Thrilled to be seeing watches sit! Bumps away!

[ToneLok]

So many speculators cleaning out ADs and buying up every Sub, GMT, and Daytona that it was only a matter of time before the music stopped and they ended up without a chair. I just want a damn watch, so it’s rather satisfying to see the BLNRs and the rest now toiling away with multiple bumps. They are $9k watches, not $15K watches. Next bubble to burst will be the Nautilus. Will be a happy day to pay retail or try one on in an AD again.

[Sunny Arizona]

agree, current pricing with the gray dealers and AD issues are somewhat comical

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by Sunny Arizona

agree, current pricing with the gray dealers and AD issues are somewhat comical

Agree as well.

[maxymax]

Originally Posted by Sunny Arizona

agree, current pricing with the gray dealers and AD issues are somewhat comical

Can't agree more

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by Sunny Arizona

agree, current pricing with the gray dealers and AD issues are somewhat comical

100%...

I stoped playing the game almost 2 years ago .
Sitting still and enjoying what I have .

[peterpl]

Just be patient. I have a feeling its the start of the collapse.

None of these pieces are moving fast and not for their advertised prices these days.

[exador]

Takuya still seems to have no problems flogging Pepsis for $18k...

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by exador

Takuya still seems to have no problems flogging Pepsis for $18k...

He can price whatever he wants but the question is, is it going to move. And beside you can always haggle especially at this situation


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[maxymax]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

He can price whatever he wants but the question is, is it going to move. And beside you can always haggle especially at this situation

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Right. Plus we will never know what it sells for eventually.

[Overwound]

Originally Posted by exador

Takuya still seems to have no problems flogging Pepsis for $18k...

My father once told me there's an ass for every seat. His words ring true with me in situations like this.

[AJMarcus]

I don’t see it happening anytime soon guys. Why the enthusiasm? Last time I checked, today, AD shelves are empty and only the unlovable Rolexes are in the cases. And grays are selling watches at crazy high prices. Something I’m missing?

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

I don’t see it happening anytime soon guys. Why the enthusiasm? Last time I checked, today, AD shelves are empty and only the unlovable Rolexes are in the cases. And grays are selling watches at crazy high prices. Something I’m missing?

I think OP's point is that these grey watches aren't rapidly selling at listed price as they were a couple months ago, so this is perhaps indicia of a turning of the tide, if you will. Could be a logical fallacy to think this way, of course.

[77T]

Originally Posted by illiguy

I think OP's point is that these grey watches aren't rapidly selling at listed price as they were a couple months ago, so this is perhaps indicia of a turning of the tide, if you will. Could be a logical fallacy to think this way, of course.

When demand softens it could be for several reasons that range from “a to z”.

The a:
Almost all of the buyers willing to pay uplifted prices have the watches they wanted. Demand slows and grey prices will come down to the new equilibrium.

The z:
The economy drops significantly that will wash out the hot discretionary spenders for whatever personal reasons. Demand drops to very low level for grey market and MSRP returns to normal.

I’m not seeing any significant sign of “z”, maybe it’s more like “a” for now. I don’t wish “a” on anyone...


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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

I don’t see it happening anytime soon guys. Why the enthusiasm? Last time I checked, today, AD shelves are empty and only the unlovable Rolexes are in the cases. And grays are selling watches at crazy high prices. Something I’m missing?

One day the idiots paying these silly prices will run dry. They dumb. And there are only so many dumb people out there.

[Sub Capt.]

Nobody “needs” any of these watches and frankly if they were sitting in all the AD’s cases most would not care about them. Obviously some new model will be hot for a time....

T

[steve099]

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

[pepsiretail]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

Agreed.

[jimmytamp]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

I agree that Pepsi is still one of the hot watch in the market. There was a new 126710BLNR sold at $16,995 recently in the sales here at the forum and another one listed at $15900.

Cheers


Watch Lover

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

Agree on SkyD, would put DaytonaC right there with BLRO, if not higher.

[steve099]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Agree on SkyD, would put DaytonaC right there with BLRO, if not higher.

Apologies, forgot to add the DaytonaC. I purposely ignore the Daytona as they wear too small for my wrist. Really wish they made them in 42mm.

Even then only the white panda seems scarce compared to the black variant.

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

So you see a lot of Daytona 116500 sitting around without buyers? Readily available are they?


