What does the future hold for rare Rolex models?

[Gabe218]

What does the future hold for rare Rolex models?

With Rolex producing between 700 and 800 thousand watches annually and collectors keeping watches in mint condition in the hope of them one day becoming a rarity, will we ever see today's rolex soar in price and desirability as those have in the past?

Will we ever have another submariner comex, Paul Newman dial or 007's 6538?

If so, which rolexes do you think are headed that way? Which are those worth investing in and why?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Gabe218

Will we ever have another submariner comex, Paul Newman dial or 007's 6538?

If so, which rolexes do you think are headed that way? Which are those worth investing in and why?

No.

Watches are not investments. That someone got lucky is not the basis for this line of thinking.

[Gabe218]

I would disagree. Watches certainly are in investment. When buying a Rolex I look for something that will either stay the same in value or go up. I would never buy a watch (unless at retail) knowing it will drop in value.


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[jolimont]

Originally Posted by Gabe218

I would disagree. Watches certainly are in investment. When buying a Rolex I look for something that will either stay the same in value or go up. I would never buy a watch (unless at retail) knowing it will drop in value.


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so you only collect vintage sports models? (serious)

[peterskinner]

Watches are not an investment. But the modern Rolex to appreciate could indeed be the one no-one collects now. That's the Rolex Cellini Prince. Probably the last Rolex ever to feature a manual wind, rectangular case, own dedicated movement, open back and a history which goes back before the first Oyster.
Not a sales success. But unique in modern Rolex history. And, I forgot to mention, a beautifully decorated movement.
Give it twenty years and it could be the dark horse in investment terms. It is utterly unlike any other modern Rolex.
Or it could be a near forgotten footnote in Rolex history...that's the thing. No-one ever knows the future.

[Gabe218]

Originally Posted by jolimont

so you only collect vintage sports models? (serious)

No. Hence I put "(unless at retail)" referring to buying new

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Gabe218

I would disagree. Watches certainly are in investment. When buying a Rolex I look for something that will either stay the same in value or go up. I would never buy a watch (unless at retail) knowing it will drop in value.

Some people view watches as investments, but they can't compete with financial investments on a risk-adjusted basis. If they could, hedge funds would be buying and holding watches.

I think most collectors enjoy the buying process and owning the watches. If a collector is motivated by purely financial reasons, then he/she should look into a different asset class

[BLACKHORSE 6]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Some people view watches as investments, but they can't compete with financial investments on a risk-adjusted basis. If they could, hedge funds would be buying and holding watches.

I think most collectors enjoy the buying process and owning the watches. If a collector is motivated by purely financial reasons, then he/she should look into a different asset class

This

[Dirt]

Great question and sure to have many and varied responses.

Personally I think those magical days are over as it belonged to an entirely different world.
As far as perceived watch status is concerned the only one I see in the Rolex line up with any credibility going forward is the DSSD.
This is due to the Comex Connection, and the fact that the Ringlock technology was used from a regular production model, to make an up-scaled watch that could withstand the pressure of depth at the bottom of the Mariana Trench during the James Cameron dive and perform flawlessly.

The JC model may attain similar status as the Single or Double Red????

[Gabe218]

Originally Posted by Dirt

Great question and sure to have many and varied responses.



Personally I think those magical days are over as it belonged to an entirely different world.

As far as perceived watch status is concerned the only one I see in the Rolex line up with any credibility going forward is the DSSD.

This is due to the Comex Connection, and the fact that the Ringlock technology was used from a regular production model, which was used to make an up-scaled watch that could withstand the pressure of depth at the bottom of the Mariana Trench during the James Cameron dive and perform flawlessly.

Great point. I also think the 168000 transitional submariner has a shot as it was only produced for 9 months. It certainly doesn't get the recognition currently however.

[Dyim]

DSSD blue.

[gtnator]

Originally Posted by Dyim

DSSD blue.

x2

[ref1655]

Originally Posted by Gabe218

With Rolex producing between 700 and 800 thousand watches annually and collectors keeping watches in mint condition in the hope of them one day becoming a rarity, will we ever see today's rolex soar in price and desirability as those have in the past?

with those kind of production numbers, it's pretty difficult to fathom.

Originally Posted by Dirt

Personally I think those magical days are over as it belonged to an entirely different world.

