Rolex Production... do you wait or pay grey prices now for a watch

[Frnkbonz]

Im looking to get a daytona on an oyster strap (I purchase in the 2nd market). My question relates to covid. Since the production stopped for months at Rolex, do you think they will try to ramp up next year at all to meet the demand? The watch I saw on the 2nd market was 4k less than it is now in a few months span along with a lot of other watches. Do you think the market will correct itself once more watches hit the market next year or do you get the watch now because the market prices will just increase because Rolex will just maintain their normal production? TIA

[Chopped54]

If you want a Daytona more or less have to go grey. Rolex is not going to ramp up production and even if they did it would still not meet demand for the Daytona. And there is no market correction, it just goes up....

[TimeAZ]

Pay the grey, get it today.
Wait for MSRP, it will never be.

[uhren917]

People just cannot get it through their skulls.

Rolex is NOT to going to meet demand and will not divulge production numbers. This is luxury item.

Let the guessing games commence.

[jlovda]

If prices drop it will be very slowly because 1) they probably paid a lot for the inventory and 2) none would want to be the first to do it. If the watches sell at these peak levels at a slow but steady rate, they will never go down..unless some new Instagram toy gets people going in a different direction or financial markets really collapse.

[Harry-57]

When do you want it? How much do you want it?

[Frnkbonz]

2nd market has been crazy due to covid. Literally the watch im looking at was selling 4-5k cheaper 2-3 months ago. Its not like I need the watch today, but I dont want to kick myself later when I could get the watch at a 2k premium vs a 6k premium next year (speculation). It can might as well correct itself and go back to the prices it next year.

[1William]

Then it is about the money and not the watch? Get the best deal you can from a Trusted Seller and pay and enjoy the watch. If it goes down then that is fine unless you want to sell. If it goes up then you are good also. Get off the bench and get in the game before you spend another 6-10k for a watch you could have had for less.

[101031-28]

Hard to say. Fortunately my collection is at a point where waiting is no big deal for me. How bad do you want it? Do you have other pieces that make you happy? Myself, if I want something bad and there is no certainty in sight, I get it and start enjoying now rather than later (or never)

[JSolution]

I understand and it’s pretty much your guess. I had the same dilemma a couple years ago when I really started to like watches, and decided to buy pretty much all of the ones I like as I could see the prices really going up ,and I made my own decision that they were going to continue to do so and I didn’t want to be paying more down the line. If I were to buy the same watches today, I would pay around £40,000 more.

So really is a guess but my guess is they will continue to go up. Just buy it now!

[L_S_SHOE]

I can’t rationalize being taken advantage of, so personally, no, I would not go Grey for a modern Rolex.


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[Frnkbonz]

Originally Posted by 1William

Then it is about the money and not the watch? Get the best deal you can from a Trusted Seller and pay and enjoy the watch. If it goes down then that is fine unless you want to sell. If it goes up then you are good also. Get off the bench and get in the game before you spend another 6-10k for a watch you could have had for less.

Its a little bit of both.... seeing how the price was 2 months ago makes me think there is a bubble somewhere. I purchased a patek recently and literally seen the same watch go up for 3k less a week later. At least at MSRP you know what the price is. 2nd market is all guess work to when is the best time to get it.

[Frnkbonz]

Originally Posted by L_S_SHOE

I can’t rationalize being taken advantage of, so personally, no, I would not go Grey for a modern Rolex.


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Well my collection I limited myself to 10 watches and I have 1
Spot open. Im not one of those guys who wants to butter an AD to purchase a watch or buy a lot of items that I really do not want. I like watches, but not some super collector. Grey is the better play for me.

[ScottishRolex]

Originally Posted by Frnkbonz

Im looking to get a daytona on an oyster strap (I purchase in the 2nd market). My question relates to covid. Since the production stopped for months at Rolex, do you think they will try to ramp up next year at all to meet the demand? The watch I saw on the 2nd market was 4k less than it is now in a few months span along with a lot of other watches. Do you think the market will correct itself once more watches hit the market next year or do you get the watch now because the market prices will just increase because Rolex will just maintain their normal production? TIA

Sent you a Pm. I may be able to help.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by TimeAZ

Pay the grey, get it today.
Wait for MSRP, it will never be.

Nice!

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by Frnkbonz

Its a little bit of both.... seeing how the price was 2 months ago makes me think there is a bubble somewhere. I purchased a patek recently and literally seen the same watch go up for 3k less a week later. At least at MSRP you know what the price is. 2nd market is all guess work to when is the best time to get it.

'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.'

[teck21]

Did production really stop at Rolex? Is there a verifiable source of this information?


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[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by L_S_SHOE

I can’t rationalize being taken advantage of, so personally, no, I would not go Grey for a modern Rolex.


