Vintage Market Prices

[RolexJNJ]

Are we currently in a Rolex vintage market price bubble? In other words, are prices too high now relative to value?

[AbsolutelyROLEX!]

No I wouldnt say so

[CrownMe]

Honestly i dont think so. I think fine examples of vintage Rolex will continue to rise in value every year. just my 2 cents

[goog53]

You get what you pay for. Top notch examples will always maintain or increase in value. Condition is EVERYTHING

[subtona]

maybe?
:)

[perpetualman88]

I think prices are getting a bit crazy

[Vincent65]

vintage Rolex prices are nuts, and so are those/we, that pay them!

[Viv Savage]

I really don't know but the best examples seem to be.

[petereoin]

I don't think so, but I can only dream that one day to own a 5510 (birth year) sub.

[dysondiver]

with money tight , and people selling off surplus , to put money back where its more need i would actually say quite the opposite ,,
there wont be any more big crowns or vintage explorer or milgaus about ,,, so i would say make the best of the prices ,, they are going to go up , and we will look back and talk about the days when things were still in reach .. 5510 and 16808 and the likes will be better than a pension..................
could be wrong though so dont call me from a cardboard box in thirty years time ,, lol

[Jason71]

It's the value of a dollar that is down. Have you been to the grocery store and tried to buy groceries? IMHO, Rolex watches are one of the few commodities that you can enjoy everyday that are a bit impervious to inflation. No bubble here IMHO.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by dysondiver

with money tight , and people selling off surplus , to put money back where its more need i would actually say quite the opposite ,,
there wont be any more big crowns or vintage explorer or milgaus about ,,, so i would say make the best of the prices ,, they are going to go up , and we will look back and talk about the days when things were still in reach .. 5510 and 16808 and the likes will be better than a pension..................
could be wrong though so dont call me from a cardboard box in thirty years time ,, lol

you think the 16808 will be in the same league as a 5510? that is a bold statement. im interested to hear your thoughts as to why.

[HL65]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

you think the 16808 will be in the same league as a 5510? that is a bold statement. im interested to hear your thoughts as to why.

Not in this lifetime or any other.

And I don't think he was saying that but was speaking overall about vintage Rolex.

[dysondiver]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

you think the 16808 will be in the same league as a 5510? that is a bold statement. im interested to hear your thoughts as to why.

maybe not in the same league as such , but ill bet they see the same percentage price rise , maybe even more , as a gold rolex will still be a goal for many , and vintage to boot ,, [ me included ] and a lot of folk that dont see the value in a high dollar stainless steel watch will be swayed by gold ,,, and as they arent making any more brand new vintage ,, i think they will become the desire of many , that will drive up the price ,,, and as the new stainless price rises , so will the price of vintage gold ,,, say a 16808 is tice the price of a brand new stainless one , and a 5510 is ten times the price ,, i think the rolex price rises will keep driving vintage prices up.
supply and demand ,,, only thing that will mess it up is when the first generation saphires get accepted as vintage ,,, but as thats maybe 25 years away yet ,,, plenty of room to move for a while yet... as i said ,, i could be wrong , but ,,, ill also wager that a well bought vintage will never loose money ,, [ unless you go swimming in it and it floods] so i think you can buy a good vintage , wear it for as long as you like , and be pretty much certain you will get ALL your money back , makes owning a rolex a very cheap proposition.


