return to "normal" (shortage of SS models) in just couple of months. Though, nothing will be the same with such a massive job loss all over the USA.

Nobody knows for sure at this point. All eyes are now on the USA who is fighting with massive number of infected ppl, even more than China as I understood. Trump is promising a great rebound of economy later this year as I understood from the news ..

Hope you guys get through this quickly as that's what's most important now and I hope that if anything good can come up from this mess will be normalization of the watch market for us enthusiast.

The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

The ting is this: no one knows what will happen! We are in the middle of something that we haven’t experienced before, and no one knows how the end will turn out - not for the society as a whole and not for Rolex specifically.

People look at the markets and make the conclusion that Rolex sales will fluctuate with them. This is in my mind a pre-mature and lazy analysis. They might, and they might not - a much deeper analysis would have to be carried out to say anything conclusive regarding beta-values of the Rolex market, and the market as a whole.

Just remember, you have absolutely no way of knowing who sits behind the screens on the internet, but it is very easy to sound super confident that the prices will drop or the contrary- that they will rise. Just look at this thread already!

My best advice is to educate yourself on the subject and make your own conclusions.

To answer your question: as one other poster already said, it depends on the specific reference. Due to the current uncertainty, one could expect that even the most popular references would go a longer time without being sold.

Of course, nobody will pay those inflated prices. That's why I commented it will be easier to get the model you want directly from the AD once the whole Rolex market lose the majority of buyers due to crisis we are facing.

It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol ..

But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom

I would like to see anyone who charges above MSRP to go down in flames!

I would think once Rolex is back up and running they will deliver more sought after models to support their AD network and help them recover from the loss of revenue ADs experienced from the closures. If more supply hits at retail, secondary prices will drop. How much is anybody's guest.

Yeah but I’m simply commenting that once the AD has stock, the greys will be forced to drop prices (steeply) or have forever sitting stock. It’s either sell at a loss or never sell.

Your assumption would only be true if the demand stayed constant, which it cannot. With the amount of people losing jobs and whose income is affected, there will have to be less buyers. Less buyers means more stock with grey market. More stock with less demand equals dropping price until equilibrium is established. That's IF ADs remain in their current state (minimal product to sell). Your premise relies on greys to not adapt and keep prices high as demand falls and that's not how it works in the long run.

I agree with you. There is not a union, but it's in their best interest to work together and this is already happening to control price. A couple greys lowering prices set a precedent which has a trickle effect to the others. At some point, a small-time grey or someone without much working capital has to lower to survive, then it's house of cards from there. The larger players are talking to set prices for the interest of all involved (not customers obviously).

🥱. Yawn. So many threads on this exact topic.


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There might be less buyers, the question is if there is enough less buyers.
If supply before were 100 and demand were 150, then demand might fall to 125 but demand will still be higher than supply, keeping a hand under the prices.

I completely agree with you but be careful many will get extremely mad at you for saying this. :chuckle:

Yeah man exactly!!!! I feel the same way about anyone trying to ask more for their house than what they paid for it.

Except my house of course. :twit:

Hah - I am always surprised to see how many Americans on this forum that actually hates the free market. I have a suspicion that the thinking is “I love the free market.....unless it to my disadvantage!”

I have the answer and it is simple. “We shall see.”

We love the free market. The greys had their day.. now its our turn to get watches we WANT for MSRP or 20% off. The greys are about to get their lunch eaten. Free market for the win.

Its like people who buy multi million dollar homes then default on them. I am not happy peoples lives will be ruined but I will happily buy that house for 50% off on the back side. Free market win.

If you wanted to sell your watch and market price was 2x MSRP, would you charge MSRP for yours?

I don't have a huge watch collection maybe 7 or 8 nice pieces, What i do have is the calmness and capacity to ride out this awful period.

I didn't buy them as investments neither do i worry what the watch market is doing, I hope they retain most of their value if they don't I have enjoyed the chase, buying and wearing them.

If $$$$$$$ is what owning a Rolex is about, that point has been lost on me.

:dude:

Yes, this is exactly what I wrote - “the free market is great.....unless it is to my own disadvantage.”
The free market is great when grays are supplying watches at a 20% discount from MSRP. But anyone daring to charge over MSRP should go down in flames!

I am not saying you have said this, but have seen quote a few posts in this forum along these lines.

I think grey sellers are hoping against hope here. I don’t want them to go down in flames. But nothing like a recession to correct the course.

Want to know common denominator among these opposing comments? It’s all by grey sellers “pledge members”. That being said, I have sold watches here as well. But got to get real here folks!

I’m confused. It’s already happening. Two months back a new jubilee batman was around $14.5k. They’re now openly advertised at $13k. I’ve seen used offered at leas than $12k here.

It’s not a case of if. It’s already happening.

Wait what?? I’m not a grey seller. I am a pledge member because I believe in financially supporting the things in which I participate and the Resources I use. I didn’t check but I assume you too are a pledge member because you’re using this forum. If not, please consider financially supporting the people who provide this service to you.


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Right... hoping the market swings back in " your " direction by someone elses demise is all part of the free market.

I hope the greys squirreled their profits away while the getting was good because the party of the century is over, possibly forever.

There’s a large group who have paid over MSRP and are holding onto every remaining thread of hope it doesn’t go back down :agree:

I’ll be so happy to have true WIS back in the game. It was so much better 10 years ago discussing watches. Nowadays EVERYTHING circled back to money/investment/profit/availability. Just want to return to buying watches because you like them and being appreciative if it holds 75% its value.

Quickest way to find out is to call a gray and start negotiating your best price on a 5711 or white Daytona C. Let’s us know what you come up with.