Predictions…

[SFBAY]

How long (if ever) before you can once again walk into an AD and purchase a Rolex? Will those days ever return?

[Tim Plains]

It would be nice if you could be more specific with models because people sometimes do walk in and find some for sale.

[996marty]

It would seem in some areas of the world some are available…..ish but in others it would seem it’s business as usual

[Calatrava r]

I just walked into an AD a few weeks back and bought a Datejust. Total surprise it was in the case and available.

[Duey]

When you buy a watch from an AD and you can't turn around and sell it for more than you paid for it, aka you loose money.

That's when it will happen - It's that simple

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by Duey

When you buy a watch from an AD and you can't turn around and sell it for more than you paid for it, aka you loose money.

That's when it will happen - It's that simple

I understand the concept. Question is will that happen ever again?

[APWorldTour]

Originally Posted by Duey

When you buy a watch from an AD and you can't turn around and sell it for more than you paid for it, aka you loose money.

That's when it will happen - It's that simple

Not necessarily true, just look at AP and Patek, many models where you instantly lose and still not available on walk in.


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[77T]

I’d hate to think of the cataclysmic upheaval that would return a balance to the supply/demand curve at ADs…

Last time it was the meltdown of 2008.

Surely, it would be on that scale or worse. Pandemics done do it - we now know that.


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[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by 77T

I’d hate to think of the cataclysmic upheaval that would return a balance to the supply/demand curve at ADs…

Last time it was the meltdown of 2008.

Surely, it would be on that scale or worse. Pandemics done do it - we now know that.


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I think 6 years ago you could walk into an AD and buy a sub or GMT. My local AD said they used to have 5+ Subs in their safe at any given time.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by 77T

I’d hate to think of the cataclysmic upheaval that would return a balance to the supply/demand curve at ADs…

Last time it was the meltdown of 2008.

Surely, it would be on that scale or worse. Pandemics done do it - we now know that.


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Perhaps younger generations will not wish for mechanical Rolex watches and therefore the market corrects?

[schluterc]

They are here. You can walk into some and buy a used one for 30-50% more then the price of a new one they don’t have or won’t sell you.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

I understand the concept. Question is will that happen ever again?

Happening all the time. Buy a new Rolex watch from an AD which is selling used (grey) at MSRP or just above, which is most models at this point and see what you can sell it to a used/grey dealer for. You will lose money as the used watch dealers are not doing this stuff for free. They need to pay overhead, employees and make a living.

[SS Oyster]

Depends on the watch.

The more relevant question might be -
How long until you can walk into a Rolex AD and buy ANY catalogue watch?

Answer - never going to happen.


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[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Happening all the time. Buy a new Rolex watch from an AD which is selling used (grey) at MSRP or just above, which is most models at this point and see what you can sell it to a used/grey dealer for. You will lose money as the used watch dealers are not doing this stuff for free. They need to pay overhead, employees and make a living.

I’m not referring to that type of buyer/seller

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

Depends on the watch.

The more relevant question might be -
How long until you can walk into a Rolex AD and buy ANY catalogue watch?

Answer - never going to happen.


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I appreciate your take but believe it’ll happen in about 10 years.

[Tylerlsu2008]

Originally Posted by 77T

I’d hate to think of the cataclysmic upheaval that would return a balance to the supply/demand curve at ADs…

Last time it was the meltdown of 2008.

Surely, it would be on that scale or worse. Pandemics done do it - we now know that.

I'm not so sure, just as quick as it melted up, it can melt down.

It may be a slow melting ice cube, but a melting one nonetheless. My thesis is still way to many people that don't actually like watches, got into watches. That demand eventually wears off.

I think of it like F1 -- I love auto racing, but F1 is "cool" now. Blame Drive to Survive (which I have never watched) and the massive amount of celebrities in the paddock now that probably have no idea who people like Keke Rosberg, Emerson Fittapaldi, Nigel Mansel, etc are. We saw this in NASCAR -- a major rise and subsequent fall.

[amh]

Depends.

- PM: You can do that today
- TT: We're almost there, certainly for a Datejust
- SS: This will be hyped/milked for years (AD safes fully stocked but few released)

Sales of marked-up jewelry have never been better so don't expect ADs to voluntarily dial back the pain. Declining street prices will eventually force ADs to acquiesce.