infact ,,, im going to go as far as to say ,,, money in rolexes pound for pound and looking at the return is a safer bet than money in the bank and if your lucky , it will be way better.,,, if not ill bet its still offering more than one or two percent pa over the next few years. and you get to keep an eye on your investment yourself. a gold strap investment.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by dysondiver

maybe not in the same league as such , but ill bet they see the same percentage price rise , maybe even more , as a gold rolex will still be a goal for many , and vintage to boot ,, [ me included ] and a lot of folk that dont see the value in a high dollar stainless steel watch will be swayed by gold ,,, and as they arent making any more brand new vintage ,, i think they will become the desire of many , that will drive up the price ,,, and as the new stainless price rises , so will the price of vintage gold ,,, say a 16808 is tice the price of a brand new stainless one , and a 5510 is ten times the price ,, i think the rolex price rises will keep driving vintage prices up.
supply and demand ,,, only thing that will mess it up is when the first generation saphires get accepted as vintage ,,, but as thats maybe 25 years away yet ,,, plenty of room to move for a while yet... as i said ,, i could be wrong , but ,,, ill also wager that a well bought vintage will never loose money ,, [ unless you go swimming in it and it floods] so i think you can buy a good vintage , wear it for as long as you like , and be pretty much certain you will get ALL your money back , makes owning a rolex a very cheap proposition.


infact ,,, im going to go as far as to say ,,, money in rolexes pound for pound and looking at the return is a safer bet than money in the bank and if your lucky , it will be way better.,,, if not ill bet its still offering more than one or two percent pa over the next few years. and you get to keep an eye on your investment yourself. a gold strap investment.

i tend to agree with you regarding gold Rolex, which is why I think 1803s are the most undervalued reference out there. especially heads plus president bands as many were melted down in the last 5 years. that being said, an all-gold rolex is extremely in your face. a lot of people arent comfortable wearing something so ostentatious. i think seriously limits the market for gold watches and could be why such references are "undervalued."

[dysondiver]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

i tend to agree with you regarding gold Rolex, which is why I think 1803s are the most undervalued reference out there. especially heads plus president bands as many were melted down in the last 5 years. that being said, an all-gold rolex is extremely in your face. a lot of people arent comfortable wearing something so ostentatious. i think seriously limits the market for gold watches and could be why such references are "undervalued."

thats a fair point , but i also think there will be a time to come when vintage gold will be looked on as old money , and it will be a plus not a minus on the overview ,, but its where the low , relativly speaking numbers of nipple dials out there will be at the premium ,,, too many presidents about, with too big a variation ,, and as much as i hate to say it , a scruffy plexi president at 4k is too cheap , ,,,

[dysondiver]

duplicate ,, sorry

[andromeda160]

Rolex knows what they are doing, they inflate prices of newer models to keep older model prices up, control the supply, control discounts ADs give, control the amount of ADs, spend millions on advertising. I was 18 when i finally scrounged up enough money to get a nice watch. I was planning on buying a breitling, and probably would've, had I not passed a giant billboard that said "live for greatness" with a datejust 2 with a giant rolex symbol next to it everyday on my way home from work. I don't like anything new really, and found a beautiful 1972 rolex oyster precision with gold lettering and it's defiantly my watch for life, I'm almost 20 now so in the past little less than 2 years I've owned a. 5501 air king 1968, yellow Schumacher speedmaster, 1965 omega sea master, tag heuer 2000 professional 1972 oyster precision,ww1 zenith trench watch with USA Air Force pilot Inscription. Paid $3150 total for all. Sold the air king, speedmaster, sea master, tag heuer for $3000. So this hobby has cost me $150 for my rolex oyster and ww1 zenith trench watch... Not bad for a colllege student

And to talk about where prices are heading as a young collector, I think they're going to go up, it's really bad because it sounds like what everyone was saying about houses in the early millenium. But there are a Finite number of vintage rolex watches regurdless of how many rolex makes from now on. They maintain value, gain slightly over time. I've collected coins since I was able to walk, and you never see people collecting high mintage coins. 50's-early 70's there were around 4million rolexes made, where as 2008-2014 there were the same amount made. Not to mention all the watches damaged destroyed and lost throughout the years you end up with an even smaller pool of watches, Asian markets are going to continue to grow and further fuel the watch industry young Americans and Europeans alike have a fascination with watches as well and with rolex media blasted into the minds of pretty much everyone worldwide, there prices are going to continue to rise

