Nautilus v Aquanaut Bubble Question

[The Argonaut]

Hi TRF,

In responding to a question by an OP, I started thinking about the difference between the Nautilus v Aquanaut bubbles. Is there a difference?

I think the Aquanaut and Nautilus watches are qualitatively different. Just taking the last 10 years, most of the Nautilus watches have been popular and difficult to acquire. There has always been a bubble associated with most of the models, sometimes measured in months and sometimes years, but now they are unavailable to all except buyers with strong AD relationships (and even then the wait can still run to years). Thus, there has always been a premium of most of Nautilus range, and right now it seems to be at its highest.

Most of the Aquanaut range are recent and have seen their popularity increase since release. However, unlike much of the Nautilus range, outside of the the last 2.5 years, it was not difficult to acquire a 5167/5164. Go back too early to mid 2017, and they could be picked up at MSRP without huge difficulty. Also, there was no grey market for Aquanauts. Thus, their bubble is recent.

I think the current Aquanaut bubble comes straight off the back of the Nautilus range, and in smaller part, the Rolex SS bubble. I think many genuinely want an Aquanaut, as they are great watches. Their broad popularity is steadily increasing. However, I think many more want them as a Nautilus substitute. The Aquanauts don’t have the Nautilus history behind them, nor the iconic look. I know many who consider the Aquanauts completely overrated, but don't think of the Nautilus watches in the same way.

I think the Aquanaut bubble will deflate before the Nautilus. Whether the prices return to pre 2017 is another question. Regardless, I think the Nautilus is in a new space and will always now command a higher premium. The range has become something of a status symbol, and that is not likely to change. The question is how much, based on what the rest of the economy is doing. I'm not so sure about the Aquanaut retaining a premium post deflation of the bubble. It's not a status symbol, it's not iconic, and I'm not sure ever will be.

Thoughts?

Best,
TA

[Russell996]

I don’t believe there is a fundamental difference except to agree the Nautilus bubble drove the Aquanaut bubble and yes it is more iconic. The Aquanaut bubble deflating will be first as Nautilus demand decreases and buyers realise they can get a piece and some switch from wanting and getting an Aquanaut to a Nautilus. But I don’t think the Nautilus will lag far behind - these are not rare pieces contrary to what prices suggest - all models were/are produced in the 1000’s per year and with 40+ and 20+ year history’s that is quite a lot of pieces. The deciding factor will be how long greys are prepared to sit on current large stocks without reducing prices and how many buyers who are in it for the profit start to come to market - I doubt greys will be buying new stock so it will be a private sale bonanza which in turn will drive grey prices down and the previous upward price cycle suddenly reverses. Both are great pieces at MSRP, just not 3x MSRP.
Oh course, this is pure speculation and a crystal ball would be very helpful.

[GB-man]

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

Yep, I, too, remember this being the case. I had sellers on 47th st. offering me white dial 5980s around $35K and blue slightly higher, list was around $44K I think. If you go back five years sellers online were asking barely over list for blue dial 5711s and slightly under for white. On 5th Avenue, in 2016, an AD had a white dial 5711a in the window for a few weeks before it sold.
The 5167/1a was available at most ADs, often discounted, but the 5167a had to be ordered and took 1-2 months to arrive, from my experience.

[Vetracer]

In the same way that Rolex fans tend to accumulate multiple watches in the Rolex catalogue, Patek Philippe fans do the same albeit with a significant increase in financial outlay. The fact that someone buys an Aquanaut doesn’t mean they either couldn’t afford or couldn’t get a Nautilus.

With regards to their popularity, the Aquanaut has always been admired in my books. It was always going to be deemed the little brother to the Nautilus but if you own both, you’ll know how very different the watches are despite the similar shaped bezel.

Paul McCartney has been wearing his 5165A for many, many years. I’m sure he can afford any Nautilus he wants.

