Average Wait time for Nautilus

[seayum]

Wondering if there are any best practices that can be followed to get Nautilus faster? I know spending money with AD helps but are there any type of models that will help get ahead in the list?

[GreenLantern]

Average wait time depends on model and AD. Some are 8 years, some are 1 year.

Buying other "harder to sell" models helps only because it proves you aren't a flipper. Like any business, an AD wants repeat customers for the long term.

Other than this, read up on the forums, there's a ton of knowledge out there.

[Calatrava r]

After market prices are softening at the moment. Why not buy one used for the premium rather than spending money on watches you really do not want to maybe get a Nautilus from an AD on an imaginary list.

[soundserious]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

After market prices are softening at the moment. Why not buy one used for the premium rather than spending money on watches you really do not want to maybe get a Nautilus from an AD on an imaginary list.

Actual good advice.

[ts3]

If you are after one of the hotter pieces, say 5711 or 5712 blue, going preowned is the easiest and likely also most economical way. As the market is softening I'd give it 6-12 months though. Asking prices haven't dropped substantially yet but turnover has come close to a standstill as far as I can see...

[Fat_ninja]

Should slow play it. Don’t let the AD’s tell u demand is on fire... slowing down a lot

Personally. I’d just sit tight till end of year... China is going through a little bit of a cold at the moment

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Should slow play it. Don’t let the AD’s tell u demand is on fire... slowing down a lot

Personally. I’d just sit tight till end of year... China is going through a little bit of a cold at the moment

What’s your assessment of what China’s “cold” will do to PP SS prices? Do you think they’ll come down further? I wonder how this will impact Rolex also. I think the Rolex and PP SS bubbles are definitely linked, but they are quite different.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

What’s your assessment of what China’s “cold” will do to PP SS prices? Do you think they’ll come down further? I wonder how this will impact Rolex also. I think the Rolex and PP SS bubbles are definitely linked, but they are quite different.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think they will come down. I believe this COULD be a O shit black swan. I was actually waiting for it to come through when the HK protest spiked but little did I expect China not to care...

This is a black swan because it was out of left field and also difficult to analyze. If you guys thought Us housing and Lehman was bad. Take China and replace that event. It’ll hit China more than the US tho. I could be wrong. Who knows


Everything in the the capital system is underwritten by price assumptions and... this event will hit GDP and currency and likely export inflation across the world.


To simplify it for my non finance friends... China currency is about to devalue... for many reasons... but a devalued yuan means less buying power... ie Chinese have less money. Forget everything else I rambled on about.


If I could short watches I would lol
Someone underwrite me get me some notional size

[qrc36]

I agree with the Ninja ... my AD (in Hong Kong) says there have been "almost zero sales" for the past week. No deliveries. No locals, no tourists. Nobody entering the store for hours.

And last week was the week after Chinese New Year - when historically the shelves (on the PP and Rolex side of my AD) would be completely cleared out by tourists from China.

They predict things will be bad, very very bad in HK for the months to come, as locals aren't going out and tourists aren't coming in.

[Naples09]

Booking airfare now for HK to pick up a 5167 At retail. Lol

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I think they will come down. I believe this COULD be a O shit black swan. I was actually waiting for it to come through when the HK protest spiked but little did I expect China not to care...

This is a black swan because it was out of left field and also difficult to analyze. If you guys thought Us housing and Lehman was bad. Take China and replace that event. It’ll hit China more than the US tho. I could be wrong. Who knows


Everything in the the capital system is underwritten by price assumptions and... this event will hit GDP and currency and likely export inflation across the world.


To simplify it for my non finance friends... China currency is about to devalue... for many reasons... but a devalued yuan means less buying power... ie Chinese have less money. Forget everything else I rambled on about.


If I could short watches I would lol
Someone underwrite me get me some notional size

Taleb is great , and yes u have right , worst things strat slowly growing in yor eyesight but u just don t care in that particular moment ....

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I think they will come down. I believe this COULD be a O shit black swan. I was actually waiting for it to come through when the HK protest spiked but little did I expect China not to care...

This is a black swan because it was out of left field and also difficult to analyze. If you guys thought Us housing and Lehman was bad. Take China and replace that event. It’ll hit China more than the US tho. I could be wrong. Who knows

Everything in the the capital system is underwritten by price assumptions and... this event will hit GDP and currency and likely export inflation across the world.

To simplify it for my non finance friends... China currency is about to devalue... for many reasons... but a devalued yuan means less buying power... ie Chinese have less money. Forget everything else I rambled on about.

If I could short watches I would lol
Someone underwrite me get me some notional size

Appreciated. Very interesting. It'll be interesting to see if this is a blip which self corrects in six months, is a slightly bigger blip that corrects in 12, or is your black swan and an order of magnitude bigger.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Passionata

Taleb is great , and yes u have right , worst things strat slowly growing in yor eyesight but u just don t care in that particular moment ....

I speak chinglish but for the life of me I have no idea what u are saying lol

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I speak chinglish but for the life of me I have no idea what u are saying lol

Do you see this effecting allocations for the year? I would think that Rolex and PP especially would look to move more stock to the U.S. and EU for the first half of the year and see where the situation moves beyond that.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Do you see this effecting allocations for the year? I would think that Rolex and PP especially would look to move more stock to the U.S. and EU for the first half of the year and see where the situation moves beyond that.