[jfmiii]

just like art, cars, real estate, and stocks, vintage watches have been the beneficiary of easy money being printed all over the world. this money has found its way into many different asset classes. while i think your run of the mill Subs, GMTs, etc are not overvalued, there are some references that are. $30,000 for an early 1980s Daytona? Come on. That being said, your highly liquid markets for standard 5513s, 1675s, 1680s, etc will provide store of value and will at least keep up with inflation, imo. Unless you are buying a really rare reference, I'd be weary of paying $30k for something like the aforementioned 6263. Those feel very bubble back-y.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by RolexJNJ

Are we currently in a Rolex vintage market price bubble? In other words, are prices too high now relative to value?

No, because there are no more "vintage" Rolexes being made, so the supply is dwindling and the demand will continue to remain high. Therefore prices will continue to rise, especially for the finest examples.

[Scottie]

This may be a dumb question. When does a Rolex become vintage what year?

[SMD]

Nothing is immune from demand shocks. If we were to have another financial crisis like 2008 demand will drop and selling prices will drop. Doesn't mean we are in a bubble, just that discretionary luxury items are the first purchases to be postponed in that kind of environment.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

[Vincent65]

Originally Posted by CSG

Good point, Scottie. To me, most old used watches are old used watches. That some are willing to pay big bucks for a worn watch and call it *patina* is the same craziness we've seen with guitars.

Doesn't affect me personally but I don't get it. I don't want to wear a beat-up watch and I don't want to play a beat up guitar. I also don't want to drive a beat up car.

I think most of this is the stuff of internet forum fever.

Hmm… what about the antiques market? That's been around for quite a while...

[Cc1966]

Prices are trending upward with no stopping in sight. No bubble ~ just supply and demand seeking it's course.

[jfmiii]

ok, now onto the next logical question since we are talking about direction of vintage Rolex prices in coming years.....

If you had $10k to spend today, what would you buy and why?

[dysondiver]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

ok, now onto the next logical question since we are talking about direction of vintage Rolex prices in coming years.....

If you had $10k to spend today, what would you buy and why?

ah now you need another 54,000 dollars to answer that question ,,,, [ total , 64,000 question ]
my bet , 16808 best you can find , or gmt , nipples and plastic. but its going to take a few dollars more ,,, even if im wrong , you will have a nice watch .

[StaceeJaxx]

No, but some models are creeping back up to the mid-2000s prices. Which is a semi-bubble on certain segments IMHO

[joe100]

Vintage Rolex is in. Couple that with the fact that ever plexi Sub, GMT, etc that ever will be made, has been made, and you have the current climate. The spare parts are dwindling as well.

[CrownMe]

Originally Posted by CSG

Good point, Scottie. To me, most old used watches are old used watches. That some are willing to pay big bucks for a worn watch and call it *patina* is the same craziness we've seen with guitars.

Doesn't affect me personally but I don't get it. I don't want to wear a beat-up watch and I don't want to play a beat up guitar. I also don't want to drive a beat up car.

I think most of this is the stuff of internet forum fever.

that fever sure has been going around a while.

[bluemartinifan]

This is a solid relevant topic that IMO parallels other high end collecting industries.
Does pricing for the finest work from masters like Matisse and Picasso fluctuate and spike over time - sure - are the "best, most highly coveted works of art from these masters always in demand and appreciating in price - yes...

Does pricing for the finest original Mopar, Chevy or Ford muscle cars from the 60s fluctuate and spike over time - sure - are the "best, most highly coveted original muscle cars always in demand and appreciating in price - yes...

As vintage Rolex collectors, it takes us time to "graduate" up to paying for finer, pristine, more expensive pieces - patiently searching for them out of private collections. These rarer watches will IMO provide a positive ROI over time (unless you bought at an insanely high over the market price).
The "mass" for sale vintage pieces that are available on all the forum sites may not be at a bubble - but will be harder to sell and harder to realize ROI as there are just so many of these pieces currently (and likely in the future) to be available.