I would affix the watch on the tighter end, wear it a bit, and allow it stretch. This can take some time and requires some wear and tear on the strap. It might also stretch the hole that the buckle pin sits in. I have found, however, that in time all my straps stretch whether I wear them tightly or not. I'd rather my straps stretch into a perfect fit than a looser one.
The issue with Panerai and straps is that you really have 3 different variables: the case shape, the case diameter/size, and the strap size. Any one of those could result in a different fit. The strap material is also important. A rubber strap is obviously far more tolerant when tight versus a brand new leather strap.
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