[pam66]

i totally agree that all those are watches produced in large numbers and the word "rare" cannot be attached to them. the 5711A is certainly "iconic" inasmuch it it associated to what was considered a revolution in watch design.
the aquanauts are just derivatives, as wearable they might be.

[dbfagan]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

“shelf turd” love that!

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I don’t believe there is a fundamental difference except to agree the Nautilus bubble drove the Aquanaut bubble and yes it is more iconic. The Aquanaut bubble deflating will be first as Nautilus demand decreases and buyers realise they can get a piece and some switch from wanting and getting an Aquanaut to a Nautilus. But I don’t think the Nautilus will lag far behind - these are not rare pieces contrary to what prices suggest - all models were/are produced in the 1000’s per year and with 40+ and 20+ year history’s that is quite a lot of pieces. The deciding factor will be how long greys are prepared to sit on current large stocks without reducing prices and how many buyers who are in it for the profit start to come to market - I doubt greys will be buying new stock so it will be a private sale bonanza which in turn will drive grey prices down and the previous upward price cycle suddenly reverses. Both are great pieces at MSRP, just not 3x MSRP.
Oh course, this is pure speculation and a crystal ball would be very helpful.

Appreciate the thoughts. Very solid points.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

I cracked up thinking about the 5980 as a shelf turd. Brilliant expression. I should have stated blue 5711/12, as most of my watch collecting colleagues were chasing those over the years, and mostly all were successful--although some took longer than others (but none has the sorts of issues that are apparent today).

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by pam66

i totally agree that all those are watches produced in large numbers and the word "rare" cannot be attached to them. the 5711A is certainly "iconic" inasmuch it it associated to what was considered a revolution in watch design. the aquanauts are just derivatives, as wearable they might be.

Couldn't agree more. It a constant surprise that so many are willing to countenance paying 3 x MSRP for a current production SS piece.

[Watch Expert]

Give me a reason why people would buy patek sport watch at premium today.
How can there be a hype when there is no logical reason to buy one and I see that demand is near zero.

[soundserious]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

Give me a reason why people would buy patek sport watch at premium today.
How can there be a hype when there is no logical reason to buy one and I see that demand is near zero.

Agree. Buy a VC at discount. Or the GP one. Or the Lange thing. Or an Apple Watch.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by dbfagan

“shelf turd” love that!

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

I cracked up thinking about the 5980 as a shelf turd. Brilliant expression. I should have stated blue 5711/12, as most of my watch collecting colleagues were chasing those over the years, and mostly all were successful--although some took longer than others (but none has the sorts of issues that are apparent today).

It’s a common term used it beer trading groups

[Watch Expert]

My advise is if you like a time piece be patient; wait for a few months. Things will be different in 2-3 months.

You can buy things that you like, at AD pay retail new or buy used and get some discount.

This watch hype , used price over retail (current model still in production like hundreds each month ) is not sustainable; you need continuous supply multiple of morons with thick pockets which I don’t think there is any now.
Do not buy at grey dealers and pay huge crazy premium you will be badly burnt.

For example if the AD sells a time piece new at $30,000 ; the used market logically should be $25,000 or less. If the used market is $50,000 then you can smell fish. Why the AD don’t produce more and let grey dealers pocket $20,000.
The AD need to pay rents wages etc ; why AD let grey dealers earn $20,000? Why not AD produce more and have higher sales volume? To create hype as you want something you can’t get. Well that may be true for a while; it may be true for certain rare model has been discontinued ( watch maker are dead) like Patek 2499 or Rolex Daytona Paul Newman; but not for time piece that are still in artificially limited production (the watch maker still alive) and it won’t go forever.
You will be badly burnt.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

My advise is if you like a time piece be patient; wait for a few months. Things will be different in 2-3 months.

You can buy things that you like, at AD pay retail new or buy used and get some discount.

This watch hype , used price over retail (current model still in production like hundreds each month ) is not sustainable; you need continuous supply multiple of morons with thick pockets which I don’t think there is any now.
Do not buy at grey dealers and pay huge crazy premium you will be badly burnt.

