Another "My AD Said" On Current SS Supply

[ALF61]

He is actually a fairly credible guy. I was first in line for the BLRO which he received and I picked up in October. He offered me a Batman in late 2017 which I declined wanting to wait for the BLRO and he said not to worry, he always received one every four months or so so I would get the next one. That never happenned he did not get any in 2018. So now he got his last order and was surprised to find NONE of the SS orders, though he did get some TT.

What impacted me the most is he issued me a fair warning that things in 2019 were going to be the tightest we have ever seen, even more than 2017 and 2018. He told me to consider myself lucky to have the BLRO (to which I agreed), as he thought he would not be receiving any during the year.

I feel ADs now are better qualified than ever to sort of predict what will happen in the near future. As I understand, they talk to a rep in the area who is very well versed on orders and fulfillments. Obviously this feedback is what I am getting now.

My two cents on SS supply.

[tyler1980]

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

[42itus]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

I'm with you on this. I'm sure OP has a really good relationship with his AD, but most of us in sales (and to some degree we are all in sales in most facets of our lives) would manage the situation in a similar way. My SA is a little more blunt where he will tell me what he's seen come in and that he's trying his best for me. I'm not a VVVIP, I've "only" spent about 100K USD with them. But yeah, he will tell me that I'm a VIP and that he will get me whatever I want, but it will take time.

[dkg1616]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

Agree with this statement...my AD said have only gotten one blue skydweller... they are one of the largest dealers if not the in Ohio

[AK797]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

And not just the big spenders but the ADs who have the most big spenders will be getting better allocations too, so altho supply will not have changed which ADs get stock most certainly has been, and those with lots of whales or who have carelessly sold to flippers will be favoured and punished.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

Your thoughts are normal but believe me he is telling the truth. He is not a big AD so yes his sales are not that big, but the rep is fairly large for the area.

[Robertolewis]

I got the same talk from my guy who has always been fair and pretty accurate. He said, if you sell pieces, you better get good money because he will not be able to get them again any time soon...
For what it is worth and judging by his display case and the dealers around Philly, I have no reason to not believe him.

[ArtNouveau]

I’m sorry but not believing the first BLRO in October story, or even more so the no BLNR’s for 2018. If he’s really getting that little inventory, I’m surprised he’s still an AD.

PS: you were waiting for the BLRO in late 2017 when it wasn’t announced until March 2018?

[Paul_I]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I’m sorry but not believing the first BLRO in October story, or even more so the no BLNR’s for 2018. If he’s really getting that little inventory, I’m surprised he’s still an AD.

The few I visit have told me they are struggling for this reason exactly. They are adjusting by trying to sell other brands to new potential Rolex customers, i.e. customers walking in for some hard to get piece that have no history and can be sold something else.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by Paul_I

The few I visit have told me they are struggling for this reason exactly. They are adjusting by trying to sell other brands to new potential Rolex customers, i.e. customers walking in for some hard to get piece that have no history and can be sold something else.

Then again he got several Tudor Pepsis all at once !

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I’m sorry but not believing the first BLRO in October story, or even more so the no BLNR’s for 2018. If he’s really getting that little inventory, I’m surprised he’s still an AD.

PS: you were waiting for the BLRO in late 2017 when it wasn’t announced until March 2018?

I declined the BLNR when strong rumors for either a coke or pepsi emerged, and that is when I jumped first in line. He said not to worry with the BLNR he would always offer one to me. Yes end 2017.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by ALF61

I declined the BLNR when strong rumors for either a coke or pepsi emerged, and that is when I jumped first in line. He said not to worry with the BLNR he would always offer one to me. Yes end 2017.

[Paul_I]

I think this is an accurate summary of what I have heard as well. I personally don’t believe in a master strategy or conspiracy, just unprecedented global demand.

[DoctorA]

Only Rolex knows!!

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

Only Rolex knows!!

And they explicitly do NOT issue guidance to ADs.

Now, ADs tend to have more visibility than us, and so they can form their own conclusions based on what they receive now vs. historically... But it's all still conjecture.

[904VT]

Hopefully Rolex does send some more SS to their traditional markets and we don't get a bunch of updates in the Basels to come that we won't be able to get until the next recession.

[jimcameron]

There are so many great watches out there. If Rolex can't deliver, there are plenty that will.

[42itus]

But appreciate the input. I would think SS deliveries are related to sales volume as well. And so I guess it's possible that a small AD didn't receive any BLNR last year. The AD I go to said he sees at least one a month, and he doesn't see everything that comes in.

[envuks]

Are you dealing with the owner / CEO directly? What I've found at my AD is that customer selection of who gets offered in demand Rolex is often done at the top and details are not shared with staff, even managers.

When I picked up my 116500 this past fall, the CEO of my AD sent it to the store where I would pick it up. The store manager said she had only seen one 116500 before and hasn't seen a BLRO yet (this was in oct 2018).... while I believe her, my experience was that she wouldn't see them unless a customer (like me) wanted to pick it up in that specific store.

