Originally Posted by Cool watch
Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...
Without further ado,
This isn't rocket science.
Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.
1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.
2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.
3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.
4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.
5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.
At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).
BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.
It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.
Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.
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