For example if the AD sells a time piece new at $30,000 ; the used market logically should be $25,000 or less. If the used market is $50,000 then you can smell fish. Why the AD don’t produce more and let grey dealers pocket $20,000. The AD need to pay rents wages etc ; why AD let grey dealers earn $20,000? Why not AD produce more and have higher sales volume? To create hype as you want something you can’t get. Well that may be true for a while; it may be true for certain rare model has been discontinued ( watch maker are dead) like Patek 2499 or Rolex Daytona Paul Newman; but not for time piece that are still in artificially limited production (the watch maker still alive) and it won’t go forever. You will be badly burnt.

"Multiple morons." Brilliant. Fear not. My target is this year. If it happens great; if it doesn't, well there's nothing I can do and I'll keep in the hunt for 2021. I'm in no rush. I was just curious as to whether TRFers thought there was any bubble differences.

[The Argonaut]

We've had "shelf turds" and "multiple morons" so far. Some classic expressions.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have no idea what you’re talking about as nautilus were readily available collecting dust in cases (blue 5711 aside) until around 2017 maybe.

The 5980 was the biggest shelf turd of them all right alongside the 5726 and even 5712 was in cases.

This ^^

No one wanted the thicker more complicated Nautiluses. The 5726/1A was a drag. The 5980 was a paperweight. Even when the 5990 was announced there were groans heard amongst ADs because it's super thick.

Only the Blue 5711/1A ever really sold decently, and even then you could get one with a short wait.

Something happened, and I can't figure out what it is. What triggered the hype?

[jon_jon]

I remember a few months after the 5980/1A was discontinued, there was an AD that had 3 of them on their window display (3 different dial colors).

I purchased my first and only Nautilus 10+ years ago during "the recession" at quite a discount.

There is definitely a Nautilus bubble. We will see how long it will last.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

I remember a few months after the 5980/1A was discontinued, there was an AD that had 3 of them on their window display (3 different dial colors).

Yup!

My goodness. That was quite an entertaining time, in retrospect.

I, too, once saw an AD with two 5980/1A's in their window. If I recall the conversation correctly, I think they sat for a good 6+ months before I actually came by.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

This ^^

No one wanted the thicker more complicated Nautiluses. The 5726/1A was a drag. The 5980 was a paperweight. Even when the 5990 was announced there were groans heard amongst ADs because it's super thick.

Only the Blue 5711/1A ever really sold decently, and even then you could get one with a short wait.

Something happened, and I can't figure out what it is. What triggered the hype?

Instagram. The release of the 116500 which had brands subsequently trying to emulate the artificial scarcity model. Rappers some of which I’m not convinced weren’t paid product advertising.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Something happened, and I can't figure out what it is. What triggered the hype?

Hey GL, I was talking to a friend today, and he asked me this very question. What are your thoughts on what's behind the hype beyond speculators and social media?

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Instagram. The release of the 116500 which had brands subsequently trying to emulate the artificial scarcity model. Rappers some of which I’m not convinced weren’t paid product advertising.

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Hey GL, I was talking to a friend today, and he asked me this very question. What are your thoughts on what's behind the hype beyond speculators and social media?

Honestly, I do agree that it's been social media fueled. Instagram was a thing back in 2017, but not nearly as widespread as it is now, especially not in terms of people showing off luxuries.

That said, much of what I see on IG is people faking it, and it's tough to see it converting into a $30k purchase frequently enough to make this dramatic of a difference in the market values.

I still contend that the social media uptick caused speculators to start hoarding. When I see posts like these:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7yFQGCglAr/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7pAPE_AOax/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7MroVRgh8g/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7ItdCqgcRN/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B6wW64Vg5Md/

It's hard to see the market values as caused by anything else other than grey market hoarding / market cornering triggered by speculation triggered by a massive uptick in social media coverage as more and more people started using social media to show off and prop themselves up. It happens in unregulated illiquid markets. We learn this stuff in Econ 101 or something. :)

[GreenLantern]

Another lovely example:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B8ODYwtAoIT/

Bitter because I missed out on getting one of these brand new from my AD back in the day. :(

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Honestly, I do agree that it's been social media fueled. Instagram was a thing back in 2017, but not nearly as widespread as it is now, especially not in terms of people showing off luxuries.