[Rolexken]

Many ADs have some PM and TT pieces in the window looking for a buyer and I posted previously about a SS DJ41 for sale - the first I’ve seen for years.

As others have said above the models that do not have the ability to be flipped for an instant profit will be ones for sale. Track grey prices…..

[slide13]

Things seem to be swinging in that direction already and I don't think it'll take as long as some think. It was only 6 years ago where just about any SS sport model outside the Daytona was readily available.

I've relayed this before but it was 2017 when I turned down a 116610LV because the AD wouldn't discount. Went to another where I got to look at two different 114060s they had in stock, pick the one I wanted, and when I asked for a 20% discount they said no but they could do 15% for me.

The current state of things is not the norm, it's a weird blip and it seems like we're just now starting to come out of it.

I think, based purely on personal hunch, that within two years many SS sport models will be readily available. The Daytona, Sub LV, and BLRO....probably not....but a black Sub/Sub Date or BLNR or something in the Explorer range I think will be.

I do think concerns over the 32xx movement will have a part in this. It's given me pause. I turned down an Explorer II and a DJ41 in part because of those concerns. I did not pass on a 126610LN however, the Sub has always been THE watch for me and they fixed all my issues with the change to the 12xxxx versions so I decided it was worth the risk with the movement. But it still had an effect overall, otherwise I very likely would have take one of those other two I had previously been offered.

[LndLord]

here we go again

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by LndLord

here we go again

You do realize you’re not required to respond? Just pass if you’re disinterested.

[Edfrozen]

If it's within Rolex's power , why in the world would they want their watches available at a discount at a dealer? . That is suicide
Keep the hype . Keep lack of availability

[summit]

Originally Posted by slide13

Things seem to be swinging in that direction already and I don't think it'll take as long as some think…

I do think concerns over the 32xx movement will have a part in this. It's given me pause. I turned down an Explorer II and a DJ41 in part because of those concerns. I did not pass on a 126610LN however, the Sub has always been THE watch for me and they fixed all my issues with the change to the 12xxxx versions so I decided it was worth the risk with the movement. But it still had an effect overall, otherwise I very likely would have take one of those other two I had previously been offered.

I’m new but if every thread here gets turned into a discussion about the 32.. movements then can’t see myself coming very often. Extremely tiresome.

[Rolexken]

Originally Posted by summit

I’m new but if every thread here gets turned into a discussion about the 32.. movements then can’t see myself coming very often. Extremely tiresome.

Don’t go you’ll be sorely missed…..

[Mr Package]

Originally Posted by Edfrozen

If it's within Rolex's power , why in the world would they want their watches available at a discount at a dealer? . That is suicide
Keep the hype . Keep lack of availability

They have done everything they could to keep the hype going over the past 6 months! For example by discontinuing John Mayor Daytona or releasing the new Daytona and celebration dial OP; so far it's not working (JMD is now lower than just prior to its discontinuation).

Rolex is not Hermes, AP or Patek. They produce north of 1 million watches per year. I don't think they can't sustain this artificial scarcity forever!

The market is bigger than anyone!

[kkqd1337]

i am wondering what Rolex are planning about price increases given current high inflation

[slide13]

Originally Posted by summit

I’m new but if every thread here gets turned into a discussion about the 32.. movements then can’t see myself coming very often. Extremely tiresome.

I don't think that's happening but I do think it has some potential bearing on the topic of discussion here.

If you're already finding it tiresome then perhaps you should move on. Somehow we'll find a way to manage without you I'm sure.

[Afterglow]

The direction Rolex has taken, without assesing any blame, has caused me to spend my money elsewhere. I'm rocking a SS Blancpain Fifty Fathoms that is, in my opinion, superior to the Submariner. For those that will chime in about resale value, I have no interest in selling. And I have owned just about every SS Rolex in the catalouge.

[Rolexken]

https://youtu.be/bOBSdY3TPE4 These are the models which will hit the AD windows looking for buyers soon.

[Gearjockey]

I brought my Mom into Harrod’s of London today to ask about a SS 36 DJ (any color/style) availability for her and they politely told us they didn’t have any for sale and they didn’t know when they would be in stock for purchase again. I was expecting this response. My Mom was quite perplexed, however. They suggested we look in our hometown. Worth a shot I guess.