Bro it’s going to affect everything. Including RM

RM Patek, AP Rolex.


Do urself a favor everyone turn on Bloomberg tonight and see how their stock market opens...


Btw. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.

[WatchLurv]

Streets are deserted in Hong Kong. A lot of people have been ordered to work from home during this outbreak.

I'm going to make my round with business card next weekend to all shops.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I think they will come down. I believe this COULD be a O shit black swan. I was actually waiting for it to come through when the HK protest spiked but little did I expect China not to care...

This is a black swan because it was out of left field and also difficult to analyze. If you guys thought Us housing and Lehman was bad. Take China and replace that event. It’ll hit China more than the US tho. I could be wrong. Who knows


Everything in the the capital system is underwritten by price assumptions and... this event will hit GDP and currency and likely export inflation across the world.


To simplify it for my non finance friends... China currency is about to devalue... for many reasons... but a devalued yuan means less buying power... ie Chinese have less money. Forget everything else I rambled on about.


If I could short watches I would lol
Someone underwrite me get me some notional size

I get everything but the "export inflation" part. Wouldn't it export deflation?

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Bro it’s going to affect everything. Including RM

RM Patek, AP Rolex.


Do urself a favor everyone turn on Bloomberg tonight and see how their stock market opens...


Btw. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.

I am rather going to watch some football tonight and I'm single-tasking, so cannot split my attention.

Didn't get the exporting inflation idea either...

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Streets are deserted in Hong Kong. A lot of people have been ordered to work from home during this outbreak.

I'm going to make my round with business card next weekend to all shops.

I work in the shipping and logistics industry and we got an email last week saying all business travel to China is banned effective immediately. I imagine a lot of other companies are doing the same.

[Kittayos]

Patek can also reduce supply to stabilize the current market. I'm sure they are monitoring the situation closely. The sentiments are just bad to buy luxury items for now.

The first 6 months of this fiscal year will be slow. If things go back to normalcy quickly, demand will move along automatically.

[soundserious]

In times of uncertainty people move toward safe havens. We can all agree on that.

Stainless Patek (and Rolex) is not unlike gold in this regard. There’s even a precedent for this happening with Rolex during times of high inflation. Some people would rather hold fine Swiss wristwatches as a store of wealth rather than a handful of worthless paper during trying times.

The idea that problems in HK and China will devalue high end watches on face seems reasonable, but I’d say there’s just as good a chance that people will cling even tighter to assets that are globally transferable.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I get everything but the "export inflation" part. Wouldn't it export deflation?

Sorry meant export deflation. Good catch. This is TRF lol. I don’t check my words lol

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by ts3

I am rather going to watch some football tonight and I'm single-tasking, so cannot split my attention.

Didn't get the exporting inflation idea either...

Deflation my typo. U got the gist

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

Patek can also reduce supply to stabilize the current market. I'm sure they are monitoring the situation closely. The sentiments are just bad to buy luxury items for now.

The first 6 months of this fiscal year will be slow. If things go back to normalcy quickly, demand will move along automatically.

We are not talking slow bro. We are talking collapse in 1Q COLLAPSE.

They can cut all they want. Not going to help... maybe we can get back to me getting some proper ass kissing

[BamaHammer]

Patek is opening the flood gates before Basel and Nautilus's will get delivered in numbers! If you are on the list now you will soon have your watch, can't promise the color though, but beggars can't be choosers.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by BamaHammer

Patek is opening the flood gates before Basel and Nautilus's will get delivered in numbers! If you are on the list now you will soon have your watch, can't promise the color though, but beggars can't be choosers.

Source? How do you know this?

[benlee]

Originally Posted by qrc36

I agree with the Ninja ... my AD (in Hong Kong) says there have been "almost zero sales" for the past week. No deliveries. No locals, no tourists. Nobody entering the store for hours.

And last week was the week after Chinese New Year - when historically the shelves (on the PP and Rolex side of my AD) would be completely cleared out by tourists from China.

They predict things will be bad, very very bad in HK for the months to come, as locals aren't going out and tourists aren't coming in.

I was told the same thing by my Hong Kong AD as well. He has not sold a single watch in the past week and that is simply unprecedented.

[LordNantucket]

OP, take things slow. I’m in agreement with Fat Ninja that the China situation could definitely soften prices on these super hyped pieces. Chinese businesses will continue to struggle after CNY as something as simple as restarting factories will be affected due to restrictions on labour flows.

[qrc36]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Streets are deserted in Hong Kong. A lot of people have been ordered to work from home during this outbreak.

I'm going to make my round with business card next weekend to all shops.

I think this is the time to visit an AD in HK, buy 1 or 2 unsold dress watches, and ask to be placed on list for Nautilus/Aquanaut.

There will still be lots of locals waiting and "on the list" but you might get bumped up if you buy some unsold watches right now.

Note however that you'll still need a HK local business card and the background checks still apply. No chance getting one if you're not living here. The Patek distributor here does not allow sales to non-locals.

[Kittayos]

Demand in my local market is very strong also. Price is rising a bit this month also in grey market. Let's assume Nautilus and Aquanaut stand for 20% of the total production out of 60k. That leaves us to 12k pieces per annum. I don't see how demand will soften even if zero Chinese people afford to buy a single piece and in reality it's impossible. I just don't see how this will collapse.

Things will come back up in q3. Perhaps, not a bad time to buy now, just my 2 cents.