Just to play devil's advocate, I have a couple of different thoughts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deppe
1. For the average watch person, the two watches are basically the same. It is only in here that we discuss the minor details. So when presented with the choice more people will chose the 116, simply because it is cheaper, pressing the price up.
|
It could be argued that the average watch person may well be more likely to pick the 12 ref because it's the newer "latest" thing. We know this to be true in many other cases, however I would agree that a connoisseur would be more likely to want to collect the more "historic" model. For the average person though.... hmm I think that's more open-ended.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deppe
2. People speculate that the 116 will become collectible in the future, due to the 6/7 years production time.
|
6/7 years isn't a particularly short run time, it's fairly average for a modern Rolex. Additionally, is it possible for a modern Daytona to become
more collectible than it already is?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deppe
Further, Rolex watches today are produced in greater numbers
So going forward there will be a greater supply of full set watches.
|
Just to touch on production numbers - let's be under no illusion here, yes, SS Daytona's are allegedly made in relatively low numbers, compared to, say, Datejusts or Submariners, but they are not rare watches. It has been discussed that Rolex are building new factories to help keep up with demand (in the future, based on growth); however, this will not mean there will be swathes of Rolex watches everywhere, and the markets/shelves are heaving with watches that are hard to get today. These production facilities will not be churning out a tonne more watches, they will be there to bring more manufacturing processes in-house, and to increase efficiencies, and maintain the same levels of quality. They could increase quantities by 10X tomorrow quite easily, but quality would suffer, and Rolex won't compromise on that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deppe
Lastly, due to the ceramic and chromalight/super luminova together with laser welding etc. the watches won’t really age, so there will be a greater supply and the watches will be in better condition in general.
|
I don't see how these things will affect the 11 ref or the 12 ref, they are both made with the same materials and same build standards. A 116 will age in the same way a 126 will.
-
Just my 2p on this topic:
I don't actually think the 116500LN white dial or black dial is going to accelerate past the 126500LN, leaving it for dust and becoming a highly sought-after, uber-collectable reference (or at least, much more than it is now). In its 7-year run they were made in fairly significant numbers; we know this from not only the relatively large amount of collectors here on this very forum but elsewhere, on socials, etc, but also with around 1000 of them on the open market (in white and black, adjusted by 10% for dealers who don't actually have them).
I think a more likely scenario is that watches, or the luxury watch market specifically, will eventually see a positive uptick, in line with the wider economy and as trophy assets become more prominent in spenders minds once more. We're not going to be seeing a major spike like the post-COVID era, but, like every other market cycle before it for trophy assets, things will definitely get back on track - at least for certain pieces, of course.
As a result, I think we will rather see more of an alignment of 116 vs. 126 values. The model where the 116 accelerates past the 126 value-wise is flawed because it does not account for overall demand increasing. Demand at ADs will continue to increase for new pieces, and demand on the secondary should increase too eventually.
Lastly - by definition there's very little reason for 116's to go nuts. As mentioned before, they are not hard to find watches, there are a lot on the market, and for things to go particularly "more collectable", there would have to be a significantly fewer of these than there are now. Taking into account more vintage Daytonas, this is certainly the case, usually, they tend to command a higher premium due to their scarcity and to Deppe's point above, quality becomes a serious factor. So many of these 116 ref watches are tucked away, stickered, untouched for a rainy day (also by dealers, no less!) - meaning, there won't be a drought of unworn 116500LN's on the market, pretty much ever.
I know some don't like this topic, so, sorry for the waffle. I for one find it fun - I enjoy markets etc and fun learning about how people choose to make their decisions