That said, much of what I see on IG is people faking it, and it's tough to see it converting into a $30k purchase frequently enough to make this dramatic of a difference in the market values.

I still contend that the social media uptick caused speculators to start hoarding. When I see posts like these:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7yFQGCglAr/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7pAPE_AOax/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7MroVRgh8g/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7ItdCqgcRN/

https://www.instagram.com/p/B6wW64Vg5Md/

It's hard to see the market values as caused by anything else other than grey market hoarding / market cornering triggered by speculation triggered by a massive uptick in social media coverage as more and more people started using social media to show off and prop themselves up. It happens in unregulated illiquid markets. We learn this stuff in Econ 101 or something. :)

Bloody hellfire. Thanks GL, that's crazy. I don't use any social media, so don't track what the latest and greatest crazes are. Yes, it's been about 800 years since I did Econ 101, but that rings more than a few bells.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Bloody hellfire. Thanks GL, that's crazy. I don't use any social media, so don't track what the latest and greatest crazes are. Yes, it's been about 800 years since I did Econ 101, but that rings more than a few bells.

Indeed.

I mean, my goodness, how could I see pics like that from (reputable, in most cases) grey market dealers and not think it's speculative hoarding to manipulate market prices?

Again, to those who'll call me out on this... I acknowledge that this is an unregulated market, so it's not "illegal" to practice price manipulation. Doesn't change the fact that it happens, and it hurts actual collectors / people who would actually wear these watches, which in turn I'd argue hurts the brand.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Another lovely example:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B8ODYwtAoIT/

Bitter because I missed out on getting one of these brand new from my AD back in the day. :(

Impressive. I guess if one sees these on instagram regularly, and one wants to keep up with the Jones and Janes, you have to buy in. I didn't realize that so many of Nautilus range was so easy to pick up in years past (love the "shelf turd" expression.). All of my colleagues were only targeting blue dial 5711/12s, and all got one with a modest amount of waiting. Its never been a watch I've followed, although I really like the 5712G. The 5167/64 I have followed. Strange world we inhabit.

Unless and until a major economic event occurs, or something big shifts the focus on social media, nothing will change. Maybe a year of Coronavirus could break the model? Maybe, new toys from Baselworld will cause the mob to chase the next new wave. It'll be interesting to see what this year brings.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I mean, my goodness, how could I see pics like that from (reputable, in most cases) grey market dealers and not think it's speculative hoarding to manipulate market prices? Again, to those who'll call me out on this... I acknowledge that this is an unregulated market, so it's not "illegal" to practice price manipulation. Doesn't change the fact that it happens, and it hurts actual collectors / people who would actually wear these watches, which in turn I'd argue hurts the brand.

With you all the way. I've never seen such photos. If I was at Rolex, I'd want to do something about it. Yes, it lifts their profile in the short term, but drives many away over the longer.

[Ichiran]

I hope the prices of all Nautilus and Aquanaut fall below MSRP so we don't have to see such expert threads on bubbles anymore.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I hope the prices of all Nautilus and Aquanaut fall below MSRP so we don't have to see such expert threads on bubbles anymore.

I said the same thing after tulip mania. Boy those were some good times!

[martinr]

The must have watches are hype driven by social media, Instagram pictures etc. If you want to be a cool dude, get girls, be part of the scene, you need a hype driven watch. It proves you’re “the man”. It’s like bottle service at a club, why would anyone in their right mind pay $1000 for a a thirty dollar bottle of vodka? It’s to impress. And you have to have a picture to post on Instagram or Facebook.