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You mean a modern hot Rolex...

Greys still sell a lot of modern references for less than MSRP

[L_S_SHOE]

Originally Posted by Frnkbonz

Well my collection I limited myself to 10 watches and I have 1
Spot open. Im not one of those guys who wants to butter an AD to purchase a watch or buy a lot of items that I really do not want. I like watches, but not some super collector. Grey is the better play for me.

A lot of people do feel that way, but remember, it’s a modern Rolex. It’s not vintage. It’s not particularly special or unique. It’s just popular. The sports models have been difficult to acquire in only the last 3 to 4 years, and that’s principally because a lot of product gets shunted to non-ADs, like the Greys. So, in my mind, the value doesn’t exist to support the extra cost.


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[Frnkbonz]

Originally Posted by L_S_SHOE

A lot of people do feel that way, but remember, it’s a modern Rolex. It’s not vintage. It’s not particularly special or unique. It’s just popular. The sports models have been difficult to acquire in only the last 3 to 4 years, and that’s principally because a lot of product gets shunted to non-ADs, like the Greys. So, in my mind, the value doesn’t exist to support the extra cost.


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The piece im looking at is a gold PN on an OF strap and the last 2-3 months, the price was below MSRP.

[Rado63]

Originally Posted by Frnkbonz

Im looking to get a daytona on an oyster strap (I purchase in the 2nd market). My question relates to covid. Since the production stopped for months at Rolex, do you think they will try to ramp up next year at all to meet the demand? The watch I saw on the 2nd market was 4k less than it is now in a few months span along with a lot of other watches. Do you think the market will correct itself once more watches hit the market next year or do you get the watch now because the market prices will just increase because Rolex will just maintain their normal production? TIA

If you are in the NY area prices will be all over the place. Mostly due to lack of inventory out there this year. No I don't believe Rolex will ramp up production. They would rather loose smaller ADS. If you want an oyster flex Daytona if you visit enough AD's around you someone has one for you at retail it may not be your first choice of metal, maybe you want everose and they have YG, maybe you want black subdials and they have champagne subdials. Doubtful prices will go down if the world wide economy returns to full speed, then you will wish you purchased yesterday.

[Smobews]

I paid gray for one ($1K over MSRP+tax) and on AD list for second. I now have the luxury of time to wait because I can enjoy the first one.

[911991]

Only for a reasonable amount over MSRP, only you can decide what that amount is...

[Frnkbonz]

Originally Posted by 911991

Only for a reasonable amount over MSRP, only you can decide what that amount is...

Yea its only 2k right now, I guess its one of those I missed the boat.

[bombardior]

to everyone who claims it will never go back to msrp prices, and use the argument "luxury" item, i genuinely wonder what is different now from like, let's say 2015 when they were not so heavily overpriced and may even have some discounts from grey?

what happened since then?

did rolex decrease their supply significantly? did demand increase significantly since then (why did it if that's the case)? i mean let's face it, rolex was as much as a luxury item back in 2015 as it is now, so the luxury item argument doens't work. something else must have changed.

[rolexonlywatch]

Buy it in grey market if the the price is below msrp


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[LeftHookLacey]

I'm looking for a 39mm Explorer and am willing to pay the grey, but Ican't find one in Canada. Don't want to pay duty though.

I will most likely buy one in teh US once I'm there again when the border opens.

[Henrimontgomery]

Originally Posted by bombardior

to everyone who claims it will never go back to msrp prices, and use the argument "luxury" item, i genuinely wonder what is different now from like, let's say 2015 when they were not so heavily overpriced and may even have some discounts from grey?

what happened since then?

did rolex decrease their supply significantly? did demand increase significantly since then (why did it if that's the case)? i mean let's face it, rolex was as much as a luxury item back in 2015 as it is now, so the luxury item argument doens't work. something else must have changed.

Instagram happened.

Now, more and more people want a Rolex to show off their influencer and successful social life with signaling luxury items.

[Frnkbonz]

Originally Posted by bombardior

to everyone who claims it will never go back to msrp prices, and use the argument "luxury" item, i genuinely wonder what is different now from like, let's say 2015 when they were not so heavily overpriced and may even have some discounts from grey?

what happened since then?

did rolex decrease their supply significantly? did demand increase significantly since then (why did it if that's the case)? i mean let's face it, rolex was as much as a luxury item back in 2015 as it is now, so the luxury item argument doens't work. something else must have changed.

Yes...the economy has everything to do with it. Economy good... demand goes up along with prices. Economy is bad.... supply is high and demand is low. Thats the main difference between 2015 and now. What covid did was create a supply shortage hence the crazy increase in prices the last few months.

[bleighs]

I would add that the Chinese market got interested in it. I don't remember when it became super popular in China but it should be around that time. When travel starts up again watch out imo.