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IMHO the only way to know if the watch needs service is to have your watchmaker open and inspect it. He will be able to tell if oils are not volatilized, check it on a timehrapher, etc. Every watch lives in different conditions of usage, environmental temperature, humidity, etc. All these variables influence the service interval... Also our watches are so superbly designed that they can keep good time even with unadequate lubrication so its up to you if you want to preventively service it to avoid replacing more parts, or wait until timekeeping deteriorates but then more parts may need to be replaced.
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