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[BobDyl]

Have to agree with the OP and was going to comment on this anyway. On the 8 stores that I follow regularly, inventory has been sitting around for a *long* time - weeks if not months for some desirable pieces. Things are without question getting softer. Is it summer doldrums or a big change? I'm guessing the latter as the world economy slows.

[pkincy]

We may not have a recession here, but Europe has problems as does the Emerging Markets and China growth is slowing dramatically. In the US the consumer is king and is holding up our GDP, but Rolex sells worldwide. The UK likely will suffer over the next year with Brexit, so smart people are keeping their money liquid not buying watches. That has to affect Rolex and other unnecessary purchases of luxury goods.

[Wrist King]

Originally Posted by pkincy

We may not have a recession here, but Europe has problems as does the Emerging Markets and China growth is slowing dramatically. In the US the consumer is king and is holding up our GDP, but Rolex sells worldwide. The UK likely will suffer over the next year with Brexit, so smart people are keeping their money liquid not buying watches. That has to affect Rolex and other unnecessary purchases of luxury goods.

This is just names of locations and some nonsense. EM wealth is growing rapidly as middle income consumer classes join the worlds shoppers. Mature markets like the UK will be affected if the currency collapses, nothing else.

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[Montremoi]

Originally Posted by Wrist King

This is just names of locations and some nonsense. EM wealth is growing rapidly as middle income consumer classes join the worlds shoppers. Mature markets like the UK will be affected if the currency collapses, nothing else.

The nonsense is to deny reality. Hence, Pkincy made a sensible comment.

[Aztro]

Every YouTube I follow that is either a dealer or has strong links to them say the price is dropping and many greys have way too much inventory. This could crunch pretty seriously over the next couple of months when coupled with everything else going on in the world right now. Every objective and subjective analysis seems to suggest hyper inflated prices should (and my punt is will) go down and not up. Is there any good news for the luxury sector right now? Can’t think of much...

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Aztro

Every YouTube I follow that is either a dealer or has strong links to them say the price is dropping and many greys have way too much inventory. This could crunch pretty seriously over the next couple of months when coupled with everything else going on in the world right now. Every objective and subjective analysis seems to suggest hyper inflated prices should (and my punt is will) go down and not up. Is there any good news for the luxury sector right now? Can’t think of much...

Yep pretty much the same words I'm hearing from all the gray dealers. Market is soft now. Inventory ain't moving and pieces sitting a long long time.

Hong Kong is also down the shitter now. The biggest market for Rolex is in big trouble and turmoil. No-one there is caring about Rolex at the moment. If mainland china troops invade which will happen if the riots get worse well watch market is gone down the drain there.

I'm seeing discounts in HK quite wide spread. zero discounts before.

[KenNethcole]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Yep pretty much the same words I'm hearing from all the gray dealers. Market is soft now. Inventory ain't moving and pieces sitting a long long time.

Hong Kong is also down the shitter now. The biggest market for Rolex is in big trouble and turmoil. No-one there is caring about Rolex at the moment. If mainland china troops invade which will happen if the riots get worse well watch market is gone down the drain there.

I'm seeing discounts in HK quite wide spread. zero discounts before.

If anything can affect pricing it's HK. Such a large market for not only Rolex but most brands.

[badass09]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Yep pretty much the same words I'm hearing from all the gray dealers. Market is soft now. Inventory ain't moving and pieces sitting a long long time.

Hong Kong is also down the shitter now. The biggest market for Rolex is in big trouble and turmoil. No-one there is caring about Rolex at the moment. If mainland china troops invade which will happen if the riots get worse well watch market is gone down the drain there.

I'm seeing discounts in HK quite wide spread. zero discounts before.

I just came back from HK yesterday and prices are still high and only 1 AD offered me 5% discount on a yg blue sub. But i bought from a grey dealer there and a explorer 1 from an AD.
Still no discounts and availability for ss professional models.

Saw tt ym and yg ym2 models only.. greys have a lot of inventory but pieces are not moving cos the majority of sales are from non HK buyers from them and cos of all the protests very few are flying there to buy watches.

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[pepsiretail]

Originally Posted by badass09

I just came back from HK yesterday and prices are still high and only 1 AD offered me 5% discount on a yg blue sub. But i bought from a grey dealer there and a explorer 1 from an AD.
Still no discounts and availability for ss professional models.

Saw tt ym and yg ym2 models only.. greys have a lot of inventory but pieces are not moving cos the majority of sales are from non HK buyers from them and cos of all the protests very few are flying there to buy watches

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All those Rolexes but not a single Pepsi