+1 and another factor to keep in mind...some of those so-called 'collectible' Rolexes were models (like the one on my wrist) that didn't sell particularly well when they first came out & were either discontinued and/or re-styled.

there is no accurate predictability of what collectors are going to seek or value years down the road. human beings are mercurial when it comes to this kind of stuff.

rarity + high demand = viable collectability.

rarity + no demand = who cares?

high-production + high demand = today's Rolex & not much in terms of potential collectability.

moral of the story...just wear & enjoy.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by ref1655

with those kind of production numbers, it's pretty difficult to fathom.



+1 and another factor to keep in mind...some of those so-called 'collectible' Rolexes were models (like the one on my wrist) that didn't sell particularly well when they first came out & were either discontinued and/or re-styled.

there is no accurate predictability of what collectors are going to seek or value years down the road. human beings are mercurial when it comes to this kind of stuff.

rarity + high demand = viable collectability.

rarity + no demand = who cares?

high-production + high demand = today's Rolex & not much in terms of potential collectability.

moral of the story...just wear & enjoy.

Agreed.
Just wear and enjoy what you like. Maybe hope for the best as well.
The other thing is one needs to hang onto the watch long enough for it's desirability to rise. Some of us may not be alive long enough to reap any benefit anyway
Then again the world is moving at an ever increasing pace due to technology.
Perhaps we will indeed be alive to reap the benefits of our chosen watches increasing desirability?

Regarding the high production + high demand scenario.
It must be kept in context as everything worth while just about falls under that category these days.
The context is in relation to the world's population. The numbers of everything is going up exponentially.
Also, previously under developed counties have living standards and aspirations that are rising.
This in turn potentially increases demand for desirable high end or luxury items.

As already stated by others.
It remains to be seen what is collectable in the future.
There is no crystal ball. We can only hope

[05carbondrz]

The Vintage Rolex Watches where Tool Watches,They where meant to be used and they where.Modern Rolex Watches are more of a status symbol and thus they are babied and the box and papers are kept.I just don't see many of the new Models being collectors items,Except maybe the 16610LV Sub 50th Anniversary flat 4 first series.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by 05carbondrz

The Vintage Rolex Watches where Tool Watches,They where meant to be used and they where.Modern Rolex Watches are more of a status symbol and thus they are babied and the box and papers are kept.I just don't see many of the new Models being collectors items,Except maybe the 16610LV Sub 50th Anniversary flat 4 first series.

Good point.
I had forgotten all about that model.
Stupid me I had one and moved it on because I wasn't interested in wearing it

It was an early flat "4" model with all the box, papers and anchor which I bought used and in superb condition.
The only problem was it had the bezel changed with a service replacement due to the original being scratched up and dented. The service replacement bezel was a later version with the pointed "4".

I had it for about 3 years and sold it for a very nice amount more than I paid
I suspect an original flat "4" bezel alone for the Kermit/Anniversary Sub would be disproportionately worth more than the watch.

Perhaps a 50th anniversary Sea-Dweller could be a good one to get if it ever eventuates?

[rod727]

Like Most things that are collectable you never know what is going to rise in value......there will always be collectables but trying to pick which ones.....now that's another story

[J!m]

That ship has sailed.

The stuff that shoots up in value is the stuff no one collected. First gen Star Wars figures. Second an so on are worthless because everyone bought them and packed them away hoping they'd put their kids through college.

A friggin IRA is a better investment.

[Justinmg]

Originally Posted by J!m

That ship has sailed.

The stuff that shoots up in value is the stuff no one collected. First gen Star Wars figures. Second an so on are worthless because everyone bought them and packed them away hoping they'd put their kids through college.

A friggin IRA is a better investment.

X2 I bought my watch to wear and enjoy and hand down to my kid one day

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by J!m

That ship has sailed.

The stuff that shoots up in value is the stuff no one collected. First gen Star Wars figures. Second an so on are worthless because everyone bought them and packed them away hoping they'd put their kids through college.

A friggin IRA is a better investment.

Pretty much my thinking with this. So long as Rolex continues to increase prices consistently, I think most Rolex watches over time will probably have a slight appreciation (this doesn't take into consideration the cost of ownership).
That said, seeing a certain model skyrocket is probably not likely as most are mass produced for a long time, so they are readily available.
To the point above....it's like baseball cards. Once everyone starts collecting them and keeping them in mint condition, the collectibility (value) is diminished.

[cpa4s]

just like porsches are now; only a few of the small production cars will see much in appreciation imo.

[Etschell]

I think the milgauss and the 14060m will be moderns that appreciate. Especially the white face mg

[Mr. K]

Agreed, not an investment, but I do hope my watches retain a fair amount of value. Or at least depreciate slowly.