I could have purchased the 116500 without going to the store and they would have mailed it, but it was quicker to just go in.

The point that I am making is that unless you're dealing with the head /owner of the AD, you may be getting the truth from the AD employee (even a manager), but they might just not see the watches themselves.

Not sure if that's what is going on here or not, but figured I'd share


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[airchitect]

Seems all the redesigns and new movements are keeping things at a standstill.

[33JS]

No BLROs in '18? Yeah, right. He's letting you down gently...
I've had 3 stories on supply from 3 staff members of 1 AD in 2 weeks.

Its just business and managing expectations...

[FloridaRolexGuy23]

For what it’s worth, not my primary ad but one I deal with Out of state told me right hand up to god he hasn’t got a Pepsi or a Ss skydweller since they released. Gets Daytona’s, subs, hulk,blnr, root beer, deep seas.....but not a single Pepsi or skydweller. I called bullshit to his face n he looked at me and said I’m 100% serious and gonna speak to my rep about it. He then told me that when it comes in he’s buying it for himself cuz he’s been on the waiting list for a year. Honesty is the best policy.

[FloridaRolexGuy23]

*double post delete

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by FloridaRolexGuy23

For what it’s worth, not my primary ad but one I deal with Out of state told me right hand up to god he hasn’t got a Pepsi or a Ss skydweller since they released. Gets Daytona’s, subs, hulk,blnr, root beer, deep seas.....but not a single Pepsi or skydweller. I called bullshit to his face n he looked at me and said I’m 100% serious and gonna speak to my rep about it. He then told me that when it comes in he’s buying it for himself cuz he’s been on the waiting list for a year. Honesty is the best policy.

Visited a AD today...for business .They have seen one white and one blue SkyD.Never even seen a black SkyD.

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Visited a AD today...for business .They have seen one white and one blue SkyD.Never even seen a black SkyD.

Did you buy the Blue? I would have.

[Divingdeep87]

I got a new AD (never bought anything from him and he got 3 stores) , wrote to him in october that i wanted a BLRO in the beginning of march this year. He said that was possible and I was nr 15 on the list. Just got a mail that everything should work out and it was possible i should get the watch in the next 3 weeks.

Dont really think there is a shortage, just a higher demand.

[FloridaRolexGuy23]

Originally Posted by Nejmann

Dont really think there is a shortage, just a higher demand.

This 100%, i was at my ad yesterday when he was unpacking his shipment and he got 1 or 2 of all the in demand stuff minus a daytona/skydweller. The look on my face followed by “ ss shortage my ass” was priceless. He blatantly said after I pick out what I want that he was gonna go right to his list and in the next couple hours have the whole box sold. The days of watches sitting in cases or in safes r over they move n another box comes that box moves another box comes. He’s not the biggest ad so he has to show Rolex that he is a big dog by moving volume.

[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by FloridaRolexGuy23

This 100%, i was at my ad yesterday when he was unpacking his shipment and he got 1 or 2 of all the in demand stuff minus a daytona/skydweller. The look on my face followed by “ ss shortage my ass” was priceless. He blatantly said after I pick out what I want that he was gonna go right to his list and in the next couple hours have the whole box sold. The days of watches sitting in cases or in safes r over they move n another box comes that box moves another box comes. He’s not the biggest ad so he has to show Rolex that he is a big dog by moving volume.

Saw that and said the thing at my closest AD (a City with 250000 people) just couldn’t buy anything. Both Black and White daytona. He said he usually get a stainless steel daytona a month, bur didn’t know witch one. Offcause he is holding them for some bundle purchases..

[Daveclock]

Originally Posted by FloridaRolexGuy23

This 100%, i was at my ad yesterday when he was unpacking his shipment and he got 1 or 2 of all the in demand stuff minus a daytona/skydweller. The look on my face followed by “ ss shortage my ass” was priceless. He blatantly said after I pick out what I want that he was gonna go right to his list and in the next couple hours have the whole box sold. The days of watches sitting in cases or in safes r over they move n another box comes that box moves another box comes. He’s not the biggest ad so he has to show Rolex that he is a big dog by moving volume.

It would have been lovely to see all of those "rare" items!!
Whilst we hear of AD's displays being empty and that they "seem" to be doing no business, and or just keeping the shop clean - perhaps more business is done like this and they are quietly having a great retail time, unbeknown to us!?
Who knows, in this "game" of chinese whispers and disinformation.

Still hoping for the "call"

[AK797]

Originally Posted by FloridaRolexGuy23

This 100%, i was at my ad yesterday when he was unpacking his shipment and he got 1 or 2 of all the in demand stuff minus a daytona/skydweller. The look on my face followed by “ ss shortage my ass” was priceless. He blatantly said after I pick out what I want that he was gonna go right to his list and in the next couple hours have the whole box sold. The days of watches sitting in cases or in safes r over they move n another box comes that box moves another box comes. He’s not the biggest ad so he has to show Rolex that he is a big dog by moving volume.

Must be nice to work 2 hours a month and get paid for all of it, even lawyers are questioning their life choices now.