But I'm ok with that because I get enjoyment from them. Most of my Rolexes I sold I at least broke even when selling, and I got to enjoy them for a time.

But if you take "investment" out of the equation and go back to the OP, hard to think of a watch that will become rare.

The OQ is rare in the production run, but not too valuable as compared to other collectible watches.

[Mrkamir9]

I believe rare models will always be available for the hunt... Sure there are models that are on different levels that will sky rocket into the hundreds of thousand a couple decades from now, I guess it all depends on how rare we talkin!?

I believe the Paul Newman's / 6538 will just go up and up...

I'm more curious to see what happens to pieces like the BLNR/ Zenith Daytonas/ 116610V's/ 16600's/ etc... When these become vintage/discontinued (if we are fortunate enough to live to see these days!). I'm 29 so these are the watches from my generation so to speak, How crazy would it be to think if BLNR's were going for 30k forty years from now!

For me watches are investments, I don't buy a watch for that exact reason but I always keep it in mind in a sense. I think we are also drawn to these watches naturally without noticing as well. I do buy watches ultimately to enjoy, but it's good to know if something financially serious happens I can always sell a watch to make up. Hopefully that will never happen because I couldn't decide which one to let go!!! Great topic by the way!

Mark




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[2Redbulls]

I suppose I'm also in the camp of wear it and enjoy versus worry about which model has potential to be a collectors item. That being said, there are a few things worth considering if we're going to hypothesize. While the number of watches are huge by todays standards, remember that the population is growing. The population alive at the golden age for Rolex's was probably half of what it is now but in the next 30 years the population will grow quicker. So these large numbers of watches will get absorbed easily, especially certain models that will be specially rare or unique compared to the most popular watches of today.

So which ones? Well, those that are unique, precious and limited. DSSD yes, precious metal Daytona's, hell, all PM's, Skydwellers, maybe a SS Daytona but let me propose another model. The YMII...now hear me out before you scuff at the idea. The YMII compared to Submariners, GMT's or Datejust is a "limited edition". No one knows the real numbers, but I'm guessing Rolex sells 1 YMII for every 100 Subs. Plus the design and mechanical aspects will make people appreciate the watch even more. People will make a big deal over the size in comparison to other models of this era. They will talk about the movement which is based on a 4130 Daytona but modified with a flyback counter. The first Rolex where the bezel is used to activate the movement, plus the fact that the watch had a unique functioning count down timer for regatta racing which will seem so eccentric that collectors will be tripping over each other. ;)

In all seriousness, I do think the YMII has a shot for the reasons stated.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by 2Redbulls

I suppose I'm also in the camp of wear it and enjoy versus worry about which model has potential to be a collectors item. That being said, there are a few things worth considering if we're going to hypothesize. While the number of watches are huge by todays standards, remember that the population is growing. The population alive at the golden age for Rolex's was probably half of what it is now but in the next 30 years the population will grow quicker. So these large numbers of watches will get absorbed easily, especially certain models that will be specially rare or unique compared to the most popular watches of today.

So which ones? Well, those that are unique, precious and limited. DSSD yes, precious metal Daytona's, hell, all PM's, Skydwellers, maybe a SS Daytona but let me propose another model. The YMII...now hear me out before you scuff at the idea. The YMII compared to Submariners, GMT's or Datejust is a "limited edition". No one knows the real numbers, but I'm guessing Rolex sells 1 YMII for every 100 Subs. Plus the design and mechanical aspects will make people appreciate the watch even more. People will make a big deal over the size in comparison to other models of this era. They will talk about the movement which is based on a 4130 Daytona but modified with a flyback counter. The first Rolex where the bezel is used to activate the movement, plus the fact that the watch had a unique functioning count down timer for regatta racing which will seem so eccentric that collectors will be tripping over each other. ;)

In all seriousness, I do think the YMII has a shot for the reasons stated.

There you go.
That's another one to add to the list for some very good reasons

[rollerballer]

Other than rare, it has to:-
1) Look really nice and cool and,
2) really unpopular

I could not think of any the fits the above at the moment.

[fskywalker]

Rolex depreciate over time less than other brands.... that means you can enjoy a watch and if need to sell it / flip hit won't take a big hit as with other brands.

[japenney]

Probably nothing. Maybe attractive looking discontinued PM models.

[hoanghung45]

99% of us buy watch(es) for enjoyment, not investment
I don't know how that 'Paul Newman period' is going to happen again when millions of people around the world wearing the same model